A conjunctive management framework for the optimal design of pumping and injection strategies to mitigate seawater intrusion.

Coastal aquifer management (CAM) considering conjunctive optimization of pumping and injection system for seawater intrusion (SI) mitigation poses significant decision-making challenges. CAM needs to pose multiple objectives and massive decision variables to explore tradeoff strategies between the conflicting resources, economic, and environmental requirements. Here, we investigate a joint artificial injection scheme for ameliorating SI by establishing an evolutionary multi-objective decision-making framework that combines simulation-optimization (S-O) modelling with a cost-benefit analysis, and demonstrate the framework on a large-scale CAM case in Baldwin County, Alabama. First, a SI numerical model, using SEAWAT, was configured to predict the vulnerable region as an SI encroachment area with the scenarios of minimum and maximum pumping capacity. As a result, a smaller number of candidate sites were selected in the SI encroachment area for implementing groundwater injection to avoid the computationally infeasible SI optimization with an inordinate number of injection related decision variables. Second, the effective S-O methodology of niched Pareto tabu search combined with a genetic algorithm (NPTSGA), which considers the moving-well option, was applied to discover optimal pumping/injection (P/I) strategies (including P/I rates and injection well locations) between three conflicting management objectives under complicated SI constraints. Third, for practical operation of the P/I schemes, a cost-benefit analysis provides judgment criteria to allow decision-makers to implement more sustainable P/I strategies to capture the different realistic preferences. The implementation of three extreme optimization solutions for the case study indicates that, compared to the initial unoptimized scheme, a maximum increase of a factor of 3 in groundwater extraction rates, a maximum reduction of 17% in extent of SI, and a maximum 82.3 million US dollars in comprehensive benefits are specifically achieved by conjunctive P/I optimization. The robustness in the decision alternatives attributed to the uncertainty in physical parameters of hydraulic conductivity was discovered through global sensitivity analysis. The proposed framework provides a decision support system for multi-objective CAM with combined pumping control and engineering measures for SI mitigation.

Process-based reactive transport model to quantify arsenic mobility during aquifer storage and recovery of potable water.

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is an aquifer recharge technique in which water is injected in an aquifer during periods of surplus and withdrawn from the same well during periods of deficit. It is a critical component of the long-term water supply plan in various regions, including Florida, USA. Here, the viability of ASR as a safe and cost-effective water resource is currently being tested at a number of sites due to elevated arsenic concentrations detected during groundwater recovery. In this study, we developed a process-based reactive transport model of the coupled physical and geochemical mechanisms controlling the fate of arsenic during ASR. We analyzed multicycle hydrochemical data from a well-documented affected southwest Floridan site and evaluated a conceptual/numerical model in which (i) arsenic is initially released during pyrite oxidation triggered by the injection of oxygenated water (ii) then largely complexes to neo-formed hydrous ferric oxides before (iii) being remobilized during recovery as a result of both dissolution of hydrous ferric oxides and displacement from sorption sites by competing anions.

Including Vertical Fault Structures in Layered Groundwater Flow Models.

Accurate representation of groundwater flow and solute transport requires a sound representation of the underlying geometry of aquifers. Faults can have a significant influence on the structure and connectivity of aquifers, which may allow permeable units to connect, and aquifers to seal when juxtaposed against lower permeability units. Robust representation of groundwater flow around faults remains challenging despite the significance of faults for flow and transport. We present a methodology for the inclusion of faults utilizing the unstructured grid features of MODFLOW-USG and MODFLOW 6. The method focuses on the representation of fault geometries using non-neighbor connections between juxtaposed layers. We present an illustration of the method for a synthetic fluvial aquifer. The combined impact of the heterogeneous aquifer and fault offset is clearly visible where channel features at different depths in the aquifer were connected at the fault. These results highlight the importance of representing fault features in groundwater flow models.

Normalized difference vegetation index as the dominant predicting factor of groundwater recharge in phreatic aquifers: case studies across Iran.

