Fc Characteristics Mediate Selective Placental Transfer of IgG in HIV-Infected Women.

The placental transfer of maternal IgG is critical for infant protection against infectious pathogens. However, factors that modulate the placental transfer of IgG remain largely undefined. HIV-infected women have impaired placental IgG transfer, presenting a unique "disruption model" to define factors that modulate placental IgG transfer. We measured the placental transfer efficiency of maternal HIV and pathogen-specific IgG in US and Malawian HIV-infected mothers and their HIV-exposed uninfected and infected infants. We examined the role of maternal HIV disease progression, infant factors, placental Fc receptor expression, IgG subclass, and glycan signatures and their association with placental IgG transfer efficiency. Maternal IgG characteristics, such as binding to placentally expressed Fc receptors FcγRIIa and FcγRIIIa, and Fc region glycan profiles were associated with placental IgG transfer efficiency. Our findings suggest that Fc region characteristics modulate the selective placental transfer of IgG, with implications for maternal vaccine design and infant health.

Dolutegravir in Pregnancy as Compared with Current HIV Regimens in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Data on the effectiveness and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in pregnancy as compared with other ART regimens commonly used in the United States and Europe, particularly when initiated before conception, are limited. METHODS: We conducted a study involving pregnancies in persons with HIV-1 infection in the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study whose initial ART in pregnancy included dolutegravir, atazanavir-ritonavir, darunavir-ritonavir, oral rilpivirine, raltegravir, or elvitegravir-cobicistat. Viral suppression at delivery and the risks of infants being born preterm, having low birth weight, and being small for gestational age were compared between each non-dolutegravir-based ART regimen and dolutegravir-based ART. Supplementary analyses that included participants in the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study were conducted to improve the precision of our results. RESULTS: Of the pregnancies in the study, 120 were in participants who received dolutegravir, 464 in those who received atazanavir-ritonavir, 185 in those who received darunavir-ritonavir, 243 in those who received rilpivirine, 86 in those who received raltegravir, and 159 in those who received elvitegravir-cobicistat. The median age at conception was 29 years; 51% of the pregnancies were in participants who started ART before conception. Viral suppression was present at delivery in 96.7% of the pregnancies in participants who received dolutegravir; corresponding percentages were 84.0% for atazanavir-ritonavir, 89.2% for raltegravir, and 89.8% for elvitegravir-cobicistat (adjusted risk differences vs. dolutegravir, -13.0 percentage points [95% confidence interval {CI}, -17.0 to -6.1], -17.0 percentage points [95% CI, -27.0 to -2.4], and -7.0 percentage points [95% CI, -13.3 to -0.0], respectively). The observed risks of preterm birth were 13.6 to 17.6%. Adjusted risks of infants being born preterm, having low birth weight, or being small for gestational age did not differ substantially between non-dolutegravir-based ART and dolutegravir. Results of supplementary analyses were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Atazanavir-ritonavir and raltegravir were associated with less frequent viral suppression at delivery than dolutegravir. No clear differences in adverse birth outcomes were observed with dolutegravir-based ART as compared with non-dolutegravir-based ART, although samples were small. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and others.).

Analyzing Longitudinally Collected Viral Load Measurements in Youth With Perinatally Acquired HIV Infection: Problems and Possible Remedies.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load (VL) is an important quantitative marker of disease progression and treatment response in people living with HIV infection, including children with perinatally acquired HIV. Measures of VL are often used to predict different outcomes of interest in this population, such as HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder. One popular approach to summarizing historical viral burden is the area under a time-VL curve (AUC). However, alternative historical VL summaries (HVS) may better answer the research question of interest. In this article, we discuss and contrast the AUC with alternative HVS, including the time-averaged AUC, duration of viremia, percentage of time with suppressed VL, peak VL, and age at peak VL. Using data on youth with perinatally acquired HIV infection from the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study Adolescent Master Protocol, we show that HVS and their associations with full-scale intelligence quotient depend on when the VLs were measured. When VL measurements are incomplete, as can be the case in observational studies, analysis results may be subject to selection bias. To alleviate bias, we detail an imputation strategy, and we present a simulation study demonstrating that unbiased estimation of a historical VL summary is possible with a correctly specified imputation model.

