Heterogeneity in national U.S. mortality trends within heart disease subgroups, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: The long-term downward national U.S. trend in heart disease-related mortality slowed substantially during 2011-2014 before turning upward in 2015. Examining mortality trends in the major subgroups of heart disease may provide insight into potentially more targeted and effective prevention and treatment approaches to promote favorable trajectories. We examined national trends between 2000 and 2015 in mortality attributed to major heart disease subgroups including ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and all other types of heart disease. METHODS: Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) data system, we determined national trends in age-standardized mortality rates attributed to ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and other heart diseases from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2011, and from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2015. Annual rate of changes in mortality attributed to ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and other heart diseases for 2000-2011 and 2011-2015 were compared. RESULTS: Death attributed to ischemic heart disease declined from 2000 to 2015, but the rate of decline slowed from 4.96% (95% confidence interval 4.77%-5.15%) for 2000-2011 to 2.66% (2.00%-3.31%) for 2011-2015. In contrast, death attributed to heart failure and all other causes of heart disease declined from 2000 to 2011 at annual rates of 1.94% (1.77%-2.11%) and 0.64% (0.44%-0.82%) respectively, but increased from 2011 to 2015 at annual rates of 3.73% (3.21% 4.26%) and 1.89% (1.33-2.46%). Differences in 2000-2011 and 2011-2015 decline rates were statistically significant for all 3 endpoints overall, by sex, and all race/ethnicity groups except Asian/Pacific Islanders (heart failure only significant) and American Indian/Alaskan Natives. CONCLUSIONS: While the long-term decline in death attributed to heart disease slowed between 2011 and 2014 nationally before turning upward in 2015, heterogeneity existed in the trajectories attributed to heart disease subgroups, with ischemic heart disease mortality continuing to decline while death attributed to heart failure and other heart diseases switched from a downward to upward trend. While systematic efforts to prevent and treat ischemic heart disease continue to be effective, urgent attention is needed to address the challenge of heart failure.

Population trends in the incidence and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have characterized recent population trends in the incidence and outcomes of myocardial infarction. METHODS: We identified patients 30 years of age or older in a large, diverse, community-based population who were hospitalized for incident myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2008. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for myocardial infarction overall and separately for ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Patient characteristics, outpatient medications, and cardiac biomarker levels during hospitalization were identified from health plan databases, and 30-day mortality was ascertained from administrative databases, state death data, and Social Security Administration files. RESULTS: We identified 46,086 hospitalizations for myocardial infarctions during 18,691,131 person-years of follow-up from 1999 to 2008. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of myocardial infarction increased from 274 cases per 100,000 person-years in 1999 to 287 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2000, and it decreased each year thereafter, to 208 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2008, representing a 24% relative decrease over the study period. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction decreased throughout the study period (from 133 cases per 100,000 person-years in 1999 to 50 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2008, P<0.001 for linear trend). Thirty-day mortality was significantly lower in 2008 than in 1999 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Within a large community-based population, the incidence of myocardial infarction decreased significantly after 2000, and the incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction decreased markedly after 1999. Reductions in short-term case fatality rates for myocardial infarction appear to be driven, in part, by a decrease in the incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and a lower rate of death after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Statin use during ischemic stroke hospitalization is strongly associated with improved poststroke survival.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statins reduce infarct size in animal models of stroke and have been hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes after ischemic stroke. We examined the relationship between statin use before and during stroke hospitalization and poststroke survival. METHODS: We analyzed records from 12 689 patients admitted with ischemic stroke to any of 17 hospitals in a large integrated healthcare delivery system between January 2000 and December 2007. We used multivariable survival analysis and grouped-treatment analysis, an instrumental variable method that uses treatment differences between facilities to avoid individual patient-level confounding. RESULTS: Statin use before ischemic stroke hospitalization was associated with improved survival (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.93; P<0.001), and use before and during hospitalization was associated with better rates of survival (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.53-0.65; P<0.001). Patients taking a statin before their stroke who underwent statin withdrawal in the hospital had a substantially greater risk of death (hazard ratio, 2.5; 95% CI, 2.1-2.9; P<0.001). The benefit was greater for high-dose (>60 mg/day) statin use (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.34-0.53; P<0.001) than for lower dose (<60 mg/day) statin use (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.54-0.67; P<0.001; test for trend P<0.001), and earlier treatment in-hospital further improved survival. Grouped-treatment analysis showed that the association between statin use and survival cannot be explained by patient-level confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use early in stroke hospitalization is strongly associated with improved poststroke survival, and statin withdrawal in the hospital, even for a brief period, is associated with worsened survival.

