Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

BACKGROUND: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS: In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Cardiovascular mortality attributable to dietary risk factors in 51 countries in the WHO European Region from 1990 to 2016: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

This study was performed to highlight the relationship between single dietary risk factors and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the WHO European Region. We used the comparative risk assessment framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate CVD mortality attributable to diet; comprising eleven forms of CVDs, twelve food and nutrient groups and 27 risk-outcome pairs in four GBD regions including 51 countries by age and sex between 1990 and 2016. In 2016, dietary risks were associated with 2.1 million cardiovascular deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 1.7-2.5 million) in the WHO European Region, accounting for 22.4% of all deaths and 49.2% of CVD deaths. In terms of single dietary risks, a diet low in whole grains accounted for approximately 429,000 deaths, followed by a diet low in nuts and seeds (341,000 deaths), a diet low in fruits (262,000 deaths), a diet high in sodium (251,000 deaths), and a diet low in omega-3 fatty acids (227,000 deaths). Thus, with an optimized, i.e. balanced diet, roughly one in every five premature deaths could be prevented. Although age-standardized death rates decreased over the last 26 years, the absolute number of diet-related cardiovascular deaths increased between 2010 and 2016 by 25,600 deaths in Western Europe and by 4300 deaths in Central Asia. In 2016, approximately 601,000 deaths (28.6% of all diet-related CVD deaths) occurred among adults younger than 70 years. Compared to other behavioural risk factors, a balanced diet is a potential key lever to avoid premature deaths.

Mobile telephone follow-up assessment of postdischarge death and disability due to trauma in Cameroon: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: In Cameroon, long-term outcomes after discharge from trauma are largely unknown, limiting our ability to identify opportunities to reduce the burden of injury. In this study, we evaluated injury-related death and disability in Cameroonian trauma patients over a 6-month period after hospital discharge. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Four hospitals in the Littoral and Southwest regions of Cameroon. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1914 patients entered the study, 1304 were successfully contacted. Inclusion criteria were patients discharged after being treated for traumatic injury at each of four participating hospitals during a 20-month period. Those who did not possess a cellular phone or were unable to provide a phone number were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) was administered to trauma patients at 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months post discharge. Median GOSE scores for each timepoint were compared and regression analyses were performed to determine associations with death and disability. RESULTS: Of 71 deaths recorded, 90% occurred by 2 weeks post discharge. At 6 months, 22% of patients still experienced severe disability. Median (IQR) GOSE scores at the four timepoints were 4 (3-7), 5 (4-8), 7 (4-8) and 7 (5-8), respectively, (p<0.01). Older age was associated with greater odds of postdischarge disability (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.41) and mortality (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.52 to 3.04), while higher education was associated with decreased odds of disability (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.73) and mortality (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.47). Open fractures (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.38 to 2.18) and closed fractures (OR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.42 to 2.36) were associated with greater postdischarge disability, while higher Injury Severity Score (OR: 2.44, 95% CI: 2.13 to 2.79) and neurological injuries (OR: 4.40, 95% CI: 3.25 to 5.96) were associated with greater odds of postdischarge mortality. CONCLUSION: Mobile follow-up data show significant morbidity and mortality, particularly for orthopaedic and neurologic injuries, up to 6 months following trauma discharge. These results highlight the need for reliable follow-up systems in Cameroon.

Epidemiology of injured patients in rural Uganda: A prospective trauma registry's first 1000 days.

Trauma is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Data characterizing the burden of injury in rural Uganda is limited. Hospital-based trauma registries are a critical tool in illustrating injury patterns and clinical outcomes. This study aims to characterize the traumatic injuries presenting to Soroti Regional Referral Hospital (SRRH) in order to identify opportunities for quality improvement and policy development. From October 2016 to July 2019, we prospectively captured data on injured patients using a locally designed, context-relevant trauma registry instrument. Information regarding patient demographics, injury characteristics, clinical information, and treatment outcomes were recorded. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted. A total of 4109 injured patients were treated during the study period. Median age was 26 years and 63% were male. Students (33%) and peasant farmers (31%) were the most affected occupations. Falls (36%) and road traffic injuries (RTIs, 35%) were the leading causes of injury. Nearly two-thirds of RTIs were motorcycle-related and only 16% involved a pedestrian. Over half (53%) of all patients had a fracture or a sprain. Suffering a burn or a head injury were significant predictors of mortality. The number of trauma patients enrolled in the study declined by five-fold when comparing the final six months and initial six months of the study. Implementation of a context-appropriate trauma registry in a resource-constrained setting is feasible. In rural Uganda, there is a significant need for injury prevention efforts to protect vulnerable populations such as children and women from trauma on roads and in the home. Orthopedic and neurosurgical care are important targets for the strengthening of health systems. The comprehensive data provided by a trauma registry will continue to inform such efforts and provide a way to monitor their progress moving forward.

The Global Nutrient Database: availability of macronutrients and micronutrients in 195 countries from 1980 to 2013.

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the supply and consumption of nutrients at the country level. To address this data gap, we aimed to create a database that provides information on availability (ie, supply) of 156 nutrients across 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2013. METHODS: We matched 394 food and agricultural commodities from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Supply and Utilization Accounts (SUAs) to food items in the United States Department of Agriculture Food Composition Database and obtained data on nutrient composition of the SUAs' food items. Then, after adjusting for inedible portion of each food item, we added the contributions of individual food items to the availability of each nutrient and estimated the national availability of macronutrients and micronutrients in each year. We validated our estimates by comparing our results with those of national nutrition surveys from three countries (the USA, South Korea, and Ecuador). Using dietary consumption data from the Global Burden of Disease study and two popular machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and XGBoost [extreme gradient boosting]), we developed predictive models to estimate the consumption of each nutrient based on their national availability. FINDINGS: Globally 2710 kcal (95% UI 2660-2770) were available per person per day in 2013. Carbohydrates were the major contributor to energy availability (70·5%), followed by fats (17·4%), and protein (10·5%). The energy availability and the contribution of macronutrients to total energy widely varied across levels of development. Countries at the higher level of development (high Socio-demographic Index countries) had more energy available per person per day (3270 kcal, 3220-3310); greater contributions from fats (26·0%) and proteins (11·9%) to total energy availability; and lower contributions from carbohydrate (54·8%). During 1980-2013, energy availability and the contributions of protein and fats to energy availability have increased globally and across levels of development while the contribution of carbohydrates to total energy availability has decreased. The supply of the micronutrients has also increased during the same period globally and across levels of development. Our validation analysis showed that, after accounting for waste at the retail and household level, our estimates of macronutrient availability were very close to the consumption data in nationally representative surveys. Our machine-learning models closely predicted the observed intake of nutrients with the out-of-sample correlation of greater than 0·8 between predicted and observed intake for the nutrients included in the analysis. INTERPRETATION: Our global nutrient database provides a picture of the supply of various nutrients at the country level and can be useful to assess the performance of national food systems in addressing the nutritional needs of their population. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.