Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Opioid-Related Fatal Overdoses: Towards Best Practices for Modeling and Evaluation.

To inform public health interventions, researchers have developed models to forecast opioid-related overdose mortality. These efforts often have limited overlap in the models and datasets employed, presenting challenges to assessing progress in this field. Furthermore, common error-based performance metrics, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), cannot directly assess a key modeling purpose: the identification of priority areas for interventions. We recommend a new intervention-aware performance metric, Percentage of Best Possible Reach (%BPR). We compare metrics for many published models across two distinct geographic settings, Cook County, Illinois and Massachusetts, assuming the budget to intervene in 100 census tracts out of 1000s in each setting. The top-performing models based on RMSE recommend areas that do not always reach the most possible overdose events. In Massachusetts, the top models preferred by %BPR could have reached 18 additional fatal overdoses per year in 2020-2021 compared to models favored by RMSE. In Cook County, the different metrics select similar top-performing models, yet other models with similar RMSE can have significant variation in %BPR. We further find that simple models often perform as well as recently published ones. We release open code and data for others to build upon.

Validation of dried blood spots for capturing hepatitis C virus diversity for genomic surveillance.

Dried blood spots (DBS) have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional venous blood for hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing. However, their capacity to accurately reflect the genetic diversity of HCV remains poorly understood. We employed deep sequencing and advanced phylogenetic analyses on paired plasma and DBS samples from two common subtypes to evaluate the suitability of DBS for genomic surveillance. Results demonstrated that DBS captured equivalent viral diversity compared to plasma with no phylogenetic discordance observed. The ability of DBS to accurately reflect the profile of viral genetic diversity suggests it may be a promising avenue for future surveillance efforts to curb HCV outbreaks.

The optimization of harm reduction services in Massachusetts through the use of GIS: Location-allocation analyses, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: Fatal opioid-related overdoses (OOD) continue to be a leading cause of preventable death across the US. Opioid Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution programs (OENDs) play a vital role in addressing morbidity and mortality associated with opioid use, but access to such services is often inequitable. We utilized a geographic information system (GIS) and spatial analytical methods to inform prioritized placement of OEND services in Massachusetts. METHODS: We obtained addresses for OEND sites from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and address-level fatal OOD data for January 2019 to December 2021 from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics. Using location-allocation approaches in ArcGIS Pro, we created p-median models using locations of existing OEND sites and fatal OOD counts to identify areas that should be prioritized for future OEND placement. Variables included in our analysis were transportation mode, distance from public schools, race and ethnicity, and location feasibility. RESULTS: Three Massachusetts communities - Athol, Dorchester, and Fitchburg - were identified as priority sites for new OEND locations using location-allocation models based on capacity to maximize OOD prevention. Communities identified by the models for OEND placement had similar demographics and overdose rates (42.8 per 100,000 vs 40.1 per 100,000 population) to communities with existing OEND programs but lower naloxone kit distribution rates (2589 doses per 100,000 vs 3704 doses per 100,000). Further models demonstrated differential access based on location and transportation. CONCLUSION: Our analyses identified key areas of Massachusetts with greatest need for OEND services. Further, these results demonstrate the utility of using spatial epidemiological methods to inform public health recommendations.