Cardiovascular predictors of long-term outcomes after non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cardiac injury is common after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and is associated with adverse early outcomes, but long-term effects are unknown. The first aim of this study was to compare the long-term rates of death, stroke, and cardiac events in SAH survivors versus a matched population without SAH. The second aim was to quantify the effects of cardiac injury on the outcome rates. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with and without non-traumatic SAH. For aim #1, the predictor variable was SAH and the outcome variables were all-cause and cerebrovascular mortality, stroke, cardiac mortality, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and heart failure (HF) admission. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed. For aim #2, the predictor variables were cardiac injury (elevated serum cardiac enzymes or a diagnosis code for ACS) and dysfunction (pulmonary edema on X-Ray or a diagnosis code for HF). RESULTS: Compared with 4,695 members without SAH, the 910 SAH patients had higher rates of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR 2.6], 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.0-3.4), cerebrovascular mortality (HR 30.6, CI 13.5-69.4), and stroke (HR 10.2, CI 7.5-13.8). Compared with the non-SAH group, the SAH patients with cardiac injury had increased rates of all-cause mortality (HR 5.3, CI 3.0-9.3), cardiac mortality (HR 7.3, CI 1.7-31.6), and heart failure (HR 4.3, CI 1.53-11.88). CONCLUSIONS: SAH survivors have increased long-term mortality and stroke rates compared with a matched non-SAH population. SAH-induced cardiac injury is associated with an increased risk of death and heart failure hospitalization.

Detection of atrial fibrillation after stroke and the risk of recurrent stroke.

Failure to expeditiously diagnose atrial fibrillation (AF) as the cause of ischemic stroke has unclear consequences. We studied the association between detection of AF after discharge and the risk of recurrent stroke. We followed a prospectively assembled cohort of patients hospitalized for stroke for 1 year for new diagnoses of AF and recurrent stroke. We compared rates of recurrent stroke in patients with a new diagnosis of AF and those without a new diagnosis of AF after discharge using Kaplan-Meier survival statistics. We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis of the diagnosis and timing of AF and recurrent stroke after adjustment for age, sex, race, preexisting AF, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, previous stroke, and use of antithrombotic and statin medications. Among 5575 patients with stroke, 113 (2.0%) received a new diagnosis of AF after discharge, and 221 (4.0%) had recurrent stroke. At 1 year, the Kaplan‒Meier rate of recurrent stroke was 18.9% in those with a new diagnosis of AF and 4.5% in others, including those with AF diagnosed before or during the index hospitalization (P = .001). The association between a new diagnosis of AF and stroke recurrence persisted after adjustment for potential confounders (hazard ratio, 5.6; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-9.1). A new diagnosis of AF after discharge for stroke is associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke, even compared with patients with known AF. These findings identify a subset of patients at high risk for recurrent stroke and highlight the importance of timely detection of AF in patients with stroke.

Slowing demand for total joint arthroplasty in a population of 3.2 million.

Accurate projections of future demand require constant updates of current data. This article reviews the most recent usage data for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) in a community-based hospital system with 3.2 million members. We used administrative databases to determine plan membership, surgical volume, and age-adjusted incidence rates for TJA from 1996 through 2009. The annual growth rate in surgical volume peaked in 2002 at 18% and decreased to 3% by 2009. The annual growth rate for age-adjusted incidence rates peaked in 2002 at 13% and declined to 2% in 2009. In our population, the incidence of TJA continues to rise but at a much slower pace than in recent years.

