Growth prediction model for abdominal aortic aneurysms.

BACKGROUND: The most relevant determinant in scheduling monitoring intervals for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is maximum diameter. The aim of the study was to develop a statistical model that takes into account specific characteristics of AAA growth distributions such as between-patient variability as well as within-patient variability across time, and allows probabilistic statements to be made regarding expected AAA growth. METHODS: CT angiography (CTA) data from patients monitored at 6-month intervals with maximum AAA diameters at baseline between 30 and 66 mm were used to develop the model. By extending the model of geometric Brownian motion with a log-normal random effect, a stochastic growth model was developed. An additional set of ultrasound-based growth data was used for external validation. RESULTS: The study data included 363 CTAs from 87 patients, and the external validation set comprised 390 patients. Internal and external cross-validation showed that the stochastic growth model allowed accurate description of the distribution of aneurysm growth. Median relative growth within 1 year was 4.1 (5-95 per cent quantile 0.5-13.3) per cent. Model calculations further resulted in relative 1-year growth of 7.0 (1.0-16.4) per cent for patients with previously observed rapid 1-year growth of 10 per cent, and 2.6 (0.3-8.3) per cent for those with previously observed slow growth of 1 per cent. The probability of exceeding a threshold of 55 mm was calculated to be 1.78 per cent at most when adhering to the current RESCAN guidelines for rescreening intervals. An online calculator based on the fitted model was made available. CONCLUSION: The stochastic growth model was found to provide a reliable tool for predicting AAA growth.

Metastatic disease and major adverse cardiovascular events preceding diagnosis are the main determinants of disease-specific survival of pheochromocytoma/paraganglioma: long-term follow-up of 303 patients.

Purpose: The natural history in unselected cohorts of patients with pheochromocytoma/ paraganglioma (PPGL) followed for a period >10 years remains limited. We aimed to describe baseline characteristics and outcome of a large cohort and to identify predictors of shorter survival. Methods: This retrospective single-center study included 303 patients with newly diagnosed PPGL from 1968 to December 31, 2023, in 199 prospectively supplemented since July 2020. Mean follow-up was 11.4 (range 0.3-50) years, germline genetic analyses were available in 92.1%. The main outcome measures were overall (OAS), disease-specific (DSS), recurrence-free (RFS) survival and predictors of shorter survival evaluated in patients with metastases at first diagnosis (n=12), metastatic (n=24) and nonmetastatic (n=33) recurrences and without evidence of PPGL after first surgery (n=234). Results: Age at study begin was 49.4 ± 16.3 years. There were 72 (23.8%) deaths, 15 (5.0%), 29 (9.6%) and 28 (9.2%) due to PPGL, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and malignant or other diseases, respectively. Median OAS, DSS1 (tumor-related) and DSS2 (DSS1 and death caused by CVD) were 4.8, 5.9 and 5.2 years (patients with metastases at first diagnosis), 21.2, 21.2 and 19.9 years, and 38.0, undefined and 38.0 years (patients with metastatic and with nonmetastatic recurrences, respectively). Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) preceded the first diagnosis in 15% (n=44). Shorter DSS2 correlated with older age (P ≤ 0.001), male sex (P ≤ 0.02), MACE (P ≤ 0.01) and primary metastases (P<0.0001, also for DSS1). Conclusion: The clinical course of unselected patients with PPGL is rather benign. Survival rates remain high for decades, unless there are MACE before diagnosis or metastatic disease.

Comparing maximum diameter and volume when assessing the growth of small abdominal aortic aneurysms using longitudinal CTA data: cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is currently based on serial measurements of maximum aortic diameter. Additional assessment of aneurysm volume has previously been proposed to possibly improve growth prediction and treatment decisions. To evaluate the use of supplementing volume measurements, the authors aimed to characterise the growth distribution of AAA volume and to compare the growth rates of the maximum diameter and volume at the patient level. METHODS: Maximum diameter and volume were monitored every 6 months in 84 patients with small AAAs, with a total of 331 computed tomographic angiographies (with initial maximum diameters of 30-68 mm). A previously developed statistical growth model for AAAs was applied to assess the growth distribution of volume and to compare individual growth rates for volume and for maximum diameter. RESULTS: The median (25-75% quantile) expansion in volume was 13.4 (6.5-24.7) % per year. Cube root transformed volume and maximum diameter showed a closely linear association with a within-subject correlation of 0.77. At the surgery threshold maximum diameter of 55 mm, the median (25-75% quantile) volume was 132 (103-167) ml. In 39% of subjects, growth rates for volume and maximum diameter were equivalent, in 33% growth was faster in volume and in 27% growth was faster in maximum diameter. CONCLUSION: At the population level, volume and maximum diameter show a substantial association such that the average volume is approximately proportional to the average maximum diameter raised to a power of three. At the individual level, however, in the majority of patient's AAAs grow at different pace in different dimensions. Hence, closer monitoring of aneurysms with sub-critical diameter but suspicious morphology may benefit from complementing maximum diameter by volume or related measurements.

