Assessing the costs of ozone pollution in India for wheat producers, consumers, and government food welfare policies.

We assess wheat yield losses occurring due to ozone pollution in India and its economic burden on producers, consumers, and the government. Applying an ozone flux-based risk assessment, we show that ambient ozone levels caused a mean 14.18% reduction in wheat yields during 2008 to 2012. Furthermore, irrigated wheat was particularly sensitive to ozone-induced yield losses, indicating that ozone pollution could undermine climate-change adaptation efforts through irrigation expansion. Applying an economic model, we examine the effects of a counterfactual, "pollution-free" scenario on yield losses, wheat prices, consumer and producer welfare, and government costs. We explore three policy scenarios in which the government support farmers at observed levels of either procurement prices (fixed-price), procurement quantities (fixed-procurement), or procurement expenditure (fixed-expenditure). In pollution-free conditions, the fixed-price scenario absorbs the fall in prices, thus increasing producer welfare by USD 2.7 billion, but total welfare decreases by USD 0.24 billion as government costs increase (USD 2.9 billion). In the fixed-procurement and fixed-expenditure scenarios, ozone mitigation allows wheat prices to fall by 38.19 to 42.96%. The producers lose by USD 5.10 to 6.01 billion, but the gains to consumers and governments (USD 8.7 to 10.2 billion) outweigh these losses. These findings show that the government and consumers primarily bear the costs of ozone pollution. For pollution mitigation to optimally benefit wheat production and maximize social welfare, new approaches to support producers other than fixed-price grain procurement may be required. We also emphasize the need to consider air pollution in programs to improve agricultural resilience to climate change.

Reassessing the availability of crop residue as a bioenergy resource in India: A field-survey based study.

Second-generation bioenergy, a carbon neutral or negative renewable resource, is crucial to achieving India's net-zero emission targets. Crop residues are being targeted as a bioenergy resource as they are otherwise burned on-field, leading to significant pollutant emissions. But estimating their bioenergy potential is problematic because of broad assumptions about their surplus fractions. Here, we use comprehensive surveys and multivariate regression models to estimate the bioenergy potential of surplus crop residues in India. These are with high sub-national and crop disaggregation that can facilitate the development of efficient supply chain mechanisms for its widespread usage. The estimated potential for 2019 of 1313 PJ can increase the present bioenergy installed capacity by 82% but is likely insufficient alone to meet India's bioenergy targets. The shortage of crop residue for bioenergy, combined with the sustainability concerns raised by previous studies, imply a need to reassess the strategy for the use of this resource.

How Much Does Large-Scale Crop Residue Burning Affect the Air Quality in Delhi?

Elevated PM2.5 concentrations frequently cause severe air pollution events in Delhi. Till recently, the effect of crop residue burning on the air quality in Delhi has not been fully quantified and the approaches to control the impact of fire emissions have not been effective. In this study, for the first time, we quantified the statewise contribution of post-monsoon crop residue burning in the northwestern states of India to surface PM2.5 concentrations in Delhi using several sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and FINNv1.5 fire emission inventory. Results were evaluated with ground-based observations in Delhi (21 stations), Punjab, and Haryana (14 stations). On average, ∼20% of PM2.5 concentration in Delhi during the post-monsoon season (October-November) was found to be contributed by nonlocal fire emissions. However, on typical air pollution events, fire emissions contributed as high as 50-75% (80-120 µg/m3) to PM2.5 in Delhi, highlighting the importance of both external transport and local emissions to PM2.5 pollution in Delhi.

Gridded Emissions of CO, NO x, SO2, CO2, NH3, HCl, CH4, PM2.5, PM10, BC, and NMVOC from Open Municipal Waste Burning in India.

