Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk.

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Decision-analytic evaluation of the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent breast and ovarian cancer in German women with BRCA-1/2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Women with inherited mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes have increased lifetime risks for developing breast and/or ovarian cancer and may develop these cancers around the age of 30 years. Therefore, prevention of breast and ovarian cancer in these women may need to start relatively early in life. In this study we systematically evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of different prevention strategies for breast and ovarian cancer in women with BRCA-1/2 mutation in Germany. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model simulating lifetime breast and ovarian cancer development in BRCA-1/2 carriers was developed. Different strategies including intensified surveillance (IS), prophylactic bilateral mastectomy (PBM), and prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (PBSO) alone or in combination at different ages were evaluated. German clinical, epidemiological, and economic (in 2022 Euro) data were used. Outcomes included cancer incidences, mortality, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We adopted the German health-care system perspective and discounted costs and health effects with 3% annually. RESULTS: All intervention strategies are more effective and less costly than IS alone. Prevention with PBM plus PBSO at age 30 maximizes life expectancy with 6.3 LYs gained, whereas PBM at age 30 with delayed PBSO at age 35 improves quality of life with 11.1 QALYs gained, when compared to IS alone. A further delay of PBSO was associated with lower effectiveness. Both strategies are cost effective with ICERs significantly below 10,000 EUR/LYG or QALY. CONCLUSION: Based on our results, PBM at age 30 plus PBSO between age 30 and 40 prolongs life and is cost effective in women with BRCA-1/2 mutations in Germany. Serial preventive surgeries with delayed PBSO potentially improve quality of life for women. However, delaying PBM and/or PBSO further may lead to increased mortality and reduced QALYs.

Reducing overtreatment associated with overdiagnosis in cervical cancer screening-A model-based benefit-harm analysis for Austria.

A general concern exists that cervical cancer screening using human papillomavirus (HPV) testing may lead to considerable overtreatment. We evaluated the trade-off between benefits and overtreatment among different screening strategies differing by primary tests (cytology, p16/Ki-67, HPV alone or in combinations), interval, age and diagnostic follow-up algorithms. A Markov state-transition model calibrated to the Austrian epidemiological context was used to predict cervical cancer cases, deaths, overtreatments and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. When considering the same screening interval, HPV-based screening strategies were more effective compared to cytology or p16/Ki-67 testing (e.g., relative reduction in cervical cancer with biennial screening: 67.7% for HPV + Pap cotesting, 57.3% for cytology and 65.5% for p16/Ki-67), but were associated with increased overtreatment (e.g., 19.8% more conizations with biennial HPV + Papcotesting vs. biennial cytology). The IHBRs measured in unnecessary conizations per additional prevented cancer-related death were 31 (quinquennial Pap + p16/Ki-67-triage), 49 (triennial Pap + p16/Ki-67-triage), 58 (triennial HPV + Pap cotesting), 66 (biennial HPV + Pap cotesting), 189 (annual Pap + p16/Ki-67-triage) and 401 (annual p16/Ki-67 testing alone). The IHBRs increased significantly with increasing screening adherence rates and slightly with lower age at screening initiation, with a reduction in HPV incidence or with lower Pap-test sensitivity. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, biennial or triennial HPV-based screening in women as of age 30 and biennial cytology in younger women may be considered in opportunistic screening settings with low or moderate adherence such as in Austria. In organized settings with high screening adherence and in postvaccination settings with lower HPV prevalence, the interval may be prolonged.

Evaluating the effects of a risk-adapted screening program for familial colorectal cancer in individuals between 25 and 50 years of age: study protocol for the prospective population-based intervention study FARKOR.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common malignant disease and the second most common cause of cancer death in Germany. Official CRC screening starts at age 50. As there is evidence that individuals with a family history of CRC have an increased risk of developing CRC before age 50, there are recommendations to start screening for this group earlier. This study aims to evaluate the clinical and economic effects of a risk-adapted screening program for CRC in individuals between 25 and 50 years of age with potentially increased familial CRC risk. METHODS: FARKOR (Familiäres Risiko für das Kolorektale Karzinom) is a population-based prospective intervention study. All members of cooperating statutory health insurance companies between 25 and 50 years of age living in a model region in Germany (federal state of Bavaria, 3.5 million inhabitants in this age group) can participate in the program between October 2018 and March 2020. Recruitment takes place through physicians and through a public campaign. Additionally, insurances contact recently diagnosed CRC patients in order to encourage their relatives to participate in the program. Physicians assess a participant's familial history of CRC using a short questionnaire. All participants with a family history of CRC are invited to a shared decision making process to decide on further screening options consisting of either undergoing an immunological test for fecal occult blood or colonoscopy. Comprehensive data collection based on self-reported lifestyle information, medical documentation and health administrative databases accompanies the screening program. Longterm benefits, harms and the cost-effectiveness of the risk-adapted CRC screening program will be assessed by decision analytic modeling. DISCUSSION: The data collected in this study will add important pieces of information that are still missing in the evaluation of the effects and the cost-effectiveness of a risk-adapted CRC screening strategy for individuals under 50 years of age. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS-IDDRKS00015097.

