Quantifying regulatory limits for multiple stressors in an open and transparent way.

Biodiversity is confronted globally by multiple stressors. Environmental policies must regulate these stressors to achieve targets, but how should that be done when the outcomes of limits on one stressor are contingent on other stressors, about which there is imperfect knowledge? Deriving regulatory frameworks that incorporate these contingencies is an emerging challenge at the science-policy interface. To be fit for implementation, these frameworks need to facilitate the inherently sociopolitical process of policy implementation and account transparently for uncertainty, such that practitioners and other stakeholders can more realistically anticipate the range of potential outcomes to policy. We developed an approach to quantify stressor limits that explicitly accounts for multistressor contingencies. Using an invertebrate data set collected over 30 years throughout New Zealand, we combined ecological and ecotoxicological models to predict biodiversity loss as a function of one stressor, treating multistressor contingencies as a form of uncertainty about the outcomes of limits on that stressor. We transparently accounted for that uncertainty by presenting regulatory limits as bands bounded between optimistic and pessimistic views that practitioners may have about the local context within which limits are applied. In addition to transparently accounting for uncertainties, our framework also leaves room for practitioners to build stakeholder consensus when refining limits to suit different local contexts. A criticism of this open, transparent approach is that it creates too much scope for choosing limits that are lenient on polluters, paralyzing on-the-ground management of multiple stressors, but we demonstrate that this is not necessarily the case.

Cuantificación abierta y transparente de los límites regulatorios para varios estresantes Resumen La biodiversidad enfrenta a múltiples estresantes en todo el mundo. Las políticas ambientales deben regularlos para alcanzar los objetivos fijados, pero ¿cómo hacerlo cuando los resultados de la limitación de un estresante dependen de otros factores, de los que se conoce muy poco? La elaboración de marcos reguladores que incorporen estas contingencias es un reto emergente en la interfaz ciencia­política. Para aplicar estos marcos, se debe facilitar el proceso sociopolítico inherente a la aplicación de políticas y tener en cuenta de forma transparente la incertidumbre, de modo que los profesionales y otras partes interesadas puedan anticipar de forma más realista la variedad de posibles resultados de las políticas. Desarrollamos un método para cuantificar los límites de los estresantes que considera explícitamente las contingencias de múltiples factores. Usamos un conjunto de datos sobre invertebrados recolectados durante 30 años en toda Nueva Zelanda. Después combinamos modelos ecológicos y eco­toxicológicos para predecir la pérdida de biodiversidad en función de un estresante y tratamos las contingencias de múltiples estresantes como una forma de incertidumbre sobre los resultados de los límites de ese mismo estresante. Explicamos esa incertidumbre de forma transparente con los límites normativos como bandas delimitadas entre las opiniones optimistas y pesimistas que los profesionales pueden tener sobre el contexto local en el que se aplican los límites. Además de hacer lo anterior, nuestro marco también deja margen para que los profesionales lleguen a un consenso con las partes interesadas a la hora de perfeccionar los límites para adaptarlos a los distintos contextos locales. Una crítica a este enfoque abierto y transparente crea demasiado margen para elegir límites indulgentes con los contaminadores, paralizando la gestión sobre el terreno de múltiples estresantes, pero demostramos que no es necesariamente así.

Monitoring for the adaptive management of rivers.

Monitoring for adaptive management (AM) involves collection of data with the aim of reducing uncertainty about links between human pressures (e.g. water abstraction from rivers), consequent stressors (e.g. low river flows) and environmental state (e.g. biodiversity). 'Surveillance monitoring' involves documenting trends in state, without the aim of understanding relationships between state, stressors, and pressures. Critics have highlighted that surveillance monitoring dominates monitoring investments but is not supporting AM. Decision-makers continue to be disappointed by monitoring data that are unsuitable for AM, yet designers of monitoring programs tend to make decisions that reinforce rather than reimagine the status quo. We argue that a structured, collaborative approach to objective-setting is required to break the status quo. We collaborated with regional management authorities to develop monitoring objectives and implementation strategies to support AM of New Zealand's rivers. Our collaborative approach discouraged 'failure fearing' and encouraged reimagining 'what could be' as opposed to 'what is.' Seventeen monitoring objectives were identified based on the AM requirements of national policy and regional authorities. Several objectives-particularly those arising from national policy-stretch the limits of what environmental science can currently provide. There were also strong trade-offs among objectives. We offer practical implementation strategies for overcoming the technical challenges of, and reducing trade-offs among, monitoring objectives. These strategies point to a monitoring program that contrasts strongly with one aimed at surveillance. Monitoring for AM is more complex than monitoring for surveillance, so strong leadership is required for successful implementation.

