Baseline predictors of treatment outcome in Internet-based alcohol interventions: a recursive partitioning analysis alongside a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Internet-based interventions are seen as attractive for harmful users of alcohol and lead to desirable clinical outcomes. Some participants will however not achieve the desired results. In this study, harmful users of alcohol have been partitioned in subgroups with low, intermediate or high probability of positive treatment outcome, using recursive partitioning classification tree analysis. METHODS: Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of two Internet-based alcohol interventions. The main outcome variable was treatment response, a dichotomous outcome measure for treatment success. Candidate predictors for the classification analysis were first selected using univariate regression. Next, a tree decision model to classify participants in categories with a low, medium and high probability of treatment response was constructed using recursive partitioning software. RESULTS: Based on literature review, 46 potentially relevant baseline predictors were identified. Five variables were selected using univariate regression as candidate predictors for the classification analysis. Two variables were found most relevant for classification and selected for the decision tree model: 'living alone', and 'interpersonal sensitivity'. Using sensitivity analysis, the robustness of the decision tree model was supported. CONCLUSIONS: Harmful alcohol users in a shared living situation, with high interpersonal sensitivity, have a significantly higher probability of positive treatment outcome. The resulting decision tree model may be used as part of a decision support system but is on its own insufficient as a screening algorithm with satisfactory clinical utility. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register (Cochrane Collaboration): NTR-TC1155.

Economic evaluation of internet-based interventions for harmful alcohol use alongside a pragmatic randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Internet interventions with and without therapist support have been found to be effective treatment options for harmful alcohol users. Internet-based therapy (IT) leads to larger and longer-lasting positive effects than Internet-based self-help (IS), but it is also more costly to provide. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost effectiveness and cost utility of Internet-based interventions for harmful use of alcohol through the assessment of the incremental cost effectiveness of IT compared with IS. METHODS: This study was performed in a substance abuse treatment center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. We collected data over the years 2008-2009. A total of 136 participants were included, 70 (51%) were female, and mean age was 41.5 (SD 9.83) years. Reported alcohol consumption and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores indicated harmful drinking behavior at baseline. We collected self-reported outcome data prospectively at baseline and 6 months after randomization. Cost data were extracted from the treatment center's cost records, and sex- and age-specific mean productivity cost data for the Netherlands. RESULTS: The median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated at €3683 per additional treatment responder and €14,710 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. At a willingness to pay €20,000 for 1 additional QALY, IT had a 60% likelihood of being more cost effective than IS. Sensitivity analyses attested to the robustness of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: IT offers better value for money than IS and might therefore be considered as a treatment option, either as first-line treatment in a matched-care approach or as a second-line treatment in the context of a stepped-care approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register NTR-TC1155; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=1155 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6AqnV4eTU).

Symptom networks in patients with substance use disorders.

BACKGROUND: Reciprocity between symptoms of psychiatric disorders is increasingly recognized to contribute to their chronicity. In substance use disorders (SUD) little is known on reciprocal interactions between symptoms. We applied network analyses to study these interactions. METHODS: We analyzed 11 DSM-IV / DSM-5 criteria for SUD for the most prevalent substances in addiction care (alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, stimulants, and opioids) in a sample of 10,832 SUD patients in treatment. First, we estimated an overall symptom network. Second, we compared symptom networks between the different substances. Finally, we tested differences in symptom networks between DSM-IV and DSM-5. RESULTS: In the overall symptom network for SUD patients the most central symptom was: "spending substantial amount of the day obtaining, using, or recovering from substance use". The symptoms "giving up or cutting back on important activities because of use" and "repeated usage causes or contributes to an inability to meet important obligations", were the symptoms that influenced each other the most. Networks differed between substances both in global strength and structure, especially regarding the position of "use despite health or interpersonal problems". Networks based on DSM-5 criteria differed moderately from DSM-IV, mainly because "craving" was more central in the DSM-5 network than "legal problems" in DSM-IV. CONCLUSIONS: Network analyses can identify core symptoms of SUD that could maintain the disease processes in SUD. Future studies should address whether targeting these core symptoms with precedence, might help to break through the addictive process.

