ClustR: A Space-Time Cluster Analysis R Package for Individual-level Data.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, large individual-level longitudinal data were unavailable to investigate clusters of disease, driving a need for suitable statistical tools. We introduce a robust, efficient, intuitive R package, ClustR, for space-time cluster analysis of individual-level data. METHODS: We developed ClustR and evaluated the tool using a simulated dataset mirroring the population of California with constructed clusters. We assessed Cluster's performance under various conditions and compared it with another space-time clustering algorithm: SaTScan. RESULTS: ClustR mostly exhibited high sensitivity for urban clusters and low sensitivity for rural clusters. Specificity was generally high. Compared with SaTScan, ClustR ran faster and demonstrated similar sensitivity, but had lower specificity. Select cluster types were detected better by ClustR than SaTScan and vice versa. CONCLUSION: ClustR is a user-friendly, publicly available tool designed to perform efficient cluster analysis on individual-level data, filling a gap among current tools. ClustR and SaTScan exhibited different strengths and may be useful in conjunction.

Spatial-Temporal Cluster Analysis of Childhood Cancer in California.

BACKGROUND: The observance of nonrandom space-time groupings of childhood cancer has been a concern of health professionals and the general public for decades. Many childhood cancers are suspected to have initiated in utero; therefore, we examined the spatial-temporal randomness of the birthplace of children who later developed cancer. METHODS: We performed a space-time cluster analysis using birth addresses of 5,896 cases and 23,369 population-based, age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-matched controls in California from 1997 to 2007, evaluating 20 types of childhood cancer and three a priori designated subgroups of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We analyzed data using a newly designed semiparametric analysis program, ClustR, and a common algorithm, SaTScan. RESULTS: We observed evidence for nonrandom space-time clustering for ALL diagnosed at 2-6 years of age in the South San Francisco Bay Area (ClustR P = 0.04, SaTScan P = 0.07), and malignant gonadal germ cell tumors in a region of Los Angeles (ClustR P = 0.03, SaTScan P = 0.06). ClustR did not identify evidence of clustering for other childhood cancers, although SaTScan suggested some clustering for Hodgkin lymphoma (P = 0.09), astrocytoma (P = 0.06), and retinoblastoma (P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that childhood ALL diagnosed at 2-6 years and malignant gonadal germ cell tumors sporadically occurs in nonrandom space-time clusters. Further research is warranted to identify epidemiologic features that may inform the underlying etiology.

Parental Tobacco Smoking and Acute Myeloid Leukemia: The Childhood Leukemia International Consortium.

The association between tobacco smoke and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is well established in adults but not in children. Individual-level data on parental cigarette smoking were obtained from 12 case-control studies from the Childhood Leukemia International Consortium (CLIC, 1974-2012), including 1,330 AML cases diagnosed at age <15 years and 13,169 controls. We conducted pooled analyses of CLIC studies, as well as meta-analyses of CLIC and non-CLIC studies. Overall, maternal smoking before, during, or after pregnancy was not associated with childhood AML; there was a suggestion, however, that smoking during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk in Hispanics (odds ratio = 2.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20, 3.61) but not in other ethnic groups. By contrast, the odds ratios for paternal lifetime smoking were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.62) and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.51) in pooled and meta-analyses, respectively. Overall, increased risks from 1.2- to 1.3-fold were observed for pre- and postnatal smoking (P < 0.05), with higher risks reported for heavy smokers. Associations with paternal smoking varied by histological type. Our analyses suggest an association between paternal smoking and childhood AML. The association with maternal smoking appears limited to Hispanic children, raising questions about ethnic differences in tobacco-related exposures and biological mechanisms, as well as study-specific biases.

Maternal prenatal intake of one-carbon metabolism nutrients and risk of childhood leukemia.

