Impact of three annual tobacco tax rises on tobacco sales in remote Australian Aboriginal community stores.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence from many settings that tobacco tax rises which increase prices reduce tobacco consumption, but only limited evidence from Indigenous settings. METHODS: We analysed 3 years (2016-2018) of weekly sales data from 32 stores in remote Aboriginal communities. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the immediate impact of the price rice following annual 12.5% tobacco tax rises on sales on (A) stick equivalents of tobacco and (B) fruit and vegetables (kg) per $A1000 of grocery sales, and on the trend in sales between price rises. RESULTS: We detected 5.8% and 8.2% immediate declines in tobacco sales following the price rises associated with annual 12.5% tax rises in 2016 and 2018, and a non-significant decline (1.6%) following the 2017 tax rise. Decreased sales were mainly driven by declines in mainstream and premium factory-made cigarettes. Fruit and vegetable sales did not change at the time of tobacco price rises. CONCLUSION: For the first time, we demonstrated evidence of price-sensitivity and the immediate impact of price rises from tobacco tax rises on tobacco sales in remote Aboriginal communities. We acknowledge that Australia already has very high tobacco taxation and prices, but recommend further increases to the taxation of roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco to prevent smokers and industry using cheaper RYO cigarettes to undermine this impact of high tobacco taxes and prices.

Who uses rollies? Trends in product offerings, price and use of roll-your-own tobacco in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco product market in Australia from 2001 to 2016. Trends in use of RYO tobacco among Australian adults were examined for 2004-2016. METHODS: Changes in brand availability, pouch sizes and lowest priced products were noted from trade magazines. Prevalence of smoking of RYO and factory-made (FM) cigarettes among those 18 years and older was obtained from five consecutive waves of a large (n>21 000) nationally representative triennial survey from 2004 to 2016. Trends in cigarette use were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Changes in the Australian RYO market from 2001 to 2016 included a doubling in the number of brands, progressively smaller pouch sizes with smaller increases in price than in traditional RYO and comparable FM products. While use of FM cigarettes declined between 2004 and 2016, the proportion of adults exclusively using RYO tobacco linearly increased with each survey wave (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05, p<0.001), from 1.2% in 2004 to 1.7% in 2016. Exclusive RYO use among current smokers increased more among females than males, and young adults compared with those aged 30 years or older, but did not differ by socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to substantial declines in FM cigarette use, exclusive use of RYO cigarettes increased in Australians since 2004, particularly among females and young adults. This has corresponded to a period of substantial changes to the RYO market, including progressively smaller and relatively more affordable products. Policy action to reduce price-related marketing and correct consumer misinformation about RYO tobacco are urgently required.

Hardening or softening? An observational study of changes to the prevalence of hardening indicators in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2016.

BACKGROUND: The hardening hypothesis predicts that as smoking prevalence declines, remaining smokers will be more heavily addicted to nicotine and/or less interested in quitting. We tested this hypothesis in a population exposed to a comprehensive tobacco control programme over a 16-year period. METHODS: Annual cross-sectional surveys randomly sampled adults (aged 26+) in the state of Victoria, Australia, between 2001 and 2016. Until 2010, participants were recruited through random digit dialling to landline telephones; from 2011, sampling frames also included mobile phones. Logistic regressions assessed changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and each hardening indicator; additional models examined interactions by sex, age, education and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence declined significantly between 2001 and 2016 (20.1%-13.0%), as did the prevalence of seven hardening indicators: daily smoking, heavy consumption, no quit attempt in the past 5 years or past 12 months, no intention to quit in the next 6 months or next 30 days, and happiness to keep smoking. In addition, the proportion of smokers defined as 'hardcore' decreased from 17.2% to 9.1%. On the whole, hardening indicators decreased to a similar extent among demographic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: These results are inconsistent with the hardening hypothesis. Rather, they suggest that a comprehensive tobacco control programme that combines provision of cessation support to individual smokers with implementation of population-level interventions to drive all smokers towards quitting, can successfully reduce both smoking prevalence and levels of dependence and desire to keep smoking among the remaining population of smokers.

The silent salesman: an observational study of personal tobacco pack display at outdoor café strips in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the relative frequency and nature of personal display of cigarette packs by smokers in two Australian cities where 30% front-of-pack and 90% back-of-pack health warnings have been used since 2006 and comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions apply. METHODS: An observational study counted patrons, active smokers and tobacco packs at cafés, restaurants and bars with outdoor seating. Pack orientation and use of cigarette cases were also noted. RESULTS: Overall, 18954 patrons, 1576 active smokers and 2153 packs were observed, meaning that one out of every 12.0 patrons was actively smoking, and one of every 8.8 patrons displayed a pack. Packs were more frequently observed in lower socio-economic neighbourhoods, reflecting the higher prevalence of smoking in those regions. Packs were displayed less often in venues where children were present, suggesting a greater tendency not to smoke around children. Most packs (81.4%) were oriented face-up, permitting prominent brand display. Only 1.5% of observed packs were cigarette cases, and 4.2% of packs were concealed by another item, such as a phone or wallet. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco packs are frequently seen on table-tops in café strips, providing many opportunities for other patrons and passers-by to be incidentally exposed to cigarette brand names and imagery. Use of cigarette cases is rare, suggesting that smokers eventually habituate to pictorial warnings on branded packs and/or find repeated decanting of each newly purchased branded pack into a case to be inconvenient.