Evaluation of respondent-driven sampling in seven studies of people who use drugs from rural populations: findings from the Rural Opioid Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prevalence estimates of drug use and its harms are important to characterize burden and develop interventions to reduce negative health outcomes and disparities. Lack of a sampling frame for marginalized/stigmatized populations, including persons who use drugs (PWUD) in rural settings, makes this challenging. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is frequently used to recruit PWUD. However, the validity of RDS-generated population-level prevalence estimates relies on assumptions that should be evaluated. METHODS: RDS was used to recruit PWUD across seven Rural Opioid Initiative studies between 2018-2020. To evaluate RDS assumptions, we computed recruitment homophily and design effects, generated convergence and bottleneck plots, and tested for recruitment and degree differences. We compared sample proportions with three RDS-adjusted estimators (two variations of RDS-I and RDS-II) for five variables of interest (past 30-day use of heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine; past 6-month homelessness; and being positive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody) using linear regression with robust confidence intervals. We compared regression estimates for the associations between HCV positive antibody status and (a) heroin use, (b) fentanyl use, and (c) age using RDS-1 and RDS-II probability weights and no weights using logistic and modified Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Among 2,842 PWUD, median age was 34 years and 43% were female. Most participants (54%) reported opioids as their drug of choice, however regional differences were present (e.g., methamphetamine range: 4-52%). Many recruitment chains were not long enough to achieve sample equilibrium. Recruitment homophily was present for some variables. Differences with respect to recruitment and degree varied across studies. Prevalence estimates varied only slightly with different RDS weighting approaches, most confidence intervals overlapped. Variations in measures of association varied little based on weighting approach. CONCLUSIONS: RDS was a useful recruitment tool for PWUD in rural settings. However, several violations of key RDS assumptions were observed which slightly impacts estimation of proportion although not associations.

Risk factors for persistent fatal opioid-involved overdose clusters in Massachusetts 2011-2021: a spatial statistical analysis with socio-economic, accessibility, and prescription factors.

BACKGROUND: Fatal opioid-involved overdose rates increased precipitously from 5.0 per 100,000 population to 33.5 in Massachusetts between 1999 and 2022. METHODS: We used spatial rate smoothing techniques to identify persistent opioid overdose-involved fatality clusters at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level. Rate smoothing techniques were employed to identify locations of high fatal opioid overdose rates where population counts were low. In Massachusetts, this included areas with both sparse data and low population density. We used Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster analyses with the raw incidence rates, and the Empirical Bayes smoothed rates to identify clusters from 2011 to 2021. We also estimated Empirical Bayes LISA cluster estimates to identify clusters during the same period. We constructed measures of the socio-built environment and potentially inappropriate prescribing using principal components analysis. The resulting measures were used as covariates in Conditional Autoregressive Bayesian models that acknowledge spatial autocorrelation to predict both, if a ZCTA was part of an opioid-involved cluster for fatal overdose rates, as well as the number of times that it was part of a cluster of high incidence rates. RESULTS: LISA clusters for smoothed data were able to identify whether a ZCTA was part of a opioid involved fatality incidence cluster earlier in the study period, when compared to LISA clusters based on raw rates. PCA helped in identifying unique socio-environmental factors, such as minoritized populations and poverty, potentially inappropriate prescribing, access to amenities, and rurality by combining socioeconomic, built environment and prescription variables that were highly correlated with each other. In all models except for those that used raw rates to estimate whether a ZCTA was part of a high fatality cluster, opioid overdose fatality clusters in Massachusetts had high percentages of Black and Hispanic residents, and households experiencing poverty. The models that were fitted on Empirical Bayes LISA identified this phenomenon earlier in the study period than the raw rate LISA. However, all the models identified minoritized populations and poverty as significant factors in predicting the persistence of a ZCTA being part of a high opioid overdose cluster during this time period. CONCLUSION: Conducting spatially robust analyses may help inform policies to identify community-level risks for opioid-involved overdose deaths sooner than depending on raw incidence rates alone. The results can help inform policy makers and planners about locations of persistent risk.