PURPOSE: Folate, vitamins B12 and B6, riboflavin, and methionine are critical nutrients for the one-carbon metabolism cycle involved in DNA synthesis and epigenetic processes. We examined the association between maternal intake of these nutrients before pregnancy and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in a matched case-control study. METHODS: Maternal dietary intake and vitamin supplement use in the year before pregnancy was assessed by food frequency questionnaire for 681 ALL cases, 103 AML cases, and 1076 controls. Principal component analysis was used to construct a variable representing combined nutrient intake, and conditional logistic regression estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of ALL and AML with the principal component and each nutrient. RESULTS: Higher maternal intake of one-carbon metabolism nutrients from food and supplements combined was associated with reduced risk of ALL (OR for one-unit change in the principal component = 0.91, CI 0.84-0.99) and possibly AML (OR for the principal component = 0.83, CI 0.66-1.04). When analyzed separately, intake of supplements high in these nutrients was associated with a reduced risk of ALL in children of Hispanic women only. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, these data suggest that higher maternal intake of one-carbon metabolism nutrients may reduce risk of childhood leukemia.

Maternal diet quality before pregnancy and risk of childhood leukaemia.

Previous studies on maternal nutrition and childhood leukaemia risk have focused on the role of specific nutrients such as folate and have not considered broader measures of diet quality, which may better capture intake of diverse nutrients known to impact fetal development. We examined the relationship between maternal diet quality before pregnancy, as summarised by a diet quality index, and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in a case-control study in California. Dietary intake in the year before pregnancy was assessed using FFQ in 681 ALL cases, 103 AML cases and 1076 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate OR and 95 % CI for diet quality continuous score and quartiles (Q1-Q4). Higher maternal diet quality score was associated with reduced risk of ALL (OR 0·66; 95 % CI 0·47, 0·93 for Q4 v. Q1) and possibly AML (OR 0·42; 95 % CI 0·15, 1·15 for Q4 v. Q1). No single index component appeared to account for the association. The association of maternal diet quality with risk of ALL was stronger in children diagnosed under the age of 5 years and in children of women who did not report using vitamin supplements before pregnancy. These findings suggest that the joint effects of many dietary components may be important in influencing childhood leukaemia risk.

A task-based assessment of parental occupational exposure to organic solvents and other compounds and the risk of childhood leukemia in California.

PURPOSE: Data on parental occupational exposures and risk of childhood leukemia lack specificity. Using 19 task-based job modules, we examined the relationship between occupational exposure to organic solvents and other compounds and the risk of leukemia in children. METHODS: Latino (48%) and non-Latino (52%) children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL; n=670), acute myeloid leukemia (AML; n=104), and controls (n=1021) were enrolled in a study in California (2000-2008). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for socio-demographic factors. RESULTS: Among children with non-Latino fathers, none of the exposures evaluated were associated with risks of ALL and AML. In contrast, exposure to any organic solvents in Latino fathers was associated with an increased risk of childhood ALL (OR=1.48; 95% CI: 1.01-2.16); in multivariable analyses, the OR for chlorinated hydrocarbons was 2.28 (95% CI: 0.97-5.37) while the ORs were close to one for aromatic hydrocarbons, glycol ethers, and other hydrocarbon mixtures. We also observed an increased risk of ALL with exposure to combustion exhaust/polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (ORs=1.70; 95% CI: 1.16-2.57, and 1.46; 95% CI: 0.94-2.26 with and without adjustment for chlorinated hydrocarbons, respectively). Moderately elevated risks of ALL were seen with exposure to metals, paints, and wood dust, although not statistically significant. An increased risk was reported for asbestos based on small numbers of exposed Latino fathers. No associations were reported between maternal exposures to any exposures and childhood ALL and AML. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support associations between paternal occupational exposures to chlorinated hydrocarbons, combustion exhaust, metals, and possibly asbestos and the risk of ALL in the children of Latino fathers only.

Ocular Surface Cooling Corresponds to Tear Film Thinning and Breakup.

PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between ocular surface temperature (OST) and tear film thinning and breakup. METHODS: Simultaneous imaging of OST and fluorescein tear thinning and breakup (FTBU) was performed on 20 subjects. Subjects were asked to open their eyes and refrain from blinking for as long as they could during testing. Ocular surface temperature was measured using an infrared thermographic camera (FLIR A655sc) and rates of ocular surface cooling (OSC) were analyzed using commercially available software. A method was developed to quantify the rate of FTBU formation using image-processing software. RESULTS: Areas of FTBU and regions of OSC were observed to be colocalized, with localized cooling preceding the formation of FTBU. The rates of OSC and FTBU formation were positively correlated (r = 0.74). A second-order polynomial model accurately describes the physiological relationship between the area of FTBU and OST (p < 0.001). A linear approximation provides a more clinically interpretable rate of FTBU formation with decreasing OST (p < 0.001), while still retaining high R. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a direct relationship between FTBU formation and OSC. That cooling of the ocular surface precedes FTBU formation implies a process of evaporation contributing to tear film thinning and breakup. Our study suggests that measuring the OSC rate could be an indirect assessment of tear evaporation and could contribute to the management of evaporative dry eye.

