Modelling of Hepatitis B Virus vertical transmission dynamics in Ethiopia: a compartmental modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B (HB) is a virus which causes a potentially fatal liver infection. It is a DNA virus belonging to the Hepadnaviridae virus family. Africa, after Asia, has the second highest number of chronic HBV carriers and is considered a high-endemic region. Ethiopia is classified as a country with a high prevalence of viral hepatitis and with nations that lack a systematic strategy for viral hepatitis surveillance. METHODS: S-I-C-R deterministic model was developed and the numerical simulations were done in "R" statistical and programming software. Fixed population assumption was considered so as to develop a simple model which could predict the HBV vertical transmission for the next 5 decades. RESULTS: The model revealed that significant number of populations will be infected and become carrier till the end the next 49 years even though it has decreasing trend. It was predicted that 271,719 people will die of HBV complications if no intervention will be made on its vertical transmission. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the force of infection has the most important parameter in the vertical transmission dynamics of hepatitis B. Provision of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBVIG) and vaccines at the time of delivery could decrease the force of infection by more than half and 51,892 lives will be saved if the intervention is offered for 50% of deliveries in Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that the incidence of HBV vertical transmission is substantial, it is expected to decline during the next five decades. However, the situation necessitates immediate attention, since it results in thousands of deaths if no action is taken. Offering HBVIG and vaccinations to the 50% of infants can save many lives and reduces the force of infection by more than a half.

Achieving high treatment success for multidrug-resistant TB in Africa: initiation and scale-up of MDR TB care in Ethiopia--an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Africa, fewer than half of patients receiving therapy for multidrug-resistant TB (MDR TB) are successfully treated, with poor outcomes reported for HIV-coinfected patients. METHODS: A standardised second-line drug (SLD) regimen was used in a non-governmental organisation-Ministry of Health (NGO-MOH) collaborative community and hospital-based programme in Ethiopia that included intensive side effect monitoring, adherence strategies and nutritional supplementation. Clinical outcomes for patients with at least 24 months of follow-up were reviewed and predictors of treatment failure or death were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: From February 2009 to December 2014, 1044 patients were initiated on SLD. 612 patients with confirmed or presumed MDR TB had ≥ 24 months of follow-up, 551 (90.0%) were confirmed and 61 (10.0%) were suspected MDR TB cases. 603 (98.5%) had prior TB treatment, 133 (21.7%) were HIV coinfected and median body mass index (BMI) was 16.6. Composite treatment success was 78.6% with 396 (64.7%) cured, 85 (13.9%) who completed treatment, 10 (1.6%) who failed, 85 (13.9%) who died and 36 (5.9%) who were lost to follow-up. HIV coinfection (adjusted HR (AHR): 2.60, p<0.001), BMI (AHR 0.88/kg/m(2), p=0.006) and cor pulmonale (AHR 3.61, p=0.003) and confirmed MDR TB (AHR 0.50, p=0.026) were predictive of treatment failure or death. CONCLUSIONS: We report from Ethiopia the highest MDR TB treatment success outcomes so far achieved in Africa, in a setting with severe resource constraints and patients with advanced disease. Intensive treatment of adverse effects, nutritional supplementation, adherence interventions and NGO-MOH collaboration were key strategies contributing to success. We argue these approaches should be routinely incorporated into programmes.

Neonatal Tetanus Case Series: A Tale of Survival and Tragedy at St Paul Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: Neonatal tetanus remains a significant threat in regions with limited healthcare access, despite being preventable through vaccination. The case-fatality rate of untreated neonatal tetanus is close to 100%. Even one case of neonatal tetanus regarded as a failure of the healthcare system, making it essential to remain mindful of this disease's relevance to public health. Two cases of neonatal tetanus are presented, highlighting the severe consequences of the disease. One infant survived after ICU treatment, while the other succumbed despite medical intervention. Conclusion: These cases underscore the critical need for clean delivery practices and Tetanus anti-toxoid vaccination for women of reproductive age. Improving access to quality antenatal healthcare and promoting clean birth practices are essential in reducing the incidence of neonatal tetanus and preventing unnecessary deaths.