Assigning trend-based conservation status despite high uncertainty.

Estimates of temporal trends in species' occupancy are essential for conservation policy and planning, but limitations to the data and models often result in very high trend uncertainty. A critical source of uncertainty that degrades scientific credibility is that caused by disagreement among studies or models. Modelers are aware of this uncertainty but usually only partially estimate it and communicate it to decision makers. At the same time, there is growing awareness that full disclosure of uncertainty is critical for effective translation of science into policies and plans. But what are the most effective approaches to estimating uncertainty and communicating uncertainty to decision makers? We explored how alternative approaches to estimating and communicating uncertainty of species trends could affect decisions concerning conservation status of freshwater fishes. We used ensemble models to propagate trend uncertainty within and among models and communicated this uncertainty with categorical distributions of trend direction and magnitude. All approaches were designed to fit an established decision-making system used to assign species conservation status by the New Zealand government. Our results showed how approaches that failed to fully disclose uncertainty, while simplifying the information presented, could hamper species conservation or lead to ineffective decisions. We recommend an approach that was recently used effectively to communicate trend uncertainty to a panel responsible for setting the conservation status of New Zealand's freshwater fishes.

Designación del estado de conservación basada en tendencias a pesar de gran incertidumbre Resumen Las estimaciones de las tendencias temporales de la presencia de especies son esenciales para la planeación de la conservación y sus políticas, pero las limitaciones de los datos y los modelos suelen derivar en una incertidumbre muy elevada en cuanto a las tendencias. Los desacuerdos entre los estudios y los modelos son una fuente importante de incertidumbre que contribuye a la degradación de la credibilidad científica. Los modeladores están conscientes de esta incertidumbre, pero casi nunca la estiman o comunican por completo a los responsables de las decisiones. Al mismo tiempo, cada vez hay mayor conciencia de que divulgar esta incertidumbre es importante para que la ciencia se traduzca efectivamente en políticas y planes. ¿Pero cuáles son las estrategias más efectivas para estimar la incertidumbre y comunicarla a los responsables de las decisiones? Exploramos cómo las estrategias alternativas para estimar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea a las tendencias de las especies podría afectar las decisiones con respecto al estado de conservación de los peces de agua dulce. Usamos modelos de conjuntos para propagar la incertidumbre dentro y entre modelos y comunicamos esta incertidumbre con distribuciones categóricas de la dirección y magnitud de la tendencia. Diseñamos todas las estrategias para que se ajustaran a un sistema establecido de toma de decisiones que usa el gobierno de Nueva Zelanda para designar el estado de conservación de las especies. Nuestros resultados mostraron cómo las estrategias que no divulgaron por completo la incertidumbre, mientras simplificaban la información presentada, podrían dificultar la conservación de las especies o llevar a decisiones poco efectivas. Recomendamos una estrategia que se usó recientemente para comunicar eficientemente la incertidumbre de las tendencias a un panel responsable de establecer el estado de conservación de los peces de agua dulce de Nueva Zelanda.

Stage-dependent effects of river flow and temperature regimes on the growth dynamics of an apex predator.