Maternal supplementation with folic acid and other vitamins and risk of leukemia in offspring: a Childhood Leukemia International Consortium study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal prenatal supplementation with folic acid and other vitamins has been inconsistently associated with a reduced risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Little is known regarding the association with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), a rarer subtype. METHODS: We obtained original data on prenatal use of folic acid and vitamins from 12 case-control studies participating in the Childhood Leukemia International Consortium (enrollment period: 1980-2012), including 6,963 cases of ALL, 585 cases of AML, and 11,635 controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for child's age, sex, ethnicity, parental education, and study center. RESULTS: Maternal supplements taken any time before conception or during pregnancy were associated with a reduced risk of childhood ALL; odds ratios were 0.85 (95% CI = 0.78-0.92) for vitamin use and 0.80 (0.71-0.89) for folic acid use. The reduced risk was more pronounced in children whose parents' education was below the highest category. The analyses for AML led to somewhat unstable estimates; ORs were 0.92 (0.75-1.14) and 0.68 (0.48-0.96) for prenatal vitamins and folic acid, respectively. There was no strong evidence that risks of either types of leukemia varied by period of supplementation (preconception, pregnancy, or trimester). CONCLUSIONS: Our results, based on the largest number of childhood leukemia cases to date, suggest that maternal prenatal use of vitamins and folic acid reduces the risk of both ALL and AML and that the observed association with ALL varied by parental education, a surrogate for lifestyle and sociodemographic characteristics.

HLA-DP genetic variation, proxies for early life immune modulation and childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia risk.

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes are candidate genetic susceptibility loci for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We examined the effect of HLA-DP genetic variation on risk and evaluated its potential interaction with 4 proxies for early immune modulation, including measures of infectious exposures in infancy (presence of older siblings, daycare attendance, ear infections) and breastfeeding. A total of 585 ALL cases and 848 controls were genotyped at the HLA-DPA1 and DPB1 loci. Because of potential heterogeneity in effect by race/ethnicity, we included only non-Hispanic white (47%) and Hispanic (53%) children and considered these 2 groups separately in the analysis. Logistic regression analyses showed an increased risk of ALL associated with HLA-DPB1*01:01 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.43, 95% CI, 1.01-2.04) with no heterogeneity by Hispanic ethnicity (P = .969). Analyses of DPB1 supertypes showed a marked childhood ALL association with DP1, particularly for high-hyperdiploid ALL (OR = 1.83; 95% CI, 1.20-2.78). Evidence of interaction was found between DP1 and older sibling (P = .036), and between DP1 and breastfeeding (P = .094), with both showing statistically significant DP1 associations within the lower exposure categories only. These findings support an immune mechanism in the etiology of childhood ALL involving the HLA-DPB1 gene in the context of an insufficiently modulated immune system.

Socioeconomic status and lung cancer: unraveling the contribution of genetic admixture.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the relationship between genetic ancestry, socioeconomic status (SES), and lung cancer among African Americans and Latinos. METHODS: We evaluated SES and genetic ancestry in a Northern California lung cancer case-control study (1998-2003) of African Americans and Latinos. Lung cancer case and control participants were frequency matched on age, gender, and race/ethnicity. We assessed case-control differences in individual admixture proportions using the 2-sample t test and analysis of covariance. Logistic regression models examined associations among genetic ancestry, socioeconomic characteristics, and lung cancer. RESULTS: Decreased Amerindian ancestry was associated with higher education among Latino control participants and greater African ancestry was associated with decreased education among African lung cancer case participants. Education was associated with lung cancer among both Latinos and African Americans, independent of smoking, ancestry, age, and gender. Genetic ancestry was not associated with lung cancer among African Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that socioeconomic factors may have a greater impact than genetic ancestry on lung cancer among African Americans. The genetic heterogeneity and recent dynamic migration and acculturation of Latinos complicate recruitment; thus, epidemiological analyses and findings should be interpreted cautiously.