Genomics Links Inflammation With Neurocognitive Impairment in Children Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1.

BACKGROUND: We identified host single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in perinatally HIV-infected (PHIV) children. METHODS: Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed on 217 PHIV with cognitive score for age (CSA) < 70 and 247 CSA ≥ 70 (discovery cohort [DC]). SNVs identified in DC were evaluated in 2 validation cohorts (VC). Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for NCI. A human microglia NLRP3 inflammasome assay characterized the role of identified genes. RESULTS: Twenty-nine SNVs in 24 genes reaching P ≤ .002 and OR ≥ 1.5 comparing CSA < 70 to CSA ≥ 70 were identified in the DC, of which 3 SNVs were identified in VCs for further study. Combining the 3 cohorts, SNV in CCRL2 (rs3204849) was associated with decreased odds of NCI (P < .0001); RETREG1/FAM134B (rs61733811) and YWHAH (rs73884247) were associated with increased risk of NCI (P < .0001 and P < .001, respectively). Knockdown of CCRL2 led to decreased microglial release of IL-1ß following exposure to ssRNA40 while knockdown of RETREG1 and YWHAH resulted in increased IL-1ß release. CONCLUSIONS: Using WES and 2 VCs, and gene silencing of microglia we identified 3 genetic variants associated with NCI and inflammation in HIV-infected children.

Birth Outcomes for Pregnant Women with HIV Using Tenofovir-Emtricitabine.

BACKGROUND: In a previous trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART) involving pregnant women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, those randomly assigned to receive tenofovir, emtricitabine, and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (TDF-FTC-LPV/r) had infants at greater risk for very premature birth and death within 14 days after delivery than those assigned to receive zidovudine, lamivudine, and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (ZDV-3TC-LPV/r). METHODS: Using data from two U.S.-based cohort studies, we compared the risk of adverse birth outcomes among infants with in utero exposure to ZDV-3TC-LPV/r, TDF-FTC-LPV/r, or TDF-FTC with ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r). We evaluated the risk of preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation), very preterm birth (<34 completed weeks), low birth weight (<2500 g), and very low birth weight (<1500 g). Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with the use of modified Poisson models to adjust for confounding. RESULTS: There were 4646 birth outcomes. Few infants or fetuses were exposed to TDF-FTC-LPV/r (128 [2.8%]) as the initial ART regimen during gestation, in contrast with TDF-FTC-ATV/r (539 [11.6%]) and ZDV-3TC-LPV/r (954 [20.5%]). As compared with women receiving ZDV-3TC-LPV/r, women receiving TDF-FTC-LPV/r had a similar risk of preterm birth (risk ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 1.33) and low birth weight (risk ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.64). As compared to women receiving TDF-FTC-ATV/r, women receiving TDF-FTC-LPV/r had a similar or slightly higher risk of preterm birth (risk ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.72) and low birth weight (risk ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.96 to 2.17). There were no significant differences between regimens in the risk of very preterm birth or very low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of adverse birth outcomes was not higher with TDF-FTC-LPV/r than with ZDV-3TC-LPV/r or TDF-FTC-ATV/r among HIV-infected women and their infants in the United States, although power was limited for some comparisons. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Salivary metabolite levels in perinatally HIV-infected youth with periodontal disease.

