A self-controlled case series study to measure the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with attendance at sporting and cultural events: the UK Events Research Programme events.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, whilst societies were emerging from major social restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK government instigated an Events Research Programme to examine the risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at cultural events and explore ways to enable people to attend a range of events whilst minimising risk of transmission. We aimed to measure any impact on risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at events held at or close to commercially viable capacity using routinely collected data. METHODS: Data were obtained on attendees at Phase 3 Events Research Programme events, for which some infection risk mitigation measures were in place (i.e. evidence of vaccination or a negative lateral flow test). Attendance data were linked with COVID-19 test result data from the UK Test and Trace system. Using a self-controlled case series design, we measured the within person incidence rate ratio for testing positive for COVID-19, comparing the rate in days 3 to 9 following event attendance (high risk period) with days 1 and 2 and 10-16 (baseline period). Rate ratios were adjusted for estimates of underlying regional COVID-19 prevalence to account for population level fluctuations in infection risk, and events were grouped into broadly similar types. RESULTS: From attendance data available for 188,851 attendees, 3357 people tested positive for COVID-19 during the observation period. After accounting for total testing trends over the period, incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for positive tests were 1.16 (0.53-2.57) for indoor seated events, 1.12 (0.95-1.30) for mainly outdoor seated events, 0.65 (0.51-0.83) for mainly outdoor partially seated events, and 1.70 (1.52-1.89) for mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. CONCLUSIONS: For the majority of event types studied in the third phase of the UK Events Research Programme, we found no evidence of an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission associated with event attendance. However, we found a 70% increased risk of infection associated with attendance at mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. We have also demonstrated a novel use for self-controlled case series methodology in monitoring infection risk associated with event attendance.

Public health impact of mass sporting and cultural events in a rising COVID-19 prevalence in England.

A subset of events within the UK Government Events Research Programme (ERP), developed to examine the risk of transmission of COVID-19 from attendance at events, was examined to explore the public health impact of holding mass sporting events. We used contact tracing data routinely collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires, to describe the potential public health impact of the large sporting and cultural events on potential transmission and incidence of COVID-19. Data from the EURO 2020 matches hosted at Wembley identified very high numbers of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and were traced through NHS Test & Trace. This included both individuals who were potentially infectious (3036) and those who acquired their infection during the time of the Final (6376). This is in contrast with the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, where there were similar number of spectators and venue capacity but there were lower total numbers of potentially infectious cases (299) and potentially acquired cases (582). While the infections associated with the EURO 2020 event may be attributed to a set of socio-cultural circumstances which are unlikely to be replicated for the forthcoming sporting season, other aspects may be important to consider including mitigations for spectators to consider such as face coverings when travelling to and from events, minimising crowding in poorly ventilated indoor spaces such as bars and pubs where people may congregate to watch events, and reducing the risk of aerosol exposure through requesting that individuals avoid shouting and chanting in large groups in enclosed spaces.

A preliminary assessment of the ForenSeq™ FGx System: next generation sequencing of an STR and SNP multiplex.

The ForenSeq™ FGx System (Illumina, San Diego, CA) was initially evaluated in concordance with SWGDAM guidelines for internal validation to determine the quality of the system's components: the ForenSeq™ DNA Signature Prep Kit reagents, the MiSeq FGx™ instrument, and the ForenSeq™ Universal Analysis Software, for the analysis of targeted, forensically informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and short tandem repeats (STRs). This multiplex consisted of STRs (autosomal, X, and Y) and SNPs (identity, ancestry, and phenotypic) that were run using one preparation process. Overall, the ForenSeq™ FGx System performed as well as the traditional capillary electrophoresis-based method in producing usable profile information, along with additional information that could aid in investigative leads. The MiSeq FGx™ System was validated using DNA samples in studies testing reproducibility, repeatability, concordance, sensitivity, and mock case single donor samples. Overall, genotyping results for STRs and SNPs were concordant with the profiles generated from conventional STR analysis using Identifiler and SNPs typed by 23andMe analysis. Genotypes of the ForenSeq™ aSNPs were used to evaluate biogeographical ancestry estimations using ForenSeq™ Universal Analysis Software, FROG-kb database (KIDD aiSNP 55 panel), and 23andMe. The system was shown to provide reproducible genotypes and reliable results were obtained at levels as low as 50 pg. All mock case samples were concordant with the donor profile. The results support consideration of the ForenSeq™ FGx System as an acceptable alternative to current STR and SNP analysis, pending formal developmental and internal validation studies.

Predictors of the placebo response in a nutraceutical randomized controlled trial for depression.