Accurate emission inventories serve as critical inputs for air quality and climate models but are poorly constrained over India. We present a new municipal open waste burning emission inventory from India (OWBEII), at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°. Out of the 216 (201-232) Tg y-1 of waste produced in the year 2015, 68 (45-105) Tg y-1 was burned in the open. To determine emissions from waste burning, emission factors of 59 non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), CH4, CO2, CO, and NO x were measured from garbage fires in rural and urban sites in India. The NMVOC emissions from open waste burning of 1.4-2 Tg y-1 increase India's total anthropogenic NMVOC budget by 8-12%, while BC emissions (40-110 Ggy-1) increase the total anthropogenic BC emissions by 8-12%. Open waste burning in India emits 3-7 Tg y-1 of CO and 58-130 Tg y-1 of CO2. Emissions increase the total anthropogenic CO and CO2 in the MIX-Asia inventory by 4-11% and 2-6%, respectively. Open waste burning may affect atmospheric OH reactivity and ozone formation rates downwind of urban centers through the emission of other highly reactive compounds such as acetaldehyde (20-320 Gg y-1), propene (50-170 Gg y-1), and ethene (50-190 Gg y-1) and is s source of carcinogenic benzene (30-280 Gg y-1).

Speciation of Nitrogen-Bearing Species Using Negative and Positive Secondary Ion Spectra with Nano Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry.

In this study, we demonstrate that Nano Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (NanoSIMS) can be used to differentiate different nitrogen-containing species commonly observed in atmospheric aerosol particles with micrometer or submicrometer spatial resolution, on the basis of the relative intensity of secondary ion signals, both in negative and positive secondary ion mode, without the need to chemically or physically separate the samples. Compounds tested include nitrate, nitrite, ammonium salts, urea, amino acids, sugars, organic acids, amides, triazine, imidazole, protein, and biological tissue. We show that NO2(-) secondary ions are unique to the decomposition of nitrate and nitrite salts, whereas NH4(+) secondary ions are unique to samples containing ammonium ions, with low signal intensities observed from amino groups but none from biological tissue. CN(-) signals are obtained from all nitrogen-bearing compounds, but relative signal intensities are the highest for organic nitrogen-containing compounds. We demonstrate that quantitative determination of the elemental fractions of carbon, oxygen, and nitrate in nanometer-sized aerosol samples using normalized secondary ion intensities is possible. We further demonstrate that stable isotope ratios measured on in-house standards of unknown isotopic composition using the (12)C(15)N(-)/(12)C(14)N(-) ratio (all nitrogen-containing species), the (15)N(16)O2(-)/(14)N(16)O2(-) ratio (nitrate and nitrite species), and the (15)NH4(+)/(14)NH4(+) ratio (ammonium salts, amino acids, and urea) are stable and sufficiently precise for nitrogen isotope analysis.

Limitation of the Use of the Absorption Angstrom Exponent for Source Apportionment of Equivalent Black Carbon: a Case Study from the North West Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Angstrom exponent measurements of equivalent black carbon (BCeq) have recently been introduced as a novel tool to apportion the contribution of biomass burning sources to the BCeq mass. The BCeq is the mass of ideal BC with defined optical properties that, upon deposition on the aethalometer filter tape, would cause equal optical attenuation of light to the actual PM2.5 aerosol deposited. The BCeq mass hence is identical to the mass of the total light-absorbing carbon deposited on the filter tape. Here, we use simultaneously collected data from a seven-wavelength aethalometer and a high-sensitivity proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometer installed at a suburban site in Mohali (Punjab), India, to identify a number of biomass combustion plumes. The identified types of biomass combustion include paddy- and wheat-residue burning, leaf litter, and garbage burning. Traffic plumes were selected for comparison. We find that the combustion efficiency, rather than the fuel used, determines αabs, and consequently, the αabs can be ∼1 for flaming biomass combustion and >1 for older vehicles that operate with poorly optimized engines. Thus, the absorption angstrom exponent is not representative of the fuel used and, therefore, cannot be used as a generic tracer to constrain source contributions.

Future emissions of greenhouse gases, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds from municipal solid waste burning in India.

Waste generation projections for the 21st century are important for the investigation of long-term global environmental problems, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with waste management. This paper presents future waste generation and open waste burning projections for India, which are consistent with the scenarios in the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) database. India's waste generation will increase to 547 Tgy-1 and 828 Tgy-1, by 2030 and 2050, respectively, if India's waste generation rates converge to those of developed economies under the fossil fuel based economic growth projections of SSP5. This will increase open waste burning emissions by 140 % and 110 % over 2015 levels by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Business-as-usual projections predict a waste generation of 268 ± 14 Tgy-1 by 2030 and 356 ± 34 Tgy-1 by 2050 and elimination of waste burning other than landfill fires by the mid-2040s. Aggressive promotion of source segregation and treatment of biodegradable waste under a sustainable development scenario (SSP1) can advance this transition despite higher income growth and reduce waste burning from 68 (45-105) Tgy-1 in 2015 to 21-48 Tgy-1 and 2-22 Tgy-1 of waste burning by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The failure of programs targeted at this waste component would result in 31-60 Tgy-1 and 26-108 Tgy-1 of waste burning by 2030 and 2050, respectively. For the SSP5 income trajectory a failure to successfully source segregate and treat biodegradable waste would almost double open waste burning by 2050.