Smoking cessation quitlines in Europe: matching services to callers' characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Telephone quitlines offer a wide range of services to callers, including advice and counsel, and information on pharmacotherapy for smoking cessation. But, little is known about what specific quitline services are offered to smokers and whether these services are appropriately matched to characteristics of smokers. This study examines how quitline services are matched to callers' level of addiction, educational level, stage-of-change with quitting, and whether they are referred by a doctor or other health professional. METHODS: Between February 2005 and April 2006, 3,585 callers to seven European quitlines responded to our survey. During the course of and immediately after the call, quitline counsellors collected descriptive data on callers' characteristics and the services they used. We then conducted four logistic regression analyses to examine the relationship between quitline services and the four caller characteristics. RESULTS: Forty three percent of all callers received information on pharmacotherapy--most often nicotine patches and nicotine gum--from the counsellor. As we predicted, these callers were the heavy smokers. There was a direct correlation between the length of the conversations between the counsellor and the educational level of the smoker: the lower the education of the smoker, the shorter the call. However, we found no significant association between any other type of service and the educational level of caller. We also found a correlation between the smoker's stage of quitting and the type of advice a counsellor gives. Smokers in the action stage of quitting were more likely to receive advice (in two quitlines) or counselling (in two quitlines) than those in the preparation stage, who were less likely to be referred (in three quitlines). Very few of the total number of calls (10.7%) were from referrals by health professionals. Referred callers were more likely to receive counselling, but this was found only in four of seven quitlines. CONCLUSION: Most of the services quitlines offer to smokers favour heavy smokers and those at a more advanced stage of cessation, but not based on their educational level. Thus, we recommend that European quitlines extend and tailor their services to include less-educated smokers.

Missing data approaches in eHealth research: simulation study and a tutorial for nonmathematically inclined researchers.

BACKGROUND: Missing data is a common nuisance in eHealth research: it is hard to prevent and may invalidate research findings. OBJECTIVE: In this paper several statistical approaches to data "missingness" are discussed and tested in a simulation study. Basic approaches (complete case analysis, mean imputation, and last observation carried forward) and advanced methods (expectation maximization, regression imputation, and multiple imputation) are included in this analysis, and strengths and weaknesses are discussed. METHODS: The dataset used for the simulation was obtained from a prospective cohort study following participants in an online self-help program for problem drinkers. It contained 124 nonnormally distributed endpoints, that is, daily alcohol consumption counts of the study respondents. Missingness at random (MAR) was induced in a selected variable for 50% of the cases. Validity, reliability, and coverage of the estimates obtained using the different imputation methods were calculated by performing a bootstrapping simulation study. RESULTS: In the performed simulation study, the use of multiple imputation techniques led to accurate results. Differences were found between the 4 tested multiple imputation programs: NORM, MICE, Amelia II, and SPSS MI. Among the tested approaches, Amelia II outperformed the others, led to the smallest deviation from the reference value (Cohen's d = 0.06), and had the largest coverage percentage of the reference confidence interval (96%). CONCLUSIONS: The use of multiple imputation improves the validity of the results when analyzing datasets with missing observations. Some of the often-used approaches (LOCF, complete cases analysis) did not perform well, and, hence, we recommend not using these. Accumulating support for the analysis of multiple imputed datasets is seen in more recent versions of some of the widely used statistical software programs making the use of multiple imputation more readily available to less mathematically inclined researchers.

Effectiveness of a brief motivation enhancing intervention on treatment initiation, treatment retention and abstinence: Results from a multi-site cluster-randomized trial.

The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of a brief motivational enhancing intervention (MEI) as an add-on to supervision-as-usual (SAU) in reducing time to treatment initiation in offenders with substance use disorders (SUDs) under probation supervision. We also tested the effectiveness in enhancing treatment retention and abstinence of primary substance rates. The study was designed as a multi-site, cluster randomized trial (CRT) in six addiction probation offices. We randomized 73 probation officers (37 to intervention, 36 to control) and followed 220 substance-abusing repeat offenders during their supervision (111 intervention, 109 control). Individualized SAU was compared with supervision with MEI. We report time to treatment initiation, treatment retention rate during the 12 months follow-up, and primary substance abstinence rate in the 30 days before follow-up. Results show that time to treatment initiation (χ2(1) = 1.817, p = .178), and the proportion of treatment retention (OR = 1.980, p = .213) and primary substance abstinence (OR = 0.945, p = .886) did not significantly differ between offenders that received SAU plus MEI and those that received SAU at 12 months follow-up. Our findings provide no evidence that supervision plus a brief manual-base MEI is more effective than SAU.

Predicting the effect of naltrexone and acamprosate in alcohol-dependent patients using genetic indicators.

