Coastal eutrophication drives acidification, oxygen loss, and ecosystem change in a major oceanic upwelling system.

Global change is leading to warming, acidification, and oxygen loss in the ocean. In the Southern California Bight, an eastern boundary upwelling system, these stressors are exacerbated by the localized discharge of anthropogenically enhanced nutrients from a coastal population of 23 million people. Here, we use simulations with a high-resolution, physical-biogeochemical model to quantify the link between terrestrial and atmospheric nutrients, organic matter, and carbon inputs and biogeochemical change in the coastal waters of the Southern California Bight. The model is forced by large-scale climatic drivers and a reconstruction of local inputs via rivers, wastewater outfalls, and atmospheric deposition; it captures the fine scales of ocean circulation along the shelf; and it is validated against a large collection of physical and biogeochemical observations. Local land-based and atmospheric inputs, enhanced by anthropogenic sources, drive a 79% increase in phytoplankton biomass, a 23% increase in primary production, and a nearly 44% increase in subsurface respiration rates along the coast in summer, reshaping the biogeochemistry of the Southern California Bight. Seasonal reductions in subsurface oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state, by up to 50 mmol m-3, 0.09, and 0.47, respectively, rival or exceed the global open-ocean oxygen loss and acidification since the preindustrial period. The biological effects of these changes on local fisheries, proliferation of harmful algal blooms, water clarity, and submerged aquatic vegetation have yet to be fully explored.

How much is too much? Identifying benchmarks of adverse effects of macroalgae on the macrofauna in intertidal flats.

Eutrophication, defined as the accumulation of organic matter typically in response to anthropogenically enhanced nutrient inputs, often takes the form of macroalgal blooms in shallow estuaries and causes a cascade of adverse ecosystem effects. Confidence in the use of macroalgae as an indicator of eutrophication in estuaries is limited by the lack of quantitative data on thresholds of adverse effects. Field experiments can provide "benchmarks" of no effect or adverse effects that can be used to validate thresholds derived statistically from field data. To determine a benchmark of adverse effects of macroalgal abundance on macrobenthic faunal communities in intertidal flats, experiments were conducted in two sites in Bodega Harbor (BOD) and two sites in Upper Newport Bay (UNB), California, USA. At each site, 24 cages maintained six treatments of macroalgae for eight weeks, with mat depths of 0, 1.0, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 5.0 cm composed mostly of bloom-forming green macroalgae in the genus Ulva. Every two weeks, cores of sediment (10 cm deep) were collected, and macrofauna were quantified. Mats 1 cm deep, equivalent to a biomass of 110-120 g dry mass (dm)/m2 or 840-930 g wet mass/m2, resulted in the reduction of macrofaunal abundance by at least 67% and species richness by at least 19% within two weeks at three of four sites. Loss was attributed to the decline of key functional groups. Surface-deposit feeders were eliminated from one site at BOD within four weeks and at one site in UNB within six weeks, while 1-cm mats negatively affected suspension feeders and herbivores in the second site at BOD. In contrast, the other site at UNB was not affected by macroalgal treatment, likely due to an initial community composed of a high proportion of subsurface-deposit feeders tolerant of stressful environments. Macroalgal abundances as low as 110-120 g dm/m2 had significant and rapid negative effects on macrobenthic invertebrates, providing a clear benchmark of adverse effects of macroalgal blooms on macrofaunal abundance and community structure, two indicators of ecosystem health. This information can inform the establishment of appropriate metrics for macroalgal abundance in eutrophic estuaries.

Cross-shore transport and eddies promote large scale response to urban eutrophication.