Temporal Changes in Health Care Utilization among Participants of a Medically Supervised Weight Management Program.

CONTEXT: Obesity is associated with increased incidence of chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, systemic hypertension, and other risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Obesity is also associated with increased use of outpatient clinical services, a metric of health care utilization. However, little is known of temporal changes in health care utilization among obese participants of a medical weight management program. OBJECTIVE: To assess changes in 3 health care utilization metrics (primary care physician office visits, ambulatory clinic office visits, and health care touches [encounters]) in weight management program participants across 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Centers during a 5-year period. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study of 10,693 participants, with a linear-mixed effects model to account for repeated-measures analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Five-year temporal changes in the 3 health care metrics. RESULTS: At baseline, the participants' average age (standard deviation) was 51.1 (12.4) years, and their mean body mass index (standard deviation) was 39.7 (7.2) kg/m2. At the end of 4 months, there was a decrease in primary care visits (p < 0.001), with an increase in ambulatory clinic visits and health care touches (p < 0.001), because of increased weight management visits. At the end of 5 years, there was a 25% to 35% decrease from baseline in all 3 health care utilization metrics (p < 0.0001). Although slightly attenuated, these findings were similar in a risk-adjusted model. CONCLUSION: Our findings may be useful to other integrated health care delivery systems considering initiating a similar weight management program.

Real-World Effectiveness of a Medically Supervised Weight Management Program in a Large Integrated Health Care Delivery System: Five-Year Outcomes.

CONTEXT: There are insufficient data on the long-term, nonsurgical, nonpharmacologic treatment of obesity. OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in weight over 5 years in participants enrolled between April 1, 2007, and December 31, 2014, in a medically supervised weight management program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Centers. The program consisted of 3 phases: Complete meal replacement for 16 weeks; transition phase, 17 to 29 weeks; and lifestyle maintenance phase, 30 to 82 weeks. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study of 10,693 participants (2777 available for analysis at 5 years); no comparator group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Average change in weight from baseline to follow-up. RESULTS: Average age was 51.1 (standard deviation = 12.4) years, and 72.8% were women. Average baseline weight in the entire cohort was 112.9 kg (standard error [SE] = 0.23). Weight (kg) significantly changed over time: 4 months, -17.3 (SE = 0.12); 1 year, -14.2 (SE = 0.12); 2 years, -8.6 (SE = 0.14); 3 years, -6.9 (SE = 0.17); 4 years, -6.5 (SE = 0.16), and 5 years, -6.4 (SE = 0.29); p < 0.0001). In those with 5-year follow-up, weight loss between 5.0 and 9.9% below baseline occurred in 16.3% (SE = 0.004, 95% CI = 15.3% - 17.2%) and weight loss of 10.0% or more of baseline occurred in 35.2% (SE = 0.01, 95% CI = 33.6% - 36.7%). CONCLUSION: The average weight change of obese adults who participated in a medically supervised weight management program, with available 5-year data, was a statistically and clinically significant 5.8% weight loss from baseline.

Comparative Trends in Heart Disease, Stroke, and All-Cause Mortality in the United States and a Large Integrated Healthcare Delivery System.

OBJECTIVES: Heart disease and stroke remain among the leading causes of death nationally. We examined whether differences in recent trends in heart disease, stroke, and total mortality exist in the United States and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), a large integrated healthcare delivery system. METHODS: The main outcome measures were comparisons of US and KPNC total, age-specific, and sex-specific changes from 2000 to 2015 in mortality rates from heart disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and all causes. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data system was used to determine US mortality rates. Mortality rates for KPNC were determined from health system, Social Security vital status, and state death certificate databases. RESULTS: Declines in age-adjusted mortality rates were noted in KPNC and the United States for heart disease (36.3% in KPNC vs 34.6% in the United States), coronary heart disease (51.0% vs 47.9%), stroke (45.5% vs 38.2%), and all-cause mortality (16.8% vs 15.6%). However, steeper declines were noted in KPNC than the United States among those aged 45 to 65 years for heart disease (48.3% KPNC vs 23.6% United States), coronary heart disease (55.6% vs 35.9%), stroke (55.8% vs 26.0%), and all-cause mortality (31.5% vs 9.1%). Sex-specific changes were generally similar. CONCLUSIONS: Despite significant declines in heart disease and stroke mortality, there remains an improvement gap nationally among those aged less than 65 years when compared with a large integrated healthcare delivery system. Interventions to improve cardiovascular mortality in the vulnerable middle-aged population may play a key role in closing this gap.