INTRODUCTION: Salivary metabolite profiles are altered in adults with HIV compared to their uninfected counterparts. Less is known about youth with HIV and how oral disorders that commonly accompany HIV infection impact salivary metabolite levels. OBJECTIVE: As part of the Adolescent Master Protocol multi-site cohort study of the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study (PHACS) network we compared the salivary metabolome of youth with perinatally-acquired HIV (PHIV) and youth HIV-exposed, but uninfected (PHEU) and determined whether metabolites differ in PHIV versus PHEU. METHODS: We used three complementary targeted and discovery-based liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) workflows to characterize salivary metabolite levels in 20 PHIV and 20 PHEU youth with and without moderate periodontitis. We examined main effects associated with PHIV and periodontal disease, and the interaction between them. RESULTS: We did not identify differences in salivary metabolite profiles that remained significant under stringent control for both multiple between-group comparisons and multiple metabolites. Levels of cadaverine, a known periodontitis-associated metabolite, were more abundant in individuals with periodontal disease with the difference being more pronounced in PHEU than PHIV. In the discovery-based dataset, we identified a total of 564 endogenous peptides in the metabolite extracts, showing that proteolytic processing and amino acid metabolism are important to consider in the context of HIV infection. CONCLUSION: The salivary metabolite profiles of PHIV and PHEU youth were overall very similar. Individuals with periodontitis particularly among the PHEU youth had higher levels of cadaverine, suggesting that HIV infection, or its treatment, may influence the metabolism of oral bacteria.

Human Papillomavirus Antibody Levels and Quadrivalent Vaccine Clinical Effectiveness in Perinatally Human Immunodeficiency Virus-infected and Exposed, Uninfected Youth.

BACKGROUND: Persons who are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at high risk of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers. The objectives are to compare antibody titers to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 and rate of abnormal cytology between perinatally HIV-infected (PHIV) and perinatally HIV-exposed, uninfected (PHEU) youth. METHODS: This is a prospective observational cohort study of HPV4 vaccinated youth performed as part of the multicenter Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study Adolescent Master Protocol. Seroconversion and geometric mean titer (GMT) against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 were calculated. Vaccine effectiveness included rates of abnormal cervical cytology and genital warts. RESULTS: Seroconversion to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 occurred in 83%, 84%, 90%, and 62% of 310 vaccinated PHIV youth compared to 94%, 96%, 99%, and 87% of 148 vaccinated PHEU youth, respectively (P < .05 for all comparisons). GMTs were lower in the PHIV vs PHEU within each category of HPV4 doses received. Higher GMTs were associated with younger age, lower HIV type 1 RNA viral load, and higher CD4% at first HPV4 vaccination, as well as shorter duration between last vaccine dose and antibody specimen. Abnormal cytology occurred in 33 of 56 PHIV and 1 of 7 PHEU sexually active vaccinated females, yielding incidence rates per 100 person-years of 15.0 (10.9 to 20.6) and 2.9 (0.4 to 22.3), respectively. CONCLUSION: Antibody titers to HPV4 were lower for all serotypes in PHIV compared to PHEU youth. Protection against abnormal cytology was also diminished in sexually active PHIV females.

International prospective observational cohort study of Zika in infants and pregnancy (ZIP study): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections were considered mild and self-limiting. Since 2015, they have been associated with an increase in microcephaly and other birth defects in newborns. While this association has been observed in case reports and epidemiological studies, the nature and extent of the relationship between ZIKV and adverse pregnancy and pediatric health outcomes is not well understood. With the unique opportunity to prospectively explore the full spectrum of issues related to ZIKV exposure during pregnancy, we undertook a multi-country, prospective cohort study to evaluate the association between ZIKV and pregnancy, neonatal, and infant outcomes. METHODS: At research sites in ZIKV endemic regions of Brazil (4 sites), Colombia, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico (2 sites), and Peru, up to 10,000 pregnant women will be recruited and consented in the first and early second trimesters of pregnancy and then followed through delivery up to 6 weeks post-partum; their infants will be followed until at least 1 year of age. Pregnant women with symptomatic ZIKV infection confirmed by presence of ZIKV RNA and/or IgM for ZIKV will also be enrolled, regardless of gestational age. Participants will be tested monthly for ZIKV infection; additional demographic, physical, laboratory and environmental data will be collected to assess the potential interaction of these variables with ZIKV infection. Delivery outcomes and detailed infant assessments, including physical and neurological outcomes, will be obtained. DISCUSSION: With the emergence of ZIKV in the Americas and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes in this region, a much better understanding of the spectrum of clinical outcomes associated with exposure to ZIKV during pregnancy is needed. This cohort study will provide information about maternal, fetal, and infant outcomes related to ZIKV infection, including congenital ZIKV syndrome, and manifestations that are not detectable at birth but may appear during the first year of life. In addition, the flexibility of the study design has provided an opportunity to modify study parameters in real time to provide rigorous research data to answer the most critical questions about the impact of congenital ZIKV exposure. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02856984 . Registered August 5, 2016. Retrospectively registered.

