Evaluating the performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) in fracture risk prediction and developing a new Charlson Fracture Index (CFI): a register-based cohort study.

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) may be applicable for predicting fracture risk since several diagnoses from the index are predictors of fracture. Main results were that the CCI was updated to predict risk of hip fracture with fair precision and that the index could be useful in detecting high-risk individuals. PURPOSE: Several of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) diagnoses are validated predictors of fracture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the CCI 1987 by Charlson et al. and of the CCI 2011 by Quan et al. in predicting major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF). Furthermore, it was examined whether the index could be modified to improve fracture risk prediction. METHODS: The study population included the entire Danish population aged 45 + years as per January 1, 2018. The cohort was split randomly 50/50 into a development and a validation cohort. CCI diagnoses and fracture outcomes were identified from hospital diagnoses. The weighting of diagnoses was updated in a new Charlson Fracture Index (CFI) using multivariable logistic regression. Predictive capabilities of the CCI 1987, the updated CCI 2011 and the new Charlson Fracture index were evaluated in the validation cohort by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: In the validation cohort, the 1987 and 2011 CCIs resulted in AUCs below or around 0.7 in prediction of MOF and HF in both sexes. The CFI resulted in AUCs < 0.7 in prediction of MOF in both sexes. In prediction of HF, the CFI resulted in AUC of 0.755 (95% CI 0.749; 0.761) in women and 0.782 (95% CI 0.772; 0.793) in men. CONCLUSION: The 1987 and 2011 CCIs showed overall poor accuracy in fracture risk prediction. The CFI showed fair accuracy in prediction of HF in women and in men.

The treatment gap after major osteoporotic fractures in Denmark 2005-2014: a combined analysis including both prescription-based and hospital-administered anti-osteoporosis medications.

This study demonstrates a substantial and persistent anti-osteoporosis treatment gap in men and women ≥50 years old who sustained major osteoporotic fracture(s) between 2005 and 2014 in Denmark. This was not substantially reduced by including hospital-administered anti-osteoporosis treatments. Strengthened post-fracture organization of care and secondary fracture prevention is highly needed. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Danish anti-osteoporosis treatment gap from 2005 to 2014 in patients sustaining a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), and to assess the impact of including hospital-administered anti-osteoporosis medications (AOM) on the treatment gap among these patients. METHODS: In this retrospective, registry-based study, we included men and women aged 50 years or older and living in Denmark, who sustained at least one MOF between 2005 and 2014. We applied a repeated cross-sectional design to generate cohorts of patients sustaining a first MOF, hip, vertebral, humerus, or forearm fracture, respectively, within each calendar year. We evaluated the treatment gap as the proportion of patients within each cohort not receiving treatment with AOM within 1 year of the fracture. Hospital-administered AOM was identified by SKS code. RESULTS: The treatment gap among MOF patients decreased from 85% in 2005 to 79% in 2014. The gap was smaller among hip and vertebral fracture patients as compared to humerus and forearm fracture patients, and it was smaller in women than in men. The use of hospital-administered AOM was relatively uncommon, with a maximum of 0.9% of MOF patients initiating hospital-administered AOM (in 2012). We observed substantial variations in this proportion between fracture types and gender. Hospital-administered AOM was most commonly used among vertebral fracture patients. CONCLUSION: A significant treatment gap among patients sustaining a major osteoporotic fracture was present throughout our analysis, and including hospital-administered AOM did not significantly improve the treatment gap assessment. Improved secondary fracture prevention is urgently needed.

Secular trends in the initiation of therapy in secondary fracture prevention in Europe: a multi-national cohort study including data from Denmark, Catalonia, and the United Kingdom.

This paper demonstrates a large post-fracture anti-osteoporosis treatment gap in the period 2005 to 2015. The gap was stable in Denmark at around 88-90%, increased in Catalonia from 80 to 88%, and started to increase in the UK towards the end of our study. Improved post-fracture care is needed. INTRODUCTION: Patients experiencing a fragility fracture are at high risk of subsequent fractures, particularly within the first 2 years after the fracture. Previous studies have demonstrated that only a small proportion of fracture patients initiate therapy with an anti-osteoporotic medication (AOM), despite the proven fracture risk reduction of such therapies. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the changes in this post-fracture treatment gap across three different countries from 2005 to 2015. METHODS: This analysis, which is part of a multinational cohort study, included men and women, aged 50 years or older, sustaining a first incident fragility fracture. Using routinely collected patient data from three administrative health databases covering Catalonia, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, we estimated the treatment gap as the proportion of patients not treated with AOM within 1 year of their first incident fracture. RESULTS: A total of 648,369 fracture patients were included. Mean age 70.2-78.9 years; 22.2-31.7% were men. In Denmark, the treatment gap was stable at approximately 88-90% throughout the 2005 to 2015 time period. In Catalonia, the treatment gap increased from 80 to 88%. In the UK, an initially decreasing treatment gap-though never smaller than 63%-was replaced by an increasing gap towards the end of our study. The gap was more pronounced in men than in women. CONCLUSION: Despite repeated calls for improved secondary fracture prevention, an unacceptably large treatment gap remains, with time trends indicating that the problem may be getting worse in recent years.

Long term time trends in use of medications associated with risk of developing osteoporosis: Nationwide data for Denmark from 1999 to 2016.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the development in the use of medications associated with an increased risk of developing osteoporosis over the time period from 1999 to 2016. METHODS: We extracted data on total sale, sales rate and usage rate for the medications of interest from www.medstat.dk, which is an online, open-source database reporting the monthly sale of both over-the-counter and prescription-based medications in Denmark. The dataset covers both the primary and secondary health sectors. RESULTS: Most medications exhibited an increasing use from 1999 to 2016, though some had stable (e.g. glucocorticoids) or declining use. Notably, some medications showed widespread and increasing use, including proton pump inhibitors (PPI), selective serotonine reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and venlafaxine. For PPI, sales rates increased by 461% from 1999 to 2016, with 9% of men and 11.4% of women filling at least one prescription in 2016. The use of SSRI and venlafaxine increased by 114% and 613%, respectively. This was more pronounced in women and for SSRI also in the elderly (80+ years). The sale of aromatase inhibitors was moderate (1-10 DDD per 1000 capita per day) in 2016, yet grew by 2400% from 1999, almost exclusively in women aged 80 years or older. CONCLUSION: We found a trend of increasing use from 1999 to 2016 of most medications with a potential for causing osteoporosis, often most pronounced in fracture risk groups (postmenopausal women and/or in the elderly). This may play a clinically relevant role in both current and future causality of osteoporosis.