Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Regulatory Review Duration and Differences in Submission Times of Drugs in the United States and Europe, 2011 to 2020.

The speed of drug regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe is often a source of discussion. The objective of this research was to assess regulatory review duration of first and supplementary indications approved between 2011 and 2020 in the United States and Europe (European Union [EU] and Switzerland) and differences in submission times between the United States and Europe. Descriptive statistics were applied to review times between the jurisdictions and across the therapeutic areas. A regression analysis was done to estimate the association between approval agency and review times. The primary analysis cohort included 241 drugs approved in the United States, the EU, and Switzerland. Of these, 128 drugs had supplemental indications (331 in total) in the United States and 87 had supplemental indications (206 in total) in the EU. Overall median review duration from submission to approval subtracting the clock stop period was 39 weeks in the United States, 44 weeks in the EU, and 44 weeks in Switzerland. When review times within each drug were compared, the European Medicines Agency took a median of 3.7 weeks (IQR, -6.7 to 14.9 weeks) longer than the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Swissmedic a median of 0.3 weeks (IQR, -10.6 to 15.3 weeks) longer. Median total review duration for supplemental indications was 26 weeks in the United States and 40 weeks in the EU. Applications were submitted a median of 1.3 and 17.9 weeks later in the EU and Switzerland, respectively, than in the United States. The regression analysis showed small differences in submission times between the United States and the EU (-2.1 weeks [95% CI, -11.7 to 7.6 weeks]) and larger differences between the United States and Switzerland (33.0 weeks [CI, 23.1 to 42.8 weeks]). It would be beneficial for patients if differences in submission times between the United States and Europe continue to be minimized.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Nationwide indoor smoking ban and impact on smoking behaviour and lung function: a two-population natural experiment.

INTRODUCTION: Many countries have implemented indoor smoking bans over the past two decades. Although smoking bans have been shown to reduce cardiovascular outcomes, little is known about their impact on respiratory health. This study investigated the impact of a nationwide indoor smoking ban on smoking behaviour and lung function. METHODS: We used repeated cross-sectional data from two large cohorts of the general population comprising 31 807 Swiss and 62 093 Danish adults. We compared associations between smoking ban and smoking prevalence and prebronchodilator lung function trends in Denmark (indoor smoking ban introduced in 2007) and Switzerland (indoor smoking ban introduced in 2010) from 2005 to 2010 using a quasi-experimental study design. We performed difference-in-difference analyses with linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, weight and height. RESULTS: Denmark had a stronger decrease in active smokers compared with Switzerland. Also, forced expiratory volume in the first second was higher in Danish adults than in Swiss adults: 26 mL (95% CI 2.4 to 49) 1 year, 88 mL (65 to 112) 2 years, and 74 mL (51 to 98) 3 years after smoking ban implementation. Correspondingly, forced vital capacity was higher in Danish adults compared with Swiss adults (80 mL (50 to 109) after 1 year and 126 mL (97 to 155) after two and 3 years). Improvements were observed in both never-smokers and ever-smokers, most pronounced in ever-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide indoor smoking ban is associated with less smoking and improved lung function in the general population. Implementing an indoor smoking ban can improve lung function by influencing smoking behaviour and reducing secondhand smoke.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Real-World Cost-Effectiveness of Pulmonary Vein Isolation for Atrial Fibrillation: A Target Trial Approach.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for treating atrial fibrillation (AF) have proven the procedure's efficacy. Studies assessing its empirical cost-effectiveness outside randomized trial settings are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PVI versus medical therapy for AF. METHODS: We followed a target trial approach using the Swiss-AF cohort, a prospective observational cohort study that enrolled patients with AF between 2014 and 2017. Resource utilization and cost information were collected through claims data. Quality of life was measured with EQ-5D-3L utilities. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the perspective of the Swiss statutory health insurance system. RESULTS: Patients undergoing PVI compared with medical therapy had a 5-year overall survival advantage with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI 0.46-1.21; P = .69) and a 19.8% SD improvement in quality of life (95% CI 15.5-22.9; P < .001), at an incremental cost of 29 604 Swiss francs (CHF) (95% CI 16 354-42 855; P < .001). The estimated ICER was CHF 158 612 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained within a 5-year time horizon. Assuming similar health effects and costs over 5 additional years changed the ICER to CHF 82 195 per QALY gained. Results were robust to the sensitivity analyses performed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that PVI might be a cost-effective intervention within the Swiss healthcare context in a 10-year time horizon, but unlikely to be so at 5 years, if a willingness-to-pay threshold of CHF 100 000 per QALY gained is assumed. Given data availability, we find target trial designs are a valuable tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions outside of randomized controlled trial settings.

