The utility of a system dynamics approach for understanding cumulative health risk from exposure to environmental hazards.

The potential of system dynamics modeling to advance our understanding of cumulative risk in the service of optimal health is discussed. The focus is on exploring system dynamics modeling as a systems science methodology that can provide a framework for examining the complexity of real-world social and environmental exposures among populations-particularly those exposed to multiple disparate sources of risk. The discussion also examines how system dynamics modeling can engage a diverse body of key stakeholders throughout the modeling process, promoting the collective assessment of assumptions and systematic gathering of critical data. Though not a panacea, system dynamics modeling provides a promising methodology to complement traditional research methods in understanding cumulative health effects from exposure to multiple environmental and social stressors.

Integrated assessment of risk and sustainability in the context of regulatory decision making.

Risk assessment is a decision-making tool used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other governmental organizations to organize and analyze scientific information so as to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify threats to human health and/or ecologic resources. Sustainability evaluation is a process for organizing and analyzing scientific and technical information about nature-society interactions in order to help decision-makers determine whether taking or avoiding certain actions will make society more sustainable. Although development and application of these two methodologies have progressed along distinct and unconnected pathways, the National Research Council recently recommended that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency adopt the concept of "sustainability" as both a process and a goal, and that risk assessment be incorporated, when appropriate, as a key input into decision-making about sustainability. The following discussion briefly reviews these two analytic approaches and examines conceptual frameworks for integrating assessments of risk and sustainability as a component of regulatory decision-making.

Case study of municipal air pollution policies: Houston's Air Toxic Control Strategy under the White Administration, 2004-2009.

Local government has traditionally played only a minor role in regulating airborne toxic pollutants. However, from 2004 to 2009, the City of Houston implemented a novel, municipality-based air toxics reduction strategy to address what it considered unacceptable health risks and an insufficient regulatory response from state and federal agencies. The city's effort to exert local control over stationary sources of air toxics represents a unique opportunity to study the selection and performance of policy tools and to consider their ramifications for the design of future air pollution control strategies. The results of this case study demonstrate the potential for municipal government to use a combination of cooperative and confrontational policies to stimulate responses from private industry and state and federal regulators as part of a strategy to address local air quality problems.

Biomarker measurements of prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in umbilical cord blood from postpartum Hispanic women in Brownsville, Texas.

Biomarkers of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) were measured in both maternal and umbilical cord blood from 35 pregnant Hispanic women living in Brownsville, TX. Gas chromatography with an electron capture detector (GC/ECD) was used to analyze for 22 PCB analytes. Results indicated that both pregnant mothers and their fetuses were exposed to a variety of PCB at relatively low levels (≤ 0.2 ng/ml), and that concentrations in maternal and cord blood were similar. Concentrations of total PCB (sum or all PCB congeners) averaged more than 2.5 ng/ml, with highest values exceeding 3 ng/ml. Although health implications are uncertain, reports in the literature of PCB-related health effects raise concerns about possible future health consequences, especially obesity and diabetes, in this potentially vulnerable population.

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Cumulative risk assessment for combined health effects from chemical and nonchemical stressors.

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks.

Biomarker measurements of concurrent exposure to multiple environmental chemicals and chemical classes in children.

Concern is mounting that children from disadvantaged, low-income neighborhoods are likely to be both more exposed to chemical hazards and more susceptible to related adverse health effects. This article reports measurements of >75 individual biomarkers spanning 7 chemical/pollutant classes in blood and urine from more than 100 children living in a socioeconomically disadvantaged and ethnically diverse area of south Minneapolis, MN. Results indicate that a significant proportion of children in the study were at the high end of the exposure distribution compared to national reference ranges for a variety of environmental chemicals and/or their metabolites, including phthalates, organochlorine pesticides, organophosphate pesticides, metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, and volatile organic compounds. In addition, levels of cotinine in urine indicate that more than half the children were regularly exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, with the upper 10th percentile exposed to relatively high concentrations.

Assessing cumulative health risks from exposure to environmental mixtures - three fundamental questions.