Correction to: International prospective observational cohort study of Zika in infants and pregnancy (ZIP study): study protocol.

Following publication of the original article [1], the author mentioned that two additional NIH staff were involved in the development of the protocol who did not receive recognition in the Acknowledgments section in their published article.

The epidemiology of adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV: A cross-region global cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the population of adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV (APHs) continues to expand. In this study, we pooled data from observational pediatric HIV cohorts and cohort networks, allowing comparisons of adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV in "real-life" settings across multiple regions. We describe the geographic and temporal characteristics and mortality outcomes of APHs across multiple regions, including South America and the Caribbean, North America, Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Through the Collaborative Initiative for Paediatric HIV Education and Research (CIPHER), individual retrospective longitudinal data from 12 cohort networks were pooled. All children infected with HIV who entered care before age 10 years, were not known to have horizontally acquired HIV, and were followed up beyond age 10 years were included in this analysis conducted from May 2016 to January 2017. Our primary analysis describes patient and treatment characteristics of APHs at key time points, including first HIV-associated clinic visit, antiretroviral therapy (ART) start, age 10 years, and last visit, and compares these characteristics by geographic region, country income group (CIG), and birth period. Our secondary analysis describes mortality, transfer out, and lost to follow-up (LTFU) as outcomes at age 15 years, using competing risk analysis. Among the 38,187 APHs included, 51% were female, 79% were from sub-Saharan Africa and 65% lived in low-income countries. APHs from 51 countries were included (Europe: 14 countries and 3,054 APHs; North America: 1 country and 1,032 APHs; South America and the Caribbean: 4 countries and 903 APHs; South and Southeast Asia: 7 countries and 2,902 APHs; sub-Saharan Africa, 25 countries and 30,296 APHs). Observation started as early as 1982 in Europe and 1996 in sub-Saharan Africa, and continued until at least 2014 in all regions. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) duration of adolescent follow-up was 3.1 (1.5-5.2) years for the total cohort and 6.4 (3.6-8.0) years in Europe, 3.7 (2.0-5.4) years in North America, 2.5 (1.2-4.4) years in South and Southeast Asia, 5.0 (2.7-7.5) years in South America and the Caribbean, and 2.1 (0.9-3.8) years in sub-Saharan Africa. Median (IQR) age at first visit differed substantially by region, ranging from 0.7 (0.3-2.1) years in North America to 7.1 (5.3-8.6) years in sub-Saharan Africa. The median age at ART start varied from 0.9 (0.4-2.6) years in North America to 7.9 (6.0-9.3) years in sub-Saharan Africa. The cumulative incidence estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) at age 15 years for mortality, transfers out, and LTFU for all APHs were 2.6% (2.4%-2.8%), 15.6% (15.1%-16.0%), and 11.3% (10.9%-11.8%), respectively. Mortality was lowest in Europe (0.8% [0.5%-1.1%]) and highest in South America and the Caribbean (4.4% [3.1%-6.1%]). However, LTFU was lowest in South America and the Caribbean (4.8% [3.4%-6.7%]) and highest in sub-Saharan Africa (13.2% [12.6%-13.7%]). Study limitations include the high LTFU rate in sub-Saharan Africa, which could have affected the comparison of mortality across regions; inclusion of data only for APHs receiving ART from some countries; and unavailability of data from high-burden countries such as Nigeria. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, our study represents the largest multiregional epidemiological analysis of APHs. Despite probable under-ascertained mortality, mortality in APHs remains substantially higher in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and South America and the Caribbean than in Europe. Collaborations such as CIPHER enable us to monitor current global temporal trends in outcomes over time to inform appropriate policy responses.

Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in Rural South Africa: A Comparison of Causal Modeling Approaches.

Estimation of causal effects from observational data is a primary goal of epidemiology. The use of multiple methods with different assumptions relating to exchangeability improves causal inference by demonstrating robustness across assumptions. We estimated the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2007 to 2011, using 2 methods with substantially different assumptions: the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) marginal structural models (MSMs). The RDD analysis took advantage of a CD4-cell-count-based threshold for ART initiation (200 cells/µL). The 2 methods yielded consistent but nonidentical results for the effect of immediate initiation of ART (RDD intention-to-treat hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35, 1.26; RDD complier average causal effect HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.77; IPW MSM HR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.58). Although RDD and IPW MSM estimates have distinct identifying assumptions, strengths, and limitations in terms of internal and external validity, results in this application were similar. The differences in modeling approaches and the external validity of each method may explain the minor differences in effect estimates. The overall consistency of the results lends support for causal inference about the effect of ART on mortality from these data.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 DNA Decay Dynamics With Early, Long-term Virologic Control of Perinatal Infection.

BACKGROUND.: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) limits proviral reservoirs, a goal for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) remission strategies. Whether this is an immediate or long-term effect of virologic suppression (VS) in perinatal infection is unknown. METHODS.: We quantified HIV-1 DNA longitudinally for up to 14 years in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) among 61 perinatally HIV-1-infected youths in the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study who achieved VS at different ages. Participants in group 1 (n = 13) were <1 year of age and in group 2 (n = 48) from 1 through 5 years of age at VS. Piecewise linear mixed-effects regression models assessed the effect of age at VS on HIV-1 DNA trajectories during VS. RESULTS.: In the first 2 years following VS, HIV-1 DNA levels decreased by -0.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], -.36 to -.13) log10 copies/million PBMCs per year and was faster with early VS by age 1 year compared with after age 1 (-0.50 and -0.15 log10 copies/million PBMCs per year, respectively). Between years 2 and 14 from VS, HIV-1 DNA decayed by -0.05 (95% CI, -.06 to -.03) log10 copies/million PBMCs per year and was no longer significantly different between groups. The estimated mean half-life of HIV-1 DNA from VS was 15.9 years and was shorter for group 1 compared to group 2 at 5.9 years and 18.8 years, respectively (P = .09). Adjusting for CD4 cell counts had no effect on decay estimates. CONCLUSIONS.: Early effective, long-term ART initiated from infancy leads to decay of HIV-1-infected cells to exceedingly low concentrations desired for HIV-1 remission strategies.

A Comparison of Agent-Based Models and the Parametric G-Formula for Causal Inference.

Decision-making requires choosing from treatments on the basis of correctly estimated outcome distributions under each treatment. In the absence of randomized trials, 2 possible approaches are the parametric g-formula and agent-based models (ABMs). The g-formula has been used exclusively to estimate effects in the population from which data were collected, whereas ABMs are commonly used to estimate effects in multiple populations, necessitating stronger assumptions. Here, we describe potential biases that arise when ABM assumptions do not hold. To do so, we estimated 12-month mortality risk in simulated populations differing in prevalence of an unknown common cause of mortality and a time-varying confounder. The ABM and g-formula correctly estimated mortality and causal effects when all inputs were from the target population. However, whenever any inputs came from another population, the ABM gave biased estimates of mortality-and often of causal effects even when the true effect was null. In the absence of unmeasured confounding and model misspecification, both methods produce valid causal inferences for a given population when all inputs are from that population. However, ABMs may result in bias when extrapolated to populations that differ on the distribution of unmeasured outcome determinants, even when the causal network linking variables is identical.

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods. DISCUSSION: Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects. CONCLUSION: Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.

