Seeking the "point of no return" in the sequence of events leading to mortality of mature trees.

Drought-related tree mortality is increasing globally, but the sequence of events leading to it remains poorly understood. To identify this sequence, we used a 2016 tree mortality event in a semi-arid pine forest where dendrometry and sap flow measurements were carried out in 31 trees, of which seven died. A comparative analysis revealed three stages leading to mortality. First, a decrease in tree diameter in all dying trees, but not in the surviving trees, 8 months "prior to the visual signs of mortality" (PVSM; e.g., near complete canopy browning). Second, a decay to near zero in the diurnal stem swelling/shrinkage dynamics, reflecting the loss of stem radial water flow in the dying trees, 6 months PVSM. Third, cessation of stem sap flow 3 months PVSM. Eventual mortality could therefore be detected long before visual signs were observed, and the three stages identified here demonstrated the differential effects of drought on stem growth, water storage capacity and soil water uptake. The results indicated that breakdown of stem radial water flow and phloem function is a critical element in defining the "point of no return" in the sequence of events leading to mortality of mature trees.

Assessing model performance via the most limiting environmental driver in two differently stressed pine stands.

Climate change will impact forest productivity worldwide. Forecasting the magnitude of such impact, with multiple environmental stressors changing simultaneously, is only possible with the help of process-based models. In order to assess their performance, such models require careful evaluation against measurements. However, direct comparison of model outputs against observational data is often not reliable, as models may provide the right answers due to the wrong reasons. This would severely hinder forecasting abilities under unprecedented climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology for model assessment, which supplements the traditional output-to-observation model validation. It evaluates model performance through its ability to reproduce observed seasonal changes of the most limiting environmental driver (MLED) for a given process, here daily gross primary productivity (GPP). We analyzed seasonal changes of the MLED for GPP in two contrasting pine forests, the Mediterranean Pinus halepensis Mill. Yatir (Israel) and the boreal Pinus sylvestris L. Hyytiälä (Finland) from three years of eddy-covariance flux data. Then, we simulated the same period with a state-of-the-art process-based simulation model (LandscapeDNDC). Finally, we assessed if the model was able to reproduce both GPP observations and MLED seasonality. We found that the model reproduced the seasonality of GPP in both stands, but it was slightly overestimated without site-specific fine-tuning. Interestingly, although LandscapeDNDC properly captured the main MLED in Hyytiälä (temperature) and in Yatir (soil water availability), it failed to reproduce high-temperature and high-vapor pressure limitations of GPP in Yatir during spring and summer. We deduced that the most likely reason for this divergence is an incomplete description of stomatal behavior. In summary, this study validates the MLED approach as a model evaluation tool, and opens up new possibilities for model improvement.

Resilience to seasonal heat wave episodes in a Mediterranean pine forest.

Short-term, intense heat waves (hamsins) are common in the eastern Mediterranean region and provide an opportunity to study the resilience of forests to such events that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. The response of a 50-yr-old Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forest to hamsin events lasting 1-7 d was studied using 10 yr of eddy covariance and sap flow measurements. The highest frequency of heat waves was c. four per month, coinciding with the peak productivity period (March-April). During these events, net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and canopy conductance (gc ) decreased by c. 60%, but evapotranspiration (ET) showed little change. Fast recovery was also observed with fluxes reaching pre-stress values within a day following the event. NEE and gc showed a strong response to vapor pressure deficit that weakened as soil moisture decreased, while sap flow was primarily responding to changes in soil moisture. On an annual scale, heat waves reduced NEE and gross primary productivity by c. 15% and 4%, respectively. Forest resilience to short-term extreme events such as heat waves is probably a key to its survival and must be accounted for to better predict the increasing impact on productivity and survival of such events in future climates.

The importance of tree internal water storage under drought conditions.

Global warming and drying trends, as well as the increase in frequency and intensity of droughts, may have unprecedented impacts on various forest ecosystems. We assessed the role of internal water storage (WS) in drought resistance of mature pine trees in the semi-arid Yatir Forest. Transpiration (T), soil moisture and sap flow (SF) were measured continuously, accompanied by periodical measurements of leaf and branch water potential (Ψleaf) and water content (WC). The data were used to parameterize a tree hydraulics model to examine the impact of WS capacitance on the tree water relations. The results of the continuous measurements showed a 5-h time lag between T and SF in the dry season, which peaked in the early morning and early afternoon, respectively. A good fit between model results and observations was only obtained when the empirically estimated WS capacitance was included in the model. Without WS during the dry season, Ψleaf would drop below a threshold known to cause hydraulic failure and cessation of gas exchange in the studied tree species. Our results indicate that tree WS capacitance is a key drought resistance trait that could enhance tree survival in a drying climate, contributing up to 45% of the total daily transpiration during the dry season.

Large-scale semi-arid afforestation can enhance precipitation and carbon sequestration potential.

Afforestation is an important approach to mitigate global warming. Its complex interactions with the climate system, however, makes it controversial. Afforestation is expected to be effective in the tropics where biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects act in concert; however, its potential in the large semi-arid regions remains insufficiently explored. Here, we use a Global Climate Model to provide a process-based demonstration that implementing measured characteristics of a successful semi-arid afforestation system (2000 ha, ~300 mm mean annual precipitation) over large areas (~200 million ha) of similar precipitation levels in the Sahel and North Australia leads to the weakening and shifting of regional low-level jets, enhancing moisture penetration and precipitation (+0.8 ± 0.1 mm d-1 over the Sahel and +0.4 ± 0.1 mm d-1 over North Australia), influencing areas larger than the original afforestation. These effects are associated with increasing root depth and surface roughness and with decreasing albedo. This results in enhanced evapotranspiration, surface cooling and the modification of the latitudinal temperature gradient. It is estimated that the carbon sequestration potential of such large-scale semi-arid afforestation can be on the order of ~10% of the global carbon sink of the land biosphere and would overwhelm any biogeophysical warming effects within ~6 years.