Finale: impact of the ORCHESTRA/ENCORE programmes on Southern Ocean heat and carbon understanding.

The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air-sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Increasing picocyanobacteria success in shelf waters contributes to long-term food web degradation.

Continental margins are disproportionally important for global primary production, fisheries and CO2 uptake. However, across the Northeast Atlantic shelves, there has been an ongoing summertime decline of key biota-large diatoms, dinoflagellates and copepods-that traditionally fuel higher tropic levels such as fish, sea birds and marine mammals. Here, we combine multiple time series with in situ process studies to link these declines to summer nutrient stress and increasing proportions of picophytoplankton that can comprise up to 90% of the combined pico- and nanophytoplankton biomass in coastal areas. Among the pico-fraction, it is the cyanobacterium Synechococcus that flourishes when iron and nitrogen resupply to surface waters are diminished. Our field data show how traits beyond small size give Synechococcus a competitive edge over pico- and nanoeukaryotes. Key is their ability to grow at low irradiances near the nutricline, which is aided by their superior light-harvesting system and high affinity to iron. However, minute size and lack of essential biomolecules (e.g. omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and sterols) render Synechococcus poor primary producers to sustain shelf sea food webs efficiently. The combination of earlier spring blooms and lower summer food quantity and quality creates an increasing period of suboptimal feeding conditions for zooplankton at a time of year when their metabolic demand is highest. We suggest that this nutrition-related mismatch has contributed to the widespread, ~50% decline in summer copepod abundance we observe over the last 60 years. With Synechococcus clades being prominent from the tropics to the Arctic and their abundances increasing worldwide, our study informs projections of future food web dynamics in coastal and shelf areas where droughts and stratification lead to increasing nutrient starvation of surface waters.

Distribution of mycosporine-like amino acids along a surface water meridional transect of the Atlantic.

The composition and abundance of mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) were investigated in the surface waters along a 13,000-km meridional transect (52° N to 45° S) in the Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic Meridional Transect programme: Cruise AMT 18: 4/10/2008-10/11/2008). MAAs were ubiquitous along the transect, although the composition of the MAAs was variable. Highest concentrations were in the far south (below 40° S; MAA >1 µg L(-1)) and in north subtropical equatorial region (NER: 0-25° N; MAA up to 0.8 µg L(-1)). Highest MAA relative to chlorophyll-a occurred in the NER (MAA/chl-a ratio between 2 and 5). MAA/chl-a significantly correlated with the preceding month's mean daily UV dose and with UV-B/UV-A. In the far south, high MAA concentrations coincided with high phytoplankton biomass, high nutrients and a deep mixed layer associated with the austral spring. Here, the phytoplankton community was dominated by micro- and nano-eukaryotes. At the NER, the high MAA/chl-a coincided with low nutrient concentrations, a shallow mixed layer depth (20-70 m) and to a lesser extent to a shallow nitracline (40-90 m). Here, the phytoplankton consisted primarily of picophytoplankton (0-0.2 µm), dominated by the pico-cyanobacteria Synechococcus sp. and Prochlorococcus sp. and by the nitrogen fixing filamentous cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. The low nitrate concentrations (<0.1 µmol L(-1)) at the NER suggest that nitrogen fixation was required for MAA production. Specific MAAs could not easily be assigned to particular groups of phytoplankton and we could not rule out the possibility that MAAs were associated with symbiotic cyanobacteria contained within heterotrophic dinoflagellates or diatoms.

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll-a based models.

We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed-layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite-derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low-productivity seasons as well as in sea ice-covered/deep-water regions. Depth-resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption-based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic-relevant parameters.

Ocean net heat flux influences seasonal to interannual patterns of plankton abundance.

Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = -0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.