Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking. METHODS: We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined. RESULTS: As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland. CONCLUSIONS: The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.

Mapping the distribution of Nipah virus infections: a geospatial modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Nipah virus is a zoonotic paramyxovirus responsible for disease outbreaks with high fatality rates in south and southeast Asia. However, knowledge of the potential geographical extent and risk patterns of the virus is poor. We aimed to establish an integrated spatiotemporal and phylogenetic database of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals across south and southeast Asia. METHODS: In this geospatial modelling analysis, we developed an integrated database containing information on the distribution of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals from 1998 to 2021. We conducted phylodynamic analysis to examine the evolution and migration pathways of the virus and meta-analyses to estimate the adjusted case-fatality rate. We used two boosted regression tree models to identify the potential ecological drivers of Nipah virus occurrences in spillover events and endemic areas, and mapped potential risk areas for Nipah virus endemicity. FINDINGS: 749 people and eight bat species across nine countries were documented as being infected with Nipah virus. On the basis of 66 complete genomes of the virus, we identified two clades-the Bangladesh clade and the Malaysia clade-with the time of the most recent common ancestor estimated to be 1863. Adjusted case-fatality rates varied widely between countries and were higher for the Bangladesh clade than for the Malaysia clade. Multivariable meta-regression analysis revealed significant relationships between case-fatality rate estimates and viral clade (p=0·0021), source country (p=0·016), proportion of male patients (p=0·036), and travel time to health-care facilities (p=0·036). Temperature-related bioclimate variables and the probability of occurrence of Pteropus medius were important contributors to both the spillover and the endemic infection models. INTERPRETATION: The suitable niches for Nipah virus are more extensive than previously reported. Future surveillance efforts should focus on high-risk areas informed by updated projections. Specifically, intensifying zoonotic surveillance efforts, enhancing laboratory testing capacity, and implementing public health education in projected high-risk areas where no human cases have been reported to date will be crucial. Additionally, strengthening wildlife surveillance and investigating potential modes of transmission in regions with documented human cases is needed. FUNDING: The Key Research and Development Program of China.

Mapping the global distribution of spotted fever group rickettsiae: a systematic review with modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging and re-emerging spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsioses are increasingly recognised worldwide as threats to public health, yet their global distribution and associated risk burden remain poorly understood. METHODS: In this systematic review and modelling analysis, we mapped global distributions of all confirmed species of SFG rickettsiae (SFGR) detected in animals, vectors, and human beings, using data collected from the literature. We assessed ecological drivers for the distributions of 17 major SFGR species using machine learning algorithms, and mapped model-predicted risks. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1906, and March 31, 2021, we found reports of 48 confirmed SFGR species, with 66 133 human infections worldwide, with a large spatial variation across the continents. 198 vector species were detected to carry 47 of these Rickettsia spp. (146 ticks, 24 fleas, 15 mosquitoes, six mites, four lice, two keds, and one bug). Based on model-predicted global distributions of the 17 major SFGR species, we found five spatial clusters aggregated by ecological similarity in terms of environmental and ecoclimatic features. Rickettsia felis is the leading SFGR species to which 4·4 billion (95% CI 3·8-5·3 billion) people are at risk, followed by Rickettsia conorii (3·7 billion) and Rickettsia africae (3·6 billion). INTERPRETATION: The wide spectrum of vectors is contributing substantially to the increasing incidence of SFGR infections among humans. Awareness, diagnosis, and surveillance of SFGR infections should be improved in the high-risk regions, especially in areas where human infections are underreported. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China.

Comparative study on epidemiological and etiological characteristics of patients with acute diarrhea with febrile or non-febrile symptoms in China.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhea with fever can potentially represent a more severe form of the disease compared to non-febrile diarrhea. This study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and enteric pathogen composition of febrile-diarrheal patients, and to explore factors including pathogens associated with fever by age group. METHODS: A nationwide surveillance study of acute diarrheal patients of all ages was conducted in 217 sentinel hospitals from 31 provinces (autonomous regions or municipalities) in China between 2011 and 2020. Seventeen diarrhea-related pathogens, including seven viruses and ten bacteria, were investigated and their association with occurrence of fever symptoms was assessed using multivariate logistic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 146,296 patients with acute diarrhea (18.6% with fever) were tested. Th diarrheal children below 5 years had the highest frequency of fever (24.2%), and related to significantly higher prevalence of viral enteropathogens (40.2%) as compared with other age groups (P < 0.001). Within each age group, the febrile-diarrheal patients were associated with a significantly higher prevalence of bacterial pathogens than afebrile-diarrheal patients (all P < 0.01). There was discrepancy when each pathogen was compared, i.e., nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) was overrepresented in febrile vs non-febrile patients of all age groups, while the febrile vs non-febrile difference for diarrheagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) was only significant for adult groups. The multivariate analysis revealed significant association between fever and infection with rotavirus A among children [odds ratio (OR) = 1.60], for DEC in adult groups (OR = 1.64), for NTS in both children (OR = 2.95) and adults (OR = 3.59). CONCLUSIONS: There are significant discrepancy of the infected enteric pathogens in patients with acute diarrhea with fever between age groups, and it is valuable for priority detection of NTS and rotavirus A in patients with children < 5 years old and NTS and DEC in adult patients. The results may be useful in identifying dominant pathogen candidates for the application of diagnostic assays and prevention control.