A key control on the magnitude of coastal eutrophication is the degree to which currents quickly transport nitrogen derived from human sources away from the coast to the open ocean before eutrophication develops. In the Southern California Bight (SCB), an upwelling-dominated eastern boundary current ecosystem, anthropogenic nitrogen inputs increase algal productivity and cause subsurface acidification and oxygen (O 2 ) loss along the coast. However, the extent of anthropogenic influence on eutrophication beyond the coastal band, and the physical transport mechanisms and biogeochemical processes responsible for these effects are still poorly understood. Here, we use a submesoscale-resolving numerical model to document the detailed biogeochemical mass balance of nitrogen, carbon and oxygen, their physical transport, and effects on offshore habitats. Despite management of terrestrial nutrients that has occurred in the region over the last 20 years, coastal eutrophication continues to persist. The input of anthropogenic nutrients promote an increase in productivity, remineralization and respiration offshore, with recurrent O 2 loss and pH decline in a region located 30-90 km from the mainland. During 2013 to 2017, the spatially averaged 5-year loss rate across the Bight was 1.3 mmol m - 3 O 2 , with some locations losing on average up to 14.2 mmol m - 3 O 2 . The magnitude of loss is greater than model uncertainty assessed from data-model comparisons and from quantification of intrinsic variability. This phenomenon persists for 4 to 6 months of the year over an area of 278,40 km 2 ( ∼ 30% of SCB area). These recurrent features of acidification and oxygen loss are associated with cross-shore transport of nutrients by eddies and plankton biomass and their accumulation and retention within persistent eddies offshore within the SCB.

Effect of ocean outfall discharge volume and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load on urban eutrophication outcomes in the Southern California Bight.

Climate change is increasing drought severity worldwide. Ocean discharges of municipal wastewater are a target for potable water recycling. Potable water recycling would reduce wastewater volume; however, the effect on mass nitrogen loading is dependent on treatment. In cases where nitrogen mass loading is not altered or altered minimally, this practice has the potential to influence spatial patterns in coastal eutrophication. We apply a physical-biogeochemical numerical ocean model to understand the influence of nitrogen management and potable wastewater recycling on net primary productivity (NPP), pH, and oxygen. We model several theoretical management scenarios by combining dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) reductions from 50 to 85% and recycling from 0 to 90%, applied to 19 generalized wastewater outfalls in the Southern California Bight. Under no recycling, NPP, acidification, and oxygen loss decline with DIN reductions, which simulated habitat volume expansion for pelagic calcifiers and aerobic taxa. Recycling scenarios under intermediate DIN reduction show patchier areas of pH and oxygen loss with steeper vertical declines relative to a "no recycling" scenario. These patches are diminished under 85% DIN reduction across all recycling levels, suggesting nitrogen management lowers eutrophication risk even with concentrated discharges. These findings represent a novel application of ocean numerical models to investigate the regional effects of idealized outfall management on eutrophication. Additional work is needed to investigate more realistic outfall-specific water recycling and nutrient management scenarios and to contextualize the benefit of these management actions, given accelerating acidification and hypoxia from climate change.

A cross-regional examination of patterns and environmental drivers of Pseudo-nitzschia harmful algal blooms along the California coast.

Pseudo-nitzschia species with the ability to produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) are the main cause of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the U.S. West Coast, with major impacts on ecosystems, fisheries, and human health. While most Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) HAB studies to date have focused on their characteristics at specific sites, few cross-regional comparisons exist, and mechanistic understanding of large-scale HAB drivers remains incomplete. To close these gaps, we compiled a nearly 20-year time series of in situ particulate DA and environmental observations to characterize similarities and differences in PN HAB drivers along the California coast. We focus on three DA hotspots with the greatest data density: Monterey Bay, the Santa Barbara Channel, and the San Pedro Channel. Coastwise, DA outbreaks are strongly correlated with upwelling, chlorophyll-a, and silicic acid limitation relative to other nutrients. Clear differences also exist across the three regions, with contrasting responses to climate regimes across a north to south gradient. In Monterey Bay, PN HAB frequency and intensity increase under relatively nutrient-poor conditions during anomalously low upwelling intensities. In contrast, in the Santa Barbara and San Pedro Channels, PN HABs are favored under cold, nitrogen-rich conditions during more intense upwelling. These emerging patterns provide insights on ecological drivers of PN HABs that are consistent across regions and support the development of predictive capabilities for DA outbreaks along the California coast and beyond.