Early life exposure to infections and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Evidence from a growing number of studies indicates that exposure to common infections early in life may be protective against childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We examined the relationship between three measures of early life exposure to infections-daycare attendance, birth order and common childhood infections in infancy-with the risk of ALL in non-Hispanic white and Hispanic children, two ethnicities that show sociodemographic differences. The analysis included 669 ALL cases (284 non-Hispanic whites and 385 Hispanics) and 977 controls (458 non-Hispanic whites and 519 Hispanics) ages 1-14 years enrolled in the Northern California Childhood Leukemia Study (NCCLS). When the three measures were evaluated separately, daycare attendance by the age of 6 months (odds ratio [OR] for each thousand child-hours of exposure = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.82-1.00) and birth order (OR for having an older sibling = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50-0.92) were associated with a reduced risk of ALL among non-Hispanic white children but not Hispanic children, whereas ear infection before age 6 months was protective in both ethnic groups. When the three measures were assessed simultaneously, the influence of daycare attendance (OR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73-0.94) and having an older sibling (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.43-0.83) became stronger for non-Hispanic white children. In Hispanic children, a strong reduction in risk associated with ear infections persisted (OR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.25-0.79). Evidence of a protective role for infection-related exposures early in life is supported by findings in both the non-Hispanic white and Hispanic populations within the NCCLS.

Is house-dust nicotine a good surrogate for household smoking?

The literature is inconsistent regarding associations between parental smoking and childhood leukemia, possibly because previous studies used self-reported smoking habits as surrogates for children's true exposures to cigarette smoke. Here, the authors investigated the use of nicotine concentrations in house dust as measures of children's exposure to cigarette smoke in 469 households from the Northern California Childhood Leukemia Study (1999-2007). House dust was collected by using high-volume surface samplers and household vacuum cleaners and was analyzed for nicotine via gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Using multivariable linear regression, the authors evaluated the effects of self-reported parental smoking, parental demographics, house characteristics, and other covariates on house-dust nicotine concentrations. They observed that nicotine concentrations in house dust were associated with self-reported smoking for periods of months and years before dust collection. Furthermore, the authors found that the relation between nicotine dust levels and self-reported smoking varied by parental age and socioeconomic status. These findings suggest that house-dust nicotine concentrations reflect long-term exposures to cigarette smoke in the home and that they may be less biased surrogates for children's exposures to cigarette smoke than self-reported smoking habits.

Household exposure to paint and petroleum solvents, chromosomal translocations, and the risk of childhood leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the association between home use of solvents and paint and the risk of childhood leukemia. OBJECTIVES: In this case-control study, we examined whether the use of paint and petroleum solvents at home before birth and in early childhood influenced the risk of leukemia in children. METHODS: We based our analyses on 550 cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), 100 cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and one or two controls per case individually matched for sex, age, Hispanic status, and race. We conducted further analyses by cytogenetic subtype. We used conditional logistic regression techniques to adjust for income. RESULTS: ALL risk was significantly associated with paint exposure [odds ratio (OR) = 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-2.15], with a higher risk observed when paint was used postnatally, by a person other than the mother, or frequently. The association was restricted to leukemia with translocations between chromosomes 12 and 21 (OR = 4.16; 95% CI, 1.66-10.4). We found no significant association between solvent use and ALL risk overall (OR = 1.15; 95% CI, 0.87-1.51) or for various cytogenetic subtypes, but we observed a significant association in the 2.0- to 5.9-year age group (OR = 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07-2.25). In contrast, a significant increased risk for AML was associated with solvent (OR = 2.54; 95% CI, 1.19-5.42) but not with paint exposure (OR = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.32-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: The association of ALL risk with paint exposure was strong, consistent with a causal relationship, but further studies are needed to confirm the association of ALL and AML risk with solvent exposure.

The estimated probability of dizygotic twins: a comparison of two methods.