Association of spatial proximity to fixed-site syringe services programs with HCV serostatus and injection equipment sharing practices among people who inject drugs in rural New England, United States.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) disproportionately affects rural communities, where health services are geographically dispersed. It remains unknown whether proximity to a syringe services program (SSP) is associated with HCV infection among rural people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: Data are from a cross-sectional sample of adults who reported injecting drugs in the past 30 days recruited from rural counties in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts (2018-2019). We calculated the road network distance between each participant's address and the nearest fixed-site SSP, categorized as ≤ 1 mile, 1-3 miles, 3-10 miles, and > 10 miles. Staff performed HCV antibody tests and a survey assessed past 30-day injection equipment sharing practices: borrowing used syringes, borrowing other used injection equipment, and backloading. Mixed effects modified Poisson regression estimated prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Analyses were also stratified by means of transportation. RESULTS: Among 330 PWID, 25% lived ≤ 1 mile of the nearest SSP, 17% lived 1-3 miles of an SSP, 12% lived 3-10 miles of an SSP, and 46% lived > 10 miles from an SSP. In multivariable models, compared to PWID who lived within 1 mile of an SSP, those who lived 3 to 10 miles away had a higher prevalence of HCV seropositivity (aPR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.06-1.46), borrowing other used injection equipment (aPR: 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.46), and backloading (aPR: 1.48, 95% CI 1.17-1.88). Similar results were observed for PWID living > 10 miles from an SSP: aPR [HCV]: 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40; aPR [borrowing other used equipment]:1.45, 95% CI 1.29-1.63; and aPR [backloading]: 1.59, 95% CI 1.13-2.24. Associations between living 1 to 3 miles of an SSP and each outcome did not reach statistical significance. When stratified by means of transportation, associations between distance to SSP and each outcome (except borrowing other used injection equipment) were only observed among PWID who traveled by other means (versus traveled by automobile). CONCLUSIONS: Among PWID in rural New England, living farther from a fixed-site SSP was associated with a higher prevalence of HCV seropositivity, borrowing other used injection equipment, and backloading, reinforcing the need to increase SSP accessibility in rural areas. Means of transportation may modify this relationship.

Overdose responses among rural people who use drugs: A multi-regional qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to distribute naloxone have equipped more people with the ability to reverse opioid overdoses but people who use drugs are often reluctant to call 911 due to concerns for legal repercussions. Rural communities face unique challenges in reducing overdose deaths compared to urban communities, including limited access to harm reduction services as well as greater concerns about stigma and privacy. METHODS: The Rural Opioid Initiative was funded in 2017 to better understand the health-related harms associated with the opioid crisis in rural US communities and consists of eight studies spanning ten states and 65 counties. Each study conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with people who use drugs to understand contextual factors influencing drug use and health behaviors. We analyzed qualitative data from seven studies with data available at the time of analysis to understand peer response to overdose. RESULTS: Of the 304 participants interviewed, 55% were men, 70% were white, 80% reported current injection drug use, and 60% reported methamphetamine use. Similar to what has been found in studies focused on urban settings, people who use drugs in rural communities use a range of strategies to reverse overdoses, including non-evidence-based approaches. Several reported that multiple doses of naloxone are needed to reverse overdose. Three themes emerged around the willingness to call 911, including (1) hesitancy to call 911 for fear of legal consequences, (2) negative perceptions or experiences with law enforcement officers, and (3) efforts to obtain medical intervention while avoiding identification/law enforcement involvement. CONCLUSION: People who use drugs employ multiple strategies to attempt overdose reversal, including non-evidence-based approaches. Greater education about the most effective and least harmful strategies is needed. Reluctance to call 911 is rooted in concerns about potential legal consequences as well as perceptions about law enforcement officers, which may be heightened in rural communities where people who use drugs are more easily identified by law enforcement. People who use drugs will go to great strides to connect their peers to needed medical services, suggesting that comprehensive interventions to reduce interactions with law enforcement officers and eliminate legal consequences for reporting overdoses are critical.

Strategies used to reduce harms associated with fentanyl exposure among rural people who use drugs: multi-site qualitative findings from the rural opioid initiative.