In the world's rivers, alteration of flow is a major driver of biodiversity decline. Global warming is now affecting the thermal and hydrological regimes of rivers, compounding the threat and complicating conservation planning. To inform management under a non-stationary climate, we must improve our understanding of how flow and thermal regimes interact to affect the population dynamics of riverine biota. We used long-term growth biochronologies, spanning 34 years and 400,000 km2 , to model the growth dynamics of a long-lived, apex predator (Murray cod) as a function of factors extrinsic (river discharge; air temperature; sub-catchment) and intrinsic (age; individual) to the population. Annual growth of Murray cod showed significant, curvilinear, life-stage-specific responses to an interaction between annual discharge and temperature. Growth of early juveniles (age 1+ and 2+ years) exhibited a unimodal relationship with annual discharge, peaking near median annual discharge. Growth of late juveniles (3+ to 5+) and adults (>5+) increased with annual discharge, with the rate of increase being particularly high in adults, whose growth peaked during years with flooding. Years with very low annual discharge, as experienced during drought and under high abstraction, suppress growth rates of all Murray cod life-stages. Unimodal relationships between growth and annual temperature were evident across all life stages. Contrary to expectations of the Temperature Size Rule, the annual air temperature at which maximum growth occurred increased with age. The stage-specific response of Murray cod to annual discharge indicates that no single magnitude of annual discharge is optimal for cod populations, adding further weight to the case for maintaining and/or restoring flow variability in riverine ecosystems. With respect to climate change impacts, on balance our results indicate that the primary mechanism by which climate change threatens Murray cod growth is through alteration of river flows, not through warming annual mean temperatures per se.

What do metabolic rates tell us about thermal niches? Mechanisms driving crayfish distributions along an altitudinal gradient.

Humans are rapidly altering thermal landscapes, so a central challenge to organismal ecologists is to better understand the thermal niches of ectotherms. However, there is much disagreement over how we should go about this. Some ecologists assume that a statistical model of abundance as a function of habitat temperature provides a sufficient approximation of the thermal niche, but ecophysiologists have shown that the relationship between fitness and temperature can be complicated, and have stressed the need to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying the response of species to thermal change. Towards this end, we studied the distribution of two crayfishes, Euastacus woiwuru and Euastacus armatus, along an altitudinal gradient, and for both species conducted experiments to determine the temperature-dependence of: (1) aerobic scope (the difference between maximum and basal metabolic rate; purported to be a proxy of the thermal niche); and (2) burst locomotor performance (primarily fuelled using anaerobic pathways). E. woiwuru occupied cooler habitats than E. armatus, but we found no difference in aerobic scope between these species. In contrast, locomotor performance curves differed significantly and strongly between species, with peak locomotor performances of E. woiwuru and E. armatus occurring at ~10 and ~18 °C, respectively. Crayfish from different thermal landscapes may have similar aerobic thermal performance curves but different anaerobic thermal performance curves. Our results support a growing body of literature implying different components of ectotherm fitness have different thermal performance curves, and further challenge our understanding of the ecology and evolution of thermal niches.

Two wild carnivores selectively forage for prey but not amino acids.

In nutritional ecology the intake target is the diet that maximises consumer fitness. A key hypothesis of nutritional ecology is that natural selection has acted upon the behavioural and physiological traits of consumers to result in them Selectively Consuming prey to match the Intake Target (SCIT). SCIT has been documented in some herbivores and omnivores, which experience strong heterogeneity in the nutritional quality of available foods. Although carnivores experience a prey community with a much more homogeneous nutrient composition, SCIT by carnivores has nevertheless been deemed highly likely by some researchers. Here we test for SCIT for micronutrients (amino acids) in two freshwater carnivores: the river blackfish and the two-spined blackfish. Although both blackfishes exhibited non-random consumption of prey from the environment, this resulted in non-random consumption of amino acids in only one species, the river blackfish. Non-random consumption of amino acids by river blackfish was not SCIT, but instead an artefact of habitat-specific foraging. We present hypotheses to explain why wild populations of freshwater carnivores may not exhibit SCIT for amino acids. Our work highlights the need for careful, critical tests of the hypotheses and assumptions of nutritional ecology and its application to wild populations.

Estimation of policy-relevant reference conditions throughout national river networks.

