Successful nonoperative management of uncomplicated appendicitis: predictors and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to identify predictors of successful nonoperative management (NOM) of uncomplicated appendicitis. We hypothesized that the absence of diabetes, absence of an appendicolith, short duration of symptoms, absence of systemic inflammation, and low modified Alvarado score would predict successful NOM. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 81 consecutive patients who underwent NOM of uncomplicated appendicitis. Successful NOM was defined as resolution of appendicitis with antibiotics alone and no recurrent appendicitis within 180 days. Patients with successful NOM (n = 36) were compared with patients who failed NOM (n = 45). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of successful NOM, expressed as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals. Model strength was assessed by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Patient age (35 years), the American Society of Anesthesiologists class (2.0), and Charlson comorbidity index (0.0) were similar between groups. Independent predictors of successful NOM were duration of symptoms prior to admission >25 hours: OR 4.17 (1.42-12.24), maximum temperature within 6 hours of admission <37.3°C: OR 8.07 (1.79-36.38), modified Alvarado score <4: OR 9.06 (1.26-64.93), and appendiceal diameter <13 mm: OR 17.55 (1.30-237.28); model AUC: 0.81 (0.72-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a longer duration of symptoms prior to admission were more likely to have successful NOM. Other independent predictors of successful NOM included lower temperature, lower modified Alvarado score, and smaller appendiceal diameter. These findings provide a framework for clinical decision-making and large-scale derivation and validation of a model to predict successful NOM of uncomplicated appendicitis.

Effect of Time to Operation on Value of Care in Acute Care Surgery.

BACKGROUND: As reimbursement models evolve, there is increasing emphasis on maximizing value-based care for inpatient conditions. We hypothesized that longer intervals between admission and surgery would be associated with worse outcomes and increased costs for acute care surgery patients, and that these associations would be strongest among patients with high-risk conditions. METHODS: We performed a 5-year retrospective analysis of three risk cohorts: appendectomy (low-risk for morbidity and mortality, n = 618), urgent hernia repair (intermediate-risk, n = 80), and laparotomy for intra-abdominal sepsis with temporary abdominal closure (sTAC; high-risk, n = 102). Associations between the interval from admission to surgery and outcomes including infectious complications, mortality, length of stay, and hospital charges were assessed by regression modeling. RESULTS: Median intervals between admission and surgery for appendectomy, hernia repair, and sTAC were 9.3, 13.5, and 8.1 h, respectively, and did not significantly impact infectious complications or mortality. For appendectomy, each 1 h increase from admission to surgery was associated with increased hospital LOS by 1.1 h (p = 0.002) and increased intensive care unit (ICU) LOS by 0.3 h (p = 0.011). For hernia repair, each 1 h increase from admission to surgery was associated with increased antibiotic duration by 1.6 h (p = 0.007), increased hospital LOS by 3.3 h (p = 0.002), increased ICU LOS by 1.5 h (p = 0.001), and increased hospital charges by $1918 (p < 0.001). For sTAC, each 1 h increase from admission to surgery was associated with increased antibiotic duration by 5.0 h (p = 0.006), increased hospital LOS by 3.9 h (p = 0.046), increased ICU LOS by 3.5 h (p = 0.040), and increased hospital charges by $3919 (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Longer intervals from admission to surgery were associated with prolonged antibiotic administration, longer hospital and ICU length of stay, and increased hospital charges, with strongest effects among high-risk patients. To improve value of care for acute care surgery patients, operations should proceed as soon as resuscitation is complete.