A simple index predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates used to evaluate and improve the quality of hospital care are adjusted for comorbidity and disease severity. Comorbidity, measured by International Classification of Diseases codes, do not reflect the severity of the medical condition, that requires clinical assessments not available in electronic databases, and/or laboratory data with clinically relevant ranges to permit extrapolation from one setting to the next. AIM: To propose a simple index predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized patients. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study with internal and external validation. METHODS: The study populations were all acutely admitted patients in 2015-16, and in January 2019-November 2019 to internal medicine, cardiology and intensive care departments at the Laniado Hospital in Israel, and in 2002-19, at St. James Hospital, Ireland. Predictor variables were age and admission laboratory tests. The outcome variable was in-hospital mortality. Using logistic regression of the data in the 2015-16 Israeli cohort, we derived an index that included age groups and significant laboratory data. RESULTS: In the Israeli 2015-16 cohort, the index predicted mortality rates from 0.2% to 32.0% with a c-statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) of 0.86. In the Israeli 2019 validation cohort, the index predicted mortality rates from 0.3% to 38.9% with a c-statistic of 0.87. An abbreviated index performed similarly in the Irish 2002-19 cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital mortality can be predicted by age and selected admission laboratory data without acquiring information from the patient's medical records. This permits an inexpensive comparison of performance of hospital departments.

Reasons patients present to the emergency department might change during epidemics and be a valuable component of a disease surveillance system.

We hypothesize that the frequency of reasons patients present to the emergency department will change during epidemics and might be a valuable component of a disease surveillance system. We found support for this hypothesis over a two-year period with high frequency days of fever clustering during two periods of increased hospital influenza activity, but not during any other period during the two-years. This methodology appears to be superior to the previous use of triage nurses defining patients with symptom complexes. Such a system could result in online monitoring, be independent of the medical personnel (use of admission secretary), and might be able to identify various epidemics including increased hospital disease activity due to bio-terror attacks, influenza, and food poisoning. This would have important implications for limiting the spread of disease and for the acute planning of distribution of medical resources. Studies are warranted in various settings to determine whether or not changes in the daily frequencies of reasons patients present to the ED will allow identification of epidemics.

The use of systemic antibiotics in seven community hospitals in Northern Israel.

This study evaluated and compared the usage and costs of antibiotics in seven hospitals in the North of Israel and was the first of its kind. We also attempted to determine whether the presence of an Infectious Diseases Unit or Consultant affects antibiotic usage and costs.

[Antibodies against double-stranded and single-stranded DNA in the aged].

Sera from 183 healthy, elderly subjects and 92 young, control subjects were tested by the Elisa method for antibodies against double-stranded (ds) and single-stranded (ss) DNA, and sera from the elderly were tested for antinuclear antibodies as well. Significantly higher levels of anti-ss-DNA were found in the elderly, but levels of anti-ds-DNA did not differ significantly; no sera positive for anti-ds-DNA were found. levels of antibodies to DNA were similar in men and women. In those 85 and over, mean levels of anti-ds-DNA were lower than in those 65-84 (63 vs. 44, p less than 0.05). 13 of those over 65 (7.1%) tested positive for antinuclear factor, 2 of whom had positive titers of anti-ss-DNA. The results of this study support the hypothesis that elevated levels of anti-ss-DNA are age-related and not disease-related.

[Torecan-induced neuroleptic malignant syndrome].

Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is an uncommon, life-threatening complication of treatment with neuroleptic drugs. Its main features are hyperthermia, extrapyramidal signs, and autonomic instability with fluctuating consciousness. It is believed that NMS is related to dopamine receptor blockade in the brain. We describe a case in a 52-year-old diabetic woman who developed NMS after taking Torecan (thiethylperazine), a phenothiazine drug, for 3 months to relieve dizziness. It is important to recognize this syndrome early and to treat immediately.

[Pulsed high-dose dexamethasone in resistant immune thrombocytopenic purpura].