AIM: Illicitly manufactured fentanyl and its analogs are the primary drivers of opioid overdose deaths in the United States (U.S.). People who use drugs may be exposed to fentanyl or its analogs intentionally or unintentionally. This study sought to identify strategies used by rural people who use drugs to reduce harms associated with unintentional fentanyl exposure. METHODS: This analysis focused on 349 semi-structured qualitative interviews across 10 states and 58 rural counties in the U.S conducted between 2018 and 2020. Interview guides were collaboratively standardized across sites and included questions about drug use history (including drugs currently used, frequency of use, mode of administration) and questions specific to fentanyl. Deductive coding was used to code all data, then inductive coding of overdose and fentanyl codes was conducted by an interdisciplinary writing team. RESULTS: Participants described being concerned that fentanyl had saturated the drug market, in both stimulant and opioid supplies. Participants utilized strategies including: (1) avoiding drugs that were perceived to contain fentanyl, (2) buying drugs from trusted sources, (3) using fentanyl test strips, 4) using small doses and non-injection routes, (5) using with other people, (6) tasting, smelling, and looking at drugs before use, and (7) carrying and using naloxone. Most people who used drugs used a combination of these strategies as there was an overwhelming fear of fatal overdose. CONCLUSION: People who use drugs living in rural areas of the U.S. are aware that fentanyl is in their drug supply and use several strategies to prevent associated harms, including fatal overdose. Increasing access to harm reduction tools (e.g., fentanyl test strips, naloxone) and services (e.g., community drug checking, syringe services programs, overdose prevention centers) should be prioritized to address the polysubstance-involved overdose crisis. These efforts should target persons who use opioids and other drugs that may contain fentanyl.

Methods for jurisdictional vulnerability assessment of opioid-related outcomes.

In 2020, an estimated 2.7 million people in the US had opioid use disorder, increasing their risk of opioid-related morbidity and mortality. While jurisdictional vulnerability assessments (JVA) of opioid-related outcomes have been conducted previously in the US, there has been no unifying methodological framework. Between 2019 and 2021, we prepared ten JVAs, in collaboration with the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and state public health agencies, to evaluate the risk for opioid-involved overdose (OOD) fatalities and related consequences. Our aim is to share the framework we developed for these ten JVAs, based on our study of the work of Van Handel et al. from 2016, as well as a summary of 18 publicly available assessments of OOD or associated hepatitis C virus infection vulnerability. We developed a three-tiered framework that can be applied by jurisdictions based on the number of units of analysis (e.g., counties, ZIP Codes, census tracts): under 10 (Tier 1), 10 to <50 (Tier 2), and 50 or more (Tier 3). We calculated OOD vulnerability indices based on variable ranks, weighted variable ranks, or multivariable regressions, respectively, for the three tiers. We developed thematic maps, conducted spatial analyses, and visualized service provider locations, drive-time service areas, and service accessibility relative to OOD risk. The methodological framework and examples of our findings from several jurisdictions can be used as a foundation for future assessments and help inform policies to mitigate the impact of the opioid overdose crisis.

Houselessness and syringe service program utilization among people who inject drugs in eight rural areas across the USA: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Research conducted in urban areas has highlighted the impact of housing instability on people who inject drugs (PWID), revealing that it exacerbates vulnerability to drug-related harms and impedes syringe service program (SSP) use. However, few studies have explored the effects of houselessness on SSP use among rural PWID. This study examines the relationship between houselessness and SSP utilization among PWID in eight rural areas across 10 states. METHODS: PWID were recruited using respondent-driven sampling for a cross-sectional survey that queried self-reported drug use and SSP utilization in the prior 30 days, houselessness in the prior 6 months and sociodemographic characteristics. Using binomial logistic regression, we examined the relationship between experiencing houselessness and any SSP use. To assess the relationship between houselessness and the frequency of SSP use, we conducted multinomial logistic regression analyses among participants reporting any past 30-day SSP use. RESULTS: Among 2394 rural PWID, 56.5% had experienced houselessness in the prior 6 months, and 43.5% reported past 30-day SSP use. PWID who had experienced houselessness were more likely to report using an SSP compared to their housed counterparts (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.24 [95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.01, 1.52]). Among those who had used an SSP at least once (n = 972), those who experienced houselessness were just as likely to report SSP use two (aOR = 0.90 [95% CI 0.60, 1.36]) and three times (aOR = 1.18 [95% CI 0.77, 1.98]) compared to once. However, they were less likely to visit an SSP four or more times compared to once in the prior 30 days (aOR = 0.59 [95% CI 0.40, 0.85]). CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that rural PWID who experience houselessness utilize SSPs at similar or higher rates as their housed counterparts. However, housing instability may pose barriers to more frequent SSP use. These findings are significant as people who experience houselessness are at increased risk for drug-related harms and encounter additional challenges when attempting to access SSPs.

