Prognostic impact and causality of age on oncological outcomes in women with endometrial cancer: a multimethod analysis of the randomised PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that older women with endometrial cancer have a higher risk of recurrence and cancer-related death. However, it remains unclear whether older age is a causal prognostic factor, or whether other risk factors become increasingly common with age. We aimed to address this question with a unique multimethod study design using state-of-the-art statistical and causal inference techniques on datasets of three large, randomised trials. METHODS: In this multimethod analysis, data from 1801 women participating in the randomised PORTEC-1, PORTEC-2, and PORTEC-3 trials were used for statistical analyses and causal inference. The cohort included 714 patients with intermediate-risk endometrial cancer, 427 patients with high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer, and 660 patients with high-risk endometrial cancer. Associations of age with clinicopathological and molecular features were analysed using non-parametric tests. Multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic value of age. To analyse age as a causal prognostic variable, a deep learning causal inference model called AutoCI was used. FINDINGS: Median follow-up as estimated using the reversed Kaplan-Meier method was 12·3 years (95% CI 11·9-12·6) for PORTEC-1, 10·5 years (10·2-10·7) for PORTEC-2, and 6·1 years (5·9-6·3) for PORTEC-3. Both overall recurrence and endometrial cancer-specific death significantly increased with age. Moreover, older women had a higher frequency of deep myometrial invasion, serous tumour histology, and p53-abnormal tumours. Age was an independent risk factor for both overall recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1·02 per year, 95% CI 1·01-1·04; p=0·0012) and endometrial cancer-specific death (HR 1·03 per year, 1·01-1·05; p=0·0012) and was identified as a significant causal variable. INTERPRETATION: This study showed that advanced age was associated with more aggressive tumour features in women with endometrial cancer, and was independently and causally related to worse oncological outcomes. Therefore, our findings suggest that older women with endometrial cancer should not be excluded from diagnostic assessments, molecular testing, and adjuvant therapy based on their age alone. FUNDING: None.

Molecular and Clinicopathologic Characterization of Mismatch Repair-Deficient Endometrial Carcinoma Not Related to MLH1 Promoter Hypermethylation.

Universal tumor screening in endometrial carcinoma (EC) is increasingly adopted to identify individuals at risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). These cases involve mismatch repair-deficient (MMRd) EC without MLH1 promoter hypermethylation (PHM). LS is confirmed through the identification of germline MMR pathogenic variants (PV). In cases where these are not detected, emerging evidence highlights the significance of double-somatic MMR gene alterations as a sporadic cause of MMRd, alongside POLE/POLD1 exonuclease domain (EDM) PV leading to secondary MMR PV. Our understanding of the incidence of different MMRd EC origins not related to MLH1-PHM, their associations with clinicopathologic characteristics, and the prognostic implications remains limited. In a combined analysis of the PORTEC-1, -2, and -3 trials (n = 1254), 84 MMRd EC not related to MLH1-PHM were identified that successfully underwent paired tumor-normal tissue next-generation sequencing of the MMR and POLE/POLD1 genes. Among these, 37% were LS associated (LS-MMRd EC), 38% were due to double-somatic hits (DS-MMRd EC), and 25% remained unexplained. LS-MMRd EC exhibited higher rates of MSH6 (52% vs 19%) or PMS2 loss (29% vs 3%) than DS-MMRd EC, and exclusively showed MMR-deficient gland foci. DS-MMRd EC had higher rates of combined MSH2/MSH6 loss (47% vs 16%), loss of >2 MMR proteins (16% vs 3%), and somatic POLE-EDM PV (25% vs 3%) than LS-MMRd EC. Clinicopathologic characteristics, including age at tumor onset and prognosis, did not differ among the various groups. Our study validates the use of paired tumor-normal next-generation sequencing to identify definitive sporadic causes in MMRd EC unrelated to MLH1-PHM. MMR immunohistochemistry and POLE-EDM mutation status can aid in the differentiation between LS-MMRd EC and DS-MMRd EC. These findings emphasize the need for integrating tumor sequencing into LS diagnostics, along with clear interpretation guidelines, to improve clinical management. Although not impacting prognosis, confirmation of DS-MMRd EC may release patients and relatives from burdensome LS surveillance.

Prognostic refinement of NSMP high-risk endometrial cancers using oestrogen receptor immunohistochemistry.