This study presents a general model of two binary variables and applies it to twin sex pairing data from 21 twin data sources to estimate the frequency of dizygotic twins. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between maximum likelihood and Weinberg's differential rule zygosity estimation methods. We explore the accuracy of these zygosity estimation measures in relation to twin ascertainment methods and the probability of a male. Twin sex pairing data from 21 twin data sources representing 15 countries was collected for use in this study. Maximum likelihood estimation of the probability of dizygotic twins is applied to describe the variation in the frequency of dizygotic twin births. The differences between maximum likelihood and Weinberg's differential rule zygosity estimation methods are presented as a function of twin data ascertainment method and the probability of a male. Maximum likelihood estimation of the probability of dizygotic twins ranges from 0.083 (95% approximate CI: 0.082, 0.085) to 0.750 (95% approximate CI: 0.749, 0.752) for voluntary ascertainment data sources and from 0.374 (95% approximate CI: 0.373, 0.375) to 0.987 (95% approximate CI: 0.959, 1.016) for active ascertainment data sources. In 17 of the 21 twin data sources differences of 0.01 or less occur between maximum likelihood and Weinberg zygosity estimation methods. The Weinberg and maximum likelihood estimates are negligibly different in most applications. Using the above general maximum likelihood estimate, the probability of a dizygotic twin is subject to substantial variation that is largely a function of twin data ascertainment method.

Trends in the probability of twins and males in California, 1983-2003.

This study examines the probability of twins by birth year, maternal race-ethnicity, age, and parity and the influences of these demographic factors on the probability of male in twins and singletons in a large, racially diverse population. Recent publications note steep increases in twin births while the probability of male births has been reported to vary by parental race-ethnicity and age and birth order. Probability of male stratified by plurality has not been investigated in California prior to this study. Cubic spline estimates and Poisson regression techniques were employed to describe trends in twins and males using California vital statistics birth and fetal death records over the period from 1983-2003. This study includes 127,787 twin pair and 11,025,106 singleton births. The probability of twins varied by birth year, maternal race-ethnicity, age, and parity. The probability of twins increased by 10.1% from 1983-1992 and increased by 20.1% from 1993-2003, nearly doubling the previous increase. All maternal race-ethnicity groups showed increases in probability of twins with increasing maternal age. Parous women compared to nulliparous women had larger increases in the probability of twins. The probability of males in twins decreased from 1983-1992 and increased from 1993-2003; while in singletons the probability appeared unchanged. These findings show increases in the probability of twins in California from 1983-2003 and identify maternal age, race-ethnicity, and parity groups most likely to conceive twins. The cause of the increase in twins is unknown but coincides with trends towards delayed childbearing and increased use of subfertility treatments.

Comparison of statistical methods for estimating genetic admixture in a lung cancer study of African Americans and Latinos.

A variety of methods are available for estimating genetic admixture proportions in populations; however, few investigators have conducted detailed comparisons using empirical data. The authors characterized admixture proportions among self-identified African Americans (n = 535) and Latinos (n = 412) living in the San Francisco Bay Area who participated in a lung cancer case-control study (1998-2003). Individual estimates of genetic ancestry based on 184 informative markers were obtained from a Bayesian approach and 2 maximum likelihood approaches and were compared using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman plots. Case-control differences in individual admixture proportions were assessed using 2-sample t tests and logistic regression analysis. Results indicated that Bayesian and frequentist approaches to estimating admixture provide similar estimates and inferences. No difference was observed in admixture proportions between African-American cases and controls, but Latino cases and controls significantly differed according to Amerindian and European genetic ancestry. Differences in admixture proportions between Latino cases and controls were not unexpected, since cases were more likely to have been born in the United States. Genetic admixture proportions provide a quantitative measure of ancestry differences among Latinos that can be used in analyses of genetic risk factors.

NTD prevalences in central California before and after folic acid fortification.

