Resolution doubling in fluorescence microscopy with confocal spinning-disk image scanning microscopy.

We demonstrate how a conventional confocal spinning-disk (CSD) microscope can be converted into a doubly resolving image scanning microscopy (ISM) system without changing any part of its optical or mechanical elements. Making use of the intrinsic properties of a CSD microscope, we illuminate stroboscopically, generating an array of excitation foci that are moved across the sample by varying the phase between stroboscopic excitation and rotation of the spinning disk. ISM then generates an image with nearly doubled resolution. Using conventional fluorophores, we have imaged single nuclear pore complexes in the nuclear membrane and aggregates of GFP-conjugated Tau protein in three dimensions. Multicolor ISM was shown on cytoskeletal-associated structural proteins and on 3D four-color images including MitoTracker and Hoechst staining. The simple adaptation of conventional CSD equipment allows superresolution investigations of a broad variety of cell biological questions.

Myocardial and Cardiocirculatory Reserve in Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: Managing patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS) remains a major challenge. Myocardial as well as cardiocirculatory reserve have been hypothesized to predict outcome in patients with asymptomatic AS. METHODS: A total of 48 patients (indexed aortic valve area 0.39 +/- 0.12 cm2/m2; ejection fraction (EF) 67 +/- 7%) underwent spiroergometry and dobutamine stress echocardiography. Death or valve surgery served as a combined endpoint for follow up. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients reached the endpoint after a mean of 756 days (range: 100-2146 days). Age- and gender-corrected univariate Cox proportional analysis revealed the presence of mild obstructive lung disease, stroke work loss (SWL), end-systolic diameter index, and E/Flow propagation velocity as the best predictive clinical, valvular, cardiostructural, and left ventricular filling pressure parameters, respectively. After inclusion of these parameters into a baseline multivariable Cox proportional hazard model, SWL (HR 1.21 per rise of 1 unit, CI 1.08-1.35, p = 0.0005) and female gender (HR 3.37, CI 1.50-7.59, p = 0.0044) were independently predictive. Similarly, the best-performing myocardial parameter, EF after dobutamine, was independently predictive (HR 0.75 per 5 units, CI 0.57-0.99, p = 0.035) after inclusion. The best-performing exercise capacity parameter, Watt(max), was of borderline significance (HR 0.93 per 5 units, CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.0505). For each parameter, cut-off values were determined by time-dependent receiver-operator characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier curves of the patients above versus below the cut-offs differed significantly for SWL (p = 0.001), Wattm (p = 0.001), and gender (p = 0.013). CONCLUSION: Besides SWL and female gender, the EF after dobutamine as well as highest exercise stress intensity reached are helpful in determining the prognosis of asymptomatic patients with moderate-severe AS.

Photoluminescence of carbon nanodots: dipole emission centers and electron-phonon coupling.

Inorganic carbon nanomaterials, also called carbon nanodots, exhibit a strong photoluminescence with unusual properties and, thus, have been the focus of intense research. Nonetheless, the origin of their photoluminescence is still unclear and the subject of scientific debates. Here, we present a single particle comprehensive study of carbon nanodot photoluminescence, which combines emission and lifetime spectroscopy, defocused emission dipole imaging, azimuthally polarized excitation dipole scanning, nanocavity-based quantum yield measurements, high resolution transmission electron microscopy, and atomic force microscopy. We find that photoluminescent carbon nanodots behave as electric dipoles, both in absorption and emission, and that their emission originates from the recombination of photogenerated charges on defect centers involving a strong coupling between the electronic transition and collective vibrations of the lattice structure.

Single-molecule metal-induced energy transfer (smMIET): resolving nanometer distances at the single-molecule level.

We present a new concept for measuring distance values of single molecules from a surface with nanometer accuracy using the energy transfer from the excited molecule to surface plasmons of a metal film. We measure the fluorescence lifetime of individual dye molecules deposited on a dielectric spacer as a function of a spacer thickness. By using our theoretical model, we convert the lifetime values into the axial distance of individual molecules. Similar to Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET), this allows emitters to be localized with nanometer accuracy, but in contrast to FRET the distance range at which efficient energy transfer takes place is an order of magnitude larger. Our technique can be potentially used as a tool for measuring intramolecular distances of biomolecules and complexes.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Kenya.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Kenya. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for High-Risk Plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Fourteen EU-regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, cowpea mild mottle virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, potato leafroll virus, potato spindle tuber viroid, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, R. solanacearum, Scirtothrips dorsalis, tomato mild mottle virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus and Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and six EU non-regulated pests (Aleurodicus dispersus, pepper veinal mottle virus, Nipaecoccus viridis, Phenacoccus solenopsis, Tetranychus neocaledonicus and tomato yellow ring virus) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Kenya were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. Additionally, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with T. neocaledonicus being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9942 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. per 10,000 would be free of T. neocaledonicus.