Low Accuracy of FIB-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores for Screening for Liver Fibrosis in the Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) are the 2 most popular noninvasive blood-based serum tests proposed for widespread fibrosis screening. We therefore aimed to describe the accuracy of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated liver stiffness as an indicator of hepatic fibrosis in low-prevalence populations. METHODS: This study included a total of 5129 patients with concomitant measurement of FIB-4, NFS, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan (Echosens, France) from 5 independent population-based cohorts from Spain, Hong Kong, Denmark, England, and France; 3979 participants from the general population and 1150 from at-risk cohorts due to alcohol, diabetes, or obesity. We correlated LSM with FIB-4 and NFS, and calculated pre- and post-test predictive values of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated LSM at 8 kPa and 12 kPa cutoffs. The mean age was 53 ± 12 years, the mean body mass index was 27 ± 5 kg/m2, and 2439 (57%) were women. One in 10 patients (552; 11%) had liver stiffness ≥8 kPa, but 239 of those (43%) had a normal FIB-4, and 171 (31%) had normal NFS. The proportion of false-negatives was higher in at-risk patients than the general population. FIB-4 was false-negative in 11% of diabetic subjects, compared with 2.5% false-negatives with NFS. Waist circumference outperformed FIB-4 and NFS for detecting LSM ≥8 kPa in the general population. Almost one-third (28%-29%) of elevated FIB-4/NFS were false-positive in both the general population and at-risk cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: FIB-4 and NFS are suboptimal for screening purposes due to a high risk of overdiagnosis and a non-negligible percentage of false-negatives, especially in patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Waist circumference emerged as a potential first step to identify patients at risk for liver fibrosis in the general population.

Quality of Colonoscopy Is Associated With Adenoma Detection and Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer Prevention in Lynch Syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colonoscopy reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in Lynch syndrome (LS) carriers. However, a high incidence of postcolonoscopy CRC (PCCRC) has been reported. Colonoscopy is highly dependent on endoscopist skill and is subject to quality variability. We aimed to evaluate the impact of key colonoscopy quality indicators on adenoma detection and prevention of PCCRC in LS. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter study focused on LS carriers without previous CRC undergoing colonoscopy surveillance (n = 893). Incident colorectal neoplasia during surveillance and quality indicators of all colonoscopies were analyzed. We performed an emulated target trial comparing the results from the first and second surveillance colonoscopies to assess the effect of colonoscopy quality indicators on adenoma detection and PCCRC incidence. Risk analyses were conducted using a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative incidence of adenoma and PCCRC was 60.6% (95% CI, 55.5%-65.2%) and 7.9% (95% CI, 5.2%-10.6%), respectively. Adequate bowel preparation (odds ratio [OR], 2.07; 95% CI, 1.06-4.3), complete colonoscopies (20% vs 0%; P = .01), and pan-chromoendoscopy use (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.15-3.95) were associated with significant improvement in adenoma detection. PCCRC risk was significantly lower when colonoscopies were performed during a time interval of less than every 3 years (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14-0.97). We observed a consistent but not significant reduction in PCCRC risk for a previous complete examination (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-1.28), adequate bowel preparation (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.17-3.24), or previous use of high-definition colonoscopy (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.02-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: Complete colonoscopies with adequate bowel preparation and chromoendoscopy use are associated with improved adenoma detection, while surveillance intervals of less than 3 years are associated with a reduction of PCCRC incidence. In LS, high-quality colonoscopy surveillance is of utmost importance for CRC prevention.

