Strong and recurring seasonality revealed within stream diatom assemblages.

Improving stream water quality in agricultural landscapes is an ecological priority and a legislative duty for many governments. Ecosystem health can be effectively characterised by organisms sensitive to water quality changes such as diatoms, single-celled algae that are a ubiquitous component of stream benthos. Diatoms respond within daily timescales to variables including light, temperature, nutrient availability and flow conditions that result from weather and land use characteristics. However, little consideration has been given to the ecological dynamics of diatoms through repeated seasonal cycles when assessing trajectories of stream function, even in catchments actively managed to reduce human pressures. Here, six years of monthly diatom samples from three independent streams, each receiving differing levels of diffuse agricultural pollution, reveal robust and repeated seasonal variation. Predicted seasonal changes in climate-related variables and anticipated ecological impacts must be fully captured in future ecological and water quality assessments, if the apparent resistance of stream ecosystems to pollution mitigation measures is to be better understood.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

High frequency variability of environmental drivers determining benthic community dynamics in headwater streams.

Headwater streams are an important feature of the landscape, with their diversity in structure and associated ecological function providing a potential natural buffer against downstream nutrient export. Phytobenthic communities, dominated in many headwaters by diatoms, must respond to physical and chemical parameters that can vary in magnitude within hours, whereas the ecological regeneration times are much longer. How diatom communities develop in the fluctuating, dynamic environments characteristic of headwaters is poorly understood. Deployment of near-continuous monitoring technology in sub-catchments of the River Eden, NW England, provides the opportunity for measurement of temporal variability in stream discharge and nutrient resource supply to benthic communities, as represented by monthly diatom samples collected over two years. Our data suggest that the diatom communities and the derived Trophic Diatom Index, best reflect stream discharge conditions over the preceding 18-21 days and Total Phosphorus concentrations over a wider antecedent window of 7-21 days. This is one of the first quantitative assessments of long-term diatom community development in response to continuously-measured stream nutrient concentration and discharge fluctuations. The data reveal the sensitivity of these headwater communities to mean conditions prior to sampling, with flow as the dominant variable. With sufficient understanding of the role of antecedent conditions, these methods can be used to inform interpretation of monitoring data, including those collected under the European Water Framework Directive and related mitigation efforts.