Effectiveness, benefit harm and cost effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Clear evidence on the benefit-harm balance and cost effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is missing. We aim to systematically evaluate the long-term effectiveness, harms and cost effectiveness of different organized CRC screening strategies in Austria. METHODS: A decision-analytic cohort simulation model for colorectal adenoma and cancer with a lifelong time horizon was developed, calibrated to the Austrian epidemiological setting and validated against observed data. We compared four strategies: 1) No Screening, 2) FIT: annual immunochemical fecal occult blood test age 40-75 years, 3) gFOBT: annual guaiac-based fecal occult blood test age 40-75 years, and 4) COL: 10-yearly colonoscopy age 50-70 years. Predicted outcomes included: benefits expressed as life-years gained [LYG], CRC-related deaths avoided and CRC cases avoided; harms as additional complications due to colonoscopy (physical harm) and positive test results (psychological harm); and lifetime costs. Tradeoffs were expressed as incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR, incremental positive test results per LYG) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICER]. The perspective of the Austrian public health care system was adopted. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. RESULTS: The most effective strategies were FIT and COL. gFOBT was less effective and more costly than FIT. Moving from COL to FIT results in an incremental unintended psychological harm of 16 additional positive test results to gain one life-year. COL was cost saving compared to No Screening. Moving from COL to FIT has an ICER of 15,000 EUR per LYG. CONCLUSIONS: Organized CRC-screening with annual FIT or 10-yearly colonoscopy is most effective. The choice between these two options depends on the individual preferences and benefit-harm tradeoffs of screening candidates.

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

BACKGROUND: Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. METHODS: A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. RESULTS: Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Benefits and harms of prostate cancer screening - predictions of the ONCOTYROL prostate cancer outcome and policy model.

BACKGROUND: A recent recalibration of the ONCOTYROL Prostate Cancer Outcome and Policy (PCOP) Model, assuming that latent prostate cancer (PCa) detectable at autopsy might be detectable by screening as well, resulted in considerable worsening of the benefit-harm balance of screening. In this study, we used the recalibrated model to assess the effects of familial risk, quality of life (QoL) preferences, age, and active surveillance. METHODS: Men with average and elevated familial PCa risk were simulated in separate models, differing in familial risk parameters. Familial risk was assumed to affect PCa onset and progression simultaneously in the base-case, and separately in scenario analyses. Evaluated screening strategies included one-time screening at different ages, and screening at different intervals and age ranges. Optimal screening strategies were identified depending on age and individual QoL preferences. Strategies were additionally evaluated with active surveillance by biennial re-biopsy delaying treatment of localized cancer until grade progression to Gleason score ≥ 7. RESULTS: Screening men with average PCa risk reduced quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) even under favorable assumptions. Men with elevated familial risk, depending on age and disutilities, gained QALE. While for men with familial risk aged 55 and 60 years annual screening to age 69 was the optimal strategy over most disutility ranges, no screening was the preferred option for 65 year-old men with average and above disutilities. Active surveillance greatly reduced overtreatment, but QALE gains by averted adverse events were opposed by losses due to delayed treatment and additional biopsies. The effect of active surveillance on the benefit-harm balance of screening differed between populations, as net losses and gains in QALE predicted for screening without active surveillance in men with average and familial PCa risk, respectively, were both reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Assumptions about PCa risk and screen-detectable prevalence significantly affect the benefit-harm balance of screening. Based on the assumptions of our model, PCa screening should focus on candidates with familial predisposition with consideration of individual QoL preferences and age. Active surveillance may require treatment initiation before Gleason score progression to 7. Alternative active surveillance strategies should be evaluated in further modeling studies.