Commodity risk assessment of Sorbus aucuparia plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Sorbus aucuparia bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old and specimen trees in pots up to 15 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Three EU quarantine pests (Entoleuca mammata and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), Erwinia amylovora), were selected for further evaluation. For two of the selected pests (E. mammata and P. ramorum), the risk mitigation measures implemented in the UK and specified in the technical dossier were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies between the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported S. aucuparia plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9812 and 10,000 bare-root S. aucuparia plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Guatemala.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both, regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Guatemala. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for high-risk plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Nineteen EU regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, pepper golden mosaic virus, pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, tomato severe leaf curl virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, Bactericera cockerelli, Eotetranichus lewisi, Epitrix subcrinita, Epitrix cucumeris, Helicoverpa zea, Chloridea virescens, Spodoptera ornithogalli, Ralstonia solanacearum, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and one EU non-regulated (Phenacoccus solenopsis) pest fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Guatemala were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors, and an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The limited and partially conflicting information provided in the dossier contributes to the wide estimates of pest freedom. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Ralstonia spp. (R. solanacearum and R. pseudosolanacearum) being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9916 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings per 10,000 would be free of Ralstonia spp.

Commodity risk assessment of Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Four EU quarantine pests (Meloidogyne fallax, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), tobacco ringspot virus, and tomato ringspot virus) and one EU non-regulated pest (Discula destructiva), were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported C. alba and C. sanguinea plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bare-root C. alba and C. sanguinea plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Commodity risk assessment of Tilia cordata and Tilia platyphyllos plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Tilia cordata and T. platyphyllos imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of budwood/graftwood; (b) 1- to 2-year-old whips, seedlings or transplants; (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants; (d) 1- to 7-year-old bare root single plants; and (e) up to 25-year-old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information provided by the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. None of the pests on the list fulfilled all relevant criteria and therefore none were selected for further evaluation. As a result, risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were listed, but not further evaluated.

Commodity risk assessment of Corylus avellana plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Corylus avellana imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of 1- to 2-year old whips or transplants, (b) bundles of 1- to 2-year old cell grown plants, (c) 1- to 7-year old bare root single plants and (d) up to 15-year old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and Thaumetopoea processionea fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9939 and 10,000 of the single plants in pots up to 15-year old will be free from P. ramorum (non-EU isolates).

Commodity risk assessment of Ligustrum ovalifolium and Ligustrum vulgare plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of the evergreen Ligustrum ovalifolium and the semi-evergreen Ligustrum vulgare imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bare root plants and (b) plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. The category (a) 'bare root plants' includes bundles of 1- to 3-year-old bare root whips or transplants and single 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants. The category (b) 'plants in pots' includes bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants (only L. vulgare) and 1- to 5-year-old plants in pots. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Bemisia tabaci and Scirtothrips dorsalis, and one pest not regulated in the EU, Diaprepes abbreviatus, fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom considering the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9915 and 10,000 per 10,000 bare root plants and plants in pots will be free from B. tabaci.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus avium plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus avium possibly grafted on rootstocks of either P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasus, P. pseudocerasus or their hybrids imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests Scirtothrips dorsalis, tobacco ringspot virus and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone EU quarantine pest (Bemisia tabaci (European population), and three non- regulated pests (Colletotrichum aenigma, Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Colletotrichum aenigma being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9971 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned fungus.