Development, calibration, and evaluation of a model of Pseudo-nitzschia and domoic acid production for regional ocean modeling studies.

Pseudo-nitzschia species are one of the leading causes of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the western coast of the United States. Approximately half of known Pseudo-nitzschia strains can produce domoic acid (DA), a neurotoxin that can negatively impact wildlife and fisheries and put human life at risk through amnesic shellfish poisoning. Production and accumulation of DA, a secondary metabolite synthesized during periods of low primary metabolism, is triggered by environmental stressors such as nutrient limitation. To quantify and estimate the feedbacks between DA production and environmental conditions, we designed a simple mechanistic model of Pseudo-nitzschia and domoic acid dynamics, which we validate against batch and chemostat experiments. Our results suggest that, as nutrients other than nitrogen (i.e., silicon, phosphorus, and potentially iron) become limiting, DA production increases. Under Si limitation, we found an approximate doubling in DA production relative to N limitation. Additionally, our model indicates a positive relationship between light and DA production. These results support the idea that the relationship with nutrient limitation and light is based on direct impacts on Pseudo-nitzschia biosynthesis and biomass accumulation. Because it can easily be embedded within existing coupled physical-ecosystem models, our model represents a step forward toward modeling the occurrence of Pseudo-nitzschia HABs and DA across the U.S. West Coast.

Dataset of terrestrial fluxes of freshwater, nutrients, carbon, and iron to the Southern California bight, U.A.A.

The Southern California Bight (SCB) is an upwelling-dominated, open embayment on the U.S. West Coast and receives discharges of anthropogenically-enhanced freshwater, nutrients, carbon, and other materials. These inputs include direct point sources discharged from wastewater treatment (WWT) plants via ocean outfalls and point, non-point, and natural sources discharged via coastal rivers. We assembled a daily time series over 1971-2017 of discharges from large WWT plants ≥ 50 million gallon per day (MGD) and 1997-2017 from small WWT plants and coastal rivers. Constituents include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, alkalinity, iron, and silica. Data from research studies, several government and non-government agency databases containing discharge monitoring reports, river flow gauges, and other collateral information were compiled to produce this dataset. Predictive models and expert analysis addressed unmonitored sources and data gaps. The time series of terrestrial discharge and fluxes are provided with location of coastal discharge point or tributary. The data are deposited in a repository found in Sutula et al. [1].

A baseline of terrestrial freshwater and nitrogen fluxes to the Southern California Bight, USA.

Time series were compiled of terrestrial nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, iron, and silica fluxes to the Southern California Bight (SCB), a U.S. West Coast embayment (Sutula et al., 2021). Monitoring data and model output were used to construct a baseline of inputs from direct point source (PS) discharges of wastewater treatment (WWT) effluent (via ocean outfalls) and PS, non-point and natural sources from coastal rivers. The baseline covers 1971-2017 for large WWT plants discharging >50 million gallons per day (MGD) and 1997-2017 for small WWT plants and rivers. PS are the dominant nitrogen source, with contributions of 70% of the total annual freshwater discharge and 95% of nitrogen loads. WWT upgrades have reduced organic nitrogen loads by 73% since 1971. Inorganic nitrogen loads have generally held constant (35-40 Gg y-1) for the large WWT plants. This baseline represents a period prior to extensive wastewater and stormwater recycling that is increasing in the region.

Synthesis of ecotoxicological studies on cyanotoxins in freshwater habitats - Evaluating the basis for developing thresholds protective of aquatic life in the United States.