Decompensation in Advanced Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease May Occur at Lower Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Levels Than in Patients With Viral Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Portal hypertension is the strongest predictor of hepatic decompensation and death in patients with cirrhosis. However, its discriminatory accuracy in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been challenged because hepatic vein catheterization may not reflect the real portal vein pressure as accurately as in patients with other etiologies. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and presence of portal hypertension-related decompensation in patients with advanced NAFLD (aNAFLD). METHODS: Multicenter cross-sectional study included 548 patients with aNAFLD and 444 with advanced RNA-positive hepatitis C (aHCV) who had detailed portal hypertension evaluation (HVPG measurement, gastroscopy, and abdominal imaging). We examined the relationship between etiology, HVPG, and decompensation by logistic regression models. We also compared the proportions of compensated/decompensated patients at different HVPG levels. RESULTS: Both cohorts, aNAFLD and aHVC, had similar baseline age, gender, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. Median HVPG was lower in the aNAFLD cohort (13 vs 15 mmHg) despite similar liver function and higher rates of decompensation in aNAFLD group (32% vs 25%; P = .019) than in the aHCV group. For any of the HVPG cutoff analyzed (<10, 10-12, or 12 mmHg) the prevalence of decompensation was higher in the aNAFLD group than in the aHCV group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with aNAFLD have higher prevalence of portal hypertension-related decompensation at any value of HVPG as compared with aHCV patients. Longitudinal studies aiming to identify HVPG thresholds able to predict decompensation and long-term outcomes in aNAFLD population are strongly needed.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

Surgeons' risk perception in ASD surgery: The value of objective risk assessment on decision making and patient counselling.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons often rely on their intuition, experience and published data for surgical decision making and informed consent. Literature provides average values that do not allow for individualized assessments. Accurate validated machine learning (ML) risk calculators for adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients, based on 10 year multicentric prospective data, are currently available. The objective of this study is to assess surgeon ASD risk perception and compare it to validated risk calculator estimates. METHODS: Nine ASD complete (demographics, HRQL, radiology, surgical plan) preoperative cases were distributed online to 100 surgeons from 22 countries. Surgeons were asked to determine the risk of major complications and reoperations at 72 h, 90 d and 2 years postop, using a 0-100% risk scale. The same preoperative parameters circulated to surgeons were used to obtain ML risk calculator estimates. Concordance between surgeons' responses was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). Distance between surgeons' and risk calculator predictions was assessed using the mean index of agreement (MIA) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). RESULTS: Thirty-nine surgeons (74.4% with > 10 years' experience), from 12 countries answered the survey. Surgeons' risk perception concordance was very low and heterogeneous. ICC ranged from 0.104 (reintervention risk at 72 h) to 0.316 (reintervention risk at 2 years). Distance between calculator and surgeon prediction was very large. MIA ranged from 0.122 to 0.416. Surgeons tended to overestimate the risk of major complications and reintervention in the first 72 h and underestimated the same risks at 2 years postop. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that expert surgeon ASD risk perception is heterogeneous and highly discordant. Available validated ML ASD risk calculators can enable surgeons to provide more accurate and objective prognosis to adjust patient expectations, in real time, at the point of care.

Machine Learning-Based Clustering Analysis: Foundational Concepts, Methods, and Applications.

Unsupervised learning, the task of clustering observations in such a way that observations within cluster are more similar than those assigned to other clusters is one the central tasks of data science. Its exploratory and descriptive nature make it one of the most underused and underappreciated methods. In the present chapter we describe its core function with applied examples, explore different approaches, and discuss meaningful applications of the approach for the practicing researcher.