Source apportionment of volatile organic compounds during paddy-residue burning season in north-west India reveals large pool of photochemically formed air toxics.

Paddy-residue burning is associated with poor air quality in north-west India during October-November every year. However, till date a quantitative study of its contribution to ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using highly time-resolved measurements within the region has been lacking. Several VOCs like benzene are carcinogenic and also fuel formation of secondary pollutants such as secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and ozone. Here, we undertake quantitative source-apportionment using a PMF source-receptor model on a high-quality in-situ measured dataset of 54 VOCs in Punjab, India, and validate the model results using source profiles. The contribution of the seven most dominant sources to the total VOC mass concentrations were: daytime photochemistry and biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) (26%), followed by solid-fuel usage and waste-disposal (18%), traffic (two-wheeler 14% and four-wheeler 10%), photochemically aged biomass burning (17%), industries and solvent usage (9%), and fresh paddy residue burning (6%). Ozone production potential was dominated by solid fuel usage and waste disposal (25%), followed by traffic (two-wheeler 11% and four-wheeler 12%), BVOCs and photooxidation products (21%), photochemically aged biomass burning (16%), industries & solvent usage (9%) and fresh paddy residue burning (6%). SOA production was dominated by traffic (two-wheeler 26% and four-wheeler 28%) followed by solid fuel usage and waste disposal (22%), photochemically aged biomass burning emissions (15%) with minor contribution from industries & solvents (6%), fresh paddy residue burning (2%) and photochemistry and biogenic VOCs (1%). Comparisons with global emission inventories REASv3.2.1 and EDGARv4.3.2, showed both overestimate the industry and solvent source. Further, EDGARv4.3.2 underestimated the traffic source whereas paddy residue burning emissions are absent in REASv3.2.1. Although the overall mass contribution of paddy-residue burning emissions isn't high, our results show that health-relevant compounds emitted directly and formed photochemically from biomass burning sources active at this time are majorly responsible for the unhealthy air.

Thermodynamical framework for effective mitigation of high aerosol loading in the Indo-Gangetic Plain during winter.

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) experiences severe air pollution every winter, with ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate as the major inorganic fractions of fine aerosols. Many past attempts to tackle air pollution in the IGP were inadequate, as they targeted a subset of the primary pollutants in an environment where the majority of the particulate matter burden is secondary in nature. Here, we provide new mechanistic insight into aerosol mitigation by integrating the ISORROPIA-II thermodynamical model with high-resolution simultaneous measurements of precursor gases and aerosols. A mathematical framework is explored to investigate the complex interaction between hydrochloric acid (HCl), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and aerosol liquid water content (ALWC). Aerosol acidity (pH) and ALWC emerge as governing factors that modulate the gas-to-particle phase partitioning and mass loading of fine aerosols. Six "sensitivity regimes" were defined, where PM1 and PM2.5 fall in the "HCl and HNO3 sensitive regime", emphasizing that HCl and HNO3 reductions would be the most effective pathway for aerosol mitigation in the IGP, which is ammonia-rich during winter. This study provides evidence that precursor abatement for aerosol mitigation should not be based on their descending mass concentrations but instead on their sensitivity to high aerosol loading.

Will open waste burning become India's largest air pollution source?