Pest risk assessment of Leucinodes orbonalis for the European Union.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment of Leucinodes orbonalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, for the EU. The assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, climatic conditions favouring establishment, spread and impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed but effectiveness was not quantified. L. orbonalis is a key pest of eggplant (aubergine/brinjal) in the Indian subcontinent and occurs throughout most of southern Asia with records mostly from India and Bangladesh. The main pathway of entry is fruit of solanaceous plants, primarily exotic varieties of eggplant, Solanum melongena and turkey berry, S. torvum. The trade in both commodities from Asia is small but nevertheless dwarfs the trade in other Solanum fruits from Asia (S. aethiopicum, S. anguivi, S. virginianum, S. aculeatissimum, S. undatum). Other Solanum fruits were therefore not further assessed as potential pathways. The trade in eggplant from Asia consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU, while most eggplant consumed in Europe is produced in southern European and northern African countries, where L. orbonalis does not occur. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, the Panel estimated that approximately 3-670 infested fruit (90% certainty range, CR) of S. melongena or fruit bunches of S. torvum enter into regions of the EU that are suitable for L. orbonalis establishment each year. Based on CLIMEX modelling, and using two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to indicate uncertainty in establishment potential, climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, approximately 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste. By analysing results of different scenarios for the proportion of S. melongena and S. torvum in the trade, and considering uncertainties in the climatic suitability of southern Europe, adult moth emergence in areas suitable for establishment is expected to vary between 84 individuals per year and one individual per 40 years (based on 90% CR in different scenarios). In the baseline scenario, 25% of the solanaceous fruit from Asia is S. torvum, 75% is S. melongena and EI ≥ 30 is required for establishment. After accounting for the chances of mating, host finding and establishment, the probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in the EU is less than 1 in 100,000 to about 1 event per 622 years (90% CR in baseline scenario). The waiting time until the first establishment is then 622 to more than 100,000 years (CR). If such a founder population were established, the moth is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65-7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5-92 years. The impact of the insect on the production of eggplant is estimated to be 0.67%-13% (CR) if growers take no specific action against the insect and 0.13%-1.9% if they do take targeted actions. Tomato (S. lycopersicum) and potato (S. tuberosum) are hosts of L. orbonalis, but the insect does not develop to maturity in tomato fruit, and it does not feed on potato tubers under field conditions; hence, damage to potato can only occur due to feeding on shoots. Tomato and potato are not preferred hosts; nevertheless, impact can occur if populations of L. orbonalis are high and preferred hosts are not available. The Panel did not assess this damage due to insufficient information.

Commodity risk assessment of plants of 12 selected Prunus species from Moldova.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High-risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by defoliated 1- or 2-year old bare root plants for planting (grafted or not) of 12 Prunus species (Prunus armeniaca, P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasifera, P. cerasus, P. davidiana, P. domestica, P. dulcis, P. fontanesiana, P. persica, P. salicina, P. tomentosa) imported from Moldova, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country. The evaluation identified three EU-quarantine pests, Erwinia amylovora (protected zone quarantine pest), Xiphinema rivesi non-EU populations and Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni (protected zone quarantine pest), which were selected for further evaluation, based on defined criteria, including their presence in the applicant country. It should be noted that there is uncertainty regarding whether all relevant pests have been identified due to a limited number of scientific publications and pest surveys in Moldova. For the three selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Moldova were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on it, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Erwinia amylovora being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bundles (comprising 10-20 plants per bundle) out of 10,000 bundles would be free from E. amylovora.

Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub-Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub-Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570-52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350-32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023-0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8-4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001-0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14-7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2040-2059, the percent of infested produce going to suitable areas would be increased to 33% for EI ≥ 15 and to 21% for EI ≥ 30. Accordingly, the waiting time until the next founder population would be reduced to median estimates of 89 years for EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 6-2980 years) and 139 years for EI ≥ 30 (90% CR 9-4655 years). If a founder population were to establish, it is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65-7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5-92 years. Leucinodes spp. are estimated to reduce eggplant yield by a median value of 4.5% (90% CR 0.67%-13%) if growers take no specific action, or 0.54% (90% CR between 0.13% and 1.9%) if they do take targeted action, matching previous estimates made during a risk assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia.

Risk assessment of Retithrips syriacus for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Retithrips syriacus (Mayet) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), a polyphagous thrips, regarded as a tropical/subtropical pest occurring in several countries of Africa, South America, Asia and in the EU in Cyprus. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of cut roses, persimmons, table grapes, as well as plants for planting of the genera Acalypha and Terminalia from third countries and those of Persea americana (avocado) from Israel as the most relevant entry pathways to consider. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of 95 (90% Certainty Range, CR, ranging from 13 to 1832) potential R. syriacus founder populations per year are expected to successfully transfer to a suitable host in the EU NUTS2 regions where the climatic conditions are predicted as suitable for establishment; this value drops to a median of 4.6 founder populations per year (90% CR: 1 every 1.9 years - 85.6 per year) after considering the actual probability of establishment of a potential founder population. The estimated number of founder population per year is mostly driven by the import of cut roses and plants for planting. If such founder populations were to establish, R. syriacus is estimated to spread at a median rate of 0.05 km/year (90% CR 0.02-2.30 km/year) after a median lag phase of 1.1 years (90% CR 0.3-3.3 years). The overall impact on yield (expressed as % of the total agricultural production) directly attributable to R. syriacus when considering: (i) the main R. syriacus hosts in the EU, (ii) the areas of the EU where establishment is possible, (iii) the current agricultural practices and (iv) the evidence of impact from the countries where the pest is established for a long time, was estimated at 0.065% as the median value of the uncertainty distribution (90% CR 0.001%-0.571%). Options for risk reduction are discussed, but the effectiveness was not quantified.