Most patients with chronic idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) show a good initial response to treatment with corticosteroids. However the disease relapses in more than 90% when steroid dosage is reduced. Recently 100% success was reported for a new therapeutic protocol in 12 patients (ranging in age from 13-60, half of them women) with chronic ITP refractory to corticosteroids or to splenectomy. They were given pulsed therapy with oral dexamethasone, 40 mg/day on 4 consecutive days each month, for 6 months. This treatment protocol was used in an attempt to avoid splenectomy. 5 patients (42%) had a complete response but 7 did not. The median follow-up in those who responded was 7 months (range 6-8). Of the 7 who did not respond, 5 had not completed treatment: 3 because of urgent splenectomy and 2 because of lack of response after 3 courses of therapy accompanied by side-effects. Most patients suffered typical corticosteroid side-effects, principally restlessness, insomnia, and withdrawal effects. These were milder and better tolerated in those treated with Dexacort solution (20 mg ampules) rather than dexamethasone tablets. Despite complete response in only 5 of the 12 patients (42%), we feel that pulsed high-dose dexamethasone is effective and should be tried in TTP refractory to conventional corticosteroid therapy, before resorting to splenectomy.

[Percutaneous feeding gastrostomy].

In the past 3 years 71 procedures for insertion of a percutaneous gastrostomy for enteral feeding were performed under X-ray control. The indication for gastrostomy was inability or refusal of the patient to swallow food, in the absence of mechanical obstruction of the gastrointestinal tract. The age range was 66-93 years (mean 82). Most patients had suffered strokes and some had dementia or Parkinson's disease. The procedure was successful in 69/71 patients (97%). 9 (12.6%) died within 30 days of causes related to their underlying condition, rather than to the procedure; 1 developed peritonitis and 6 (8.4%) developed minor infections at the site of entry of the gastrostomy tube. This is the first account of this technique to appear in the Hebrew medical literature. In our opinion the technique should be adopted as the preferred method for forming a gastrostomy, as it is quicker, safer and cheaper than the operative method, and even easier to perform than endoscopic percutaneous gastrostomy.

Increased complaints of fever in the emergency room can identify influenza epidemics.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, it may be easier to use the reasons why patients come to the emergency room (ER) instead of sentinel practices to identify influenza epidemics. METHODS: We studied the reasons why adult patients present to the ER in order to attempt to predict increased hospital activity as a result of influenza. The daily frequency of presenting symptoms during the 30 days of maximal influenza activity was compared to the other days of the study period (335 days). RESULTS: During the influenza period, more patients presented with fever, syncope or near syncope, cough, asthma attack, and paralysis than on the days outside of this period. On 50% of the days, eight or more patients presented with fever, an 8.36 (95% CI=4.6-15.19) higher frequency than during the rest of the year. During the subsequent year, days with excess presentations by patients with a principal complaint of fever predicted increased hospital activity due to influenza with no false-positive periods. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that an increase in the number of patients presenting to the ER complaining of fever can identify increased hospital influenza activity.

Risk factors for severity and relapse of pseudomembranous colitis in an elderly population.

OBJECTIVE: Pseudomembranous colitis (PMC) is well recognized as an important cause of diarrhoea in patients receiving antibiotics, with significant consequences of morbidity and mortality. Mortality among elderly patients is high, and even with successful treatment, a significant number of patients relapse. To evaluate the outcome of elderly patients with PMC, and to try to identify risk factors that might influence mortality or relapse. METHOD: We studied 72 consecutive hospitalized patients with endoscopically proven PMC. The medical records of all patients with their clinical history and laboratory data were reviewed in detail. These data included: pre-hospitalization residence and physical status, background medical history, presenting symptoms, antibiotic history, haematological and biochemical parameters, treatment, duration of hospitalization, complications, mortality within 30 days of hospitalization and relapse. RESULTS: Of the 72 patients (M/F=34/38, mean age=77 years), 47% were nursing home residents. Prior to hospitalization, 91.6% of patients had received antibiotic treatment (cephalosporins - 64%, penicillins - 42% and quinolones - 28%), 26% of patients received antacid therapy and 36% had been fed with a nasogastric tube (NGT). Thirty-seven (51%) patients recovered without complications, 21 (29%) patients died within 30 days of hospitalization and 14 (19%) patients were re-hospitalized because of relapse of PMC. Multivariate analysis revealed that white blood cell count above 20 x 10(3)/mm3 (P=0.009), serum albumin level of less than 2.5 g/dl (P=0.02), and pre-hospitalization NGT feeding (P=0.01) were associated with high mortality. Treatment with acid-reducing drugs (P=0.01) and living at a nursing home (P=0.06) were associated with high relapse rates. CONCLUSION: Pseudomembranous colitis is an important complication of antibiotic therapy and is associated with high mortality and recurrence rate, especially in old and debilitated persons. Pre-admission NGT feeding, severe leucocytosis and hypoalbuminaemia on admission are associated with increased mortality. Pre-hospitalization acid reducing treatment and nursing home residency are associated with increased risk of recurrence.