Antiretroviral Therapy to Prevent HIV Acquisition in Serodiscordant Couples in a Hyperendemic Community in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was highly efficacious in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in stable serodiscordant couples in the HPTN-052 study, a resource-intensive randomized controlled trial with near-perfect ART adherence and mutual HIV status disclosure among all participating couples. However, minimal evidence exists of the effectiveness of ART in preventing HIV acquisition in stable serodiscordant couples in "real-life" population-based settings in hyperendemic communities of sub-Saharan Africa, where health systems are typically resource-poor and overburdened, adherence to ART is often low, and partners commonly do not disclose their HIV status to each other. METHODS: Data arose from a population-based open cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 17 016 HIV-uninfected individuals present between January 2005 and December 2013 were included. Interval-censored time-updated proportional hazards regression was used to assess how the ART status affected HIV transmission risk in stable serodiscordant relationships. RESULTS: We observed 1619 HIV seroconversions in 17 016 individuals, over 60 349 person-years follow-up time. During the follow-up period, 1846 individuals had an HIV-uninfected and 196 had an HIV-infected stable partner HIV incidence was 3.8/100 person-years (PY) among individuals with an HIV-infected partner (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-5.6), 1.4/100 PY (.4-3.5) among those with HIV-infected partners receiving ART, and 5.6/100 PY (3.5-8.4) among those with HIV-infected partners not receiving ART. Use of ART was associated with a 77% decrease in HIV acquisition risk among serodiscordant couples (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, .07-.80). CONCLUSIONS: ART initiation was associated with a very large reduction in HIV acquisition in serodiscordant couples in rural KwaZulu-Natal. However, this "real-life" effect was substantially lower than the effect observed in the HPTN-052 trial. To eliminate HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples, additional prevention interventions are probably needed.

Antiretroviral Drug Resistance Among Children and Youth in the United States With Perinatal HIV.

Among 234 US youths with perinatal human immunodeficiency virus, 75% had antiretroviral resistance, substantially higher than that of the reference laboratory overall (36%-44%). Resistance to newer antiretrovirals and to all antiretrovirals in a class was uncommon. The only factor independently associated with future resistance was a higher peak viral load.

Can the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic be Eliminated in South Africa Using Combination Prevention? A Modeling Analysis.

Little is known about how combining efficacious interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention could lead to HIV elimination. We used an agent-based simulation model, the HIV calibrated dynamic model, to assess the potential for HIV elimination in South Africa. We examined several scenarios (from continuation of the current status quo to perfect achievement of targets) with differing combinations of male condom use, adult male circumcision, HIV testing, and early antiretroviral therapy (ART). We varied numerous parameters, including the proportion of adult males circumcised, the frequency of condom use during sex acts, acceptance of HIV testing, linkage to health care, criteria for ART initiation, ART viral suppression rates, and loss to follow-up. Maintaining current levels of combination prevention would lead to increasing HIV incidence and prevalence in South Africa, while the perfect combination scenario was projected to eliminate HIV on a 50-year time scale from 2013 to 2063. Perfecting testing and treatment, without changing condom use or circumcision rates, resulted in an 89% reduction in HIV incidence but not elimination. Universal adult male circumcision alone resulted in a 21% incidence reduction within 20 years. Substantial decreases in HIV incidence are possible from sufficient uptake of both primary prevention and ART, but with continuation of the status quo, HIV elimination in South Africa is unlikely within a 50-year time scale.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of early antiretroviral therapy (ART) in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in serodiscordant couples is not known. Using a computer simulation of the progression of HIV infection and data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 study, we projected the cost-effectiveness of early ART for such persons. METHODS: For HIV-infected partners in serodiscordant couples in South Africa and India, we compared the early initiation of ART with delayed ART. Five-year and lifetime outcomes included cumulative HIV transmissions, life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness. We classified early ART as very cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than the annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; $8,100 in South Africa and $1,500 in India), as cost-effective if the ratio was less than three times the GDP, and as cost-saving if it resulted in a decrease in total costs and an increase in life-years, as compared with delayed ART. RESULTS: In South Africa, early ART prevented opportunistic diseases and was cost-saving over a 5-year period; over a lifetime, it was very cost-effective ($590 per life-year saved). In India, early ART was cost-effective ($1,800 per life-year saved) over a 5-year period and very cost-effective ($530 per life-year saved) over a lifetime. In both countries, early ART prevented HIV transmission over short periods, but longer survival attenuated this effect; the main driver of life-years saved was a clinical benefit for treated patients. Early ART remained very cost-effective over a lifetime under most modeled assumptions in the two countries. CONCLUSIONS: In South Africa, early ART was cost-saving over a 5-year period. In both South Africa and India, early ART was projected to be very cost-effective over a lifetime. With individual, public health, and economic benefits, there is a compelling case for early ART for serodiscordant couples in resource-limited settings. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

