Polio eradication: Addressing the hurdles on the last mile.

1988, the World Health Assembly committed to eradicate poliomyelitis, a viral disease that can cause permanent paralysis. Today, only type 1 of the three wild poliovirus types remains circulating in limited geographic areas following widespread use of different poliovirus vaccines. While we are close to zero new cases of wild polio, it is a fragile situation, and there are many remaining and new hurdles to overcome. Here, experts discuss how to address them.

Wiring and Molecular Features of Prefrontal Ensembles Representing Distinct Experiences.

A major challenge in understanding the cellular diversity of the brain has been linking activity during behavior with standard cellular typology. For example, it has not been possible to determine whether principal neurons in prefrontal cortex active during distinct experiences represent separable cell types, and it is not known whether these differentially active cells exert distinct causal influences on behavior. Here, we develop quantitative hydrogel-based technologies to connect activity in cells reporting on behavioral experience with measures for both brain-wide wiring and molecular phenotype. We find that positive and negative-valence experiences in prefrontal cortex are represented by cell populations that differ in their causal impact on behavior, long-range wiring, and gene expression profiles, with the major discriminant being expression of the adaptation-linked gene NPAS4. These findings illuminate cellular logic of prefrontal cortex information processing and natural adaptive behavior and may point the way to cell-type-specific understanding and treatment of disease-associated states.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Molecular and cellular approaches for diversifying and extending optogenetics.

Optogenetic technologies employ light to control biological processes within targeted cells in vivo with high temporal precision. Here, we show that application of molecular trafficking principles can expand the optogenetic repertoire along several long-sought dimensions. Subcellular and transcellular trafficking strategies now permit (1) optical regulation at the far-red/infrared border and extension of optogenetic control across the entire visible spectrum, (2) increased potency of optical inhibition without increased light power requirement (nanoampere-scale chloride-mediated photocurrents that maintain the light sensitivity and reversible, step-like kinetic stability of earlier tools), and (3) generalizable strategies for targeting cells based not only on genetic identity, but also on morphology and tissue topology, to allow versatile targeting when promoters are not known or in genetically intractable organisms. Together, these results illustrate use of cell-biological principles to enable expansion of the versatile fast optogenetic technologies suitable for intact-systems biology and behavior.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.

BACKGROUND: In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS: We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS: Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS: In countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.

One size doesn't fit all: methodological reflections in conducting community-based behavioural science research to tailor COVID-19 vaccination initiatives for public health priority populations.

BACKGROUND: Promoting the uptake of vaccination for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 remains a global challenge, necessitating collaborative efforts between public health units (PHUs) and communities. Applied behavioural science can play a crucial role in supporting PHUs' response by providing insights into human behaviour and informing tailored strategies to enhance vaccination uptake. Community engagement can help broaden the reach of behavioural science research by involving a more diverse range of populations and ensuring that strategies better represent the needs of specific communities. We developed and applied an approach to conducting community-based behavioural science research with ethnically and socioeconomically diverse populations to guide PHUs in tailoring their strategies to promote COVID-19 vaccination. This paper presents the community engagement methodology and the lessons learned in applying the methodology. METHODS: The community engagement methodology was developed based on integrated knowledge translation (iKT) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) principles. The study involved collaboration with PHUs and local communities in Ontario, Canada to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination, understand factors influencing vaccine uptake and co-design strategies tailored to each community to promote vaccination. Community engagement was conducted across three large urban regions with individuals from Eastern European communities, African, Black, and Caribbean communities and low socioeconomic neighbourhoods. RESULTS: We developed and applied a seven-step methodology for conducting community-based behavioural science research: (1) aligning goals with system-level partners; (2) engaging with PHUs to understand priorities; (3) understanding community strengths and dynamics; (4) building relationships with each community; (5) establishing partnerships (community advisory groups); (6) involving community members in the research process; and (7) feeding back and interpreting research findings. Research partnerships were successfully established with members of prioritized communities, enabling recruitment of participants for theory-informed behavioural science interviews, interpretation of findings, and co-design of targeted recommendations for each PHU to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake. Lessons learned include the importance of cultural sensitivity and awareness of sociopolitical context in tailoring community engagement, being agile to address the diverse and evolving priorities of PHUs, and building trust to achieve effective community engagement. CONCLUSION: Effective community engagement in behavioural science research can lead to more inclusive and representative research. The community engagement approach developed and applied in this study acknowledges the diversity of communities, recognizes the central role of PHUs, and can help in addressing complex public health challenges.

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.

Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated cessation of Sabin type 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. However, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) remain undefined, and OPV2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. Recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. Prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with GPEI strategic plans that preceded OPV2 cessation explored OPV cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. The 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan highlighted the need for early bOPV cessation planning. We review the published modeling and explore bOPV cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the GPEI partners will not support restart of the use of any OPV type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. We model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bOPV cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan. We do not find any options for bOPV cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bOPV intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation.

Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.