BACKGROUND: In many regions, NTD prevalences were already declining prior to folic acid fortification. This study examined whether the declining prefortification (1989-1996) NTD prevalences continued into the postfortification period (1998-2003) in selected California counties. METHODS: This population-based study used vital statistics data and birth defects registry data that were actively ascertained from medical records. The study population included all live births and stillbirths delivered in central California counties from 1989 to 2003. Cases included deliveries with NTDs during the same time period. RESULTS: For all NTDs combined, the slopes indicated that NTD prevalence was decreasing by 7.5 (slope: -7.5; 95% CI: -12.4, -2.5) cases per 100,000 deliveries per year before fortification, whereas NTD prevalence was no longer decreasing after fortification. Comparison of the difference in the two slopes indicated that the postfortification slope exceeded the prefortification slope by 12.6 (95% CI: 2.6, 22.6) cases per 100,000 deliveries per year. CONCLUSIONS: Annual NTD prevalences in central California did not continue to decrease after implementation of folic acid fortification.

Allergies and Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Case-Control Study and Meta-analysis.

Background: Allergic disease is suspected to play a role in the development of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Studies conducted over the last several decades have yielded mixed results.Methods: We examined the association between allergy, a common immune-mediated disorder, and ALL in the California Childhood Leukemia Study (CCLS), a case-control study of 977 children diagnosed with ALL and 1,037 matched controls (1995-2015). History of allergies in the first year of life was obtained from interviews, mainly reported by mothers. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for birth order, daycare attendance, and mode of delivery. In addition, we conducted meta-analyses with data from the CCLS and 12 published studies and employed a new method to estimate between-study heterogeneity (R_b).Results: Overall, no associations were observed between childhood ALL risk and specific allergy phenotypes or any allergy, as a group. However, having any allergy was associated with an increased risk of ALL among the youngest study participants. In the meta-analysis random-effects models, reduced odds of ALL were associated with hay fever (metaOR = 0.65; 95% CI, 0.47-0.90); however, restricting the analysis to studies that used medical records for assessment of allergy or recently published studies led to null or attenuated results.Conclusions: Overall, our findings do not support a clear association between allergy and childhood ALL.Impact: The degree to which epidemiologic studies can inform the relationship between allergies and risk of childhood ALL is limited by R_b. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(10); 1142-50. ©2018 AACR.

Acute myocardial infarction mortality in comparison with lung and bladder cancer mortality in arsenic-exposed region II of Chile from 1950 to 2000.

Arsenic in drinking water is known to be a cause of lung, bladder, and skin cancer, and some studies report cardiovascular disease effects. The authors investigated mortality from 1950 to 2000 in the arsenic-exposed region II of Chile (population: 477,000 in 2000) in comparison with the unexposed region V. Increased risks were found for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), with mortality rate ratios of 1.48 for men (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37, 1.59; p < 0.001) and 1.26 for women (95% CI: 1.14, 1.40; p < 0.001) during the high-exposure period in region II from 1958 to 1970. The highest rate ratios were for young adult men aged 30-49 years who were born during the high-exposure period with probable exposure in utero and in early childhood (rate ratio = 3.23, 95% CI: 2.79, 3.75; p < 0.001). Compared with lung and bladder cancer, AMI mortality was the predominant cause of excess deaths during and immediately after the high-exposure period. Ten years after reduction of exposures, AMI mortality had decreased, and longer latency excess deaths from lung and bladder cancer predominated. With these three causes of death combined, increased mortality peaked in 1991-1995, with estimated excess deaths related to arsenic exposure constituting 10.9% of all deaths among men and 4.0% among women.

Clustering in the incidence of myelodysplastic syndromes.

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a group of malignancies with poor prognosis and obscure etiology. To better understand the distribution of MDS in the population and help generate etiologic hypotheses, we assessed potential clustering in the incidence of MDS in the state of Connecticut using population-based cancer registry data that recently became available. A significant spatial clustering was identified. The most likely area with a high incidence of MDS included 46 census tracts near the west border of Connecticut, and the ratio of observed/expected cases was 2.84. The P value associated with this cluster was 0.0001. Although no temporal clustering was indicated, a space-time analysis identified a cluster in the central south of Connecticut from March 2002 through August 2003 (P=0.008). This is the first analysis of potential clustering in the incidence of MDS using population-based data. If the intriguing finding on spatial clustering is supported by future studies with larger sample sizes and/or in other geographic areas, it would be extremely interesting to explore the "causes" of clustering, which may help shed light on the etiology of MDS.