Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal. METHODS: A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range. RESULTS: The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine.

Successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil: social and environmental context, policies, interventions, and research needs.

Despite pronounced reductions in the number of deaths due to infectious diseases over the past six decades, infectious diseases are still a public health problem in Brazil. In this report, we discuss the major successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil, and identify research needs and policies to further improve control or interrupt transmission. Control of diseases such as cholera, Chagas disease, and those preventable by vaccination has been successful through efficient public policies and concerted efforts from different levels of government and civil society. For these diseases, policies dealt with key determinants (eg, the quality of water and basic sanitation, vector control), provided access to preventive resources (such as vaccines), and successfully integrated health policies with broader social policies. Diseases for which control has failed (such as dengue fever and visceral leishmaniasis) are vector-borne diseases with changing epidemiological profiles and major difficulties in treatment (in the case of dengue fever, no treatment is available). Diseases for which control has been partly successful have complex transmission patterns related to adverse environmental, social, economic, or unknown determinants; are sometimes transmitted by insect vectors that are difficult to control; and are mostly chronic diseases with long infectious periods that require lengthy periods of treatment.

Genetic ancestry and income are associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever in a highly admixed population.

To test whether African ancestry is protective for severe dengue, we genotyped 49 hospitalized cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) as well as 293 neighborhood cases of dengue fever and 294 asymptomatic controls in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. Ancestry-informative markers and 282 unlinked SNPs not associated with the clinical presentation of dengue were used to estimate ancestry. After controlling for income, both self-defined Afro-Brazilian ethnicity and African ancestry were protective for DHF (P=0.02, OR=0.28 and P=0.02, OR=0.13, respectively). Income or an index of income indicators, however, was also independently associated with the diagnosis of DHF.

The correlation between ancestry and color in two cities of Northeast Brazil with contrasting ethnic compositions.

The degree of admixture in Brazil between historically isolated populations is complex and geographically variable. Studies differ as to what the genetic and phenotypic consequences of this mixing have been. In Northeastern Brazil, we enrolled 522 residents of Salvador and 620 of Fortaleza whose distributions of self-declared color were comparable to those in the national census. Using the program Structure and principal components analysis there was a clear correlation between biogeographic ancestry and categories of skin color. This correlation with African ancestry was stronger in Salvador (r=0.585; P<0.001) than in Fortaleza (r=0.236; P<0.001). In Fortaleza, although self-declared blacks had a greater proportion of European ancestry, they had more African ancestry than the other categories. When the populations were analyzed without pseudoancestors, as in some studies, the relationship of 'race' to genetic ancestry tended to diffuse or disappear. The inclusion of different African populations also influenced ancestry estimates. The percentage of unlinked ancestry informative markers in linkage disequilibrium, a measure of population structure, was 3-5 times higher in both Brazilian populations than expected by chance. We propose that certain methods, ascertainment bias and population history of the specific populations surveyed can result in failure to demonstrate a correlation between skin color and genetic ancestry. Population structure in Brazil has important implications for genetic studies, but genetic ancestry is irrelevant for how individuals are treated in society, their health, their income or their inclusion. These track more closely with perceived skin color than genetic ancestry.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is associated with polymorphisms in JAK1.

To identify genes associated with the clinical presentation of dengue, 50 cases of probable or possible dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), 236 dengue fever (DF), and 236 asymptomatic infections were genotyped for 593 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 56 genes across the type 1 interferon (IFN) response pathway as well as other important candidate genes. By single locus analysis comparing DHF with DF, 11 of the 51 markers with P<0.05 were in the JAK1 gene. Five markers were significantly associated by false discovery rate criteria (q<0.20 when P<6 × 10(-4)). The JAK1 SNPs showed differential distribution by ethnicity and ancestry consistent with epidemiologic observations in the Americas. The association remained significant after controlling for ancestry and income. No association was observed with markers in the gene encoding CD209 (DC-SIGN). An association between DHF and JAK1 polymorphisms is in agreement with expression profiles showing generalized decreased type 1 IFN-stimulated gene expression in these patients.