Perspectives of opioid prescribers in overdose hotspots and coldspots, Massachusetts, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Prescription opioids (POs) have had a devastating effect on people and public health systems in the U.S. Due to the urgency and complexity of the opioid crisis, there is a need to expand qualitative research on the medical community's perspectives on opioid prescribing practices and the role that prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) have played in mitigating this crisis. METHODS: We conducted qualitative interviews with clinicians (n = 23) across specialties and a range of overdose hotspot and coldspot locations in Massachusetts during 2019. We aimed to capture their perspectives on the opioid crisis, changes in clinical practice, and experiences with opioid prescribing and PDMPs. RESULTS: Respondents consistently recognized the role clinicians played in the opioid crisis and reported reductions in their opioid prescribing, which were motivated by the crisis itself. The limitations of opioids in pain management were frequently discussed. While clinicians appreciated having greater awareness of their opioid prescribing and increased access to patient prescription histories, they also expressed concerns about surveillance of their prescribing and other unintended consequences. We observed that clinicians in opioid prescribing hotspots had more detailed and specific reflections on their experiences with the Massachusetts PDMP, MassPAT. CONCLUSION: Clinician perceptions of the severity of the opioid crisis in Massachusetts and thoughts on their role as prescribers were consistent across specialty, prescribing level, and practice location. Many clinicians in our sample cited use of the PDMP as an influence on their prescribing. Those practicing in opioid overdose hotspots had the most nuanced reflections about the system.

Evaluating Technologies to Identify Fentanyl and Adulterants in Street Drug Paraphernalia: Qualitative Perspectives of Service Providers and Their Clientele.

Background: Opioid overdose deaths continue to present major public health challenges in the U.S. Harm reduction agencies have begun using drug checking technologies to identify adulterants in the local drug supply and reduce overdose risk among people who use drugs (PWUD). Through qualitative and ethnographic methods, we assess the use of portable mass spectrometers at a harm reduction agency in a Northeastern U.S. city. Methods: We conducted participant observation, and on-the-spot qualitative interviews with harm-reduction staff members (n = 10) and their clientele (n = 17) between May 2019 and December 2020. Interviews explored emic views on drug checking (process, logistics, technology), and perceived benefits and challenges. We used thematic content analysis techniques to code and analyze interview transcriptions. Results: Implementation and use of drug checking devices were not free of challenges and malfunctions, often delaying drug checking opportunities and increasing suspicions and distrust among clients. Yet, staff members perceived that when working properly, or in conjunction with an additional device, they offered information about purchased drugs that could empower clients and potentially lead to positive behavior change. Use of these devices also enhanced engagement between harm reduction staff and PWUD, facilitating meaningful conversations around self-advocacy and harm reduction engagement. Conclusion: We report qualitative findings on the experiences and perceptions of drug checking devices among harm reduction staff and PWUD. Our findings indicate that use of this technology has the potential to decrease risk behaviors, expand health promotion services, and help reduce high rates of fentanyl-related overdose.

Who Are the Local Policy Innovators? Cluster Analysis of Municipal Tobacco Control Policies in Massachusetts.

