Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans.

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm - a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260,000 km(2) of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18-24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15-30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in north-eastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000-42,000 km(2) depending on thresholds used, with 900-17,000 km(2) outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century.

Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans.

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world's terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species.

Aminophylline compatibility with neonatal total parenteral nutrition.

OBJECTIVES: Aminophylline has proven useful for treating renal failure in preterm infants. Previous reports state that aminophylline is incompatible with some neonatal total parenteral nutrition (TPN) solutions. If this is correct, administration of aminophylline doses would be complicated by the need to hold TPN and provide flush solution after each aminophylline dose. Our experience with administering aminophylline over 30 minutes concurrently with TPN was that this was not problematic. We therefore examined the in vitro compatibility of aminophylline and TPN solutions used in our neonates over a 30-minute interval to see if our policy of allowing concurrent mixing of these products was appropriate. METHODS: TPN solutions (2.5 mL) were mixed with 1 mL of intravenous aminophylline 2.5 mg/mL in a glass vial. Three different TPN solutions used in our NICU were collected for the study, and five samples of each combination were prepared. Samples were watched for 60 minutes to see if precipitation occurred. RESULTS: Although the aminophylline and TPN solutions were not miscible, no turbidity or precipitation was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports that aminophylline is physically compatible with neonatal TPN for 60 minutes.