Aeolus winds impact on volcanic ash early warning systems for aviation.

Forecasting volcanic ash atmospheric pathways is of utmost importance for aviation. Volcanic ash can interfere with aircraft navigational instruments and can damage engine parts. Early warning systems, activated after volcanic eruptions can alleviate the impacts on aviation by providing forecasts of the volcanic ash plume dispersion. The quality of these short-term forecasts is subject to the accuracy of the meteorological wind fields used for the initialization of regional models. Here, we use wind profiling data from the first high spectral resolution lidar in space, Aeolus, to examine the impact of measured wind fields on regional NWP and subsequent volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, focusing on the case of Etna's eruption on March 2021. The results from this case study demonstrate a significant improvement of the volcanic ash simulation when using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields, with differences in wind speed reaching up to 8 m/s when compared to the control run. When comparing the volcanic ash forecast profiles with downwind surface-based aerosol lidar observations, the modeled field is consistent with the measurements only when Aeolus winds are assimilated. This result clearly demonstrates the potential of Aeolus and highlights the necessity of future wind profiling satellite missions for improving volcanic ash forecasting and hence aviation safety.

Particle backscatter and extinction profiling with the spaceborne high-spectral-resolution Doppler lidar ALADIN: methodology and simulations.

The European Space Agency will launch the Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) for global wind profile observations in the near future. The potential of ALADIN to measure the optical properties of aerosol and cirrus, as well, is investigated based on simulations. A comprehensive data analysis scheme is developed that includes (a) the correction of Doppler-shifted particle backscatter interference in the molecular backscatter channels (cross-talk effect), (b) a procedure that allows us to check the quality of the cross-talk correction, and (c) the procedures for the independent retrieval of profiles of the volume extinction and backscatter coefficients of particles considering the height-dependent ALADIN signal resolution. The error analysis shows that the particle backscatter and extinction coefficients, and the corresponding extinction-to-backscatter ratio (lidar ratio), can be obtained with an overall (systematic+statistical) error of 10%-15%, 15%-30%, and 20%-35%, respectively, in tropospheric aerosol and dust layers with extinction values from 50 to 200 Mm(-1); 700-shot averaging (50 km horizontal resolution) is required. Vertical signal resolution is 500 m in the lower troposphere and 1000 m in the free troposphere. In cirrus characterized by extinction coefficients of 200 Mm(-1) and an optical depth of >0.2, backscatter coefficients, optical depth, and column lidar ratios can be obtained with 25%-35% relative uncertainty and a horizontal resolution of 10 km (140 shots). In the stratosphere, only the backscatter coefficient of aerosol layers and polar stratospheric clouds can be retrieved with an acceptable uncertainty of 15%-30%. Vertical resolution is 2000 m.