25-Year Physical Activity Trajectories and Development of Subclinical Coronary Artery Disease as Measured by Coronary Artery Calcium: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 25-year physical activity (PA) trajectories from young to middle age and assess associations with the prevalence of coronary artery calcification (CAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study includes 3175 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study who self-reported PA by questionnaire at 8 follow-up examinations over 25 years (from March 1985-June 1986 through June 2010-May 2011). The presence of CAC (CAC>0) at year 25 was measured using computed tomography. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify PA trajectories with increasing age. RESULTS: We identified 3 distinct PA trajectories: trajectory 1, below PA guidelines (n=1813; 57.1%); trajectory 2, meeting PA guidelines (n=1094; 34.5%); and trajectory 3, 3 times PA guidelines (n=268; 8.4%). Trajectory 3 participants had higher adjusted odds of CAC>0 (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% CI, 0.95-1.70) vs those in trajectory 1. Stratification by race showed that white participants who engaged in PA 3 times the guidelines had higher odds of developing CAC>0 (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.21-2.67). Further stratification by sex showed higher odds for white males (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.16-2.98), and similar but nonsignificant trends were noted for white females (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.79-3.71). However, no such higher odds of CAC>0 for trajectory 3 were observed for black participants. CONCLUSION: White individuals who participated in 3 times the recommended PA guidelines over 25 years had higher odds of developing coronary subclinical atherosclerosis by middle age. These findings warrant further exploration, especially by race, into possible biological mechanisms for CAC risk at very high levels of PA.

Recent Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States and Public Health Goals.

IMPORTANCE: Heart disease (HD) and cancer are the 2 leading causes of death in the United States. During the first decade of the 21st century, HD mortality declined at a much greater rate than cancer mortality and it appeared that cancer would overtake HD as the leading cause of death. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether changes in national trends had occurred in recent years in mortality rates due to all cardiovascular disease (CVD), HD, stroke, and cancer and to evaluate the gap between mortality rates from HD and cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data system was used to determine national trends in age-adjusted mortality rates due to all CVD, HD, stroke, and cancer from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2011, and January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2014, overall, by sex, and by race/ethnicity. The present study was conducted from December 30, 2105, to January 18, 2016. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Comparison of annual rates of change and trend in gap between HD and cancer mortality rates. RESULTS: The rate of the decline in all CVD, HD, and stroke mortality decelerated substantially after 2011, and the rate of decline for cancer mortality remained relatively stable. Reported as percentage (95% CI), the annual rates of decline for 2000-2011 were 3.79% (3.61% to 3.97%), 3.69% (3.51% to 3.87%), 4.53% (4.34% to 4.72%), and 1.49% (1.37% to 1.60%) for all CVD, HD, stroke, and cancer mortality, respectively; the rates for 2011-2014 were 0.65% (-0.18% to 1.47%), 0.76% (-0.06% to 1.58%), 0.37% (-0.53% to 1.27%), and 1.55% (1.07% to 2.04%), respectively. Deceleration of the decline in all CVD mortality rates occurred in males, females, and all race/ethnicity groups. For example, the annual rates of decline for total CVD mortality for 2000-2011 were 3.69% (3.48% to 3.89%) for males and 3.98% (3.81% to 4.14%) for females; for 2011-2014, the rates were 0.23% (-0.71% to 1.16%) and 1.17% (0.41% to 1.93%), respectively. The gap between HD and cancer mortality persisted. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Deceleration in the decline of all CVD, HD, and stroke mortality rates has occurred since 2011. If this trend continues, strategic goals for lowering the burden of CVD set by the American Heart Association and the Million Hearts Initiative may not be reached.