Fecal MicroRNA-Based Algorithm Increases Effectiveness of Fecal Immunochemical Test-Based Screening for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: An algorithm based on fecal levels of 2 microRNAs (miR-421 and miR-27a-3p), fecal hemoglobin concentration, and patient age and sex can identify patients with advanced colorectal neoplasia. We investigated whether this algorithm, called miRFec, could increase effectiveness and efficiency of fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. METHODS: We obtained data and fecal samples from 767 persons with a positive result from the FIT who then underwent colonoscopy examination while participating a population-based CRC screening program, from March 2011 through May 2017 in Barcelona, Spain. Fecal miRNAs were isolated from the buffer contained in the original FIT collection device and analyzed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR. Aims were to evaluate the usefulness of the miRFec algorithm in identifying persons at greatest risk for CRC who should be prioritized for colonoscopy examination and individuals at low risk for whom colonoscopy could be avoided. RESULTS: Of the 767 study subjects, 414 (54.0%) were found by colonoscopy to have advanced colorectal neoplasia (67 with CRC and 347 with advanced adenomas) and 353 (46.0%) were found to have either non-advanced adenomas (n = 136) or a normal examination (n = 217). MiRFec algorithm scores (1-4) were independently associated with the presence of advanced colorectal neoplasia (P < .001). The miRFec algorithm differentiated patients with CRC from those with non-advanced adenomas or normal colonoscopy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90% (95% CI, 86-94). Subjects with miRFec scores in the 4th quartile (above 3.09, high-risk group) were 8-fold more likely to have advanced colorectal neoplasia than subjects with miRFec scores in the 1st quartile (below 2.14, low-risk group). Subjects in the low-risk group had a positive predictive value below 30% for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. When we used a 50% specificity cut-off value, the miRFec algorithm identified 97% of patients with CRC and would allow 264 subjects (34.4%) to avoid colonoscopy examination. CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm based on fecal levels of 2 miRNAs and hemoglobin, patient age and sex (miRFec) differentiated patients with CRC from those with non-advanced adenomas or normal colonoscopy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 90% and avoided 34% of colonoscopies. Inclusion of this algorithm in FIT-based CRC screening programs could increase their effectiveness and efficiency.

Identification and Validation of MicroRNA Profiles in Fecal Samples for Detection of Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is effective in the population at average risk. The most extended strategy in organized programs involves the fecal immunochemical test, which is limited by low sensitivity for the detection of advanced adenomas (AAs). We aimed to identify microRNA (miRNA) signatures in fecal samples that identify patients with AAs or CRC and might be used in noninvasive screening. METHODS: Our study comprised 4 stages. In the discovery phase, we performed genome-wide miRNA expression profiling of 124 fresh, paired colorectal tumor and nontumor samples (30 CRC; 32 AAs) from patients in Spain. In the technical validation stage, miRNAs with altered expression levels in tumor vs nontumor tissues were quantified by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction in fecal samples from a subset of patients included in the discovery phase (n = 39) and individuals without colorectal neoplasms (controls, n = 39). In the clinical validation stage, the miRNAs found to be most significantly up-regulated by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction analysis were measured in an independent set of fecal samples (n = 767) from patients with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in a CRC screening program. Finally, we developed a model to identify patients with advanced neoplasms (CRCs or AAs) based on their miRNA profiles, using findings from colonoscopy as the reference standard. RESULTS: Among 200 and 324 miRNAs significantly deregulated in CRC and AA tissues, respectively, 7 and 5 of these miRNAs were also found to be deregulated in feces (technical validation). Of them, MIR421, MIR130b-3p, and MIR27a-3p were confirmed to be upregulated in fecal samples from patients with advanced neoplasms. In our model, the combination of fecal level of MIR421, MIR27a-3p, and hemoglobin identified patients with CRC with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93, compared with an AUC of 0.67 for fecal hemoglobin concentration alone. CONCLUSIONS: We found that increased levels of 2 miRNAs and hemoglobin in feces can identify patients with AAs or CRC more accurately than fecal hemoglobin concentration alone. Assays for these miRNAs might be added to fecal tests for the detection of CRC or AAs.

The dynamics of satisfaction in surgical and non-surgical adult spinal deformity patients.