Differential exposure to mixtures of environmental agents, including biological, chemical, physical, and psychosocial stressors, can contribute to increased vulnerability of human populations and ecologic systems. Cumulative risk assessment is a tool for organizing and analyzing information to evaluate the probability and seriousness of harmful effects caused by either simultaneous and/or sequential exposure to multiple environmental stressors. In this article we focus on elucidating key challenges that must be addressed to determine whether and to what degree differential exposure to environmental mixtures contributes to increased vulnerability of exposed populations. In particular, the emphasis is on examining three fundamental and interrelated questions that must be addressed as part of the process to assess cumulative risk: a) Which mixtures are most important from a public health perspective? and b) What is the nature (i.e., duration, frequency, timing) and magnitude (i.e., exposure concentration and dose) of relevant cumulative exposures for the population of interest? c) What is the mechanism (e.g., toxicokinetic or toxicodynamic) and consequence (e.g., additive, less than additive, more than additive) of the mixture's interactive effects on exposed populations? The focus is primarily on human health effects from chemical mixtures, and the goal is to reinforce the need for improved assessment of cumulative exposure and better understanding of the biological mechanisms that determine toxicologic interactions among mixture constituents.

If cumulative risk assessment is the answer, what is the question?

Cumulative risk refers to the combined threats from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors including biological, chemical, physical, and psychosocial entities. Cumulative risk assessment is a tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify the combined adverse effects on human health or ecologic resources from multiple environmental stressors. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has initiated a long-term effort to develop future guidelines for cumulative risk assessment, including publication in 2003 of a framework that describes important features of the process and discusses theoretical issues, technical matters, and key definitions. The framework divides the process of cumulative risk assessment into three interrelated phases: a) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; b) analysis; and c) interpretation and risk characterization. It also discusses the additional complexities introduced by attempts to analyze cumulative risks from multiple stressors and describes some of the theoretical approaches that can be used. The development of guidelines for cumulative risk assessment is an essential element in the transition of the U.S. EPA risk assessment methodology from a narrow focus on a single stressor, end point, source, pathway, and exposure route to a broader, more holistic approach involving analysis of combined effects of cumulative exposure to multiple stressors via all relevant sources, pathways, and routes.

Comparative assessment of air pollution-related health risks in Houston.

BACKGROUND: Airborne emissions from numerous point, area, and mobile sources, along with stagnant meteorologic conditions, contribute to frequent episodes of elevated air pollution in Houston, Texas. To address this problem, decision makers must set priorities among thousands of individual air pollutants as they formulate effective and efficient mitigation strategies. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to compare and rank relative health risks of 179 air pollutants in Houston using an evidence-based approach supplemented by the expert judgment of a panel of academic scientists. METHODS: Annual-average ambient concentrations by census tract were estimated from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National-scale Air Toxics Assessment and augmented with measured levels from the Houston monitoring network. Each substance was assigned to one of five risk categories (definite, probable, possible, unlikely, uncertain) based on how measured or monitored concentrations translated into comparative risk estimates. We used established unit risk estimates for carcinogens and/or chronic reference values for noncarcinogens to set thresholds for each category. Assignment to an initial risk category was adjusted, as necessary, based on expert judgment about the quality and quantity of information available. RESULTS: Of the 179 substances examined, 12 (6.7%) were deemed definite risks, 9 (5.0%) probable risks, 24 (13.4%) possible risks, 16 (8.9%) unlikely risks, and 118 (65.9%) uncertain risks. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-based priority setting is an important step in the development of cost-effective solutions to Houston's air pollution problem.

Serum leptin concentration, adiposity, and body fat distribution in Mexican-Americans.

BACKGROUND: Leptin is strongly associated with adiposity and few studies have investigated its role in Mexican-Americans. The aims of this study were to examine the association of serum leptin concentration with adiposity and body fat distribution in Mexican-Americans and to develop a predictive model of serum leptin concentration for this ethnic group. METHODS: Three hundred fifty-two college students (242 women, 110 men; age 18-30 years) were evaluated in this cross-sectional study. Body fat content was assessed using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Correlation between serum leptin levels and several markers of adiposity and body fat distribution were examined in both men and women. Multiple regression analysis was performed to create the predictive model. RESULTS: Women had higher serum leptin concentrations than men for the same levels of adiposity. After controlling for gender and body fat, only fat mass (FM) expressed in kg, was significantly correlated with serum leptin concentration in men (partial rho = 0.811, p <0.001), whereas body mass index (BMI), hip circumference (HC), and FM expressed in kg, were significantly correlated with serum leptin concentration in women (partial rho = 0.214, p <0.001; partial rho = 0.201, p <0.01; and partial rho = 0.818, p <0.001, respectively). Percent body fat (PBF) was the only significant predictor of serum leptin concentration among men, explaining 42% of the variance in serum leptin concentration. In addition to PBF, waist circumference (WC) and HC were significant predictors of serum leptin concentration among women explaining 65% of the variance in serum leptin concentration. CONCLUSIONS: Serum leptin concentration is a function of adiposity as determined by PBF in both Mexican-American men and women. HC and WC are associated with serum leptin concentration in Mexican-American women but not in men. BMI alone should not be used in evaluating the association of serum leptin concentration with body fatness in Mexican-Americans.