CONTEXT: Tobacco use is a leading cause of preventable death, yet it is challenging to establish public policy to reduce tobacco use. Massachusetts has been a national leader in tobacco control, and its policy-making patterns can be informative to the country. OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with the adoption of tobacco policy within 351 Massachusetts municipalities. DESIGN: We obtained the 2019 Massachusetts municipality-level tobacco control policy information from Massachusetts' Tobacco Automated Fact Sheet Information system and compiled it with data from American Community Survey, Massachusetts Municipal Association, and Massachusetts state government's Web sites. We used k -means clustering method to identify statistical clustering patterns and hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify geographic clustering patterns. We then performed multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with policy clusters. SETTING: Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred fifty-one municipalities in Massachusetts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Policy clusters-groups of municipalities with similar tobacco control policy behaviors. RESULTS: Based on the k -means analyses, we identified 3 clusters in Massachusetts municipal tobacco control policy behaviors: 54% (N = 191) of municipalities were "Policy Leaders" with a high adoption rate of the 6 tobacco control policies; 18% (N = 63) were "Peer-Influenced Actors" focused on tobacco purchase restrictions for individuals younger than 21 years; and 28% (N = 97) were "Policy Non-Actors," with no tobacco control policies in place. Policy Leaders were geographically clustered in larger cities and the MetroWest region. Policy Non-Actors were clustered in rural areas of Western and Central Massachusetts. Larger municipal population size, higher municipal tax income, and higher percentages of residents voting Democratic were associated with higher policy adoption activities. CONCLUSIONS: Local variation in the adoption of tobacco policies may exacerbate inequities in tobacco use and population health. Opportunities remain to implement additional tobacco control regulations at the local level to promote public health.

Medicaid Expansion and Change in Federally Qualified Health Center Accessibility From 2008 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act expanded health coverage for low-income residents through Medicaid expansion and increased funding for Health Center Program New Access Points from 2009 to 2015, improving federally qualified health center (FQHC) accessibility. The extent to which these provisions progressed synergistically as intended when states could opt out of Medicaid expansion is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare change in FQHC accessibility among census tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states. RESEARCH DESIGN: Tract-level FQHC accessibility scores for 2008 and 2016 were estimated applying the 2-step floating catchment area method to American Community Survey and Health Resources and Services Administration data. Multivariable linear regression compared changes in FQHC accessibility between tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states, adjusting for sociodemographic and health system factors and accounting for state-level clustering. SUBJECTS: In total, 7058 census tracts across 10 states. RESULTS: FQHC accessibility increased comparably among tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states (coef: 0.3; 95% CI: -0.3, 0.8; P -value: 0.36). FQHC accessibility increased more in tracts with higher poverty and uninsured rates, and those with lower proportions of non-English speakers and Black or African American residents. CONCLUSION: Similar gains in FQHC accessibility across Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states indicate improvements progressed independently from Medicaid expansion, rather than synergistically as expected. Accessibility increases appeared consistent with HRSA's goal to improve access for individuals experiencing economic barriers to health care but not for those experiencing cultural or language barriers to health care.

Assessing equity in health, wealth, and civic engagement: a nationally representative survey, United States, 2020.

BACKGROUND: The principle of equity is fundamental to many current debates about social issues and plays an important role in community and individual health. Traditional research has focused on singular dimensions of equity (e.g., wealth), and often lacks a comprehensive perspective. The goal of this study was to assess relationships among three domains of equity, health, wealth, and civic engagement, in a nationally representative sample of U.S. residents. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework to guide our inquiry of equity across health, wealth, and civic engagement constructs to generate a broad but nuanced understanding of equity. Through Ipsos' KnowledgePanel service, we conducted a cross-sectional, online survey between May 29-June 20, 2020 designed to be representative of the adult U.S. POPULATION: Based on our conceptual framework, we assessed the population-weighted prevalence of health outcomes and behaviors, as well as measures of wealth and civic engagement. We linked individual-level data with population-level environmental and social context variables. Using structural equation modeling, we developed latent constructs for wealth and civic engagement, to assess associations with a measured health variable. RESULTS: We found that the distribution of sociodemographic, health, and wealth measures in our sample (n = 1267) were comparable to those from other national surveys. Our quantitative illustration of the relationships among the domains of health, wealth, and civic engagement provided support for the interrelationships of constructs within our conceptual model. Latent constructs for wealth and civic engagement were significantly correlated (p = 0.013), and both constructs were used to predict self-reported health. Beta coefficients for all indicators of health, wealth, and civic engagement had the expected direction (positive or negative associations). CONCLUSION: Through development and assessment of our comprehensive equity framework, we found significant associations among key equity domains. Our conceptual framework and results can serve as a guide for future equity research, encouraging a more thorough assessment of equity.