Acamprosate and naltrexone are effective medications in the treatment of alcoholism. However, effect sizes are modest. Pharmacogenomics may improve patient-treatment-matching and effect sizes. It is hypothesized that naltrexone exerts its effect through genetic characteristics associated with the dopaminergic/opioidergic positive reinforcement system, whereas acamprosate works through the glutamatergic/GABAergic negative reinforcement system. Alcohol-dependent subjects were randomly assigned to either acamprosate or naltrexone. Subjects participated in a cue-exposure experiment at the day before and at the last day of medication. Reductions in cue-induced craving and physiological cue reactivity were measured. Differential effects of naltrexone and acamprosate on these outcomes were tested for different polymorphisms of the opioid, dopamine, glutamate and GABA-receptors. Significant matching effects were found for polymorphisms at the DRD2, GABRA6 and GABRB2 gene. In addition, a trend was found for the OPRM1 polymorphism. This provides evidence for the matching potential of genotypes. It is expected that more effective treatments can be offered when genetic information is used in patient-treatment-matching.

Evaluating real-time internet therapy and online self-help for problematic alcohol consumers: a three-arm RCT protocol.

BACKGROUND: Only a minority of all alcohol- and drug abusers is receiving professional care. In an attempt to narrow this treatment gap, treatment facilities experiment with online healthcare. Therefore, it is important to test the (cost-)effectiveness of online health interventions in a randomized clinical trial. METHODS: This paper presents the protocol of a three-arm randomized clinical trial to test the (cost-) effectiveness of online treatment for problem drinkers. Self-help online, therapy online and a waiting list are tested against each other. Primary outcome is change in alcohol consumption. Secondary outcome measures include quality of life and working ability. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for self-help online alcohol and therapy online alcohol will be calculated. The predictive validity of participant characteristics on treatment adherence and outcome will be explored. DISCUSSION: To our best knowledge, this randomized clinical trial will be the first to test the effectiveness of therapy online against both self-help online and a waiting-list. It will provide evidence on (cost-) effectiveness of online treatment for problem drinkers and investigate outcome predictors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered in the Dutch Trialregister (Cochrane Collaboration) and traceable as NTR-TC1155.

A retrospective cohort study on lifestyle habits of cardiovascular patients: how informative are medical records?

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the vigilance of medical specialists as to the lifestyle of their cardiovascular outpatients by comparing lifestyle screening as registered in medical records versus a lifestyle questionnaire (LSQ), a study was carried out at the cardiovascular outpatient clinic of the university hospital of Nijmegen, The Netherlands, between June 2004 and June 2005. METHODS: For 209 patients information from medical records on lifestyle habits, physician feedback, and interventions in the past year was compared to data gathered in the last month by a self-report LSQ. RESULTS: Doctors register smoking habits most consistently (90.4%), followed by alcohol use (81.8%), physical activity (50.2%), and eating habits (27.3%). Compared to the LSQ, smoking, unhealthy alcohol use, physical activity, and unhealthy eating habits are underreported in medical records by 31, 83, 54 and 97%, respectively. Feedback, advice or referral was documented in 8% for smoking, 3% for alcohol use, 12% for physical activity, and 26% for eating habits. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle is insufficiently registered or recognized by doctors providing routine care in a cardiovascular outpatient setting. Of the unhealthy lifestyle habits that are registered, few are accompanied by notes on advice or intervention. A lifestyle questionnaire facilitates screening and interventions in target patients and should therefore be incorporated in the cardiovascular setting as a routine patient intake procedure.

The Role of Motivation in Predicting Addiction Treatment Entry Among Offenders With Substance Use Disorders Under Probation Supervision.

Many offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD) do not enter addiction treatment. The aim of this study was to examine predictors of addiction treatment entry and to get more insight in the predictive value of treatment motivation. A total of 83 male offenders with a SUD under probation supervision in the Netherlands were assessed at the start of probation supervision and at 12-month follow-up. A total of 38 offenders (45.5%) entered addiction treatment in the follow-up period. Offenders with any mandated treatment (p = .028) and higher treatment motivation (p = .005) were more likely to enter treatment. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that treatment motivation predicts addiction treatment entry in the first year of probation (OR = 2.215, p < .01). This emphasizes the relevance of treatment motivation for addiction treatment entry among offenders with a SUD. Pretreatment motivational interventions are therefore recommended for offenders with low motivation for treatment in probation settings.