Improving shared decision-making about cancer treatment through design-based data-driven decision-support tools and redesigning care paths: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project.

Background: Patients with cancer often have to make complex decisions about treatment, with the options varying in risk profiles and effects on survival and quality of life. Moreover, inefficient care paths make it hard for patients to participate in shared decision-making. Data-driven decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, support personalized care, improve health outcomes and promote health equity. However, decision-support tools currently seldom consider quality of life or individual preferences, and their use in clinical practice remains limited, partly because they are not well integrated in patients' care paths. Aim and objectives: The central aim of the 4D PICTURE project is to redesign patients' care paths and develop and integrate evidence-based decision-support tools to improve decision-making processes in cancer care delivery. This article presents an overview of this international, interdisciplinary project. Design methods and analysis: In co-creation with patients and other stakeholders, we will develop data-driven decision-support tools for patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer and melanoma. We will support treatment decisions by using large, high-quality datasets with state-of-the-art prognostic algorithms. We will further develop a conversation tool, the Metaphor Menu, using text mining combined with citizen science techniques and linguistics, incorporating large datasets of patient experiences, values and preferences. We will further develop a promising methodology, MetroMapping, to redesign care paths. We will evaluate MetroMapping and these integrated decision-support tools, and ensure their sustainability using the Nonadoption, Abandonment, Scale-Up, Spread, and Sustainability (NASSS) framework. We will explore the generalizability of MetroMapping and the decision-support tools for other types of cancer and across other EU member states. Ethics: Through an embedded ethics approach, we will address social and ethical issues. Discussion: Improved care paths integrating comprehensive decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, their significant others and healthcare providers in decision-making and improve outcomes. This project will strengthen health care at the system level by improving its resilience and efficiency.

Improving the cancer patient journey and respecting personal preferences: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project The 4D PICTURE project aims to help cancer patients, their families and healthcare providers better undertstand their options. It supports their treatment and care choices, at each stage of disease, by drawing on large amounts of evidence from different types of European data. The project involves experts from many different specialist areas who are based in nine European countries. The overall aim is to improve the cancer patient journey and ensure personal preferences are respected.

Colorectal Cancer Screening for Persons With a Positive Family History­Evaluation of the FARKOR Program for the Secondary Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Persons Aged 25 to 50.

BACKGROUND: Persons with a positive family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are more likely than others to develop CRC and are also younger at the onset of the disease. Nonetheless, the German Federal Joint Committee (G-BA, Gemeinsamer Bundes - ausschuss) recommends screening all persons aged 50 and above regardless of their family history. FARKOR was a project supported by the Innovation Fund of the G-BA to study the feasibility, efficacy, and safety of a risk-adapted early detection program for CRC among persons aged 25 to 50 without any specific past medical history. METHODS: Physicians in private practice in Bavaria documented their activities relating to FARKOR online. The FARKOR process comprised a declaration of consent, a simplified family history for CRC, an optional, more comprehensive family history, a counseling session for participatory decision-making on further measures, and various modalities of screening (an immunological fecal occult blood test [iFOBT], colonoscopy, or no screening). Related physician activities outside the FARKOR process were assessed by record linkage between study data and data of the patients' health insurance carriers. RESULTS: The simplified family history was documented in 25 847 persons and positive for CRC in 5769 (22.3%). 3232 persons had a more comprehensive family history, among whom 2054 (63.6%) participated in screening measures. 1595 underwent colonoscopy; 278 persons who had already undergone colonoscopy in the preceding five years were excluded from the analysis. Colonoscopy revealed adenoma in 232 persons (17,6 %), advanced adenoma in 78 (5.9%) and carcinoma in 4 (0.3%). There were no serious complications. CONCLUSION: The detection rates in this study corresponded to those of persons aged 55 to 59 in the current early detection program. Despite numerous problems in the performance of the study (inconsistencies in documentation, external performance of screening measures on program participants), the results support the feasibility of a risk-adapted early detection program in the young target population with a family history of CRC.

Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer: systematic review using the HTA Core Model® for Rapid Relative Effectiveness Assessment.