Associations among political voting preference, high-risk health status, and preventative behaviors for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We investigate the relationships among political preferences, risk for COVID-19 complications, and complying with preventative behaviors, such as social distancing, quarantine, and vaccination, as they remain incompletely understood. Since those with underlying health conditions have the highest mortality risk, prevention strategies targeting them and their caretakers effectively can save lives. Understanding caretakers' adherence is also crucial as their behavior affects the probability of transmission and quality of care, but is understudied. Examining the degree to which adherence to prevention measures within these populations is affected by their health status vs. voting preference, a key predictor of preventative behavior in the U. S, is imperative to improve targeted public health messaging. Knowledge of these associations could inform targeted COVID-19 campaigns to improve adherence for those at risk for severe consequences. METHODS: We conducted a nationally-representative online survey of U.S. adults between May-June 2020 assessing: 1) attempts to socially-distance; 2) willingness/ability to self-quarantine; and 3) intention of COVID-19 vaccination. We estimated the relationships between 1) political preferences 2) underlying health status, and 3) being a caretaker to someone with high-risk conditions and each dependent variable. Sensitivity analyses examined the associations between political preference and dependent variables among participants with high-risk conditions and/or obesity. RESULTS: Among 908 participants, 75.2% engaged in social-distancing, 94.4% were willing/able to self-quarantine, and 60.1% intended to get vaccinated. Compared to participants intending to vote for Biden, participants who intended to vote for Trump were significantly less likely to have tried to socially-distance, self-quarantine, or intend to be vaccinated. We observed the same trends in analyses restricted to participants with underlying health conditions and their caretakers Underlying health status was independently associated with social distancing among individuals with obesity and another high-risk condition, but not other outcomes. CONCLUSION: Engagement in preventative behavior is associated with political voting preference and not individual risk of severe COVID-19 or being a caretaker of a high-risk individual. Community based strategies and public health messaging should be tailored to individuals based on political preferences especially for those with obesity and other high-risk conditions. Efforts must be accompanied by broader public policy.

Spatial and Nonspatial Factors Associated with Access to Medication for Opioid Use Disorder among Pregnant Women in Massachusetts.

INTRODUCTION: In Massachusetts, one-third of pregnant women with opioid use disorder (OUD) do not receive medications for OUD (MOUD), such as buprenorphine and methadone. Research has demonstrated that broadly, access to medications differs by location and by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of communities, but a comprehensive understanding at the micro-level is lacking. This study aims to identify and characterize access to MOUD treatment among pregnant women in Massachusetts. METHODS: We used enhanced two-step floating catchment area analyses, which incorporated supply and demand measures, as well as local drive-time, to determine spatial accessibility to MOUD. We used four publicly available data sources to calculate geographic accessibility to MOUD. We then merged the resulting accessibility indices with data from the American Community Survey to statistically analyze ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) characteristics that were associated with geographic accessibility to MOUD among the study population. RESULTS: We calculated access to 258 opioid (methadone and/or buprenorphine) treatment programs and 2,585 buprenorphine-waivered prescribers among 74,969 pregnant women during the period 2016-2020 in 448 ZCTAs (N = 537 ZCTAs). ZCTAs with lower accessibility to both types of MOUD were concentrated in Western Massachusetts. Central Massachusetts had poor accessibility to buprenorphine providers. Accessibility was greater in ZCTAs that were nonmetropolitan, that had higher minority status and langauge vulnerability, and that had less extreme concentration of privilege. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to improve MOUD access overall, and to enhance access to both types of medications, so pregnant women can choose the one that works best for them.