Trace-back and trace-forward tools developed ad hoc and used during the STEC O104:H4 outbreak 2011 in Germany and generic concepts for future outbreak situations.

The Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak in Germany in 2011 required the development of appropriate tools in real-time for tracing suspicious foods along the supply chain, namely salad ingredients, sprouts, and seeds. Food commodities consumed at locations identified as most probable site of infection (outbreak clusters) were traced back in order to identify connections between different disease clusters via the supply chain of the foods. A newly developed relational database with integrated consistency and plausibility checks was used to collate these data for further analysis. Connections between suppliers, distributors, and producers were visualized in network graphs and geographic projections. Finally, this trace-back and trace-forward analysis led to the identification of sprouts produced by a horticultural farm in Lower Saxony as vehicle for the pathogen, and a specific lot of fenugreek seeds imported from Egypt as the most likely source of contamination. Network graphs have proven to be a powerful tool for summarizing and communicating complex trade relationships to various stake holders. The present article gives a detailed description of the newly developed tracing tools and recommendations for necessary requirements and improvements for future foodborne outbreak investigations.

Commodity risk assessment of Crataegus monogyna plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Crataegus monogyna bare root plants and rooted plants in pots imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Only the quarantine pest Erwinia amylovora was selected for further evaluation. For E. amylovora the special requirements specified in the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072 are fulfilled by the UK and no other pests for further evaluation were selected.

Risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a risk assessment of Citripestis sagittiferella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the citrus pulp borer, an oligophagous pest reported from South-East Asia and restricted to Citrus spp. The entry risk assessment focused on the citrus fruit pathway. Two scenarios were considered: scenario A0 (current practice) and A2 (additional post-harvest cold treatment). Based on the outputs of the entry model obtained in scenario A0, the median number of founder populations in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated to be slightly less than 10 per year (90%-uncertainty interval between about one entry per 180 years and 1,300 entries per year). The risk of entry and the simulated numbers of founder populations are orders of magnitude lower for scenario A2 compared to scenario A0. The key uncertainties in the entry model include transfer, the cold treatment effectiveness, the disaggregation factor and sorting. The simulated numbers of established populations are only slightly lower than the numbers of founder populations. As the probability of establishment has little impact on the number of established populations, it is not a major source of uncertainty, despite the lack of data on the thermal biology of the pest. The median lag period between establishment and spread is estimated to be slightly more than 1 year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2 months and 33 months). After the lag period, the median spread rate by natural means (flying) and due to transport of harvested citrus fruit from orchards to packinghouses is estimated at about 100 km/year (90%-uncertainty interval between about 40 and 500 km/year). The main sources of uncertainties affecting the spread rate include the extent to which environmental factors could hamper the build-up of the populations and the lack of data on the spread rate at the origin. The median impact of C. sagittiferella in the EU citrus-growing area is estimated at about 10% of infested fruits among the harvested citrus fruits (90%-uncertainty interval between about 2% and 25%). Uncertainties affecting the impact assessment include the susceptibility of different Citrus species and cultivars.

Risk assessment of N-nitrosamines in food.

EFSA was asked for a scientific opinion on the risks to public health related to the presence of N-nitrosamines (N-NAs) in food. The risk assessment was confined to those 10 carcinogenic N-NAs occurring in food (TCNAs), i.e. NDMA, NMEA, NDEA, NDPA, NDBA, NMA, NSAR, NMOR, NPIP and NPYR. N-NAs are genotoxic and induce liver tumours in rodents. The in vivo data available to derive potency factors are limited, and therefore, equal potency of TCNAs was assumed. The lower confidence limit of the benchmark dose at 10% (BMDL10) was 10 µg/kg body weight (bw) per day, derived from the incidence of rat liver tumours (benign and malignant) induced by NDEA and used in a margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Analytical results on the occurrence of N-NAs were extracted from the EFSA occurrence database (n = 2,817) and the literature (n = 4,003). Occurrence data were available for five food categories across TCNAs. Dietary exposure was assessed for two scenarios, excluding (scenario 1) and including (scenario 2) cooked unprocessed meat and fish. TCNAs exposure ranged from 0 to 208.9 ng/kg bw per day across surveys, age groups and scenarios. 'Meat and meat products' is the main food category contributing to TCNA exposure. MOEs ranged from 3,337 to 48 at the P95 exposure excluding some infant surveys with P95 exposure equal to zero. Two major uncertainties were (i) the high number of left censored data and (ii) the lack of data on important food categories. The CONTAM Panel concluded that the MOE for TCNAs at the P95 exposure is highly likely (98-100% certain) to be less than 10,000 for all age groups, which raises a health concern.