COPD and incident cardiovascular disease hospitalizations and mortality: Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between diagnosed and treated COPD and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalization and mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective matched cohort study. SETTING: Northern California Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program (KPNC), a comprehensive prepaid integrated health-care system. PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS: Case patients (n = 45,966) were all KPNC members with COPD who were identified during a 4-year period from January 1996 through December 1999. An equal number of control subjects without COPD were selected from KPNC membership and were matched for gender, year of birth, and length of KPNC membership. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Follow-up conducted for hospitalization and mortality from CVD end points through December 31, 2000. CVD study end points included cardiac arrhythmias, angina pectoris, acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, pulmonary embolism, all of the aforementioned study end points combined, other CVD, and all CVD end points. The mean follow-up time was 2.75 years for case patients and 2.99 years for control subjects. The risk of hospitalization was higher in COPD case patients than in control subjects for all CVD hospitalization and mortality end points. The relative risk (RR) for hospitalization for the composite measure of all study end points was 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99 to 2.20) after adjustment for gender, preexisting CVD study end points, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, and ranged from 1.33 (stroke) to 3.75 (CHF). The adjusted RR for mortality for the composite measure of all study end points was 1.68 (95% CI, 1.50 to 1.88), ranging from 1.25 (stroke) to 3.53 (CHF). Younger patients (ie, age < 65 years) and female patients had higher risks than older and male participants. CONCLUSIONS: COPD was a predictor of CVD hospitalization and mortality over an average follow-up time of nearly 3 years. The finding of a stronger relationship of COPD to CVD outcomes in patients < 65 years of age suggests that CVD risk should be monitored and treated with particular care in younger adults with COPD.

Bariatric surgery results: reporting clinical characteristics and adverse outcomes from an integrated healthcare delivery system.

BACKGROUND: Limited data have been reported on bariatric surgery within a large, high-volume regional multicenter integrated healthcare delivery system. OBJECTIVES: Review clinical characteristics and short- and intermediate-term outcomes and adverse events from a bariatric surgery program within an integrated healthcare delivery system. SETTING: Single high-volume, multicenter regional integrated healthcare delivery system. METHODS: Adult patients who underwent primary bariatric surgery during 2010-2011 were reviewed. Clinical characteristics, outcomes, and weight loss results were extracted from the electronic medical record. RESULTS: A total of 2399 patients were identified within the study period. The 30-day rates of clinical outcomes for Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB; n = 1313) and sleeve gastrectomy (SG; n = 1018) were 2.9% for readmission, 3.0% for major complications, .8% for reoperation, and 0% for mortality. One-year and 2-year weight loss results were as follows: percent weight loss (%WL) was 31.4 (±SD 8.5) and 34.2±12.0% for SG and 34.1±9.3 and 39.1±11.9 for RYGB; percent excess weight loss (%EBWL) was 64.2±18.0 and 69.8±23.7 for SG and 68.0±19.3 and 77.8±23.7 for RYGB; percent excess body mass index loss (%EBMIL) was 72.9±21.0 and 77.7±22.4 for SG and 76.6±22.1% and 85.6±21.6 for RYGB. Follow-up for each procedure at 1 year was 76% for SG (n = 778) and 80% for RYGB (n = 1052) and at 2 years was 65% for SG (n = 659) and 67% for RYGB (n = 875). CONCLUSIONS: A large regional high-volume multicenter bariatric program within an integrated healthcare delivery system can produce excellent short-term results with low rates of short- and intermediate-term adverse outcomes.