BACKGROUND: Risk-assessment of endometrial cancer (EC) is based on clinicopathological factors and molecular subgroup. It is unclear whether adding hormone receptor expression, L1CAM expression or CTNNB1 status yields prognostic refinement. METHODS: Paraffin-embedded tumour samples of women with high-risk EC (HR-EC) from the PORTEC-3 trial (n = 424), and a Dutch prospective clinical cohort called MST (n = 256), were used. All cases were molecularly classified. Expression of L1CAM, ER and PR were analysed by whole-slide immunohistochemistry and CTNNB1 mutations were assessed with a next-generation sequencing. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests and Cox's proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis. RESULTS: In total, 648 HR-EC were included. No independent prognostic value of ER, PR, L1CAM, and CTNNB1 was found, while age, stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy had an independent impact on risk of recurrence. Subgroup-analysis showed that only in NSMP HR-EC, ER-positivity was independently associated with a reduced risk of recurrence (HR 0.33, 95%CI 0.15-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the prognostic impact of the molecular classification, age, stage, and adjuvant CTRT in a large cohort of high-risk EC. ER-positivity is a strong favourable prognostic factor in NSMP HR-EC and identifies a homogeneous subgroup of NSMP tumours. Assessment of ER status in high-risk NSMP EC is feasible in clinical practice and could improve risk stratification and treatment.

p53 immunohistochemistry in endometrial cancer: clinical and molecular correlates in the PORTEC-3 trial.

Standard molecular classification of endometrial cancers (EC) is now endorsed by the WHO and identifies p53-abnormal (p53abn) EC as the subgroup with the poorest prognosis and the most likely to benefit from adjuvant chemo(radio)therapy. P53abn EC are POLE wildtype, mismatch repair proficient and show abnormal immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for p53. Correct interpretation of routinely performed p53 IHC has therefore become of paramount importance. We aimed to comprehensively investigate abnormal p53 IHC patterns and their relation to clinicopathological and molecular features. Tumor material of 411 molecularly classified high-risk EC from consenting patients from the PORTEC-3 clinical trial were collected. p53 IHC was successful in 408 EC and was considered abnormal when the tumor showed a mutant expression pattern (including subclonal): overexpression, null or cytoplasmic. The presence of pathogenic mutations was determined by next generation sequencing (NGS). Abnormal p53 expression was observed in 131/408 (32%) tumors. The most common abnormal p53 IHC pattern was overexpression (n = 89, 68%), followed by null (n = 12, 9%) and cytoplasmic (n = 3, 2%). Subclonal abnormal p53 staining was observed in 27 cases (21%), which was frequently but not exclusively, associated with POLE mutations and/or MMRd (n = 22/27; p < 0.001). Agreement between p53 IHC and TP53 NGS was observed in 90.7%, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 83.6% and 94.3%, respectively. Excluding POLEmut and MMRd EC, as per the WHO-endorsed algorithm, increased the accuracy to 94.5% with sensitivity and specificity of 95.0% and 94.1%, respectively. Our data shows that awareness of the abnormal p53 IHC patterns are prerequisites for correct EC molecular classification. Subclonal abnormal p53 expression is a strong indicator for POLEmut and/or MMRd EC. No significant differences in clinical outcomes were observed among the abnormal p53 IHC patterns. Our data support use of the WHO-endorsed algorithm and combining the different abnormal p53 IHC patterns into one diagnostic entity (p53abn EC).

Development and validation of a supervised deep learning algorithm for automated whole-slide programmed death-ligand 1 tumour proportion score assessment in non-small cell lung cancer.

AIMS: Immunohistochemical programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) staining to predict responsiveness to immunotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has several drawbacks: a robust gold standard is lacking, and there is substantial interobserver and intraobserver variance, with up to 20% discordance around cutoff points. The aim of this study was to develop a new deep learning-based PD-L1 tumour proportion score (TPS) algorithm, trained and validated on a routine diagnostic dataset of digitised PD-L1 (22C3, laboratory-developed test)-stained samples. METHODS AND RESULTS: We designed a fully supervised deep learning algorithm for whole-slide PD-L1 assessment, consisting of four sequential convolutional neural networks (CNNs), using aiforia create software. We included 199 whole slide images (WSIs) of 'routine diagnostic' histology samples from stage IV NSCLC patients, and trained the algorithm by using a training set of 60 representative cases. We validated the algorithm by comparing the algorithm TPS with the reference score in a held-out validation set. The algorithm had similar concordance with the reference score (79%) as the pathologists had with one another (75%). The intraclass coefficient was 0.96 and Cohen's κ coefficient was 0.69 for the algorithm. Around the 1% and 50% cutoff points, concordance was also similar between pathologists and the algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: We designed a new, deep learning-based PD-L1 TPS algorithm that is similarly able to assess PD-L1 expression in daily routine diagnostic cases as pathologists. Successful validation on routine diagnostic WSIs and detailed visual feedback show that this algorithm meets the requirements for functioning as a 'scoring assistant'.