OBJECTIVE: The placebo response in depression studies is the change in symptoms amongst those who receive an inactive treatment. Many well-designed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of depression have a high proportion of placebo responders, with little understanding as to why. The present study assesses characteristics associated with the placebo response in a nutraceutical trial with a large proportion of placebo responders. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a nutraceutical depression RCT which identified no overall treatment benefit relative to placebo (n = 69 in placebo group). We investigated participant characteristics such as socio-demographics, clinical features, and recruitment methods, and their association with the placebo response. Monoaminergic genetic polymorphisms were also assessed. Placebo response was measured based on change in Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score. The association of these hypothesis-driven variables of interest and the placebo response was examined using linear mixed effects models. RESULTS: Greater levels of education, particularly pursuing post-high school education, better self-reported general health, marriage/de facto, greater improvement in the first trial week, and more failed antidepressant therapies in the current depressive episode were associated with greater placebo response. An increased placebo response was not found in those recruited via social media nor in those with concomitant antidepressant therapy. Single nucleotide polymorphisms from the tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (TPH1) gene (A779C and A218C) were weakly associated with greater placebo response, although the evidence was attenuated after accounting for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSION: This is, to our knowledge, the first study within nutraceutical research for depression to assess the association between participant characteristics and variation in the placebo response. Several variables appeared to predict the placebo response. Such findings may encourage future trial designs which could dampen placebo response, improve assay sensitivity, and allow for treatment effects to be potentially more detectable. Please cite this article as: Arnold R, Murphy-Smith J, Ng CH, Mischoulon D, Byrne GJ, Bousman CA, Stough C, Berk M, Sarris J. Predictors of the placebo response in a nutraceutical randomized controlled trial for depression. J Integr Med. 2024; 22(1): 46-53.

PEG conjugates of potent α4 integrin inhibitors, maintaining sustained levels and bioactivity in vivo, following subcutaneous administration.

Mitsunobu reactions were employed to link t-butyl esters of α4 integrin inhibitors at each of the termini of a three-arm, 40 kDa, branched PEG. Cleavage of the t-butyl esters using HCO2H provided easily isolated PEG derivatives, which are potent α4 integrin inhibitors, and which achieve sustained levels and bioactivity in vivo, following subcutaneous administration to rats.

Orally available and efficacious α4ß1/α4ß7 integrin inhibitors.

A series of potent α4ß1/α4ß7 integrin inhibitors is reported, including an inhibitor 12d with remarkable oral exposure and efficacy in rat models of rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease.

Discovery of a novel sulfonamide-pyrazolopiperidine series as potent and efficacious gamma-secretase inhibitors.

Discovery of a series of pyrazolopiperidine sulfonamide based gamma-secretase inhibitors and its SAR evolution is described. Significant increases in APP potency on the pyrazolopiperidine scaffold over the original N-bicyclic sulfonamide scaffold were achieved and this potency increase translated in an improved in vivo efficacy.

Discovery of a novel sulfonamide-pyrazolopiperidine series as potent and efficacious gamma-secretase inhibitors (Part II).

Significant improvement in metabolic stability on the pyrazolopiperidine scaffold over the original series were achieved and this stability improvement translated in an improved in vivo efficacy.

Early Outcomes From the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme.

OBJECTIVE: To assess weight and HbA1c changes in the Healthier You: National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP), the largest DPP globally to achieve universal population coverage. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A service evaluation assessed intervention effectiveness for adults with nondiabetic hyperglycemia (HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol [6.0-6.4%] or fasting plasma glucose 5.5-6.9 mmol/L) between program launch in June 2016 and December 2018, using prospectively collected, national service-level data in England. RESULTS: By December 2018, 324,699 people had been referred, 152,294 had attended the initial assessment, and 96,442 had attended at least 1 of 13 group-based intervention sessions. Allowing sufficient time to elapse, 53% attended an initial assessment, 36% attended at least one group-based session, and 19% completed the intervention (attended >60% of sessions). Of the 32,665 who attended at least one intervention session and had sufficient time to finish, 17,252 (53%) completed: intention-to-treat analyses demonstrated a mean weight loss of 2.3 kg (95% CI 2.2, 2.3) and an HbA1c reduction of 1.26 mmol/mol (1.20, 1.31) (0.12% [0.11, 0.12]); completer analysis demonstrated a mean weight loss of 3.3 kg (3.2, 3.4) and an HbA1c reduction of 2.04 mmol/mol (1.96, 2.12) (0.19% [0.18, 0.19]). Younger age, female sex, Asian and black ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and normal baseline BMI were associated with less weight loss. Older age, female sex, black ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and baseline overweight and obesity were associated with a smaller HbA1c reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in weight and HbA1c compare favorably with those reported in recent meta-analyses of pragmatic studies and suggest likely future reductions in participant type 2 diabetes incidence.

