Adult palliative care 2004-2030 population study: estimates and projections in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate past trends and future projection of adult palliative care needs in Malaysia. METHODS: This is a population-based secondary data analysis using the national mortality registry from 2004 to 2014. Past trend estimation was conducted using Murtagh's minimum and maximum methods and Gómez-Batiste's method. The estimated palliative care needs were stratified by age groups, gender and administrative states in Malaysia. With this, the projection of palliative care needs up to 2030 was conducted under the assumption that annual change remains constant. RESULTS: The palliative care needs in Malaysia followed an apparent upward trend over the years regardless of the estimation methods. Murtagh's minimum estimation method showed that palliative care needs grew 40% from 71 675 cases in 2004 to 100 034 cases in 2014. The proportion of palliative care needs in relation to deaths hovered at 71% in the observed years. In 2030, Malaysia should anticipate the population needs to be at least 239 713 cases (240% growth from 2014), with the highest needs among age group ≥80-year-old in both genders. Sarawak, Perak, Johor, Selangor and Kedah will become the top five Malaysian states with the highest number of needs in 2030. CONCLUSION: The need for palliative care in Malaysia will continue to rise and surpass its service provision. This trend demands a stepped-up provision from the national health system with advanced integration of palliative care services to narrow the gap between needs and supply.

Investigational use of ribavirin in the treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Singapore, 2003.

OBJECTIVE: Ribavirin is a broad spectrum nucleoside analogue efficacious in the treatment of several viral infections. In the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, ribavirin was used in various countries against this novel coronavirus. We conducted a retrospective analysis to assess the efficacy of ribavirin in the treatment of SARS in Singapore. METHODS: A total of 229 cases were analysed. Ninety-seven (42.4%) patients received ribavirin at a mean of 6.4 days of illness. Clinical and laboratory parameters taken at the start of ribavirin treatment were compared with day 5, 6 or 7 parameters of those patients not on treatment. The two groups were compared using Fisher's exact test and Student's t-test. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression model with death as the outcome of interest. RESULTS: The treatment group had younger women with more symptoms of myalgia (P < 0.001). The crude death rate was 12.9% in the control and 10.3% (P = 0.679) in the treatment group. After correction for age, male sex, lactate dehydrogenase levels and steroid use, the hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% CI: 0.44-2.41, P = 0.939). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, uncontrolled cohort analysis, use of ribavirin did not appear to confer any benefit for patients with SARS.