Prognostic relevance of the molecular classification in high-grade endometrial cancer for patients staged by lymphadenectomy and without adjuvant treatment.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical role of the molecular endometrial cancer (EC) classification has not been fully explored in patients staged with lymphadenectomy or without adjuvant treatment, conditions that could potentially moderate the prognostic value of the classification. We aimed to evaluate the clinical outcome of the molecular subgroups in patients with high-grade EC staged by lymphadenectomy and those without adjuvant treatment. METHODS: DNA-sequencing for the detection of pathogenic POLE-exonuclease domain mutations and immunohistochemistry for mismatch repair (MMR) proteins and p53 expression were performed on 412 high-grade EC from the Danish Gynaecological Cancer Database (2005-2012) to classify them as POLE-ultramutated (POLEmut), MMR-deficient (MMRd), p53-mutant (p53abn), or no specific molecular profile (NSMP). Patients with stage IV or residual disease after surgery were excluded. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard models were used for analysis. RESULTS: Molecular analysis was successful in 367 EC; 251 patients had undergone lymphadenectomy. Five-year recurrence rates in this subgroup of patients was 36.7% for women with p53abn EC, 0.0% for POLEmut EC, 13.4% for MMRd EC and 42.9% for NSMP EC (p < 0.001). Similar results were observed among stage IA-IB patients. Among patients without adjuvant treatment (n = 264), none with POLEmut EC (n = 26) had a recurrence. CONCLUSION: The molecular EC classification has strong prognostic value, independent of clinicopathological factors, also among high-grade EC patients staged by lymphadenectomy and those without adjuvant treatment. The unfavourable prognosis of early-stage p53abn EC is not due to undetected lymph node metastasis, and the indolent behaviour of POLEmut EC is independent of adjuvant treatment.

Substantial Lymphovascular Space Invasion Is an Adverse Prognostic Factor in High-Risk Endometrial Cancer.

Approximately 15% of patients with endometrial cancer present with high-risk disease (HREC). Moreover, assessing the extent of lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) may provide prognostic insight among patients with HREC. The aim of this study was to determine whether the extent of LVSI can serve as a prognostic factor in HREC. All cases of ESMO-ESGO-ESTRO 2016 classified HREC in the Danish Gynecological Cancer Database (DGCD) diagnosed from 2005 to 2012 were reviewed for the presence and extent of LVSI (categorized using a 3-tiered definition). We used the Kaplan-Meier analysis to calculate actuarial survival rates, both adjusted and unadjusted Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the proportional hazard ratio (HR). A total of 376 patients were included in our analysis. Among 305 patients with stage I/II HREC, 8.2% and 6.2% had focal or substantial LVSI, respectively, compared with 12.7% and 38.0% of 71 patients with stage III/IV HREC, respectively. Moreover, the estimated 5-yr recurrence-free survival rate was significantly lower among patients with substantial LVSI compared with patients with no LVSI for both stage I/II (HR: 2.8; P=0.011) and stage III/IV (HR: 2.9; P=0.003) patients. Similarly, overall survival was significantly lower among patients with substantial LVSI for both stage I/II (HR: 3.1; P<0.001) and stage III/IV (HR: 3.2; P=0.020) patients. In patients with HREC, substantial LVSI is an independent adverse prognostic factor for lymph node and distant metastases, leading to reduced survival. Thus, the extent of LVSI should be incorporated into routine pathology reports in order to guide the appropriate choice of adjuvant treatment.

Defining Substantial Lymphovascular Space Invasion in Endometrial Cancer.

Lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) occurs in a minority of endometrial cancer (EC) cases, and the extent of LVSI is an important risk factor for recurrence and/or metastases. Our aim was to improve the reproducibility of measuring clinically meaningful LVSI by performing a quantitative analysis of the correlation between LVSI and the risk of pelvic lymph node recurrence in EC. EC samples from PORTEC-1 and PORTEC-2 trials were retrieved and used to collect quantitative data, including the number of LVSI-positive vessels per H&E-stained slide. Using a predefined threshold for clinical relevance, the risk of pelvic lymph node recurrence risk was calculated (Kaplan-Meier method, with Cox regression) using a stepwise adjustment for the number of LVSI-positive vessels. This analysis was then repeated in the Danish Gynecological Cancer Database (DGCD) cohort. Among patients in PORTEC-1 and PORTEC-2 trials who did not receive external beam radiotherapy, the 5-yr pelvic lymph node recurrence risk was 3.3%, 6.7% (P=0.51), and 26.3% (P<0.001), respectively when 0, 1 to 3, or ≥4 vessels had LVSI involvement; similar results were obtained for the DGCD cohort. Furthermore, both the average number of tumor cells in the largest embolus and the number of LVSI-positive H&E slides differed significantly between focal LVSI and substantial LVSI. On the basis of these results, we propose a numeric threshold (≥4 LVSI-involved vessels in at least one H&E slide) for defining clinically relevant LVSI in EC, thereby adding supportive data to the semiquantitative approach. This will help guide gynecologic pathologists to differentiate between focal and substantial LVSI, especially in borderline cases.

Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.

Practical Guidance for Measuring and Reporting Surgical Margins in Vulvar Cancer.

Surgical resection with free surgical margins is the cornerstone of successful primary treatment of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC). In general reexcision is recommended when the minimum peripheral surgical margin (MPSM) is <8 mm microscopically. Pathologists are, therefore, required to report the minimum distance from the tumor to the surgical margin. Currently, there are no guidelines on how to make this measurement, as this is often considered straightforward. However, during the 2018 Annual Meeting of the British Association of Gynaecological Pathologists (BAGP), a discussion on this topic revealed a variety of opinions with regard to reporting and method of measuring margin clearance in VSCC specimens. Given the need for uniformity and the lack of guidance in the literature, we initiated an online survey in order to deliver a consensus-based definition of peripheral surgical margins in VSCC resections. The survey included questions and representative diagrams of peripheral margin measurements. In total, 57 pathologists participated in this survey. On the basis of consensus results, we propose to define MPSM in VSCC as the minimum distance from the peripheral edge of the invasive tumor nests toward the inked peripheral surgical margin reported in millimeters. This MPSM measurement should run through tissue and preferably be measured in a straight line. Along with MPSM, other relevant measurements such as depth of invasion or tumor thickness and distance to deep margins should be reported. This manuscript provides guidance to the practicing pathologist in measuring MPSM in VSCC resection specimens, in order to promote uniformity in measuring and reporting.

Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone in women with high-risk endometrial cancer (PORTEC-3): patterns of recurrence and post-hoc survival analysis of a randomised phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The PORTEC-3 trial investigated the benefit of combined adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy versus pelvic radiotherapy alone for women with high-risk endometrial cancer. We updated the analysis to investigate patterns of recurrence and did a post-hoc survival analysis. METHODS: In the multicentre randomised phase 3 PORTEC-3 trial, women with high-risk endometrial cancer were eligible if they had International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2009 stage I, endometrioid grade 3 cancer with deep myometrial invasion or lymphovascular space invasion, or both; stage II or III disease; or stage I-III disease with serous or clear cell histology; were aged 18 years and older; and had a WHO performance status of 0-2. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone (48·6 Gy in 1·8 Gy fractions given on 5 days per week) or chemoradiotherapy (two cycles of cisplatin 50 mg/m2 given intravenously during radiotherapy, followed by four cycles of carboplatin AUC5 and paclitaxel 175 mg/m2 given intravenously), by use of a biased coin minimisation procedure with stratification for participating centre, lymphadenectomy, stage, and histological type. The co-primary endpoints were overall survival and failure-free survival. Secondary endpoints of vaginal, pelvic, and distant recurrence were analysed according to the first site of recurrence. Survival endpoints were analysed by intention-to-treat, and adjusted for stratification factors. Competing risk methods were used for failure-free survival and recurrence. We did a post-hoc analysis to analyse patterns of recurrence with 1 additional year of follow-up. The study was closed on Dec 20, 2013; follow-up is ongoing. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14387080, and ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00411138. FINDINGS: Between Nov 23, 2006, and Dec 20, 2013, 686 women were enrolled, of whom 660 were eligible and evaluable (330 in the chemoradiotherapy group, and 330 in the radiotherapy-alone group). At a median follow-up of 72·6 months (IQR 59·9-85·6), 5-year overall survival was 81·4% (95% CI 77·2-85·8) with chemoradiotherapy versus 76·1% (71·6-80·9) with radiotherapy alone (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·70 [95% CI 0·51-0·97], p=0·034), and 5-year failure-free survival was 76·5% (95% CI 71·5-80·7) versus 69·1% (63·8-73·8; HR 0·70 [0·52-0·94], p=0·016). Distant metastases were the first site of recurrence in most patients with a relapse, occurring in 78 of 330 women (5-year probability 21·4%; 95% CI 17·3-26·3) in the chemoradiotherapy group versus 98 of 330 (5-year probability 29·1%; 24·4-34·3) in the radiotherapy-alone group (HR 0·74 [95% CI 0·55-0·99]; p=0·047). Isolated vaginal recurrence was the first site of recurrence in one patient (0·3%; 95% CI 0·0-2·1) in both groups (HR 0·99 [95% CI 0·06-15·90]; p=0·99), and isolated pelvic recurrence was the first site of recurrence in three women (0·9% [95% CI 0·3-2·8]) in the chemoradiotherapy group versus four (0·9% [95% CI 0·3-2·8]) in the radiotherapy-alone group (HR 0·75 [95% CI 0·17-3·33]; p=0·71). At 5 years, only one grade 4 adverse event (ileus or obstruction) was reported (in the chemoradiotherapy group). At 5 years, reported grade 3 adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups, occurring in 16 (8%) of 201 women in the chemoradiotherapy group versus ten (5%) of 187 in the radiotherapy-alone group (p=0·24). The most common grade 3 adverse event was hypertension (in four [2%] women in both groups). At 5 years, grade 2 or worse adverse events were reported in 76 (38%) of 201 women in the chemoradiotherapy group versus 43 (23%) of 187 in the radiotherapy-alone group (p=0·002). Sensory neuropathy persisted more often after chemoradiotherapy than after radiotherapy alone, with 5-year rates of grade 2 or worse neuropathy of 6% (13 of 201 women) versus 0% (0 of 187). No treatment-related deaths were reported. INTERPRETATION: This updated analysis shows significantly improved overall survival and failure-free survival with chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone. This treatment schedule should be discussed and recommended, especially for women with stage III or serous cancers, or both, as part of shared decision making between doctors and patients. Follow-up is ongoing to evaluate long-term survival. FUNDING: Dutch Cancer Society, Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council, Project Grant, Cancer Australia Grant, Italian Medicines Agency, and the Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute.

Addition of zoledronic acid to neoadjuvant chemotherapy is not beneficial in patients with HER2-negative stage II/III breast cancer: 5-year survival analysis of the NEOZOTAC trial (BOOG 2010-01).

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant bisphosphonates are associated with improved breast cancer survival in postmenopausal patients. Addition of zoledronic acid (ZA) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy did not improve pathological complete response in the phase III NEOZOTAC trial. Here we report the results of the secondary endpoints, disease-free survival, (DFS) and overall survival (OS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with HER2-negative, stage II/III breast cancer were randomized to receive the standard 6 cycles of neoadjuvant TAC (docetaxel/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide) chemotherapy with or without 4 mg intravenous (IV) ZA administered within 24 h of chemotherapy. This was repeated every 21 days for 6 cycles. Cox regression models were used to evaluate the effect of ZA and covariates on DFS and OS. Regression models were used to examine the association between insulin, glucose, insulin growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels, and IGF-1 receptor (IGF-1R) expression with survival outcomes. RESULTS: Two hundred forty-six women were eligible for inclusion. After a median follow-up of 6.4 years, OS for all patients was significantly worse for those who received ZA (HR 0.468, 95% CI 0.226-0.967, P = 0.040). DFS was not significantly different between the treatment arms (HR 0.656, 95% CI 0.371-1.160, P = 0.147). In a subgroup analysis of postmenopausal women, no significant difference in DFS or OS was found for those who received ZA compared with the control group (HR 0.464, 95% CI 0.176-1.222, P = 0.120; HR 0.539, 95% CI 0.228-1.273, P = 0.159, respectively). The subgroup analysis of premenopausal patients was not significantly different for DFS and OS ((HR 0.798, 95% CI 0.369-1.725, P = 0.565; HR 0.456, 95% CI 0.156-1.336, P = 0.152, respectively). Baseline IGF-1R expression was not significantly associated with DFS or OS. In a predefined additional study, lower serum levels of insulin were associated with improved DFS (HR 1.025, 95% CI 1.005-1.045, P = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that ZA in combination with neoadjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a worse OS in breast cancer (both pre- and postmenopausal patients). However, in a subgroup analysis of postmenopausal patients, ZA treatment was not associated with DFS or OS. Also, DFS was not significantly different between both groups. IGF-1R expression in tumor tissue before and after neoadjuvant treatment did not predict survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01099436 , April 2010.

Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making. METHODS: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52-0.74; at 10 years, 0.53-0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62-1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73-1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52-0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.

Prognostic Impact of Breast-Conserving Therapy Versus Mastectomy of BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers Compared With Noncarriers in a Consecutive Series of Young Breast Cancer Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of different types of surgery on breast cancer prognosis in germline BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers compared with noncarriers. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Although breast-conserving therapy (breast-conserving surgery followed by radiotherapy) has been associated with more local recurrences than mastectomy, no differences in overall survival have been found in randomized trials performed in the general breast cancer population. Whether breast-conservation can be safely offered to BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is debatable. METHODS: The study comprised a cohort of women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed <50 years and treated between 1970 and 2003 in 10 Dutch centers. Germline DNA for BRCA1/2 testing of most-prevalent mutations (covering ∼61%) was mainly derived from paraffin-blocks. Survival analyses were performed taking into account competing risks. RESULTS: In noncarriers (N = 5820), as well as in BRCA1 (N = 191) and BRCA2 (N = 70) mutation carriers, approximately half of the patients received breast-conserving therapy. Patients receiving mastectomy followed by radiotherapy had prognostically worse tumor characteristics and more often received systemic therapy. After adjustment for these potential confounders, patients who received breast-conserving therapy had a similar overall survival compared with patients who received mastectomy, both in noncarriers (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, confidence interval [CI] = 0.85-1.07, P = 0.41) and BRCA1 mutation carriers (HR = 0.80, CI = 0.42-1.51, P = 0.50). Numbers for BRCA2 were insufficient to draw conclusions. The rate of local recurrences after breast-conserving therapy did not differ between BRCA1 carriers (10-year risk = 7.3%) and noncarriers (10-year risk = 7.9%). CONCLUSION: Our results, together with the available literature, provide reassurance that breast-conserving therapy is a safe local treatment option to offer to BRCA1 mutation carriers with invasive breast cancer.

Reproducibility of lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) assessment in endometrial cancer.

AIMS: Lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI) in endometrial cancer (EC) is an important prognostic variable impacting on a patient's individual recurrence risk and adjuvant treatment recommendations. Recent work has shown that grading the extent of LVSI further improves its prognostic strength in patients with stage I endometrioid EC. Despite this, there is little information on the reproducibility of LVSI assessment in EC. Therefore, we designed a study to evaluate interobserver agreement in discriminating true LVSI from LVSI mimics (Phase I) and reproducibility of grading extent of LVSI (Phase II). METHODS AND RESULTS: Scanned haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) slides of endometrioid EC (EEC) with a predefined possible LVSI focus were hosted on a website and assessed by a panel of six European gynaecological pathologists. In Phase I, 48 H&E slides were included for LVSI assessment and in Phase II, 42 H&E slides for LVSI grading. Each observer was instructed to apply the criteria for LVSI used in daily practice. The degree of agreement was measured using the two-way absolute agreement average-measures intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Reproducibility of LVSI assessment (ICC = 0.64, P < 0.001) and LVSI grading (ICC = 0.62, P < 0.001) in EEC was substantial among the observers. CONCLUSIONS: Given the good reproducibility of LVSI, this study further supports the important role of LVSI in decision algorithms for adjuvant treatment.

Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone for women with high-risk endometrial cancer (PORTEC-3): final results of an international, open-label, multicentre, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Although women with endometrial cancer generally have a favourable prognosis, those with high-risk disease features are at increased risk of recurrence. The PORTEC-3 trial was initiated to investigate the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy during and after radiotherapy (chemoradiotherapy) versus pelvic radiotherapy alone for women with high-risk endometrial cancer. METHODS: PORTEC-3 was an open-label, international, randomised, phase 3 trial involving 103 centres in six clinical trials collaborating in the Gynaecological Cancer Intergroup. Eligible women had high-risk endometrial cancer with FIGO 2009 stage I, endometrioid-type grade 3 with deep myometrial invasion or lymph-vascular space invasion (or both), endometrioid-type stage II or III, or stage I to III with serous or clear cell histology. Women were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone (48·6 Gy in 1·8 Gy fractions given on 5 days per week) or radiotherapy and chemotherapy (consisting of two cycles of cisplatin 50 mg/m2 given during radiotherapy, followed by four cycles of carboplatin AUC5 and paclitaxel 175 mg/m2) using a biased-coin minimisation procedure with stratification for participating centre, lymphadenectomy, stage of cancer, and histological type. The co-primary endpoints were overall survival and failure-free survival. We used the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis for final analysis by intention to treat and adjusted for stratification factors. The study was closed on Dec 20, 2013, after achieving complete accrual; follow-up is ongoing. PORTEC-3 is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14387080, and ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00411138. RESULTS: 686 women were enrolled between Nov 23, 2006, and Dec 20, 2013. 660 eligible patients were included in the final analysis, of whom 330 were assigned to chemoradiotherapy and 330 were assigned to radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 60·2 months (IQR 48·1-73·1). 5-year overall survival was 81·8% (95% CI 77·5-86·2) with chemoradiotherapy versus 76·7% (72·1-81·6) with radiotherapy (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·54-1·06; p=0·11); 5-year failure-free survival was 75·5% (95% CI 70·3-79·9) versus 68·6% (63·1-73·4; HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·53-0·95; p=0·022). Grade 3 or worse adverse events during treatment occurred in 198 (60%) of 330 who received chemoradiotherapy versus 41 (12%) of 330 patients who received radiotherapy (p<0·0001). Neuropathy (grade 2 or worse) persisted significantly more often after chemoradiotherapy than after radiotherapy (20 [8%] women vs one [1%] at 3 years; p<0·0001). Most deaths were due to endometrial cancer; in four patients (two in each group), the cause of death was uncertain. One death in the radiotherapy group was due to either disease progression or late treatment complications; three deaths (two in the chemoradiotherapy group and one in the radiotherapy group) were due to either intercurrent disease or late treatment-related toxicity. INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant chemotherapy given during and after radiotherapy for high-risk endometrial cancer did not improve 5-year overall survival, although it did increase failure-free survival. Women with high-risk endometrial cancer should be individually counselled about this combined treatment. Continued follow-up is needed to evaluate long-term survival. FUNDING: Dutch Cancer Society, Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council Project Grant and Cancer Australia, L'Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco, and Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute.

Exploration of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes as a predictive biomarker for adjuvant endocrine therapy in early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) have been shown to be prognostic for disease-free survival and predictive for the benefit of chemotherapy in patients with early breast cancer, but have not been studied for endocrine therapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The number of CD8-positive TILs was assessed in a subcohort of 236 patients in the Intergroup Exemestane Study. AQ After 2-3 years of adjuvant tamoxifen, AQpatients were randomized between the schemes of continuation for 5 years on tamoxifen and switching to exemestane. The numbers of CD8-positive TILs were analysed for correlations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). A similar analysis was performed on 2596 patients in the TEAM trial who were randomized between the sequential scheme and the exemestane monotherapy. RESULTS: In the first cohort, patients with low (below median) numbers of CD8-positive TILs had a univariate hazard ratio (HR) for DFS of 0.27 (95% CI 0.13-0.55) in favour of treatment with exemestane, whereas this benefit was not observed in patients with high numbers of CD8-positive TILs (HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.71-2.50, HR for interaction 5.02, p = 0.001). In the second cohort, patients with low numbers of CD8-positive TILs showed a benefit of exemestane treatment on recurrence-free survival (RFS HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45-0.99), and not with above-median numbers of CD8-positive TILs (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59-1.26, HR for interaction 1.29, p = 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to propose the number of CD8-positive TILs as potential predictive markers for endocrine therapy, with the low presence of CD8-positive TILs associated to benefit for exemestane-inclusive therapy. However, treatment-by-marker interactions were only significant in one cohort, indicating the need for further validation.

Blinded histopathological characterisation of POLE exonuclease domain-mutant endometrial cancers: sheep in wolf's clothing.

