Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments in data-rich systems: An application to eastern Bering Sea fish and invertebrate stocks.

Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait-based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data-rich and data-poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait-based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data-rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex-vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from "low" to "high," but vulnerability ranged between "low" and "moderate" due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks.

The role of maternal age and context-dependent maternal effects in the offspring provisioning of a long-lived marine teleost.

Despite evidence of maternal age effects in a number of teleost species, there have been challenges to the assertion that maternal age intrinsically influences offspring quality. From an evolutionary perspective, maternal age effects result in young females paradoxically investing in less fit offspring despite a greater potential fitness benefit that might be gained by allocating this energy to individual somatic growth. Although a narrow range of conditions could lead to a maternal fitness benefit via the production of lower quality offspring, evolutionary theorists suggest these conditions are seldom met and that the reported maternal age effects are more likely products of the environmental context. Our goal was to determine if maternal effects operated on offspring provisioning in a long-lived rockfish (genus Sebastes), and to evaluate any such effects as an intrinsic function of maternal age or a context-dependent effect of the offspring release environment. We found that offspring provisioning is a function of both maternal age and the timing of offspring release; older females exhibit increased provisioning over younger females throughout the spawning season despite a decrease in provisioning across all maternal ages as the season progresses. These findings suggest a role for both maternal age effects and a potential context-dependent maternal effect in population productivity, carrying important implications when modelling population persistence and resilience.