The estimation of long-term groundwater recharge rate ([Formula: see text]) is a pre-requisite for efficient management of groundwater resources, especially for arid and semi-arid regions. Precise estimation of [Formula: see text] is probably the most difficult factor of all measurements in the evaluation of GW resources, particularly in semi-arid regions in which the recharge rate is typically small and/or regions with scarce hydrogeological data. The main objective of this study is to find and assess the predicting factors of [Formula: see text] at an aquifer scale. For this purpose, 325 Iran's phreatic aquifers (61% of Iran's aquifers) were selected based on the data availability and the effect of eight predicting factors were assessed on [Formula: see text] estimation. The predicting factors considered include Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), mean annual temperature ([Formula: see text]), the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration ([Formula: see text]), drainage density ([Formula: see text]), mean annual specific discharge ([Formula: see text]), Mean Slope ([Formula: see text]), Soil Moisture ([Formula: see text]), and population density ([Formula: see text]). The local and global Moran's I index, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and two-step cluster analysis served to support the spatial analysis of the results. The eight predicting factors considered are positively correlated to [Formula: see text] and the NDVI has the greatest influence followed by the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. In the regression model, NDVI solely explained 71% of the variation in [Formula: see text], while other drivers have only a minor modification (3.6%). The results of this study provide new insight into the complex interrelationship between [Formula: see text] and vegetation density indicated by the NDVI. The findings of this study can help in better estimation of [Formula: see text] especially for the phreatic aquifers that the hydrogeological ground-data requisite for establishing models are scarce.

Interaction of lake-groundwater levels using cross-correlation analysis: A case study of Lake Urmia Basin, Iran.

Lake Urmia (LU) is the second largest hypersaline lake in the world. Lake Urmia's water level has dropped drastically from 1277.85 m to 1270.08 m a.s.l (equal to 7.77 m) during the last 20 years, equivalent to a loss of 70% of the lake area. The likelihood of lake-groundwater connection on the basin-scale is uncertain and understudied because of lack of basic data and precise information required for physically-based modeling. In this study, cross-correlation analysis is applied on a various time-frames of water level of the lake and groundwater levels (2001-2018) recorded in 797 observation wells across 17 adjacent aquifers. This provides insightful information on the lake-groundwater interaction. The cross-correlation coefficient between the monthly water level of lake and observations wells (rGW-L) and the difference of these two variables (Hf) was calculated for different time-frames. The values of rGW-L (ranged -0.69 to 0.97) and Hf (ranged -53 m to 293 m) indicated the significant role of time-frames of observed dataset on dynamic behavior of lake-groundwater interaction, and exchange fluxes in the study setting. Results suggested two opposing behaviors in lake-groundwater interaction of the study system mainly arise from anthropogenic activity (overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation) and aquifer type (unconfined/pressurized): three out of 17 adjacent aquifers are feeding by the LU and act as "gaining aquifers" (located in northern half of LU) and others discharging into the LU and act as "losing aquifers". This study aimed to provide easy-to-obtain insights into LGWI in the complex setting of LU Basin. It can be considered a preliminary step towards a deeper understanding of the interaction through physically-based analysis and modeling.

Towards Quantifying the Likelihood of Water Resource Impacts from Unconventional Gas Development.

Gas production from unconventional reservoirs has led to widespread environmental concerns. Despite several excellent reviews of various potential impacts to water resources from unconventional gas production, no study has systematically and quantitatively assessed the potential for these impacts to occur. We use empirical evidence and numerical and analytical models to quantify the likelihood of surface water and groundwater contamination, and shallow aquifer depletion from unconventional gas developments. These likelihoods are not intended to be exact. They provide a starting point for comparing the probabilities of adverse impacts between types of water resources and pathways. This analysis provides much needed insight into what are "probable" rather than simply "possible" impacts. The results suggest that the most likely water resource impacts are surface water and groundwater contamination from spills at the well pad, which can be as high as 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 for each gas well, respectively. For wells that are hydraulically fractured, the likelihood of contamination due to inter-aquifer leakage is 1 in 106 or lower (dependent on the separation distance between the production formation and the aquifer). For gas-bearing formations that were initially over-pressurized, the potential for contamination from inter-aquifer leakage after production ceases could be as high as 1 in 400 where the separation between gas formation and shallow aquifer is 500 m, but will be much lower for greater separation distances (more characteristic of shale gas).