A method for objectively estimating reference states for suspended fine sediment (turbidity) is presented. To be fit for water policy development and implementation the method had to satisfy four requirements: (1) the method must not be dependent on data from minimally-disturbed reference sites; (2) the method must facilitate characterization of reference states throughout heterogeneous river networks, given patchy data; (3) the classification of reference states must be relevant and legitimate to end-users; (4) the method should provide several classifications of reference states at different spatial resolutions allowing selection of the resolution yielding the most parsimonious classification of reference states throughout the network. Implementing the method involves two stages: (1) Development of a river classification based on sediment supply and retention regimes (defining 'turbidity classes') at multiple spatial resolutions. (2) At each resolution, for each turbidity class, estimation of a reference state based on relationships between turbidity and anthropogenic stressors, then objective selection of the resolution yielding the most parsimonious classification of reference states throughout the network. Implementing the method requires a river network GIS and turbidity data within classes, preferably from monitoring sites spanning the domains of the anthropogenic stressor variables used for model-based estimation of reference states.•A method is presented for estimating reference states for suspended fine sediment (turbidity) throughout spatially heterogeneous river networks.•Development of the method was guided by the requirements of policy analysts during reform of water policy in New Zealand.•The method presented was used to develop fine sediment regulatory thresholds of national water policy.

An asymmetric model of heterozygote advantage at major histocompatibility complex genes: degenerate pathogen recognition and intersection advantage.

We characterize the function of MHC molecules by the sets of pathogens that they recognize, which we call their "recognition sets." Two features of the MHC-pathogen interaction may be important to the theory of polymorphism construction at MHC loci: First, there may be a large degree of overlap, or degeneracy, among the recognition sets of MHC molecules. Second, when infected with a pathogen, an MHC genotype may have a higher fitness if that pathogen belongs to the overlapping portion, or intersection, of the two recognition sets of the host, when compared with a genotype that contains that pathogen in only one of its recognition sets. We call this benefit "intersection advantage," gamma, and incorporate it, as well as the degree of recognition degeneracy, m, into a model of heterozygote advantage that utilizes a set-theoretic definition of fitness. Counterintuitively, we show that levels of polymorphism are positively related to m and that a high level of recognition degeneracy is necessary for polymorphism at MHC loci under heterozygote advantage. Increasing gamma reduces levels of polymorphism considerably. Hence, if intersection advantage is significant for MHC genotypes, then heterozygote advantage may not explain the very high levels of polymorphism observed at MHC genes.

Evolution of fitnesses and allele frequencies in a population with spatially heterogeneous selection pressures.

The level of gene flow considerably influences the outcome of evolutionary processes in structured populations with spatial heterogeneity in selection pressures; low levels of gene flow may allow local adaptation whereas high levels of gene flow may oppose this process thus preventing the stable maintenance of polymorphism. Indeed, proportions of fitness space that successfully maintain polymorphism are substantially larger in spatially heterogenous populations with lower to moderate levels of gene flow when compared to single-deme models. Nevertheless, the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the evolutionary construction of polymorphism is less clear. We have investigated the levels of polymorphism resulting from a simple two-deme construction model, which incorporates recurrent mutation as well as selection. We further compared fitness properties, stability of equilibria, and frequency distribution patterns emerging from the construction approach and compared these to the static fitness-space approach. The construction model either promotes or constrains the level of polymorphisms, depending on the levels of gene flow. Comparison of the fitness properties resulting from both approaches shows that they maintain variation in different parts of fitness space. The part of fitness space resulting from construction is more stable than that implied by the ahistoric fitness-space approach. Finally, the equilibrium allele-frequency distribution patterns vary substantially with different levels of gene flow, underlining the importance of correctly sampling spatial structure if these patterns are to be used to estimate population-genetic processes.

Single-locus polymorphism in a heterogeneous two-deme model.