India struggles with frequent exceedances of the ambient air quality standard for particulate matter and benzene. In the past two decades, India has made considerable progress in tackling indoor air pollution, by phasing out kerosene lamps, and pushing biofuel using households towards Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) usage. In this study, we use updated emission inventories and trends in residential fuel consumption, to explore changes in the contribution of different sectors towards India's largest air pollution problem. We find that residential fuel usage is still the largest air pollution source, and that the <10% households using cow dung as cooking fuel contribute ∼50% of the residential PM2.5 emissions. However, if current trends persist, residential biofuel usage in India is likely to be phased out by 2035. India's renewable energy policies are likely to reduce emissions in the heat and electricity sector, and manufacturing industries, in the mid-term. PM2.5 emissions from open waste burning, on the other hand, hardly changed in the decade from 2010 to 2020. We conclude that without strong policies to promote recycling and upcycling of non-biodegradable waste, and the conversion of biodegradable waste to biogas, open waste burning is likely to become India's largest source of air pollution by 2035. While our study is limited to India, our findings are of relevance for other countries in the global South suffering from similar waste management challenges.

Nocturnal pollutant uptake contributes significantly to the total stomatal uptake of Mangifera indica.

DO3SE (Deposition of Ozone for Stomatal Exchange), is a dry deposition model, designed to assess tropospheric ozone risk to vegetation, and is based on two alternative algorithms to estimate stomatal conductance: multiplicative and photosynthetic. The multiplicative model has been argued to perform better for leaf-level and regional-level application. In this study, we demonstrate that the photosynthetic model is superior to the multiplicative model even for leaf-level studies using measurements performed on Mangifera indica. We find that the multiplicative model overestimates the daytime stomatal conductance, when compared with measured stomatal conductance and prescribes zero conductance at night while measurements show an average conductance of 100 mmol(H2O)m-2s-1 between 9 p.m. and 4 a.m. The daytime overestimation of the multiplicative model can be significantly reduced when the model is modified to include a response function for ozone-induced stomatal closure. However, nighttime pollutant uptake fluxes can only be accurately assessed with the photosynthetic model which includes the stomatal opening at night during respiration and is capable of reproducing the measured nighttime stomatal conductance. At our site, the nocturnal flux contributes 64%, 39%, 46%, and 88% of the total for NO2 uptake in winter, summer, monsoon, and post-monsoon, respectively. For SO2, nocturnal uptake amounts to 35%, 28%, 28%, and 44% in winter, summer, monsoon, and post-monsoon, respectively while for ozone the nighttime uptake contributes 30%, 17%, 18%, and 29% of the total stomatal uptake in winter, summer, monsoon, and post-monsoon respectively.

Replacing the greater evil: Can legalizing decentralized waste burning in improved devices reduce waste burning emissions for improved air quality?

Open waste burning emissions constitute a significant source of air pollution affecting human health in India. In regions where cleaner fuels have displaced solid biofuel usage, open waste burning is rapidly becoming one of the largest sources of airborne human class-I-carcinogens and particulate matter. As the establishment of waste management infrastructure in rural India is likely to take years, we explore whether health-relevant emissions can be reduced by legalizing the burning of dry non-biodegradable waste in improved devices. We measure the emission factors of 76 VOCs, CH4, CO, and CO2 from different types of waste burned in two different improved devices, a burn basket and a local water heater. Based on our experiments, we create four "what-if" intervention scenarios to assess the improvement of air quality due to the emission reductions that can be accomplished by four management strategies. We find that substituting the traditional, more polluting water heating fuels with dry plastic waste across rural India can reduce primary emissions (e.g., -29 Ggy-1 for benzene) and ozone formation potential (-2960 Ggy-1) from open waste burning. When dry waste is used in lieu of more polluting fuels, and its burning serves a purpose, the net class-I-carcinogen benzene emissions, would be halved compared to the present. The change in emissions for the class-I carcinogen 1,3-butadiene would become net negative. This happens because the emissions avoided when part of the solid biofuel currently used in rural India is replaced by plastic waste (4.1 (1.2-4.1) Ggy-1) exceed the waste burning emissions of this compound (3 (1.2-3.7) Ggy-1) by so much, that residential sector emission reductions offset all waste burning emissions including those of landfill fires. Our study demonstrates that India's air quality can be improved by permitting and promoting the use of dry packaging waste in lieu of traditional biofuels and by promoting improved burning devices.

Enhanced secondary aerosol formation driven by excess ammonia during fog episodes in Delhi, India.

