RESUMO
To estimate the average lifespan of container vessels, this study specified their most suitable lifespan distribution function using a comprehensive dataset comprising 2188 container vessels manufactured and retired between 1941 and 2018. The lifecycle CO2 emissions of vessels were estimated under different scenarios with varied average lifespans and average carbon intensity improvements per annum through stock-flow model analysis. The results indicated that a normal distribution best represented the lifespan distribution of container vessels, with an estimated average lifespan of approximately 24 years. Furthermore, scenario analyses revealed that shortening the lifespans of container vessels can effectively reduce lifecycle CO2 emissions. This study demonstrates the synergistic contribution of accelerating the replacement cycle of container vessels and implementing stronger energy efficiency regulations for emissions reduction, highlighting the importance of policies regulating vessel lifespans.