Environmental heterogeneity has long been considered a likely explanation for the high levels of genetic variation found in most natural populations: selection in a spatially heterogeneous environment can maintain more variation. While this theoretical result has been extensively studied in models with limited parameters (e.g., two alleles, fixed gene flow, and particular selection schemes), the effect of spatial heterogeneity is poorly understood for models with a wider range of parameters (e.g., multiple alleles, different levels of gene flow, and more general selection schemes). We have compared the volume of fitness space that maintains variation in a single-deme model to the volume in a two-deme model for multiple alleles, random selection schemes, and various levels of migration. Furthermore, equilibrium allele-frequency vectors were examined to see if particular patterns of variation are more prevalent than first expected. The two-deme model maintains variation for substantially larger volumes of fitness space with lower heterozygote fitness than the single-deme model. This result implies that selection schemes in the two-deme model can have a wider range of fitness patterns while still maintaining variation. The equilibrium allele-frequency patterns emerging from the two-deme model are more variable and strongly influenced by gene flow.

Physiological Trade-Offs Along a Fast-Slow Lifestyle Continuum in Fishes: What Do They Tell Us about Resistance and Resilience to Hypoxia?

It has recently been suggested that general rules of change in ecological communities might be found through the development of functional relationships between species traits and performance. The physiological, behavioural and life-history traits of fishes are often organised along a fast-slow lifestyle continuum (FSLC). With respect to resistance (capacity for population to resist change) and resilience (capacity for population to recover from change) to environmental hypoxia, the literature suggests that traits enhancing resilience may come at the expense of traits promoting resistance to hypoxia; a trade-off may exist. Here I test whether three fishes occupying different positions along the FSLC trade-off resistance and resilience to environmental hypoxia. Static respirometry experiments were used to determine resistance, as measured by critical oxygen tension (Pcrit), and capacity for (RC) and magnitude of metabolic reduction (RM). Swimming respirometry experiments were used to determine aspects of resilience: critical (Ucrit) and optimal swimming speed (Uopt), and optimal cost of transport (COTopt). Results pertaining to metabolic reduction suggest a resistance gradient across species described by the inequality Melanotaenia fluviatilis (fast lifestyle) < Hypseleotris sp. (intermediate lifestyle) < Mogurnda adspersa (slow lifestyle). The Ucrit and COTopt data suggest a resilience gradient described by the reverse inequality, and so the experiments generally indicate that three fishes occupying different positions on the FSLC trade-off resistance and resilience to hypoxia. However, the scope of inferences that can be drawn from an individual study is narrow, and so steps towards general, trait-based rules of fish community change along environmental gradients are discussed.

Temporal dynamics of a local fish community are strongly affected by immigration from the surrounding metacommunity.

A 5-year time series of annual censuses was collected from a large floodplain lake to determine how dynamics of the local fish community were affected by changes in hydrological connectivity with the surrounding metacommunity. The lake was disconnected from the metacommunity for 1 year prior to our study and remained disconnected until 3 months before our third annual census, when a flood reconnected the lake to the metacommunity. We determined how changes in connectivity affected temporal dynamics of (1) local community composition and (2) the population composition, condition, and growth of catfish, to shed light on how immigration of other species might affect local population dynamics. Before reconnection, the community was likely shaped by interactions between the local environment and species traits. The reconnection caused significant immigration and change in community composition and correlated with a significant and abrupt decline in catfish condition, growth, and abundance; effects likely due to the immigration of a competitor with a similar trophic niche: carp. The community was slow to return to its preconnection state, which may be due to dispersal traits of the fishes, and a time-lag in the recovery of the local catfish population following transient intensification of species interactions. The dynamics observed were concordant with the species sorting and mass-effects perspectives of metacommunity theory. Floods cause episodic dispersal in floodplain fish metacommunities, and so, flood frequency determines the relative importance of regional and local processes. Local processes may be particularly important to certain species, but these species may need sufficient time between floods for population increase, before the next flood-induced dispersal episode brings competitors and predators that might cause population decline. Accordingly, species coexistence in these metacommunities may be facilitated by spatiotemporal storage effects, which may in turn be regulated by flood frequency.