Opioid-Involved Overdose Vulnerability in Wyoming: Measuring Risk in a Rural Environment.

BACKGROUND: Between 2009 and 2019 opioid-involved fatal overdose rates increased by 45% and the average opioid dispensing rate in Wyoming was higher than the national average. The opioid crisis is shaped by a complex set of socioeconomic, geopolitical, and health-related variables. We conducted a vulnerability assessment to identify Wyoming counties at higher risk of opioid-related harm, factors associated with this risk, and areas in need of overdose treatment access to inform priority responses. METHODS: We compiled 2016 to 2018 county-level aggregated and de-identified data. We created risk maps and ran spatial analyses in a geographic information system to depict the spatial distribution of overdose-related measures. We used addresses of opioid treatment programs and buprenorphine providers to develop drive-time maps and ran 2-step floating catchment area analyses to measure accessibility to treatment. We used a straightforward and replicable weighted ranks approach to calculate final county vulnerability scores and rankings from most to least vulnerable. FINDINGS: We found Hot Springs, Carbon, Natrona, Fremont, and Sweetwater Counties to be most vulnerable to opioid-involved overdose fatalities. Opioid prescribing rates were highest in Hot Springs County (97 per 100 persons), almost two times the national average (51 per 100 persons). Statewide, there were over 90 buprenorphine-waivered providers, however accessibility to these clinicians was limited to urban centers. Most individuals lived further than a four-hour round-trip drive to the nearest methadone treatment program. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying Wyoming counties with high opioid overdose vulnerabilities and limited access to overdose treatment can inform public health and harm reduction responses.

Understanding opioid overdose risk and response preparedness among people who use cocaine and other drugs: Mixed-methods findings from a large, multi-city study.

Background: Fatal overdoses involving cocaine (powdered or crack) and fentanyl have increased nationally and in Massachusetts. It is unclear how overdose risk and preparedness to respond to an overdose differs by patterns of cocaine and opioid use. Methods: From 2017 to 2019, we conducted a nine-community mixed-methods study of Massachusetts residents who use drugs. Using survey data from 465 participants with past-month cocaine and/or opioid use, we examined global differences (p < 0.05) in overdose risk and response preparedness by patterns of cocaine and opioid use. Qualitative interviews (n = 172) contextualized survey findings. Results: The majority of the sample (66%) used cocaine and opioids in the past month; 18.9% used opioids alone; 9.2% used cocaine and had no opioid use history; and 6.2% used cocaine and had an opioid use history. Relative to those with a current/past history of opioid use, significantly fewer of those with no opioid use history were aware of fentanyl in the drug supply, carried naloxone, and had received naloxone training. Qualitative interviews documented how people who use cocaine and have no history of opioid use are largely unprepared to recognize and respond to an overdose. Conclusions: Public health efforts are needed to increase fentanyl awareness and overdose prevention preparedness among people primarily using cocaine.

A Novel Imputation Approach for Sharing Protected Public Health Data.

Objectives. To develop an imputation method to produce estimates for suppressed values within a shared government administrative data set to facilitate accurate data sharing and statistical and spatial analyses. Methods. We developed an imputation approach that incorporated known features of suppressed Massachusetts surveillance data from 2011 to 2017 to predict missing values more precisely. Our methods for 35 de-identified opioid prescription data sets combined modified previous or next substitution followed by mean imputation and a count adjustment to estimate suppressed values before sharing. We modeled 4 methods and compared the results to baseline mean imputation. Results. We assessed performance by comparing root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and proportional variance between imputed and suppressed values. Our method outperformed mean imputation; we retained 46% of the suppressed value's proportional variance with better precision (22% lower RMSE and 26% lower MAE) than simple mean imputation. Conclusions. Our easy-to-implement imputation technique largely overcomes the adverse effects of low count value suppression with superior results to simple mean imputation. This novel method is generalizable to researchers sharing protected public health surveillance data. (Am J Public Health. 2021; 111(10):1830-1838. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306432).