PURPOSE: For adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients receiving operative (op) and non-operative (non-op) treatment, the relationship between HRQoL measures, complications and self-reported satisfaction remains unclear. The objective of this analysis is to study nonlinear association dynamics between ASD patient satisfaction, HRQoL, and complications over a two-year follow-up period. METHODS: From a prospective multicenter international adult spinal deformity database, all patients with 2-year follow-up data on satisfaction (21st question of SRS-22r) were identified and included. A total of 12 LOESS (local polynomial fit) regressions were performed between patient satisfaction (SRS22 item 21) and HRQoL measures (ODI, SF36PCS and SRS22 subtotal) interacting with surgery at baseline, 6 months and 1 and 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 856 patients (527 op and 329 non-op) were included. At baseline, satisfaction was lower for patients scheduled for surgery even when HRQL was similar to those elected for conservative treatment. The nonlinear correlations showed that for similar PROMs, op patients reached higher satisfaction levels during follow-up, especially at six months. In fact, at six months operated patients with a deterioration of their initial PROMs had some improvement in their satisfaction, which could not be further observed at the end of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction does not correlate well with other PROMs, and it might be subject to other external factors not directly related to treatment. Even if patient satisfaction is important in evaluating well-being and patient's experience with medical care, it should not be considered as an isolated proxy to measure quality of treatment.

Accuracy of the Narrow-Band Imaging International Colorectal Endoscopic Classification System in Identification of Deep Invasion in Colorectal Polyps.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: T1 colorectal polyps with at least 1 risk factor for metastasis to lymph node should be treated surgically and are considered endoscopically unresectable. Optical analysis, based on the Narrow-Band Imaging International Colorectal Endoscopic (NICE) classification system, is used to identify neoplasias with invasion of the submucosa that require endoscopic treatment. We assessed the accuracy of the NICE classification, along with other morphologic characteristics, in identifying invasive polyps that are endoscopically unresectable (have at least 1 risk factor for metastasis to lymph node). METHODS: We performed a multicenter, prospective study of data collected by 58 endoscopists, from 1634 consecutive patients (examining 2123 lesions) at 17 university and community hospitals in Spain from July 2014 through June 2016. All consecutive lesions >10 mm assessed with narrow-band imaging were included. The primary end point was the accuracy of the NICE classification for identifying lesions with deep invasion, using findings from histology analysis as the reference standard. Conditional inference trees were fitted for the analysis of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Of the 2123 lesions analyzed, 89 (4.2%) had features of deep invasion and 91 (4.3%) were endoscopically unresectable. The NICE classification system identified lesions with deep invasion with 58.4% sensitivity (95% CI, 47.5-68.8), 96.4% specificity (95% CI, 95.5-97.2), a positive-predictive value of 41.6% (95% CI, 32.9-50.8), and a negative-predictive value of 98.1% (95% CI, 97.5-98.7). A conditional inference tree that included all variables found the NICE classification to most accurately identify lesions with deep invasion (P < .001). However, pedunculated morphology (P < .007), ulceration (P = .026), depressed areas (P < .001), or nodular mixed type (P < .001) affected accuracy of identification. Results were comparable for identifying lesions that were endoscopically unresectable. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of 2123 colon lesions >10 mm, we found the NICE classification and morphologic features identify those with deep lesions with >96% specificity-even in non-expert hands and without magnification. ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT02328066.

Colon capsule endoscopy versus CT colonography in FIT-positive colorectal cancer screening subjects: a prospective randomised trial-the VICOCA study.

BACKGROUND: Colon capsule endoscopy (CCE) and CT colonography (CTC) are minimally invasive techniques for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Our objective is to compare CCE and CTC for the identification of patients with colorectal neoplasia among participants in a CRC screening programme with positive faecal immunochemical test (FIT). Primary outcome was to compare the performance of CCE and CTC in detecting patients with neoplastic lesions. METHODS: The VICOCA study is a prospective, single-centre, randomised trial conducted from March 2014 to May 2016; 662 individuals were invited and 349 were randomised to CCE or CTC before colonoscopy. Endoscopists were blinded to the results of CCE and CTC. RESULTS: Three hundred forty-nine individuals were included: 173 in the CCE group and 176 in the CTC group. Two hundred ninety individuals agreed to participate: 147 in the CCE group and 143 in the CTC group. In the intention-to-screen analysis, sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values for the identification of individuals with colorectal neoplasia were 98.1%, 76.6%, 93.7% and 92.0% in the CCE group and 64.9%, 95.7%, 96.8% and 57.7% in the CTC group. In terms of detecting significant neoplastic lesions, the sensitivity of CCE and CTC was 96.1% and 79.3%, respectively. Detection rate for advanced colorectal neoplasm was higher in the CCE group than in the CTC group (100% and 93.1%, respectively; RR = 1.07; p = 0.08). Both CCE and CTC identified all patients with cancer. CCE detected more patients with any lesion than CTC (98.6% and 81.0%, respectively; RR = 1.22; p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Although both techniques seem to be similar in detecting patients with advanced colorectal neoplasms, CCE is more sensitive for the detection of any neoplastic lesion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02081742 . Registered: September 16, 2013.