MetAAA trial patients show superior quality of life compared to patients under regular surveillance for small AAA: a single-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a multifactorial vascular disease associated with high morbidity and mortality. Currently, surgical intervention is the only treatment option, and there is no drug therapy available for AAA. Hence, surveillance of AAA until indication for surgery may impact patient quality of life (QoL). There is a paucity of high-quality observational data on health status and QoL, particularly among AAA patients participating in randomized controlled trials. The objective of this study was to compare the QoL scores of AAA patients on surveillance to those of AAA patients enrolled in the MetAAA trial. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Overall, 54 MetAAA trial patients and 23 AAA patients under regular surveillance for small AAA (part of a longitudinal monitoring study) were asked to complete three established and validated (in total 561 longitudinally collected) QoL questionnaires: the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), the Aneurysm Symptom Rating Questionnaire (ASRQ), and the Aneurysm-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire (ADQoL). RESULTS: A superior health status and QoL was found in AAA patients participating in the MetAAA trial compared to AAA patients under regular surveillance. In detail, MetAAA trial patients showed superior general health perception ( P =0.012), higher energy level ( P =0.036) as well as enhanced emotional well-being ( P =0.044) and fewer limitations due to general malaise ( P =0.021), which was subsequently reflected in an overall superior current QoL score ( P =0.039) compared to AAA patients under regular surveillance. CONCLUSION: AAA patients enrolled in the MetAAA trial showed superior health status and QoL compared to AAA patients under regular surveillance.

Polymorphisms in the IL-6 and TNF-α gene are associated with an increased risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: An abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease of the aging population that is associated with inflammation and the cellular immune response. To investigate the influence of interleukin (IL)-6 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the risk of AAA formation and progression, the frequency of AAA and its associated risk factors were determined. METHOD: Four SNPs in the IL-6 (-174G/C, rs1800795; -572G/C, rs1800796) and TNF-α (-238G/A, rs361525; -308G/A, rs1800629) genes were studied by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) in patients with AAA and healthy volunteers. The mRNA expression and plasma IL-6 and TNF-α levels were also determined. RESULTS: A mutation detected in at least one allele of the IL-6 -174G/C SNP was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of AAA occurrence (OR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.15-3.76; p = 0.014, in the dominant model). An increased risk of AAA incidence among heterozygous carriers of the TNF-α - 308G/A genotype was observed (OR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.17-3.62; p = 0.011, in the overdominant model). The wild-type genotypes of the IL-6 -174G/C and the TNF-α -308G/A SNPs coexisted more frequently in healthy subjects than in AAA patients and was associated with decreased risk of AAA (p < 0.001). Moreover, elevated levels of IL-6 and TNF-α were associated with an increased risk of hypertension (p < 0.001 and p = 0.022, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The IL-6 -174G/C and the TNF-α -238G/A gene polymorphisms are associated with an increased risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm development.

Complement Factor C5a Is Increased in Blood of Patients with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm and Has Prognostic Potential for Aneurysm Growth.

In this observational case-control study, circulating levels of complement factors C3a and C5a and leukotriene B4 (LTB4) were analysed in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients regarding their association with diagnosis and prognosis. Serum C5a was significantly raised in AAA patients compared to healthy controls-median 84.5 ng/ml (IQR = 37.5 ng/ml) vs. 67.7 ng/ml (IQR = 26.2 ng/ml), p = 0.007-but was not elevated in patients with athero-occlusive disease. Serum C5a levels correlated significantly with the increase in maximum AAA diameter over the following 6 months (r = 0.319, p = 0.021). The median growth in the lowest quartile of C5a (< 70 ng/ml) was 50% less compared to the highest C5a quartile (> 101 ng/ml): 1.0 mm/6 months (IQR = 0.8 mm) vs. 2.0 mm/6 months (IQR = 1.5 mm), p = 0.014. A log-linear mixed model predicted AAA expansion based on current diameter and C5a level. To our knowledge, this is the first study linking complement activation, in particular C5a serum level, with AAA progression.

Histone citrullination as a novel biomarker and target to inhibit progression of abdominal aortic aneurysms.

Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). This study has addressed the notion that NET components might serve as AAA biomarkers or novel targets of AAA therapy. Thus, parameters of neutrophil activation and NET formation were measured in plasma. Their diagnostic marker value was explored in 41 AAA patients and 38 healthy controls. The NET parameter citrullinated histone H3 (citH3) was then validated in 63 AAA patients and 63 controls matched for cardiovascular disease. The prognostic marker potential was investigated in 54 observation periods of AAA growth over 6 months. NETs were further assessed in conditioned medium and sections of aortic tissue. CitH3 was found to be increased in blood (median 362 vs 304 ng/mL, P = 0.004) and aortic tissue (50 vs 1.5 ng/mg, P < 0.001) of AAA patients compared to healthy controls and accumulated in the intraluminal thrombus (629 ng/mg). The diagnostic potential of citH3 ranged at 0.705 area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and was validated with the independent sample set. Furthermore, plasma citH3 predicted AAA growth over the next 6 months (AUROC: 0.707, P = 0.015) and dropped significantly after surgical aneurysm repair. In an angiotensin II - based mouse model of experimental AAA, an inhibitor of histone citrullination was applied to block NET formation and AAA progression. Of note, further growth of an established aneurysm was prevented in mice treated with the NET inhibitor (P = 0.040). In conclusion, histone citrullination represents a promising AAA biomarker and potential therapeutic target to control disease progression.