Aggregate risk of cardiovascular disease among adolescents perinatally infected with the human immunodeficiency virus.

BACKGROUND: Perinatally HIV-infected adolescents may be susceptible to aggregate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, as measured by the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) coronary arteries and abdominal aorta risk scores, as a result of prolonged exposure to HIV and antiretroviral therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary arteries and abdominal aorta PDAY scores were calculated for 165 perinatally HIV-infected adolescents, using a weighted combination of modifiable risk factors: dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking, hypertension, obesity, and hyperglycemia. Demographic and HIV-specific predictors of scores ≥1 were identified, and trends in scores over time were assessed. Forty-eight percent and 24% of the perinatally HIV-infected adolescents had coronary arteries and abdominal aorta scores ≥1, representing increased cardiovascular disease risk factor burden. Significant predictors of coronary arteries scores ≥1 included male sex, history of an AIDS-defining condition, longer duration of use of a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, and no prior use of tenofovir. Significant predictors of abdominal aorta scores ≥1 included suppressed viral load, history of an AIDS-defining condition, and longer duration of boosted protease inhibitor use. No significant changes in coronary arteries and abdominal aorta risk scores were observed over the 4-year study period. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of perinatally HIV-infected youth have high PDAY scores, reflecting increased aggregate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factor burden. High scores were predicted by HIV disease severity and boosted protease inhibitor use. PDAY scores may be useful in identifying high-risk youth who may benefit from early lifestyle or clinical interventions.

Changing Trends in Complications and Mortality Rates Among US Youth and Young Adults With HIV Infection in the Era of Combination Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has resulted in a dramatic decrease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related opportunistic infections and deaths in US youth, but both continue to occur. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of complications and deaths in IMPAACT P1074, a long-term US-based prospective multicenter cohort study conducted from April 2008 to June 2014. Incidence rates of selected diagnoses and trends over time were compared with those from a previous observational cohort study, P219C (2004-2007). Causes of death and relevant demographic and clinical features were reviewed. RESULTS: Among 1201 HIV-infected youth in P1074 (87% perinatally infected; mean [standard deviation] age at last chart review, 20.9 [5.4] years), psychiatric and neurodevelopmental disorders, asthma, pneumonia, and genital tract infections were among the most common comorbid conditions. Compared with findings in P219C, conditions with significantly increased incidence included substance or alcohol abuse, latent tuberculosis, diabetes mellitus, atypical mycobacterial infections, vitamin D deficiency or metabolic bone disorders, anxiety disorders, and fractures; the incidence of pneumonia decreased significantly. Twenty-eight deaths occurred, yielding a standardized mortality rate 31.5 times that of the US population. Those who died were older, less likely to be receiving cART, and had lower CD4 cell counts and higher viral loads. Most deaths (86%) were due to HIV-related medical conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunistic infections and deaths are less common among HIV-infected youth in the US in the cART era, but the mortality rate remains elevated. Deaths were associated with poor HIV control and older age. Emerging complications, such as psychiatric, inflammatory, metabolic, and genital tract diseases, need to be addressed.