Transient elastography for screening of liver fibrosis: Cost-effectiveness analysis from six prospective cohorts in Europe and Asia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease pose an important challenge to current clinical healthcare pathways because of the large number of at-risk patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of transient elastography (TE) as a screening method to detect liver fibrosis in a primary care pathway. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using real-life individual patient data from 6 independent prospective cohorts (5 from Europe and 1 from Asia). A diagnostic algorithm with conditional inference trees was developed to explore the relationships between liver stiffness, socio-demographics, comorbidities, and hepatic fibrosis, the latter assessed by fibrosis scores (FIB-4, NFS) and liver biopsies in a subset of 352 patients. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy against standard of care alongside the numbers needed to screen to diagnose a patient with fibrosis stage ≥F2. RESULTS: The data set encompassed 6,295 participants (mean age 55 ±â€¯12 years, BMI 27 ±â€¯5 kg/m2, liver stiffness 5.6 ±â€¯5.0 kPa). A 9.1 kPa TE cut-off provided the best accuracy for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2) in general population settings, whereas a threshold of 9.5 kPa was optimal for populations at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease. TE with the proposed cut-offs outperformed fibrosis scores in terms of accuracy. Screening with TE was cost-effective with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 2,570 €/QALY (95% CI 2,456-2,683) for a population at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease (age ≥45 years) to 6,217 €/QALY (95% CI 5,832-6,601) in the general population. Overall, there was a 12% chance of TE screening being cost saving across countries and populations. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for liver fibrosis with TE in primary care is a cost-effective intervention for European and Asian populations and may even be cost saving. LAY SUMMARY: The lack of optimized public health screening strategies for the detection of liver fibrosis in adults without known liver disease presents a major healthcare challenge. Analyses from 6 independent international cohorts, with transient elastography measurements, show that a community-based risk-stratification strategy for alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases is cost-effective and potentially cost saving for our healthcare systems, as it leads to earlier identification of patients.

Development of predictive models for all individual questions of SRS-22R after adult spinal deformity surgery: a step toward individualized medicine.

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) instruments are essential in value-driven health care, but patients often have more specific, personal priorities when seeking surgical care. The Scoliosis Research Society-22R (SRS-22R), an HRQL instrument for spinal deformity, provides summary scores spanning several health domains, but these may be difficult for patients to utilize in planning their specific care goals. Our objective was to create preoperative predictive models for responses to individual SRS-22R questions at 1 and 2 years after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery to facilitate precision surgical care. METHODS: Two prospective observational cohorts were queried for ASD patients with SRS-22R data at baseline and 1 and 2 years after surgery. In total, 150 covariates were used in training machine learning models, including demographics, surgical data and perioperative complications. Validation was accomplished via an 80%/20% data split for training and testing, respectively. Goodness of fit was measured using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: In total, 561 patients met inclusion criteria. The AUROC ranged from 56.5 to 86.9%, reflecting successful fits for most questions. SRS-22R questions regarding pain, disability and social and labor function were the most accurately predicted. Models were less sensitive to questions regarding general satisfaction, depression/anxiety and appearance. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to explicitly model the prediction of individual answers to the SRS-22R questionnaire at 1 and 2 years after deformity surgery. The ability to predict individual question responses may prove useful in preoperative counseling in the age of individualized medicine. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.