Background: Stool DNA testing for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a non-invasive technology with the potential to supplement established CRC screening tests. The aim of this health technology assessment was to evaluate effectiveness and safety of currently CE-marked stool DNA tests, compared to other CRC tests in CRC screening strategies in an asymptomatic screening population. Methods: The assessment was carried out following the guidelines of the European Network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA). This included a systematic literature search in MED-LINE, Cochrane and EMBASE in 2018. Manufacturers were asked to provide additional data. Five patient interviews helped assessing potential ethical or social aspects and patients' experiences and preferences. We assessed the risk of bias using QUADAS-2, and the quality of the body of evidence using GRADE. Results: We identified three test accuracy studies, two of which investigated a multitarget stool DNA test (Cologuard®, compared fecal immunochemical test (FIT)) and one a combined DNA stool assay (ColoAlert®, compared to guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (gFOBT), Pyruvate Kinase Isoenzyme Type M2 (M2-PK) and combined gFOBT/M2-PK). We found five published surveys on patient satisfaction. No primary study investigating screening effects on CRC incidence or on overall mortality was found. Both stool DNA tests showed in direct comparison higher sensitivity for the detection of CRC and (advanced) adenoma compared to FIT, or gFOBT, respectively, but had lower specificity. However, these comparative results may depend on the exact type of FIT used. The reported test failure rates were higher for stool DNA testing than for FIT. The certainty of evidence was moderate to high for Cologuard® studies, and low to very low for the ColoAlert® study which refers to a former version of the product and yielded no direct evidence on the test accuracy for ad-vanced versus non-advanced adenoma. Conclusions: ColoAlert® is the only stool DNA test currently sold in Europe and is available at a lower price than Cologuard®, but reliable evidence is lacking. A screening study including the current product version of ColoAlert® and suitable comparators would, therefore, help evaluate the effectiveness of this screening option in a European context.

An iterative algorithm for optimizing COVID-19 vaccination strategies considering unknown supply.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The distribution of the newly developed vaccines presents a great challenge in the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Policy makers must decide which subgroups should be vaccinated first to minimize the negative consequences of the pandemic. These decisions must be made upfront and under uncertainty regarding the amount of vaccine doses available at a given time. The objective of the present work was to develop an iterative optimization algorithm, which provides a prioritization order of predefined subgroups. The results of this algorithm should be optimal but also robust with respect to potentially limited vaccine supply. METHODS: We present an optimization meta-heuristic which can be used in a classic simulation-optimization setting with a simulation model in a feedback loop. The meta-heuristic can be applied in combination with any epidemiological simulation model capable of depicting the effects of vaccine distribution to the modeled population, accepts a vaccine prioritization plan in a certain notation as input, and generates decision making relevant variables such as COVID-19 caused deaths or hospitalizations as output. We finally demonstrate the mechanics of the algorithm presenting the results of a case study performed with an epidemiological agent-based model. RESULTS: We show that the developed method generates a highly robust vaccination prioritization plan which is proven to fulfill an elegant supremacy criterion: the plan is equally optimal for any quantity of vaccine doses available. The algorithm was tested on a case study in the Austrian context and it generated a vaccination plan prioritization favoring individuals age 65+, followed by vulnerable groups, to minimize COVID-19 related burden. DISCUSSION: The results of the case study coincide with the international policy recommendations which strengthen the applicability of the approach. We conclude that the path-dependent optimum optimum provided by the algorithm is well suited for real world applications, in which decision makers need to develop strategies upfront under high levels of uncertainty.

DNA methylation-based detection and prediction of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and invasive cervical cancer with the WID™-qCIN test.

BACKGROUND: Cervical screening using primary human papilloma virus (HPV) testing and cytology is being implemented in several countries. Cytology as triage for colposcopy referral suffers from several shortcomings. HPV testing overcomes some of these but lacks specificity in women under 30. Here, we aimed to develop and validate an automatable triage test that is highly sensitive and specific independently of age and sample heterogeneity, and predicts progression to CIN3+ in HPV+ patients. RESULTS: The WID™-qCIN, assessing three regions in human genes DPP6, RALYL, and GSX1, was validated in both a diagnostic (case-control) and predictive setting (nested case-control), in a total of 761 samples. Using a predefined threshold, the sensitivity of the WID™-qCIN test was 100% and 78% to detect invasive cancer and CIN3, respectively. Sensitivity to detect CIN3+ was 65% and 83% for women < and ≥ 30 years of age. The specificity was 90%. Importantly, the WID™-qCIN test identified 52% of ≥ 30-year-old women with a cytology negative (cyt-) index sample who were diagnosed with CIN3 1-4 years after sample donation. CONCLUSION: We identified suitable DNAme regions in an epigenome-wide discovery using HPV+ controls and CIN3+ cases and established the WID™-qCIN, a PCR-based DNAme test. The WID™-qCIN test has a high sensitivity and specificity that may outperform conventional cervical triage tests and can in an objective, cheap, and scalable fashion identify most women with and at risk of (pre-)invasive cervical cancer. However, evaluation was limited to case-control settings and future studies will assess performance and generalisability in a randomised controlled trial.