The Predictive Value of Impulsivity and Risk-Taking Measures for Substance Use in Substance Dependent Offenders.

Impulsivity and risk-taking are known to have an important impact on problematic substance use and criminal behavior. This study examined the predictive value of baseline self-report and behavioral impulsivity and risk-taking measures [Delay Discounting Task (DDT), Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) and Behavioral Inhibition, Behavioral Activation Scale (BIS/BAS)] in 12-months follow-up substance use outcomes (e.g., use of alcohol, cannabis and other substances) and criminal recidivism (yes/no). Participants were 213 male offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD) under probation supervision. Bivariate regression analyses showed that BIS and BAS levels were associated (respectively) with the use of alcohol and cannabis. Multiple regression analysis showed that BIS was negatively associated with alcohol use at follow-up, whereas cannabis use at baseline and BAS predicted cannabis use at follow-up. At a trend level, interactions between delay discounting and risk-taking, and interactions between baseline cannabis use and BAS and BART predicted cannabis use at follow-up. Other substance use at follow-up was solely predicted by baseline other substance use. Overall, the findings provide marginal support for the predictive utility of impulsivity and risk-taking in accounting for variability in substance use among offenders with a SUD. This may be partly explained by the fact that only a limited number of psychological factors was assessed in this study. The studied population consists of a severe group, in which relapse into substance use or criminal behavior likely is related to complex, interacting biopsychosocial factors, of which impulsivity measures play a relatively small part.

Individual cognitive-behavioral therapy and behavioral couples therapy in alcohol use disorder: a comparative evaluation in community-based addiction treatment centers.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol abuse serves as a chronic stressor between partners and has a deleterious effect on relationship functioning. Behavioral Couples Therapy (BCT) for alcohol dependence, studied as an adjunct to individual outpatient counseling, has shown to be effective in decreasing alcohol consumption and enhancing marital functioning, but no study has directly tested the comparative effectiveness of stand-alone BCT versus an individually focused cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in a clinical community sample. METHODS: The present study is a randomized clinical trial evaluating the effectiveness of stand-alone BCT (n = 30) compared to individual CBT (n = 34) in the treatment of alcohol use disorders in community treatment centers in Dutch male and female alcoholics and their partners. RESULTS: Results show both BCT and CBT to be effective in changing drinking behavior after treatment. BCT was not found to be superior to CBT. Marital satisfaction of the spouse increased significantly in the BCT condition but not in the CBT condition, the differences being significant at the post-test. Patients' self-efficacy to withstand alcohol-related high-risk situations increased significantly in both treatment conditions, but more so in CBT than in BCT after treatment. Treatment involvement of the spouse did not increase retention. CONCLUSION: Regular practitioners in community treatment centers can effectively deliver both treatments. Stand-alone BCT is as effective as CBT in terms of reduced drinking and to some extent more effective in terms of enhancing relationship satisfaction. However, BCT is a more costly intervention, given that treatment sessions lasted almost twice as long as individual CBT sessions.

Social support in chat sessions for adolescents and young adults living with a family member with mental illness.

Children from families with a mental illness are at risk of developing negative health outcomes. Online interventions are a new way to offer support to these children. The present study utilized a website that had been developed to support Dutch youth who had a family member with a mental illness. The objective was to analyse monitored and unmonitored chatroom conversations among these young people, and specifically to compare supportive messages and self-disclosures of experiences. We electronically imported session transcripts of 34 chatroom conversations into the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti. A content analysis was performed on 4252 messages from 22 female participants. A correlational analysis was then conducted to identify significant associations between sent and received supportive statements and disclosing statements. We found supporting comments in approximately 34% of the conversations and disclosures of problems in the home in approximately 15-18% of the messages. Participants made approximately twice as many disclosing statements and approximately half as many supportive statements in the monitored sessions compared to the unmonitored sessions. The number of disclosures that were sent was positively correlated with the amount of social support that was received. The number of disclosures sent was negatively correlated with the amount of social support that was sent, but only in the unmonitored sessions. Considering the greater reach of Internet interventions, online chatroom sessions might be provided as complementary to, or as an alternative to, face-to-face groups for supporting youth with a family member who has a mental illness.

The effect of naltrexone and acamprosate on cue-induced craving, autonomic nervous system and neuroendocrine reactions to alcohol-related cues in alcoholics.