Experience of point-of-care HbA1c testing in the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme: an observational study.

INTRODUCTION: To report the observations of point-of-care (POC) glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) testing in people with non-diabetic hyperglycemia (NDH; HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%)), applied in community settings, within the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A service evaluation assessing prospectively collected national service-level data from the NHS DPP, using data from the first referral received in June 2016-October 2018. Individuals were referred to the NHS DPP with a laboratory-measured HbA1c in the NDH range and had a repeat HbA1c measured at first attendance of the program using one of three POC devices: DCA Vantage, Afinion or A1C Now+. Differences between the referral and POC HbA1c and the SD of the POC HbA1c were calculated. The factors associated with the difference in HbA1c and the association between POC HbA1c result and subsequent attendance of the NHS DPP were also evaluated. RESULTS: Data from 73 703 participants demonstrated a significant mean difference between the referral and POC HbA1c of -2.48 mmol/mol (-0.23%) (t=157, p<0.001) with significant differences in the mean difference between devices (F(2, 73 700)=738, p<0.001). The SD of POC HbA1c was 4.46 mmol/mol (0.41%) with significant differences in SDs between devices (F(2, 73 700)=1542, p<0.001). Participants who were older, from more deprived areas and from Asian, black and mixed ethnic groups were associated with smaller HbA1c differences. Normoglycemic POC HbA1c versus NDH POC HbA1c values were associated with lower subsequent attendance at behavioral interventions (58% vs 67%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: POC HbA1c testing in community settings was associated with significantly lower HbA1c values when compared with laboratory-measured referrals. Acknowledging effects of regression to the mean, we found that these differences were also associated with POC method, location, individual patient factors and time between measurements. Compared with POC HbA1c values in the NDH range, normoglycemic POC HbA1c values were associated with lower subsequent intervention attendance.

STAR--people-powered prioritization: a 21st-century solution to allocation headaches.

The aim of cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) is to inform the allocation of scarce resources. CEA is routinely used in assessing the cost-effectiveness of specific health technologies by agencies such as the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in England and Wales. But there is extensive evidence that because of barriers of accessibility and acceptability, CEA has not been used by local health planners in their annual task of allocating fixed budgets to a wide range of types of health care. This paper argues that these planners can use Socio Technical Allocation of Resources (STAR) for that task. STAR builds on the principles of CEA and the practice of program budgeting and marginal analysis. STAR uses requisite models to assess the cost-effectiveness of all interventions considered for resource reallocation by explicitly applying the theory of health economics to evidence of scale, costs, and benefits, with deliberation facilitated through an interactive social process of engaging key stakeholders. In that social process, the stakeholders generate missing estimates of scale, costs, and benefits of the interventions; develop visual models of their relative cost-effectiveness; and interpret the results. We demonstrate the feasibility of STAR by showing how it was used by a local health planning agency of the English National Health Service, the Isle of Wight Primary Care Trust, to allocate a fixed budget in 2008 and 2009.

Increasing seasonal influenza vaccination uptake using community pharmacies: experience from the Isle of Wight, England.

OBJECTIVE: Influenza vaccination rates achieved by general medical practice on the Isle of Wight, England, have been consistently lower than regional and national averages despite practices pursuing an active programme of patient engagement. The objective of this work was to determine whether inclusion of community pharmacies in an influenza vaccination programme improves vaccination rates and is acceptable to patients. METHODS: The Isle of Wight Primary Care Trust commissioned a community pharmacy seasonal influenza vaccination service to augment that offered by general medical practice. Vaccination rates were monitored as well as determining patient perception of a pharmacy-based service by self-administered survey. KEY FINDINGS: Eighteen community pharmacies vaccinated 2837 patients and accounted for 9.7% of all patients vaccinated on the island. The pharmacy service contributed to improved patient vaccination rates in both the over- and under-65 age groups and increased the number of patients receiving a vaccination for the first time. Pharmacies vaccinated proportionately more carers and frontline healthcare workers than medical practices. Patient satisfaction with the pharmacy-based service was high, with access seen as a major advantage over general medical practice. The pharmacy-based service also vaccinated patients that ordinarily would not have accessed medical services. CONCLUSIONS: Involvement of community pharmacies in the seasonal influenza vaccination programme can help increase vaccination rates and is associated with high levels of patient acceptability.