Effects of Intraborehole Flow on Purging and Sampling Long-Screened or Open Wells.

Hydraulic head differences across the screened or open interval of a well significantly influence the sampled water mixture. Sample bias can occur due to an insufficient pumping rate and/or due to native groundwater displacement by intraborehole flow (IBF). Proper understanding of the sampled water mixture is crucial for accurate interpretation of environmental tracers and groundwater chemistry data, and hence groundwater characterization. This paper uses numerical modeling to quantify sample bias caused by IBF in an un-pumped high-yield well, and the influence of pumping rate and heterogeneity on the volume of pumpage required to purge an IBF plume. The results show that (1) the pumping rate must be at least an order of magnitude greater than the IBF rate to achieve permeability-weighted yield, (2) purge volume was 2.2 to 20.6 times larger than the IBF plume volume, with the ratio depending on plume location relative to hydraulic conductivity and head distributions, and (3) after an example 1000-day un-pumped period, purging required removal of at least three orders of magnitude more water than the common practice of three to five well volumes. These results highlight the importance of knowing the borehole flow regime to identify IBF inflow and outflow zones, estimate IBF rates, and to develop a strategic sampling approach.

Assessment of sustainable groundwater resources management using integrated environmental index: Case studies across Iran.

Assessing environmentally sustainable GW management (ESGM) needs a deep knowledge of the present and the projected status of GW (GW) quantity and quality. Translations of these data into policy relevant information are usually done through quantitative indices. Despite the availability of a dozen GW sustainability indicators, defining an integrated index based on internationally accepted scientific standards indicators is required. To fill this gap, an in-depth review on the developed indicators/index for evaluation of GW sustainable management (GWSM) from an environmental viewpoint at aquifer scales is provided in this study. Thirteen environmentally related quantitative indicators are adopted for assessment of GWSM, especially in arid regions, depending upon data availability, and relevance of indicators. An integrated ESGM index (ESGMI) is developed based on weighted aggregation of thirteen adopted indicators through multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. ESGMI value ranged between 0 and 100, zero value denotes to the worst state or unsustainable GW management (GWM) and 100 indicates the ideal state or GWM is sustainable. Thirty important aquifers across Iran are chosen to implement the ESGMI at the national scale of a country known to be the fifth largest global GW user. ESGMI values for thirty of Iran's aquifers are obtained in the range 15.40 to 68.50 (on average, 49.96). This reveals the unsustainable status of GWM in this country. The results of this study demonstrate that the ESGMI is a promising tool to determine the current state of GW quantity and quality, reveals the effect of policy actions and plans, and contributes to the development and operation of effective sustainable management policies for GW resources. Due to uncertainties and spatio-temporal variabilities of key controlling variables in GW management, sustainability evaluation should be understood as a dynamic and iterative process, requiring persistent monitoring, analysis, prioritization, and modification.

The Effect of Undetected Barriers on Groundwater Drawdown and Recovery.

In large-scale pumping projects, such as mine dewatering, predictions are often made about the rate of groundwater level recovery after pumping has ceased. However, these predictions may be impacted by geological uncertainty-including the presence of undetected impermeable barriers. During pumping, an impermeable barrier may be undetected if it is located beyond the maximum extent of the cone of depression; yet it may still control drawdown during the recovery phase. This has implications for regional-scale modeling and monitoring of groundwater level recovery. In this article, non-dimensional solutions are developed to show the conditions under which a barrier may be undetected during pumping but still significantly impact groundwater level recovery. The magnitude of the impact from an undetected barrier will increase as the ratio of pumping rate to aquifer transmissivity increases. The results are exemplified for a hypothetical aquifer with an unknown barrier 3 km from a pumping well. The difference in drawdown between a model with and without a barrier may be <1 m in the 10 years while pumping is occurring, but up to 50 m after pumping has ceased.