In recent decades, cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) have increased in magnitude, frequency, and duration in freshwater ecosystems. CyanoHABs can impact water quality by the production of potent toxins known as cyanotoxins. Environmental exposure to cyanotoxins has been associated with severe illnesses in humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. However, the effects of sustained exposure to cyanotoxins on aquatic life are poorly understood. In this study, over 150 peer-reviewed articles were critically evaluated to better understand the ecotoxicity of 5 cyanotoxin classes (microcystins, cylindrospermopsin, anatoxin-a, saxitoxins, nodularin) on fish, amphibians, aquatic invertebrates, and birds exclusively feeding in freshwater habitats. The systemic review demonstrated that microcystins, and more specifically microcystin-LR, were the most studied cyanotoxins. Ecotoxicological investigations were typically conducted using a fish or aquatic invertebrate model, with mortality, bioaccumulation, and biochemical responses as the most frequently measured endpoints. After excluding the studies that did not meet our acceptability criteria, remaining studies were examined to identify the no-observed and lowest observed effect concentrations (NOEC and LOEC) for microcystins; the limited amount of data for other cyanotoxins did not allow for analysis. The published ecotoxicity data suggests that the U.S. EPA recreational water quality criteria for microcystin (8 µg/L) may be protective of acute toxicity in aquatic organisms but does not appear to protect against chronic toxicity. Individual U.S. states have developed more stringent recreational health-based thresholds, such as 0.8 µg/L in California. Comparisons of this threshold to the chronic NOEC and LOEC data indicate that more restrictive microcystins thresholds may be required to be protective of aquatic life. Additional research is needed to evaluate the sublethal effects of a wider array of microcystin congeners and other cyanotoxins on organisms relevant to U.S. watersheds to better support nationwide thresholds protective of aquatic life.

Climate-driven aerobic habitat loss in the California Current System.

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index (Φ), a species-specific measure of the environment's capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, Φ exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat. For a key CCS species, northern anchovy, the long-term biogeographic distribution and decadal fluctuations in abundance are both highly coherent with aerobic habitat volume. Ocean warming and oxygen loss by 2100 are projected to decrease Φ below critical levels in 30 to 50% of anchovies' present range, including complete loss of aerobic habitat-and thus likely extirpation-from the southern CCS. Aerobic habitat loss will vary widely across the traits of CCS taxa, disrupting ecological interactions throughout the region.

Microcystin Prevalence throughout Lentic Waterbodies in Coastal Southern California.

Toxin producing cyanobacterial blooms have increased globally in recent decades in both frequency and intensity. Despite the recognition of this growing risk, the extent and magnitude of cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxin prevalence is poorly characterized in the heavily populated region of southern California. Recent assessments of lentic waterbodies (depressional wetlands, lakes, reservoirs and coastal lagoons) determined the prevalence of microcystins and, in some cases, additional cyanotoxins. Microcystins were present in all waterbody types surveyed although toxin concentrations were generally low across most habitats, as only a small number of sites exceeded California's recreational health thresholds for acute toxicity. Results from passive samplers (Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT)) indicated microcystins were prevalent throughout lentic waterbodies and that traditional discrete samples underestimated the presence of microcystins. Multiple cyanotoxins were detected simultaneously in some systems, indicating multiple stressors, the risk of which is uncertain since health thresholds are based on exposures to single toxins. Anatoxin-a was detected for the first time from lakes in southern California. The persistence of detectable microcystins across years and seasons indicates a low-level, chronic risk through both direct and indirect exposure. The influence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms is a more complex stressor than presently recognized and should be included in water quality monitoring programs.

Novel Analyses of Long-Term Data Provide a Scientific Basis for Chlorophyll-a Thresholds in San Francisco Bay.

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton. Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a. Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m-3 as a "protective" threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13 - 16 mg m-3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80 % saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher "at risk" chl-a thresholds from 25 - 40 mg m-3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L-1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

Modeling the dry-weather tidal cycling of fecal indicator bacteria in surface waters of an intertidal wetland.