Tobacco dependence treatment in Australia - an untapped opportunity for reducing the smoking burden.

Although the prevalence of smoking has fallen across Australia, population groups with complex psychosocial needs still have higher than average smoking rates. Although most people who smoke want to quit, relatively few report being offered advice and assistance to quit and even fewer use effective smoking cessation supports. Implementing systemic tobacco dependence treatment, as required under Australia's international obligations to the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), could further reduce the smoking prevalence, particularly among those experiencing smoking-related health inequalities. Australia's approach to tobacco dependence treatment is characterised herein using Article 14 of the FCTC as a framework.

Smoking prevalence following tobacco tax increases in Australia between 2001 and 2017: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Building on substantial tobacco control action over the previous decade, Australia increased the taxes on tobacco by 25% without forewarning on April 30, 2010. Australia then became one of a few countries to pre-announce a series of increases in tobacco taxes, with annual 12·5% increases starting from December, 2013. We aimed to examine the effects of both tax increases on smoking prevalence. METHODS: By use of survey data from Australians aged 14 years and older in five capital cities, we did an interrupted time-series analysis to model the monthly prevalence of smoking (overall, of factory-made cigarettes [FMC], and of roll-your-own tobacco [RYO]), in the total sample and stratified by socioeconomic status subgroups. We measured outcomes in May, 2001-April, 2010; May, 2010-November, 2013; and December, 2013-April, 2017. FINDINGS: The 25% tax increase was associated with immediate (-0·745 percentage points; 95% CI -1·378 to -0·112) and sustained reductions in prevalence (monthly trend -0·023 percentage points; -0·044 to -0·003), which were driven by reductions in the prevalence of smoking of FMC. The prevalence of smoking of RYO increased between May, 2010, and November, 2013, after the 25% tax increase. At the start of the pre-announced annual 12·5% increases, we observed an immediate reduction in smoking (-0·997 percentage points; -1·632 to -0·362), followed by decreasing overall prevalence (monthly trend -0·044 percentage points; -0·063 to -0·026) due to ongoing decreases in the prevalence of FMC smoking and a cessation of increases in the prevalence of smoking of RYO. Immediate decreases in smoking and changing trends in the prevalence of smoking of RYO were most evident among groups with a lower socioeconomic status. INTERPRETATION: Large tax increases are effective in reducing smoking prevalence, both as a single increase without forewarning and as a pre-announced series of increases. However, taxes on tobacco are best structured to apply equally to FMC and RYO products. Tobacco control policies should prohibit price marketing that otherwise erodes the full impact of such tax increases. FUNDING: Cancer Council Victoria.

Taxation reduces social disparities in adult smoking prevalence.

BACKGROUND: The CDC, the WHO, and the World Bank promote increases in the price of cigarettes as an effective and important tobacco-control strategy. This study was designed to assess the extent to which the association between the price of cigarettes and smoking prevalence, as measured monthly, varies by income group. METHODS: Australian population survey data collected monthly from January 1991 to December 2006 were used to estimate Poisson regression models to assess the impact of the price of cigarettes on smoking prevalence across three income groups. Analyses were conducted in 2008. RESULTS: There was strong evidence that real price and prevalence were negatively associated (p<0.001) and that the association was stronger in lower-income groups (p<0.001). One Australian dollar increase in price was associated with a decline of 2.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% in the prevalence of smoking among low-, medium-, and high-income groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the price of cigarettes not only is an effective tobacco-control strategy to lower smoking prevalence in the general population, but also may provide a means of reducing social disparities in smoking.

The potential for tobacco control to reduce PBS costs for smoking-related cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies for drugs to treat smoking-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 2001-02, and over the period of the government's Intergenerational Report (IGR), assuming current smoking prevalence rates and a 5% absolute reduction. DESIGN AND SETTING: An Australian epidemiological study, using prescribing data, aetiological fraction methodology, and IGR trends. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated smoking-related PBS subsidy costs in 2001-02 and predicted cumulative subsidies until 2041-42, under current and reduced smoking prevalence assumptions. RESULTS: The PBS costs of smoking-related CVD in 2001-02 were $126 million, 9.77% of the cost of drugs for CVD and 2.96% of total PBS subsidies. The cumulative difference in these costs over the 40-year period with a 5% drop in smoking prevalence was predicted to be $4.5 billion, a 17% reduction. The saving would be $1.14 billion discounting future costs at 5% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Further investment in tobacco control interventions could curb the increasing cost of the PBS and contribute to government efforts to ensure the viability of Australia's healthcare-financing programs. The net present value of a campaign to reduce smoking prevalence was estimated at $1 billion, with an internal rate of return of 33%.