INTRODUCTION: Acamprosate and naltrexone have been shown to be effective in relapse prevention of alcoholism. It is hypothesized that naltrexone exerts its effects primarily on cue-induced craving and neuroendocrine cue reactivity, whereas acamprosate exerts its effect primarily on autonomic nervous system reactions to alcohol-related cues. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURES: In a randomized double-blind experiment, 131 abstinent alcoholics received either acamprosate (n=56), naltrexone (n=52) or placebo (n=23) for three weeks and participated in two cue-exposure sessions: the first the day before and the second at the last day of medication. RESULTS: Consistent with the hypotheses, naltrexone reduced craving more than acamprosate, and acamprosate reduced heart rate more than naltrexone. No medication effect was found on cue-induced cortisol. DISCUSSION: The findings provide some evidence for differential effects of naltrexone and acamprosate: naltrexone may exert its effect, at least partly, by the reduction of cue-induced craving, whereas acamprosate may exert its effect, at least partly, by the reduction of autonomic nervous system reactions to alcohol-related cues.

Allocation of substance use disorder patients to appropriate levels of care: feasibility of matching guidelines in routine practice in Dutch treatment centres.

AIMS: To examine the feasibility of implementing evidence-based guidelines for patient-treatment-matching to levels of care in two Dutch substance abuse treatment centres. DESIGN: Multi-centre observational follow-up study. SETTING: Two large substance abuse treatment centres (SATCs). PARTICIPANTS: All 4394 referrals to the two SATCs in 2003. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline patient characteristics needed for treatment allocation according to protocol, treatment allocation according to matching protocol, treatment allocation according to actual level of care (LOC) entered. ANALYSIS: Comparison of recommended and actual LOC entered. Evaluation of reasons for observed differences between recommended and actual LOC entered. FINDINGS: Data needed for treatment allocation according to protocol were available for 2269 (51.6%) patients. Data needed for evaluation of actual LOC entered were available for 1765 (40.2%) patients. Of these patients, 1089 (60.8%) were allocated according to protocol: 48.4% based on the guideline algorithm and 12.4% based on clinically justified deviations from this algorithm. The main reason for deviation was a different appraisal of addiction severity, made by the intake counsellor compared to the protocol. CONCLUSION: The feasibility of guideline-based treatment allocation is seriously limited due to inadequate data collection of patient characteristics and suboptimal guideline-based treatment allocation. As a consequence, only 24.4% of the patients could be evaluated as being matched properly to the treatment planned. The results indicate several barriers which limit the adequate implementation of patient-treatment-matching guidelines: problems in the infrastructure of data collection and storage and the inertia of intake staff who did not adhere to the guidelines for assessment and matching.

Cue exposure therapy for the treatment of alcohol use disorders: A meta-analytic review.

Cue Exposure Therapy (CET) is a behavioristic psychological approach to treating substance use disorders (SUD). Prior systematic reviews have found CET to be ineffective when targeting SUDs. The effect of this approach on alcohol use disorders (AUD) seems more promising at trial level but has yet to be systematically reviewed and quantitatively analyzed. Therefore, we aimed to examine the effectiveness of CET targeting AUD compared to active control conditions in a meta-analytic review. Following a systematic search of the literature, a total of seven controlled trials were identified. CET showed no to small additional effects on drinking intensity and drinking frequency, a small additional effect on total drinking score and a moderate additional effect on latency to relapse. Stratification and analysis of a-priori defined trial covariates revealed that CET may have an increased effect in the longer term, and that CET combined with urge-specific coping skills may be the better option for treating AUD than conventional CET. Also, CET may prove less effective when comparing it to cognitive behaviour therapy as opposed to other active control conditions. The overall quality of evidence was graded low due to high risk of bias, inconsistency, imprecision and suspected publication bias. Sounder methodological trials are needed to derive a firm conclusion about the effectiveness of CET for treating AUD.

A brief behavioral feedback intervention in hospital outpatients with a high cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE: Examining the prevalence of risk behavior and motivation to change among hospital outpatients with a high cardiovascular risk, and the implementation and results of a brief behavioral feedback intervention by internists. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-one patients completed a lifestyle questionnaire and were given personalized feedback on the results by their internists. The delivery of the feedback was monitored. In an ad hoc non randomized comparison after four months, 68 patients who received an intervention were compared with 40 who did not receive it. RESULTS: Ninety-six percent of the patients demonstrated at least one risk behavior and 73% were not contemplating change. The intervention was correctly given to 62%. The patients who received the intervention reported more lifestyle changes and altered their motivation to change more often. DISCUSSION: Given the prevalence of risk behavior lifestyle interventions are worthwhile. Internists delivered the intervention to most patients. Small effects of the intervention were found, but the non-experimental nature of the study should be taken into account. CONCLUSION: Implementation of a behavioral feedback intervention seems to be feasible and can lead to worthwhile lifestyle changes for patients at risk for cardiovascular disease. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Training and education can improve the intervention. Also a nurse practitioner can perform part of it.