Non-pumping reactive wells filled with mixing nano and micro zero-valent iron for nitrate removal from groundwater: Vertical, horizontal, and slanted wells.

Non-pumping reactive wells (NPRWs) filled by zero-valent iron (ZVI) can be utilized for the remediation of groundwater contamination of deep aquifers. The efficiency of NPRWs mainly depends on the hydraulic contact time (HCT) of the pollutant with the reactive materials, the extent of the well capture zone (Wcz), and the relative hydraulic conductivity of aquifer and reactive material (Kr). We investigated nitrate removal from groundwater using NPRWs filled by ZVI (in nano and micro scales) and examined the effect of NPRWs orientations (i.e. vertical, slanted, and horizontal) on HCT and Wcz. The dependence of HCT on Wcz for different Kr values was derived theoretically for a homogeneous and isotropic aquifer, and verified using particle tracking simulations performed using the semi-analytical particle tracking and pathlines model (PMPATH). Nine batch experiments were then performed to investigate the impact of mixed nano-ZVI, NZVI (0 to 2 g l-1) and micro-ZVI, MZVI (0 to 4 g l-1) on the nitrate removal rate (with initial [Formula: see text] =132 mg l-1). The NPRWs system was tested in a bench-scale sand medium (60 cm length × 40 cm width × 25 cm height) for three orientations of NPRWs (vertical, horizontal, and slanted with inclination angle of 45°). A mixture of nano/micro ZVI, was used, applying constant conditions of pore water velocity (0.024 mm s-1) and initial nitrate concentration (128 mg l-1) for five pore volumes. The results of the batch tests showed that mixing nano and micro Fe0 outperforms these individual materials in nitrate removal rates. The final products of nitrate degradation in both batch and bench-scale experiments were [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and N2(gas). The results of sand-box experiments indicated that the slanted NPRWs have a higher nitrate reduction rate (57%) in comparison with vertical (38%) and horizontal (41%) configurations. The results also demonstrated that three factors have pivotal roles in expected HCT and Wcz, namely the contrast between the hydraulic conductivity of aquifer and reactive materials within the wells, the mass of Fe0 in the NPRWs, and the orientation of NPRWs adopted. A trade-off between these factors should be considered to increase the efficiency of remediation using the NPRWs system.

Groundwater flow estimation using temperature-depth profiles in a complex environment and a changing climate.

Obtaining reliable estimates of vertical groundwater flows remains a challenge but is of critical importance to the management of groundwater resources. When large scale land clearing or groundwater extraction occurs, methods based on water table fluctuations or water chemistry are unreliable. As an alternative, a number of methods based on temperature-depth (T-z) profiles are available to provide vertical groundwater flow estimates from which recharge rates may be calculated. However, methods that invoke steady state assumptions have been shown to be inappropriate for sites that have experienced land surface warming. Analytical solutions that account for surface warming are available, but they typically include unrealistic or restrictive assumptions (e.g. no flow initial conditions or linear surface warming). Here, we use a new analytical solution and associated computer program (FAST) that provides flexible initial and boundary conditions to estimate fluxes using T-z profiles from the Willunga Super Science Site, a complex, but densely instrumented groundwater catchment in South Australia. T-z profiles from seven wells (ranging from high elevation to near sea level) were utilised, in addition to mean annual air temperatures at nearby weather stations to estimate boundary conditions, and thermal properties were estimated from down borehole geophysics. Temperature based flux estimates were 5 to 23mmy-1, which are similar to those estimated using chloride mass balance. This study illustrates that T-z profiles can be studied to estimate recharge in environments where more commonly applied methods fail.

Applied tracer tests in fractured rock: Can we predict natural gradient solute transport more accurately than fracture and matrix parameters?