Estimating volatile organic compound concentrations in selected microenvironments using time-activity and personal exposure data.

Repeated measures of personal exposure to 14 volatile organic compounds (VOC) were obtained over 3 seasons for 70 healthy, nonsmoking adults living in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Matched data were also available for participants' time-activity patterns, and measured VOC concentrations outdoors in the community and indoors in residences. A novel modeling approach employing hierarchical Bayesian techniques was used to estimate VOC concentrations (posterior mode) and variability (credible intervals) in five microenvironments: (1) indoors at home; (2) indoors at work/school; (3) indoors in other locations; (4) outdoors in any location; and (5) in transit. Estimated concentrations tended to be highest in "other" indoor microenvironments (e.g., grocery stores, restaurants, shopping malls), intermediate in the indoor work/school and residential microenvironments, and lowest in the outside and in-transit microenvironments. Model estimates for all 14 VOC were reasonable approximations of measured median concentrations in the indoor residential microenvironment. The largest predicted contributor to cumulative (2-day) personal exposure for all 14 VOC was the indoor residential environment. Model-based results suggest that indoors-at-work/school and indoors-at-other-location microenvironments were the second or third largest contributors for all VOC, while the outside-in-any-location and in-transit microenvironments appeared to contribute negligibly to cumulative personal exposure. Results from a mixed-effects model indicate that being in or near a garage increased personal exposure to o-xylene, m/p-xylene, benzene, ethylbenzene, and toluene, and leaving windows and doors at home open for 6 h or more decreased personal exposure to 13 of 14 VOC, all except trichloroethylene.

Relationships between personal, indoor, and outdoor exposures to trace elements in PM(2.5).

Twenty-four hour average fine particle concentrations of 23 trace elements (TEs) were measured concurrently in (a) ambient air in three urban neighborhoods (Battle Creek-BCK; East St. Paul-ESP; and Phillips-PHI), (b) air inside residences of participants, and (c) personal air near the breathing zone of healthy, non-smoking adults. The outdoor (O), indoor (I), and personal (P) samples were collected in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area over three seasons (Spring, Summer, Fall) using either the federal reference (O) or inertial impactor (I,P) inlets to collect PM(2.5). In addition to descriptive statistics, a hierarchical, mixed-effects statistical model was used to estimate the mutually adjusted effects of monitor location, community, and season on mean differences between monitoring locations while accounting for within-subject and within-monitoring period correlation. The relationships among P, I, and O concentrations varied across TEs. The O concentrations were usually higher than P or I for elements like Ca and Al that originate mainly from entrained crustal material, while P concentrations were often highest for other elements with non-crustal sources. Unadjusted mixed model results demonstrated that O monitors more frequently underestimated than overestimated P TE exposures for elements associated with non-crustal sources. This finding was true even though the O TE measurements were taken in the same neighborhoods as the P and I measurements. Further adjustment for community or season effects in the mixed models reduced the number of significant O-P and O-I differences compared to unadjusted models, but still indicated a tendency for underestimation of personal and indoor TE exposures by central site monitors, particularly in the PHI community. These results indicate that community and season are important covariates for developing long term TE exposure estimates, and that personal exposure to trace elements in PM(2.5) is likely to be underestimated by outdoor central site monitors.

Using biologic markers in blood to assess exposure to multiple environmental chemicals for inner-city children 3-6 years of age.

We assessed concurrent exposure to a mixture of > 50 environmental chemicals by measuring the chemicals or their metabolites in the blood of 43 ethnically diverse children (3-6 years of age) from a socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhood in Minneapolis. Over a 2-year period, additional samples were collected every 6-12 months from as many children as possible. We analyzed blood samples for 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), 2 heavy metals (lead and mercury, 11 organochlorine (OC) pesticides or related compounds, and 30 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. The evidence suggests that numerous VOCs originated from common sources, as did many PCBs. Longitudinal measurements indicate that between-child variance was greater than within-child variance for two VOCs (benzene, toluene), for both heavy metals (Pb, Hg), for all detectable OC pesticides, and for 15 of the measured PCB congeners (74, 99, 101, 118, 138-158, 146, 153, 156, 170, 178, 180, 187, 189, 194, 195). Despite the relatively small sample size, highest measured blood levels of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, styrene, m-/p-xylene, Pb, Hg, heptachlor epoxide, oxychlordane, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethene (p,p -DDE), trans-nonachlor, and PCB congeners 74, 99, 105, 118, 138, 146, 153, 156, 170, and 180 were comparable with or higher than 95th percentile measurements of older children and adults from national surveys. Results demonstrate that cumulative exposures to multiple environmental carcinogens and neurotoxins can be comparatively high for children from a poor inner-city neighborhood.