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) has high wintertime fine aerosol loadings that significantly modulate the widespread fog formation and sustenance. Here, we investigate the potential formation of secondary inorganic aerosol driven by excess ammonia during winter fog. Physicochemical properties of fine aerosols (PM1 and PM2.5) and trace gases (HCl, HONO, HNO3, SO2, and NH3) were simultaneously monitored at hourly resolution using Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in Ambient air (MARGA-2S) for the first time in India. Results showed that four major ions, i.e., Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, and NH4+ contributed approximately 97% of the total measured inorganic ionic mass. The atmosphere was ammonia-rich in winter and ammonium was the dominant neutralizer with aerosol neutralization ratio (ANR) close to unity. The correlation between ammonium and chloride was ≥0.8, implying the significant formation of ammonium chloride during fog in Delhi. Thermodynamical model ISORROPIA-II showed the predicted PM1 and PM2.5 pH to be 4.49 ± 0.53, and 4.58 ± 0.48 respectively which were in good agreement with measurements. The ALWC increased from non-foggy to foggy periods and a considerable fraction of fine aerosol mass existed in the supermicron size range of 1-2.5 µm. The sulfur oxidation ratio (SOR) of PM1, PM2.5 reached up to 0.60, 0.75 in dense fog and 0.74, 0.87 when ambient RH crossed a threshold of 95%, much higher than non-foggy periods (with confidence level of ≥95%) pointing to enhanced formation of secondary aerosol in fog.

Gridded 1 km × 1 km emission inventory for paddy stubble burning emissions over north-west India constrained by measured emission factors of 77 VOCs and district-wise crop yield data.

Every year in the post-monsoon season, ~1.7 billion tons of paddy stubble is burnt openly in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) producing persistent smog and air quality deterioration that affects the entire IGP. Information concerning the identity, amounts and spatial distribution of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which drive ozone and aerosol formation is still largely unknown as existing global emission inventories have poor VOC speciation and rely on limited satellite overpasses for mapping burnt areas. Here, emission factors (EFs) of 77 VOCs were measured from paddy fire smoke and combined with 1 km × 1 km stubble burning activity constrained by annual crop production yields and detected fires to compile a new gridded emission inventory for 2017. Our results reveal a large source of acetaldehyde (37.5 ± 9.6 Ggy-1), 2-furaldehyde (37.1 ± 12.5 Ggy-1), acetone (34.7 ± 13.6 Ggy-1), benzene (9.9 ± 2.8 Ggy-1) and isocyanic acid (0.4 ± 0.2 Ggy-1) that are not accounted for by existing emission inventories (GFED, GFAS, FINv2.1). During October-November, these emissions (346 ± 65 Ggy-1 NMVOC; 38 ± 8 Ggy-1 NOx; 16 ± 4 Ggy-1 NH3; 129 ± 9 Ggy-1 PM2.5; 22,125 ± 3674 Ggy-1 GHG CO2 equivalents) are more than 20 times larger than corresponding emissions from traffic and municipal waste burning over north-west India. Mitigation of this source alone can therefore yield massive air-quality climate co-benefits for more than 500 million people.

Appraisal of regional haze event and its relationship with PM2.5 concentration, crop residue burning and meteorology in Chandigarh, India.

Air pollution affects not only the air quality in megacities but also in medium and small-sized cities due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and other anthropogenic activities. From October 28, 2015 to November 3, 2015, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region, including Chandigarh encountered an episode of poor visibility during the daytime. The daily average PM2.5 concentration reached 191 µg/m3, and visibility reduced by ∼2.2 times in the Chandigarh region. PM2.5 concentration was found around 4 times higher than a non-haze day and more than 3 times higher than National Ambient Air Quality Standards for 24 h. A significant correlation between PM2.5 and CO (r: 0.87) during the haze period indicated similarity in their emission sources; which was attributed to the burning of solid organic matter. Further, satellite data and back-trajectory analysis of air masses showed large-scale rice stubble burning in the agricultural fields, adjoining to the city areas. The transboundary movement of air masses below 500 m and meteorological conditions played a major role in building the pollution load in the Chandigarh region. Moreover, the enhanced concentration of biomass burning tracers, i.e., organic carbon (∼3.8 times) and K+ ions (2∼ times) in PM2.5 and acetonitrile (∼2.3 times) in ambient air was observed during the haze event. The study demonstrates how regional emissions and meteorological conditions can affect the air quality in a city; which can be useful for proper planning and mitigation policies to minimize high air pollution episodes.