AIMS: POLE exonuclease domain mutations identify a subset of endometrial cancer (EC) patients with an excellent prognosis. The use of this biomarker has been suggested to refine adjuvant treatment decisions, but the necessary sequencing is not widely performed and is relatively expensive. Therefore, we aimed to identify histopathological and immunohistochemical characteristics to aid in the detection of POLE-mutant ECs. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifty-one POLE-mutant endometrioid, 67 POLE-wild-type endometrioid and 15 POLE-wild-type serous ECs were included (total N = 133). An expert gynaecopathologist, blinded to molecular features, evaluated each case (two or more slides) for 16 morphological characteristics. Immunohistochemistry was performed for p53, p16, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2. POLE-mutant ECs were characterised by a prominent immune infiltrate: 80% showed peritumoral lymphocytes and 59% showed tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes, as compared with 43% and 28% of POLE-wild-type endometrioid ECs, and 27% and 13% of their serous counterparts (P < 0.01, all comparisons). Of POLE-mutant ECs, 33% contained tumour giant cells; this proportion was significantly higher than that in POLE-wild-type endometrioid ECs (10%; P = 0.003), but not significantly different from that in serous ECs (53%). Serous-like features were as often (focally) present in POLE-mutant as in POLE-wild-type endometrioid ECs (6-24%, depending on the feature). The majority of POLE-mutant ECs showed wild-type p53 (86%), negative/focal p16 (82%) and normal mismatch repair protein expression (90%). CONCLUSIONS: A simple combination of morphological and immunohistochemical characteristics (tumour type, grade, peritumoral lymphocytes, MLH1, and p53 expression) can assist in prescreening for POLE exonuclease domain mutations in EC, increasing the probability of a mutation being detected from 7% to 33%. This facilitates the use of this important prognostic biomarker in routine pathology.

The prognostic value of the tumour-stroma ratio in primary operable invasive cancer of the breast: a validation study.

PURPOSE: The primary aim of the current study is to validate the prognostic relevance of the relative amount of tumour-associated stroma, the tumour-stroma ratio, in a large cohort of primary operable breast cancer patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed on women diagnosed and treated for primarily operable invasive breast cancer in the period from 1 January 1990 till 31 December 1999. Tumour-stroma ratio was estimated by microscopic evaluation of haematoxylin and eosin tumour slides. Two independent observers (k = 0.68) performed tumour-stroma ratio evaluation in a significant part of the cohort. The prognostic potential with respect to overall, recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of n = 737 women were evaluated. Median follow-up time was 11.5 years. High stromal content was an independent prognosticator for worse overall (hazard ratio 1.56, p = 0.002, 95% confidence interval 1.18-2.05), distant metastasis-free (hazard ratio 1.52, p = 0.008, 95% confidence interval 1.12-2.06) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 1.35, p = 0.046, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.81). In subgroups of hormone receptor-positive and lymph node-negative cases, high stromal content was also an independent prognosticator for worse outcome. CONCLUSION: Tumour-stroma ratio is an independent risk factor for worse overall, distant metastasis-free and recurrence-free survival in primarily operable breast cancer. However, detailed prospective studies with respect to tumour-stroma ratio are necessary to gain more insight in its prognostic potential in clinical practice.

Morphological and phenotypical features of ovarian metastases in breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Autotransplantation of frozen-thawed ovarian tissue is a method to preserve ovarian function and fertility in patients undergoing gonadotoxic therapy. In oncology patients, the safety cannot yet be guaranteed, since current tumor detection methods can only exclude the presence of malignant cells in ovarian fragments that are not transplanted. We determined the need for a novel detection method by studying the distribution of tumor cells in ovaries from patients with breast cancer. Furthermore, we examined which cell-surface proteins are suitable as a target for non-invasive tumor-specific imaging of ovarian metastases from invasive breast cancer. METHODS: Using the nationwide database of the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA), we identified a cohort of 46 women with primary invasive breast cancer and ovarian metastases. The localization and morphology of ovarian metastases were determined on hematoxylin-and-eosin-stained sections. The following cell-surface markers were immunohistochemically analyzed: E-cadherin, epithelial membrane antigen (EMA), human epidermal growth receptor type 2 (Her2/neu), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), αvß6 integrin and epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM). RESULTS: The majority of ovarian metastases (71%) consisted of a solitary metastasis or multiple distinct nodules separated by uninvolved ovarian tissue, suggesting that ovarian metastases might be overlooked by the current detection approach. Combining the targets E-cadherin, EMA and Her2/neu resulted in nearly 100% detection of ductal ovarian metastases, whereas the combination of EMA, Her2/neu and EpCAM was most suitable to detect lobular ovarian metastases. CONCLUSIONS: Examination of the actual ovarian transplants is recommended. A combination of targets is most appropriate to detect ovarian metastases by tumor-specific imaging.