Children's exposure to volatile organic compounds as determined by longitudinal measurements in blood.

Blood concentrations of 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured up to four times over 2 years in a probability sample of more than 150 children from two poor, minority neighborhoods in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Blood levels of benzene, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, and m-/p-xylene were comparable with those measured in selected adults from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), whereas concentrations of ethylbenzene, tetrachloroethylene, toluene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and o-xylene were two or more times lower in the children. Blood levels of styrene were more than twice as high, and for about 10% of the children 1,4-dichlorobenzene levels were greater than or equal to 10 times higher compared with NHANES III subjects. We observed strong statistical associations between numerous pairwise combinations of individual VOCs in blood (e.g., benzene and m-/p-xylene, m-/p-xylene and o-xylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane and m-/p-xylene, and 1,1,1-trichloroethane and trichloroethene). Between-child variability was higher than within-child variability for 1,4-dichlorobenzene and tetrachloroethylene. Between- and within-child variability were approximately the same for ethylbenzene and 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and between-child was lower than within-child variability for the other seven compounds. Two-day, integrated personal air measurements explained almost 79% of the variance in blood levels for 1,4-dichlorobenzene and approximately 20% for tetrachloroethylene, toluene, m-/p-xylene, and o-xylene. Personal air measurements explained much less of the variance (between 0.5 and 8%) for trichloroethene, styrene, benzene, and ethylbenzene. We observed no significant statistical associations between total urinary cotinine (a biomarker for exposure to environmental tobacco smoke) and blood VOC concentrations. For siblings living in the same household, we found strong statistical associations between measured blood VOC concentrations.

Comparison of recruitment, retention, and compliance results for three children's exposure monitoring studies.

The School Health Initiative: Environment, Learning, Disease (SHIELD) study, the Minnesota Children's Pesticide Exposure Study (MNCPES), and the National Cooperative Inner-City Asthma Study (NCICAS) are three of the most intensive and invasive exposure-monitoring projects ever undertaken in children. An intrinsic facet of each study was the need to recruit children and their families, retain them for the duration of the project, and ensure that they completed monitoring protocols successfully. All of the studies used fiscal incentives to encourage participation, retention, and compliance. Recruitment rates varied from 40% in MNCPES, to 57% in SHIELD, to 64% in NCICAS, while retention rates varied from 85% in SHIELD, to 94% in MNCPES, to 95% in NCICAS. Rates of compliance with exposure sampling procedures were typically >80% for each study. For example, > or =85% of the enrolled children provided all requested urine samples (1 for NCICAS, 2 for SHIELD, 3 for MNCPES), and 82% of the children in SHIELD provided two out of two blood samples (optional in MNCPES and NCICAS). However, compliance rates were substantially lower (34% SHIELD, 40% NCICAS, not applicable to MNCPES) for the more complex and time-consuming protocol used to collect peak flow data. Overall, results demonstrate that it is practical and affordable to conduct demanding exposure-monitoring studies in children, including children from poor minority communities.

A border versus non-border comparison of food environment, poverty, and ethnic composition in Texas urban settings.

PURPOSE: The goal was to examine the relationship between the food environment and selected socioeconomic variables and ethnic/racial makeup in the eight largest urban settings in Texas so as to gain a better understanding of the relationships among Hispanic composition, poverty, and urban foodscapes, comparing border to non-border urban environments. METHODS: Census-tract level data on (a) socioeconomic factors, like percentage below the poverty line and number of households on foodstamps, and (b) ethnic variables, like percent of Mexican origin and percent foreign born, were obtained from the U.S. Census. Data at the census-tract level on the total number of healthy (e.g., supermarkets) and less-healthy (e.g., fast food outlets) food retailers were acquired from the CDC's modified retail food environment index (mRFEI). Variation among urban settings in terms of the relationship between mRFEI scores and socioeconomic and ethnic context was tested using a mixed-effect model, and linear regression was used to identify significant factors for each urban location. A jackknife variance estimate was used to account for clustering and autocorrelation of adjacent census tracts. RESULTS: Average census-tract mRFEI scores exhibited comparatively small variation across Texas urban settings, while socioeconomic and ethnic factors varied significantly. The only covariates significantly associated with mRFEI score were percent foreign born and percent Mexican origin. Compared to the highest-population county (Harris, which incorporates most of Houston), the only counties that had significantly different mRFEI scores were Bexar, which is analogous to San Antonio (2.12 lower), El Paso (2.79 higher), and Neuces, which encompasses Corpus Christi (2.90 less). Significant interaction effects between mRFEI and percent foreign born (El Paso, Tarrant - Fort Worth, Travis - Austin), percent Mexican origin (Hidalgo - McAllen, El Paso, Tarrant, Travis), and percent living below the poverty line (El Paso) were observed for some urban settings. Percent foreign born and percent Mexican origin tended to be positively associated with mRFEI in some locations (Hidalgo, El Paso) and negatively associated in others (Tarrant, Travis). DISCUSSION: Findings are consistent with other studies that suggest the effects of Hispanic concentration on the foodscape may be positive (beneficially healthy) in border urban settings and negative in non-border. The evidence implies that the effects of Hispanic ethnic composition on the food environment are location-dependent, reflecting the unique attributes (e.g., culture, infrastructure, social networks) of specific urban settings.