Applied tracer tests provide a means to estimate aquifer parameters in fractured rock. The traditional approach to analysing these tests has been using a single fracture model to find the parameter values that generate the best fit to the measured breakthrough curve. In many cases, the ultimate aim is to predict solute transport under the natural gradient. Usually, no confidence limits are placed on parameter values and the impact of parameter errors on predictions of solute transport is not discussed. The assumption inherent in this approach is that the parameters determined under forced conditions will enable prediction of solute transport under the natural gradient. This paper considers the parameter and prediction uncertainty that might arise from analysis of breakthrough curves obtained from forced gradient applied tracer tests. By adding noise to an exact solution for transport in a single fracture in a porous matrix we create multiple realisations of an initial breakthrough curve. A least squares fitting routine is used to obtain a fit to each realisation, yielding a range of parameter values rather than a single set of absolute values. The suite of parameters is then used to make predictions of solute transport under lower hydraulic gradients and the uncertainty of estimated parameters and subsequent predictions of solute transport is compared. The results of this study show that predictions of breakthrough curve characteristics (first inflection point time, peak arrival time and peak concentration) for groundwater flow speeds with orders of magnitude smaller than that at which a test is conducted can sometimes be determined even more accurately than the fracture and matrix parameters.

Multiscale characterization of a heterogeneous aquifer using an ASR operation.

Heterogeneity in the physical properties of an aquifer can significantly affect the viability of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) by reducing the recoverable proportion of low-salinity water where the ambient ground water is brackish or saline. This study investigated the relationship between knowledge of heterogeneity and predictions of solute transport and recovery efficiency by combining permeability and ASR-based tracer testing with modeling. Multiscale permeability testing of a sandy limestone aquifer at an ASR trial site showed that small-scale core data give lower-bound estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K), intermediate-scale downhole flowmeter data offer valuable information on variations in K with depth, and large-scale pumping test data provide an integrated measure of the effective K that is useful to constrain ground water models. Chloride breakthrough and thermal profiling data measured during two cycles of ASR showed that the movement of injected water is predominantly within two stratigraphic layers identified from the flowmeter data. The behavior of the injectant was reasonably well simulated with a four-layer numerical model that required minimal calibration. Verification in the second cycle achieved acceptable results given the model's simplicity. Without accounting for the aquifer's layered structure, high precision could be achieved on either piezometer breakthrough or recovered water quality, but not both. This study demonstrates the merit of an integrated approach to characterizing aquifers targeted for ASR.

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?

The argument that human society can decouple economic growth-defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.

Contrasting responses of water use efficiency to drought across global terrestrial ecosystems.

Drought is an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle that profoundly affects the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, the response of the coupled water and carbon cycles to drought and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first global synthesis of the drought effect on ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE = gross primary production (GPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)). Using two observational WUE datasets (i.e., eddy-covariance measurements at 95 sites (526 site-years) and global gridded diagnostic modelling based on existing observation and a data-adaptive machine learning approach), we find a contrasting response of WUE to drought between arid (WUE increases with drought) and semi-arid/sub-humid ecosystems (WUE decreases with drought), which is attributed to different sensitivities of ecosystem processes to changes in hydro-climatic conditions. WUE variability in arid ecosystems is primarily controlled by physical processes (i.e., evaporation), whereas WUE variability in semi-arid/sub-humid regions is mostly regulated by biological processes (i.e., assimilation). We also find that shifts in hydro-climatic conditions over years would intensify the drought effect on WUE. Our findings suggest that future drought events, when coupled with an increase in climate variability, will bring further threats to semi-arid/sub-humid ecosystems and potentially result in biome reorganization, starting with low-productivity and high water-sensitivity grassland.

Limitations of the use of environmental tracers to infer groundwater age.

Apparent ages obtained from the measured concentrations of environmental tracers have the potential to inform recharge rates, flow rates, and assist in the calibration of groundwater models. A number of studies have investigated sources of error in the relationships between the apparent ages, and the age assumed by models to relate this quantity to an aquifer property (e.g., recharge). These studies have also provided a number of techniques for correcting the known biases of apparent ages. In this paper, we review some of the concepts of age bias. We then demonstrate this bias through the use on four numerical examples, and assess the accuracy of correction methods in overcoming this bias. We examine this for CFCs, SF6, 3H/3He, 39Ar, and 14C. We demonstrate that in our four simple steady-state aquifer examples, bias occurs for a wide range of environmental tracers and flow configurations. When applying correction methods, we found that the values obtained are limited by the model assumptions. Models accounting for exchange with aquitards represent whole mobile zones and not discrete well screens. Mean transit times (comparable to mean ages) obtained from lumped parameter models deviate from actual values as the assumed distribution varies from the actual distribution. Methods that use multiple tracer ages are limited to ranges where both tracers report apparent ages. Our findings suggest that the incorporation of environmental tracer data into the understanding of groundwater systems requires approaches such as the direct use of concentrations, or the simulation of full age distributions.

