RESUMO
Budget Impact Analyses require a set of essential information on health technology innovation, including expected rates of adoption. There is an absence of studies investigating trends, magnitude of budgetary effects and determinants of diffusion rates for health technology innovations worldwide during the last decades. The present study proposes a pilot assessment on main determinants influencing diffusion rates of pharmaceutical innovations within the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS). Data from the Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS) was gathered to establish the main determinants of diffusion rates of health technology innovations in Brazil, specifically referring to pharmaceutical innovations incorporated in the Brazilian Program for Specialized Pharmaceutical Services (CEAF) at SUS. Information was retrieved on DATASUS relating to patients who had used one of the medicines incorporated into CEAF at least three years prior to the beginning of the study (2015) for treatment of each health condition available. Thus, data from patients adopting 10 different medicines were analyzed in the study. Results from the zero-one inflated beta model showed a higher influence on diffusion rates of pharmaceutical innovations due to: number of pharmaceutical competitors for treatment of the same disease available at CEAF (negative); medicine used in combination with other medication (positive); and innovative medicine within the SUS (positive). Further research on diffusion rates of health technology innovations is required, including wider scope of diseases and medications, potential confusion factors and other variables that may influence rates of adoption in different health systems.