Houston's Novel Strategy to Control Hazardous Air Pollutants: A Case Study in Policy Innovation and Political Stalemate.

Although ambient concentrations have declined steadily over the past 30 years, Houston has recorded some of the highest levels of hazardous air pollutants in the United States. Nevertheless, federal and state regulatory efforts historically have emphasized compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone, treating "air toxics" in Houston as a residual problem to be solved through application of technology-based standards. Between 2004 and 2009, Mayor Bill White and his administration challenged the well-established hierarchy of air quality management spelled out in the Clean Air Act, whereby federal and state authorities are assigned primacy over local municipalities for the purpose of designing and implementing air pollution control strategies. The White Administration believed that existing regulations were not sufficient to protect the health of Houstonians and took a diversity of both collaborative and combative policy actions to mitigate air toxic emissions from stationary sources. Opposition was substantial from a local coalition of entrenched interests satisfied with the status quo, which hindered the city's attempts to take unilateral policy actions. In the short term, the White Administration successfully raised the profile of the air toxics issue, pushed federal and state regulators to pay more attention, and induced a few polluting facilities to reduce emissions. But since White left office in 2010, air quality management in Houston has returned to the way it was before, and today there is scant evidence that his policies have had any lasting impact.

Outdoor, indoor, and personal exposure to VOCs in children.

We measured volatile organic compound (VOC) exposures in multiple locations for a diverse population of children who attended two inner-city schools in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Fifteen common VOCs were measured at four locations: outdoors (O), indoors at school (S), indoors at home (H), and in personal samples (P). Concentrations of most VOCs followed the general pattern O approximately equal to S < P less than or equal to H across the measured microenvironments. The S and O environments had the smallest and H the largest influence on personal exposure to most compounds. A time-weighted model of P exposure using all measured microenvironments and time-activity data provided little additional explanatory power beyond that provided by using the H measurement alone. Although H and P concentrations of most VOCs measured in this study were similar to or lower than levels measured in recent personal monitoring studies of adults and children in the United States, p-dichlorobenzene was the notable exception to this pattern, with upper-bound exposures more than 100 times greater than those found in other studies of children. Median and upper-bound H and P exposures were well above health benchmarks for several compounds, so outdoor measurements likely underestimate long-term health risks from children's exposure to these compounds.

Recruitment, retention, and compliance results from a probability study of children's environmental health in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

The School Health Initiative: Environment, Learning, and Disease (SHIELD) study used a probability sample of children (second through fifth grades) from two low-income and racially mixed neighborhoods of Minneapolis, Minnesota, to assess childhood environmental health. Children were eligible to participate in SHIELD regardless of whether they or their families spoke a foreign language, their household had a telephone, or they were enrolled in a special education program. The overall enrollment rate in year 1 was 57%, with a substantial disparity between children from English-speaking (42%) versus non-English-speaking (71%) families. At the end of year 1, 85% were retained in the study. A relatively high percentage of children provided the two requested blood (82%) and urine (86%) samples in year 1, and 90% provided a valid spirometry sample. Eighty-two percent provided both requested volatile organic chemical badge samples, and both time-activity logs were obtained from 66%. However, only 32% provided both peak flow measurements. All percentages increased for those participating in the second year of the study. Results indicate that a school-based research design makes it feasible and practical to conduct probability-based assessments of children's environmental health in economically disadvantaged and ethnically diverse neighborhoods. There is an ongoing need, however, to improve understanding of the cultural, economic, psychologic, and social determinants of study participation among this population.