Causal evidence in health decision making: methodological approaches of causal inference and health decision science.

Objectives: Public health decision making is a complex process based on thorough and comprehensive health technology assessments involving the comparison of different strategies, values and tradeoffs under uncertainty. This process must be based on best available evidence and plausible assumptions. Causal inference and health decision science are two methodological approaches providing information to help guide decision making in health care. Both approaches are quantitative methods that use statistical and modeling techniques and simplifying assumptions to mimic the complexity of the real world. We intend to review and lay out both disciplines with their aims, strengths and limitations based on a combination of textbook knowledge and expert experience. Methods: To help understanding and differentiating the methodological approaches of causal inference and health decision science, we reviewed both methods with the focus on aims, research questions, methods, assumptions, limitations and challenges, and software. For each methodological approach, we established a group of four experts from our own working group to carefully review and summarize each method, followed by structured discussion rounds and written reviews, in which the experts from all disciplines including HTA and medicine were involved. The entire expert group discussed objectives, strengths and limitations of both methodological areas, and potential synergies. Finally, we derived recommendations for further research and provide a brief outlook on future trends. Results: Causal inference methods aim for drawing causal conclusions from empirical data on the relationship of pre-specified interventions on a specific target outcome and apply a counterfactual framework and statistical techniques to derive causal effects of exposures or interventions from these data. Causal inference is based on a causal diagram, more specifically, a directed acyclic graph (DAG), which encodes the assumptions regarding the causal relations between variables. Depending on the type of confounding and selection bias, traditional statistical methods or more complex g-methods are needed to derive valid causal effects. Besides the correct specification of the DAG and the statistical model, assumptions such as consistency, positivity, and exchangeability must be checked when aiming at causal inference. Health decision science aims for guiding policy decision making regarding health interventions considering and balancing multiple competing objectives of a decision based on data from multiple sources and studies, for example prevalence studies, clinical trials and long-term observational routine effectiveness studies, and studies on preferences and costs. It involves decision analysis, a systematic, explicit and quantitative framework to guide decisions under uncertainty. Decision analyses are based on decision-analytic models to mimic the course of disease as well as aspects and consequences of the intervention in order to quantitatively optimize the decision. Depending on the type of decision problem, decision trees, state-transition models, discrete event simulation models, dynamic transmission models, or other model types are applied. Models must be validated against observed data, and comprehensive sensitivity analyses must be performed to assess uncertainty. Besides the appropriate choice of the model type and the valid specification of the model structure, it must be checked if input parameters of effects can be interpreted as causal parameters in the model. Otherwise results will be biased. Conclusions: Both causal inference and health decision science aim for providing best causal evidence for informed health decision making. The strengths and limitations of both methods differ and a good understanding of both methods is essential for correct application but also for correct interpretation of findings from the described methods. Importantly, decision-analytic modeling should be combined with causal inference when developing guidance and recommendations regarding decisions on health care interventions.

Cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention: a systematic review with a focus on risk-adapted strategies.

OBJECTIVES: Benefit and cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening are still matters of controversy. Risk-adapted strategies are proposed to improve its benefit-harm and cost-benefit relations. Our objective was to perform a systematic review on economic breast cancer models evaluating primary and secondary prevention strategies in the European health care setting, with specific focus on model results, model characteristics, and risk-adapted strategies. METHODS: Literature databases were systematically searched for economic breast cancer models evaluating the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention strategies in the European health care context. Characteristics, methodological details and results of the identified studies are reported in evidence tables. Economic model outputs are standardized to achieve comparable cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-two economic evaluations of breast cancer screening and seven evaluations of primary breast cancer prevention were included. Five screening studies and none of the prevention studies considered risk-adapted strategies. Studies differed in methodologic features. Only about half of the screening studies modeled overdiagnosis-related harms, most often indirectly and without reporting their magnitude. All models predict gains in life expectancy and/or quality-adjusted life expectancy at acceptable costs. However, risk-adapted screening was shown to be more effective and efficient than conventional screening. CONCLUSIONS: Economic models suggest that breast cancer screening and prevention are cost effective in the European setting. All screening models predict gains in life expectancy, which has not yet been confirmed by trials. European models evaluating risk-adapted screening strategies are rare, but suggest that risk-adapted screening is more effective and efficient than conventional screening.