Self-expressed strengths and resources of children of parents with a mental illness: A systematic review.

The aim of the present study was to explore the strengths children reported to have acquired while coping with their parents illness, and the external factors these children indicated had facilitated their coping process. A systematic literature search was conducted of peer-reviewed papers that focused on self-reported experiences of children with parents who had mental illness, and revealed their strengths and resources. The search included the following databases: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. Results were filtered according to whether search terms appeared in the title or abstract. Fifty-seven full-text papers were reviewed; 26 of them met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. The statements were analysed using content analysis. The search identified 160 relevant statements, 38 (24%) of which could be described as self-reported strengths, and 122 (76%) as self-reported resources. According to these statements, the children described themselves as more mature, independent, and empathic than their peers who did not have a parent with a mental illness, and as having acquired several abilities. The statements about resources indicated that the children regarded social support, information, and particularly the support of mental health-care professionals as helpful when living with a parent with a mental illness. Recommendations for nursing actions to support children's ability to cope with their parents' illness are outlined.

Online support for children of parents suffering from mental illness: a case study.

From epidemiologic research, we know that children of parents with a mental illness (COPMI) have an elevated risk of developing a serious mental disorder. Aside from studies based on risk and resilience, there has been little research on the children's own perceptions. The aim of this study was to expand our understanding of key variables influencing COPMI's seeking support and to explore whether a website targeted at COPMI could help them improve their ability to cope with their circumstances and to find professional help. This case study illustrates one visitor's use of a website that was specifically designed to help COPMI. The visitor was a young adult female whose two parents both suffered from mental illness. She participated for 3 years in an intervention delivered through the website. Several things helped to inform us about her perspective on living with parents suffering from mental illness, her use of the website and the benefits she derived from using the website. These included (a) her story as she told it in the exit interview, (b) her messages to her peers and counsellors, (c) her user data and (d) the content of her chat conversations with her peers.

Temporal stability of pathological scratchcard gambling among adult scratchcard buyers two years later.

AIMS: To estimate the 2-year cumulative incidence of pathological scratchcard gambling (PSG) among a representative sample of high-risk scratchcard buyers, to assess the 2-year temporal stability of PSG and scratchcard-related problems and to estimate the adjusted 1-year prevalence for PSG taking into account the temporal dynamics of this diagnosis. DESIGN: A prospective study with two assessments was applied to a non-proportional stratified random sample of 12,222 adult scratchcard buyers in the Netherlands. A cost-effective design was used and only those scratchcard buyers (n=201) who had already experienced some scratchcard-related problems at initial assessment were followed-up 2 years later. PARTICIPANTS: Two independent cohorts of buyers with scratchcard-related problems were followed-up: a cohort of 173 potential problematic scratchcard gamblers (PPSG) at increased risk for PSG and a cohort of 28 pathological scratchcard gamblers. Incidence and prevalence estimates were calculated for the total sample of adult scratchcard buyers and for the Dutch adult population. FINDINGS: Of the PPSG group 6.72% (95% CI 2.30-8.90%) became addicted to scratchcards during the 2-year period. The 2-year cumulative incidence of PSG among Dutch adult scratchcard players was 0.24% (95% CI 0.16-0.34%). The stability of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 4th edition (DSM-IV) diagnosis of PSG ranged from 11.1% to 42.9%, depending on whether or not those lost to follow-up were considered to be cases of PSG. Taking into account the dynamics of this disorder, using the most conservative assumption, the adjusted 1-year prevalence of PSG for the total sample of adult scratchcard buyers was 0.33% (95% CI 0.23-0.45%). CONCLUSIONS: PSG proves to be a rare phenomenon among adult scratchcard buyers in the Netherlands. Both incidence and prevalence of the DSM-IV diagnosis PSG were low. Stability of the DSM-IV diagnosis PSG, DSM-IV criteria and South Oaks Gambling Screening-S (SOGS-S) problems were low. Prevalence was stable over the time because incidence and recovery rates were very similar.