The Effect of Porous Medium Storage on Unstable Density-Driven Solute Transport.

Unstable density-driven groundwater flow and solute transport (i.e., free convection) leads to spatiotemporal variations in pressure. Specific storage (So ) indicates the capability of a confined aquifer to release or store groundwater associated with a pressure change. Although So is known to dampen pressure propagation, So has been implicitly assumed to have a negligible impact on the unstable free convective process in prior studies. This work explores the effect of So on both the classic onset criterion and the fingering process using numerical models. Results show that the classic onset criterion is applicable when So is smaller than 10(-1) m(-1) . Results also demonstrate that So does not play a significant role in the free convective fingering process unless it is greater than 10(-3) m(-1) . For most practical purposes in hydrogeology (large Rayleigh number and small So ), the implicit assumption of small or zero So is appropriate.

Heat and solute tracers: how do they compare in heterogeneous aquifers?

A comparison of groundwater velocity in heterogeneous aquifers estimated from hydraulic methods, heat and solute tracers was made using numerical simulations. Aquifer heterogeneity was described by geostatistical properties of the Borden, Cape Cod, North Bay, and MADE aquifers. Both heat and solute tracers displayed little systematic under- or over-estimation in velocity relative to a hydraulic control. The worst cases were under-estimates of 6.63% for solute and 2.13% for the heat tracer. Both under- and over-estimation of velocity from the heat tracer relative to the solute tracer occurred. Differences between the estimates from the tracer methods increased as the mean velocity decreased, owing to differences in rates of molecular diffusion and thermal conduction. The variance in estimated velocity using all methods increased as the variance in log-hydraulic conductivity (K) and correlation length scales increased. The variance in velocity for each scenario was remarkably small when compared to σ2 ln(K) for all methods tested. The largest variability identified was for the solute tracer where 95% of velocity estimates ranged by a factor of 19 in simulations where 95% of the K values varied by almost four orders of magnitude. For the same K-fields, this range was a factor of 11 for the heat tracer. The variance in estimated velocity was always lowest when using heat as a tracer. The study results suggest that a solute tracer will provide more understanding about the variance in velocity caused by aquifer heterogeneity and a heat tracer provides a better approximation of the mean velocity.

A correction on coastal heads for groundwater flow models.

We introduce a simple correction to coastal heads for constant-density groundwater flow models that contain a coastal boundary, based on previous analytical solutions for interface flow. The results demonstrate that accurate discharge to the sea in confined aquifers can be obtained by direct application of Darcy's law (for constant-density flow) if the coastal heads are corrected to ((α + 1)/α)hs - B/2α, in which hs is the mean sea level above the aquifer base, B is the aquifer thickness, and α is the density factor. For unconfined aquifers, the coastal head should be assigned the value hs1+α/α. The accuracy of using these corrections is demonstrated by consistency between constant-density Darcy's solution and variable-density flow numerical simulations. The errors introduced by adopting two previous approaches (i.e., no correction and using the equivalent fresh water head at the middle position of the aquifer to represent the hydraulic head at the coastal boundary) are evaluated. Sensitivity analysis shows that errors in discharge to the sea could be larger than 100% for typical coastal aquifer parameter ranges. The location of observation wells relative to the toe is a key factor controlling the estimation error, as it determines the relative aquifer length of constant-density flow relative to variable-density flow. The coastal head correction method introduced in this study facilitates the rapid and accurate estimation of the fresh water flux from a given hydraulic head measurement and allows for an improved representation of the coastal boundary condition in regional constant-density groundwater flow models.