Benefits and Harms of a Prevention Program for Iodine Deficiency Disorders: Predictions of the Decision-Analytic EUthyroid Model.

Background: Iodine deficiency is one of the most prevalent causes of intellectual disability and can lead to impaired thyroid function and other iodine deficiency disorders (IDDs). Despite progress made on eradicating iodine deficiency in the last decades in Europe, IDDs are still prevalent. Currently, evidence-based information on the benefit/harm balance of IDD prevention in Europe is lacking. We developed a decision-analytic model and conducted a public health decision analysis for the long-term net benefit of a mandatory IDD prevention program for the German population with moderate iodine deficiency, as a case example for a European country. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model simulating the incidence and consequences of IDDs in the absence or presence of a mandatory IDD prevention program (iodine fortification of salt) in an open population with current demographic characteristics in Germany and with moderate ID. We collected data on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and quality of life from European studies for all health states of the model. Our primary net-benefit outcome was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) predicted over a period of 120 years. In addition, we calculated incremental life years and disease events over time. We performed a systematic and comprehensive uncertainty assessment using multiple deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses. Results: In the base-case analysis, the IDD prevention program is more beneficial than no prevention, both in terms of QALYs and life years. Health gains predicted for the open cohort over a time horizon of 120 years for the German population (82.2 million inhabitants) were 33 million QALYs and 5 million life years. Nevertheless, prevention is not beneficial for all individuals since it causes additional hyperthyroidism (2.7 million additional cases). Results for QALY gains were stable in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: IDD prevention via mandatory iodine fortification of salt increases quality-adjusted life expectancy in a European population with moderate ID, and is therefore beneficial on a population level. However, further ethical aspects should be considered before implementing a mandatory IDD prevention program. Costs for IDD prevention and treatment should be determined to evaluate the cost effectiveness of IDD prevention.

The economic impact of prevention, monitoring and treatment strategies for iodine deficiency disorders in Germany.

OBJECTIVE: More than 30% of the German population suffers from mild to moderate iodine deficiency causing goiter and other iodine deficiency disorders (IDDs). The economic burden of iodine deficiency is still unclear. We aimed to assess costs for prevention, monitoring and treatment of IDDs in Germany. DESIGN: We performed a comprehensive cost analysis. METHODS: We assessed direct medical costs and direct non-medical costs for inpatient and outpatient care of IDDs and costs for productivity loss due to the absence of work in 2018. Additionally, we calculated total costs for an IDD prevention program comprising universal salt iodization (USI). We performed threshold analyses projecting how many cases of IDDs or related treatments would need to be avoided for USI to be cost-saving. RESULTS: Annual average costs per case in the year of diagnosis were € 211 for goiter/thyroid nodules; € 308 for hyperthyroidism; and € 274 for hypothyroidism. Average one-time costs for thyroidectomy were € 4184 and € 3118 for radioiodine therapy. Average costs for one case of spontaneous abortion were € 916. Annual costs of intellectual disability were € 14,202. In the German population, total annual costs for USI would amount to 8 million Euro. To be cost-saving, USI would need to prevent, for example, 37,900 cases of goiter/thyroid nodules. CONCLUSION: USI potentially saves costs, if a minimum amount of IDDs per year could be avoided. In order to recommend the implementation of USI, a full health-economic evaluation including a comprehensive benefit-harm assessment is needed.

Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities-An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation.

(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45-64 years), younger (15-44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available.