Mapping the viruses belonging to the order Bunyavirales in China.

BACKGROUND: Viral pathogens belonging to the order Bunyavirales pose a continuous background threat to global health, but the fact remains that they are usually neglected and their distribution is still ambiguously known. We aim to map the geographical distribution of Bunyavirales viruses and assess the environmental suitability and transmission risk of major Bunyavirales viruses in China. METHODS: We assembled data on all Bunyavirales viruses detected in humans, animals and vectors from multiple sources, to update distribution maps of them across China. In addition, we predicted environmental suitability at the 10 km × 10 km pixel level by applying boosted regression tree models for two important Bunyavirales viruses, including Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). Based on model-projected risks and air travel volume, the imported risk of RVFV was also estimated from its endemic areas to the cities in China. RESULTS: Here we mapped all 89 species of Bunyavirales viruses in China from January 1951 to June 2021. Nineteen viruses were shown to infect humans, including ten species first reported as human infections. A total of 447,848 cases infected with Bunyavirales viruses were reported, and hantaviruses, Dabie bandavirus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) had the severest disease burden. Model-predicted maps showed that Xinjiang and southwestern Yunnan had the highest environmental suitability for CCHFV occurrence, mainly related to Hyalomma asiaticum presence, while southern China had the highest environmental suitability for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission all year round, mainly driven by livestock density, mean precipitation in the previous month. We further identified three cities including Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai, with the highest imported risk of RVFV potentially from Egypt, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: A variety of Bunyavirales viruses are widely distributed in China, and the two major neglected Bunyavirales viruses including CCHFV and RVFV, both have the potential for outbreaks in local areas of China. Our study can help to promote the understanding of risk distribution and disease burden of Bunyavirales viruses in China, and the risk maps of CCHFV and RVFV occurrence are crucial to the targeted surveillance and control, especially in seasons and locations at high risk.

Human infections with neglected vector-borne pathogens in China: A systematic review.

Background: Emerging vector-borne pathogens (VBPs) pose a continuous background threat to the global health. Knowledge of the occurrence, distributions and epidemiological characteristics of VBP are lacking in many countries. Outbreaks of novel VBP are of increasing global interest including those arising in China. Methods: A systematic review of published literature was undertaken to characterize the spectrum of VBPs causing human illness in China. We searched five databases for VBP-related articles in English and Chinese published between January 1980 and June 2021, that excluded those listed in the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System of China. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021259540. Findings: A total of 906 articles meeting the selection criteria were included in this study. A total of 44,809 human infections with 82 species of VBPs including 40 viruses, 33 bacteria (20 Rickettsiales bacteria, eight Spirochaetales bacteria, and five other bacteria) and nine parasites, were identified in China. Rickettsiales bacteria were the most common and widely distributed pathogens with 18,042 cases reported in 33 provinces by 347 reviewed articles, followed by Spirochaetales bacteria with 15,745 cases in 32 provinces (299 articles), viruses with 8455 cases in 30 provinces (139 articles), other bacteria with 2053 cases in 19 provinces (65 articles), parasites with 514 cases in 17 provinces (44 articles), and multiple pathogens with 3626 cases in 14 provinces (23 articles). Coxiella burnetii, Bartonella henselae and Rickettsia sibirica were the most frequently reported pathogens. A total of 18 new pathogens were reported in China during this period (these also represented their first identification globally). Based on 419 articles with clinical information, a meta-analysis revealed that flu-like illness was the most common manifestation among infections with VBPs. Interpretation: This review helps improve the understanding of VBPs in China, demonstrating the need to consider a wider surveillance of VBPs in many different settings, thus helping to inform future research and surveillance efforts. Funding: Natural Science Foundation of China.