Effects of the September 11th attacks on urgent and emergent medical evaluations in a Northern California managed care plan.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, affected the health of persons far from the attacks, we studied rates of urgent and emergency medical evaluations among the 3 million persons enrolled in a managed care plan in Northern California. METHODS: Using a computerized database of all urgent care and emergency department evaluations, we monitored physician diagnoses made during the 6 weeks before and after September 11, 2001, at 16 hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program. Actual rates of evaluations and diagnoses were compared with expected rates based on similar periods in 1998, 1999, and 2000. RESULTS: There were 4260 fewer urgent and emergent medical evaluations than expected during the 6 weeks beginning September 11, 2001 (-4%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3% to -5%; P <0.0001; N = 95,603). Emergency department visits occurred at the expected rate (-1%; 95% CI: -2% to 1%; P = 0.34), but urgent care visits were reduced (-9%; 95% CI: -8% to -11%; P <0.0001). Evaluations were particularly less frequent during the week beginning September 11 (-7%; 95% CI: -4% to -9%; P <0.0001), but a decrease persisted afterwards. Compared with expected rates, injuries (P <0.0001) and ill-defined/symptom-related diagnoses (P <0.0001) were less frequent, while gastrointestinal diagnoses (P = 0.01) were more frequent, during the 6 weeks after the attacks. Total urgent and emergent evaluations were mostly unchanged on September 11; only diagnoses associated with cardiac ischemia were more frequent (+70%; 95% CI: 10% to 163%; P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Total urgent and emergent medical evaluations in a California managed care plan were reduced during the 6 weeks after the September 11th attacks. These results may help in allocation of resources during national disasters.

Recent combined hormonal contraceptives (CHCs) and the risk of thromboembolism and other cardiovascular events in new users.

BACKGROUND: Combined hormonal contraceptives (CHCs) place women at increased risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) and arterial thrombotic events (ATEs), including acute myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. There is concern that three recent CHC preparations [drospirenone-containing pills (DRSPs), the norelgestromin-containing transdermal patch (NGMN) and the etonogestrel vaginal ring (ETON)] may place women at even higher risk of thrombosis than other older low-dose CHCs with a known safety profile. STUDY DESIGN: All VTEs and all hospitalized ATEs were identified in women, ages 10-55 years, from two integrated health care programs and two state Medicaid programs during the time period covering their new use of DRSP, NGMN, ETON or one of four low-dose estrogen comparator CHCs. The relative risk of thrombotic and thromboembolic outcomes associated with the newer CHCs in relation to the comparators was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age, site and year of entry into the study. RESULTS: The hazards ratio for DRSP in relation to low-dose estrogen comparators among new users was 1.77 (95% confidence interval 1.33-2.35) for VTE and 2.01 (1.06-3.81) for ATE. The increased risk of DRSP was limited to the 10-34-year age group for VTE and the 35-55-year group for ATE. Use of the NGMN patch and ETON vaginal ring was not associated with increased risk of either thromboembolic or thrombotic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In new users, DRSP was associated with higher risk of thrombotic events (VTE and ATE) relative to low-dose estrogen comparator CHCs, while the use of the NGMN patch and ETON vaginal ring was not.

Chiari type I malformation in a pediatric population.

The natural history of Chiari I malformation in children remains unclear. A population-based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Radiology reports from all head and spine magnetic resonance imaging scans (n = 5248) performed among 741,815 children under age 20 within Kaiser Northern California, 1997-1998, were searched for Chiari I. Medical records and imaging studies were reviewed to determine clinical and radiographic predictors of significant neurologic symptoms, defined as moderate to severe headache, neck pain, vertigo, or ataxia. The 51 patients identified with Chiari I represented 1% of the children who had head or spine magnetic resonance imaging scans performed during the study period. Headache (55%) and neck pain (12%) were the most common symptoms. Syringomyelia was present in 6 patients (12%) at initial diagnosis; no new syrinxes developed during follow-up. Older age at time of diagnosis was associated with increased risk of headache (odds ratio OR = 1.3, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.1-1.5) and significant neurologic symptoms (OR = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.04-1.4). Chiari I, an underrecognized cause of headaches in children, is also frequently discovered incidentally in children without symptoms. Larger and longer-term studies are needed to determine the prognosis and optimal treatment of pediatric Chiari I.