Predicting future medical needs and mortality risk in geriatric long-term care patients : Development and validation of the Nascher score and revised Nascher score.

BACKGROUND: Choosing the right intensity of medical care is a huge challenge particularly in long-term geriatric care. The Nascher score was developed to assess future medical care needs. The aim of this study was to determine whether the Nascher score and a revised version can predict future medical needs. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 396 residents in long-term care hospitals, who were admitted over a period of two years and followed up to two and a half yeare, were analysed. Outcome parameters were: (1) number of medication changes, (2) number of ward doctor documentations and (3) number of acute illnesses treated with antibiotics, and mortality risk. Based on the first results, an alternative scoring of the Nascher score with 12 instead of 26 items was developed, called the revised Nascher score. RESULTS: The Nascher score significantly correlated with the number of medication changes, the number of ward doctor documentations, and the number of acute ilnesses treated with antibiotics with Spearman correlation coefficients of 0.30, 0.26, and 0.15, respectively. The revised Nascher score showed a higher correlation with correlation coefficients of 0.36, 0.26, and 0.21, respectively. Residents with a Nascher score in the highest quartile had a significantly higher mortality risk than residents in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio, HR 2.97, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.80-4.34). The corresponding values for the revised Nascher score were HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.03-4.54 in the highest and HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.24-2.60 in the middle quartiles. CONCLUSION: The Nascher score and even more so the revised Nascher score are well suited to predicting the various parameters of future medical needs and mortality risk.

Prevalence and incidence of venous thromboembolism in geriatric patients admitted to long-term care hospitals.

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) increases with age. However, the risk of VTE in the setting of long-term care hospitals is understudied. Our objective was to provide data on the prevalence and incidence of VTE in older adults admitted to long-term care hospitals. In this retrospective cohort study, we collected data about chronically ill and multimorbid patients aged 65 years and older from two long-term care hospitals. The primary endpoint of this study was the lifetime prevalence of VTE, and the secondary endpoint was VTE incidence during residency in long-term care hospitals. We analysed data from 1148 patients with a mean age of 84.1 ± 7.9 years, of whom 74.2% were women. The lifetime prevalence of VTE at baseline was 9.6% (95% CI 7.9-11.4). Cumulative incidence of VTE at 1, 2, and 3 years from baseline was estimated at 3.5% (95% CI 2.5-4.7), 4.2% (95% CI 3.1-5.5), and 5.4% (95% CI 4.1-7.0), respectively. Overall, the incidence rate of VTE in our study was 2.82 (95% CI 2.18-3.66) per 100 person-years. The study indicated a considerably high lifetime prevalence and incidence of VTE during residence in long-term care hospital settings, requiring further evaluation in larger prospective studies.