Recreational water quality at beaches in California and elsewhere is often poor near the outlets of rivers, estuaries, and lagoons. This condition has prompted interest in the role of wetlands in modulating surface water concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), the basis of water quality standards internationally. A model was developed and applied to predict the dry-weather tidal cycling of FIB in Talbert Marsh, an estuarine, intertidal wetland in Huntington Beach, California, in response to loads from urban runoff, bird feces, and resuspended sediments. The model predicts the advection, dispersion and die-off of total coliform, Escherichia coli, and enterococci using a depth-integrated formulation. We find that urban runoff and resuspension of contaminated wetland sediments are responsible for surface water concentrations of FIB in the wetland. Model predictions show that urban runoff controls surface water concentrations at inland sites and sediment resuspension controls surface water concentrations near the mouth. Direct wash-off of bird feces into the surface water is not a significant contributor, although bird feces can contribute to the sediment bacteria load. The key parameters needed to accurately predict FIB concentrations, using a validated hydrodynamic model, are: the load due to urban runoff, sediment erodibility parameters, and sediment concentrations and surface water die-off rates of enteric bacteria. In the present study, literature values for sediment erodibility and water column die-off rates are used and average concentrations of FIB are predicted within 1/2 log unit of measurements. Total coliform are predicted more accurately than E. coli or enterococci, both in terms of magnitude and tidal variability. Since wetland-dependent animals are natural sources of FIB, and FIB survive for long periods of time and may multiply in wetland sediments, these results highlight limitations of FIB as indicators of human fecal pollution in and near wetlands.

Organophosphorus pesticides in storm-water runoff from southern California (USA).

Large quantities of the organophosphorus (OP) pesticides diazinon and chlorpyrifos are applied to California (USA) watersheds every year, but few data are available on the sources of OP pesticides in urban watersheds. The goal of this study was to characterize diazinon and chlorpyrifos concentrations from different land uses indicative of source categories in urban southern California watersheds. This characterization included analysis of 128 runoff samples from eight different land uses over five storm events. Diazinon was consistently detected (93% of samples) during this study, whereas chlorpyrifos was not consistently detected (12% of samples). The mixed agricultural land use had the highest flow weighted mean (FWM) concentration of diazinon (4076 ng/L), which exceeded the next-highest land-use categories (commercial and residential) by one to two orders of magnitude (324-99 ng/L, respectively). Open space had the lowest concentration of diazinon (<20 ng/L). Concentrations of diazinon at replicate land-use sites and during replicate storm events at the same site were highly variable. The difference in diazinon FWM concentrations among replicate sites ranged from 1.5-fold to 45-fold. The difference in diazinon FWM concentrations among storms at the same site ranged from 1.25-fold to 30-fold. Part of this variability is a response to the temporal patterns observed within a storm event. The majority of land-use site-events had peak concentrations before peak flow indicating a first-flush effect, but this was not always a predictable temporal trend. The first-flush effect was rarely evident in terms of mass loadings because flows can range orders of magnitude during a single event in highly impervious urban watersheds. Flow variability thus overwhelms the variability in diazinon concentrations attributable to the first-flush effect.

Black carbon from the Mississippi River: quantities, sources, and potential implications for the global carbon cycle.

Black carbon (BC) may be a major component of riverine carbon exported to the ocean, but its flux from large rivers is unknown. Furthermore, the global distribution of BC between natural and anthropogenic sources remains uncertain. We have determined BC concentrations in suspended sediments of the Mississippi River, the 7th largest river in the world in terms of sediment and water discharge, during high flow and low flow in 1999. The 1999 annual flux of BC from the Mississippi River was 5 x 10(-4) petagrams (1 Pg = 10(15) g = 1 gigaton). We also applied a principal components analysis to particulate-phase high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon isomer ratios in Mississippi River suspended sediments. In doing so, we determined that approximately 27% of the BC discharged from the Mississippi River in 1999 originated from fossil fuel combustion (coal and smelter-derived combustion), implicating fluvial BC as an important source of anthropogenic BC contamination into the ocean. Using our value for BC flux and the annual estimate for BC burial in ocean sediments, we calculate that, in 1999, the Mississippi River discharged approximately 5% of the BC buried annually in the ocean. These results have important implications, not only for the global carbon cycle but also for the fluvial discharge of particulate organic contaminants into the world's oceans.