Discovery of (R)-4-cyclopropyl-7,8-difluoro-5-(4-(trifluoromethyl)phenylsulfonyl)-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazolo[4,3-c]quinoline (ELND006) and (R)-4-cyclopropyl-8-fluoro-5-(6-(trifluoromethyl)pyridin-3-ylsulfonyl)-4,5-dihydro-2H-pyrazolo[4,3-c]quinoline (ELND007): metabolically stable γ-secretase Inhibitors that selectively inhibit the production of amyloid-ß over Notch.

Herein, we describe our strategy to design metabolically stable γ-secretase inhibitors which are selective for inhibition of Aß generation over Notch. We highlight our synthetic strategy to incorporate diversity and chirality. Compounds 30 (ELND006) and 34 (ELND007) both entered human clinical trials. The in vitro and in vivo characteristics for these two compounds are described. A comparison of inhibition of Aß generation in vivo between 30, 34, Semagacestat 41, Begacestat 42, and Avagacestat 43 in mice is made. 30 lowered Aß in the CSF of healthy human volunteers.

Amyloid precursor protein selective gamma-secretase inhibitors for treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Inhibition of gamma-secretase presents a direct target for lowering Aß production in the brain as a therapy for Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, gamma-secretase is known to process multiple substrates in addition to amyloid precursor protein (APP), most notably Notch, which has limited clinical development of inhibitors targeting this enzyme. It has been postulated that APP substrate selective inhibitors of gamma-secretase would be preferable to non-selective inhibitors from a safety perspective for AD therapy. METHODS: In vitro assays monitoring inhibitor potencies at APP γ-site cleavage (equivalent to Aß40), and Notch ε-site cleavage, in conjunction with a single cell assay to simultaneously monitor selectivity for inhibition of Aß production vs. Notch signaling were developed to discover APP selective gamma-secretase inhibitors. In vivo efficacy for acute reduction of brain Aß was determined in the PDAPP transgene model of AD, as well as in wild-type FVB strain mice. In vivo selectivity was determined following seven days x twice per day (b.i.d.) treatment with 15 mg/kg/dose to 1,000 mg/kg/dose ELN475516, and monitoring brain Aß reduction vs. Notch signaling endpoints in periphery. RESULTS: The APP selective gamma-secretase inhibitors ELN318463 and ELN475516 reported here behave as classic gamma-secretase inhibitors, demonstrate 75- to 120-fold selectivity for inhibiting Aß production compared with Notch signaling in cells, and displace an active site directed inhibitor at very high concentrations only in the presence of substrate. ELN318463 demonstrated discordant efficacy for reduction of brain Aß in the PDAPP compared with wild-type FVB, not observed with ELN475516. Improved in vivo safety of ELN475516 was demonstrated in the 7d repeat dose study in wild-type mice, where a 33% reduction of brain Aß was observed in mice terminated three hours post last dose at the lowest dose of inhibitor tested. No overt in-life or post-mortem indications of systemic toxicity, nor RNA and histological end-points indicative of toxicity attributable to inhibition of Notch signaling were observed at any dose tested. CONCLUSIONS: The discordant in vivo activity of ELN318463 suggests that the potency of gamma-secretase inhibitors in AD transgenic mice should be corroborated in wild-type mice. The discovery of ELN475516 demonstrates that it is possible to develop APP selective gamma-secretase inhibitors with potential for treatment for AD.

Requisite models for strategic commissioning: the example of type 1 diabetes.

A developing emphasis of health care reforms has been creating organisations with responsibilities for strategic commissioning of services for defined populations. Such organisations must set priorities in aiming to meet their populations' needs subject to a budget constraint. This requires estimates of the health benefits and costs of different interventions for their populations. This paper outlines a framework that does this and shows how this requires modelling to produce estimates in a way that is transparent to commissioners, of requisite complexity to produce sound estimates for priority setting using routinely available data. The example illustrated in this paper is an intervention that would improve glucose control in the English population with type 1 diabetes. It takes many years for a change in glucose management to deliver maximum benefits; hence the intervention is not good value-for-money in the short run. We aim to give a more strategic view of the costs and benefits modelling costs and benefits in a steady-state model which suggests that the intervention is good value-for-money in the long run.

Public health. Building microbial forensics as a response to bioterrorism.

Combating bioterrorism is a challenge to all of us. To be proactive, the U.S. Government has formalized the discipline of "microbial forensics" to deter and attribute perpetrators of such acts. This Policy Forum describes the foundations of the microbial forensics program: the creation of a national bioforensics laboratory, a partnership laboratory network, and a peer-consensus scientific working group and the promulgation of quality assurance guidelines.