Long-Term Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Multiple Myeloma Treatment Strategies for Elderly Transplant-Ineligible Patients in Serbia.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on long-term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of treatment sequences for multiple myeloma (MM) is sparse. We used published data and country-specific data to assess the cost effectiveness of four-line treatment sequences for elderly transplant-ineligible patients with MM in Serbia. METHOD: We developed a Markov cohort model to compare long-term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of five sequential MM treatment alternatives from the perspective of the national healthcare provider. Effectiveness parameters on progression, mortality and adverse events were extracted from published clinical trials. Costs were based on price lists of the National Health Insurance Fund. We compared life expectancy, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios among alternative courses of action. The model was analyzed over a lifelong time horizon applying a 3% annual discount rate for effectiveness outcomes and costs. Robustness of the model was tested in multiple deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The sequences were defined by the frontline treatment: MPT (melphalan-prednisone-thalidomide), MPV (melphalanprednisone-bortezomib), CTD (cyclophosphamide-thalidomide-dexamethasone), VCD (bortezomib-cyclophosphamidedexamethasone) and BP (bendamustine-prednisone). MPV sequence resulted in the highest remaining life expectancy (4.76 life years). Cost-effectiveness analysis resulted in three non-dominated strategies: MPT, VCD, and MPV sequences, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 35,300 per life-year gained (LYG) for VCD and EUR 47,200/LYG for MPV relative to MPT. CONCLUSION: MPV sequence was the most effective in terms of life expectancy for elderly transplant-ineligible MM patients in Serbia. Bortezomib-based strategies would be recommended for the frontline treatment of patients with MM in Serbia if the willingness-to-pay threshold is around EUR 35,000-60,000/LYG.

Cost-Effectiveness of Early Detection and Prevention Strategies for Endometrial Cancer-A Systematic Review.

Endometrial cancer is the most common female genital tract cancer in developed countries. We systematically reviewed the current health-economic evidence on early detection and prevention strategies for endometrial cancer based on a search in relevant databases (Medline/Embase/Cochrane Library/CRD/EconLit). Study characteristics and results including life-years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were summarized in standardized evidence tables. Economic results were transformed into 2019 euros using standard conversion methods (GDP-PPP, CPI). Seven studies were included, evaluating (1) screening for endometrial cancer in women with different risk profiles, (2) risk-reducing interventions for women at increased or high risk for endometrial cancer, and (3) genetic testing for germline mutations followed by risk-reducing interventions for diagnosed mutation carriers. Compared to no screening, screening with transvaginal sonography (TVS), biomarker CA-125, and endometrial biopsy yielded an ICER of 43,600 EUR/LYG (95,800 EUR/QALY) in women with Lynch syndrome at high endometrial cancer risk. For women considering prophylactic surgery, surgery was more effective and less costly than screening. In obese women, prevention using Levonorgestrel as of age 30 for five years had an ICER of 72,000 EUR/LYG; the ICER for using oral contraceptives for five years as of age 50 was 450,000 EUR/LYG. Genetic testing for mutations in women at increased risk for carrying a mutation followed by risk-reducing surgery yielded ICERs below 40,000 EUR/QALY. Based on study results, preventive surgery in mutation carriers and genetic testing in women at increased risk for mutations are cost-effective. Except for high-risk women, screening using TVS and endometrial biopsy is not cost-effective and may lead to overtreatment. Model-based analyses indicate that future biomarker screening in women at increased risk for cancer may be cost-effective, dependent on high test accuracy and moderate test costs. Future research should reveal risk-adapted early detection and prevention strategies for endometrial cancer.

A Systematic Review on Cost-effectiveness Studies Evaluating Ovarian Cancer Early Detection and Prevention Strategies.

Ovarian cancer imposes a substantial health and economic burden. We systematically reviewed current health-economic evidence for ovarian cancer early detection or prevention strategies. Accordingly, we searched relevant databases for cost-effectiveness studies evaluating ovarian cancer early detection or prevention strategies. Study characteristics and results including quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were summarized in standardized evidence tables. Economic results were transformed into 2017 Euros. The included studies (N = 33) evaluated ovarian cancer screening, risk-reducing interventions in women with heterogeneous cancer risks and genetic testing followed by risk-reducing interventions for mutation carriers. Multimodal screening with a risk-adjusted algorithm in postmenopausal women achieved ICERs of 9,800-81,400 Euros/QALY, depending on assumptions on mortality data extrapolation, costs, test performance, and screening frequency. Cost-effectiveness of risk-reducing surgery in mutation carriers ranged from cost-saving to 59,000 Euros/QALY. Genetic testing plus risk-reducing interventions for mutation carriers ranged from cost-saving to 54,000 Euros/QALY in women at increased mutation risk. Our findings suggest that preventive surgery and genetic testing plus preventive surgery in women at high risk for ovarian cancer can be considered effective and cost-effective. In postmenopausal women from the general population, multimodal screening using a risk-adjusted algorithm may be cost-effective.