In May 2016, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated the cessation of all use of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2), except for emergency outbreak response. Since then, paralytic polio cases caused by type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses now exceed 3,000 cases reported by 39 countries. In 2022 (as of April 25, 2023), 20 countries reported detection of cases and nine other countries reported environmental surveillance detection, but no reported cases. Recent development of a genetically modified novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) may help curb the generation of neurovirulent vaccine-derived strains; its use since 2021 under Emergency Use Listing is limited to outbreak response activities. Prior modeling studies showed that the expected trajectory for global type 2 viruses does not appear headed toward eradication, even with the best possible properties of nOPV2 assuming current outbreak response performance. Continued persistence of type 2 poliovirus transmission exposes the world to the risks of potentially high-consequence events such as the importation of virus into high-transmission areas of India or Bangladesh. Building on prior polio endgame modeling and assuming current national and GPEI outbreak response performance, we show no probability of successfully eradicating type 2 polioviruses in the near term regardless of vaccine choice. We also demonstrate the possible worst-case scenarios could result in rapid expansion of paralytic cases and preclude the goal of permanently ending all cases of poliomyelitis in the foreseeable future. Avoiding such catastrophic scenarios will depend on the development of strategies that raise population immunity to type 2 polioviruses.

THREE CASES OF CLINICAL LEPTOSPIROSIS IN PATAGONIAN MARAS (DOLICHOTIS PATAGONUM).

Rodents are typically viewed as asymptomatic reservoirs for leptospirosis infection, as clinical disease in rodents is rarely described. This report includes three separate cases of leptospirosis in Patagonian maras (Dolichotis patagonum) over a 3-yr period in multiple locations within a single zoo. All three cases presented with varying clinical signs including lethargy, conjunctival hyperemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and presumed renal azotemia. Infection with Leptospira spp. was diagnosed antemortem by PCR on whole blood (n = 1, Case 1) or urine (n = 2, Cases 2 and 3). Leptospira antibody titers measured by serum microagglutination testing (n = 3) were elevated or increased in all three animals over a 1-3-wk period for Leptospira serovars Bratislava and Hardjo (Case 1) and Grippotyphosa (Case 2 and 3). Two of the three animals responded to treatment with penicillin and doxycycline and supportive care, whereas one animal did not respond to treatment. Postmortem findings in this individual included conjunctivitis, chemosis, dehydration, icterus, tricavitary serosanguinous effusions, necrotizing hepatitis, diffuse pulmonary congestion, and edema. Immunohistochemical examination identified scattered Leptospira organisms within hepatocytes and renal tubular epithelial cells. A wild raccoon (Procyon lotor) at the institution tested positive by PCR on kidney tissue for the same Leptospira spp. serovar and was the suspected source of infection. This case series highlights the clinical importance of leptospirosis as a differential for Patagonian maras presenting with lethargy, ocular signs, acute hepatic disease, and azotemia.

Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Since 2013, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission occurred only for type 1 (WPV1). Following several years of increasing reported incidence (2017-2019) and programmatic disruptions caused by COVID-19 (early 2020), Pakistan and Afghanistan performed a large number of supplementary immunization activities (late 2020-2021). This increased intensity of immunization, following widespread transmission, substantially decreased WPV1 cases and positive environmental samples during 2021. Modeling the potential for undetected circulation of WPV1 after apparent interruption can support regional and global decisions about certification of the eradication of indigenous WPV1 transmission. We apply a stochastic model to estimate the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of time since the last reported case and/or positive environmental sample. Exploration of different assumptions about surveillance quality suggests a range for CNC for WPV1 as a function of time since the last positive surveillance signal, and supports the potential use of a time with no evidence of transmission of less than 3 years as sufficient to assume die out in the context of good acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. We show high expected CNC based on AFP surveillance data alone, even with imperfect surveillance and some use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine masking the ability of AFP surveillance to detect transmission. Ensuring high quality AFP and environmental surveillance may substantially shorten the time required to reach high CNC. The time required for high CNC depends on whether immunization activities maintain high population immunity and the quality of surveillance data.

Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan and Afghanistan pose risks for international transmission of polioviruses as the last global reservoir for wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) and a reservoir for type 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPV2s). Widespread transmission of WPV1 and cVDPV2 in 2019-2020 and resumption of intensive supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) in 2020-2021 using oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) led to decreased transmission of WPV1 and cVDPV2 as of the end of 2021. Using an established dynamic disease transmission model, we explore multiple bounding scenarios with varying intensities of SIAs using bivalent OPV (bOPV) and/or trivalent tOPV (tOPV) to characterize potential die out of transmission. This analysis demonstrates potential sets of actions that may lead to elimination of poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and/or Afghanistan. Some modeled scenarios suggest that Pakistan and Afghanistan could increase population immunity to levels high enough to eliminate transmission, and if maintained, achieve WPV1 and cVDPV2 elimination as early as 2022. This requires intensive and proactive OPV SIAs to prevent transmission, instead of surveillance followed by reactive outbreak response. The reduction of cases observed in 2021 may lead to a false sense of security that polio has already or soon will die out on its own, but relaxation of immunization activities runs the risk of lowering population immunity to, or below, the minimum die-out threshold such that transmission continues. Transmission modeling may play a key role in managing expectations and supporting future modeling about the confidence of no virus circulation in anticipation of global certification decisions.

Serial ultrasonographic measurements of fetal parameters over three successive pregnancies in a captive Eastern black-and-white colobus monkey (Colobus guereza).

This study provides ultrasonographic fetal growth charts for the Eastern black-and-white colobus monkey (Colobus guereza). Throughout three consecutive gestations (-162 to -2 days to parturition) in a single dam, we opportunistically obtained ultrasonographic measurements for the following parameters: biparietal diameter, head circumference, humerus length, femur length, tibia length, radius length, thoracic width, kidney length, and crown-rump length. Biparietal diameter was the most consistently measured parameter. First detection of fetuses occurred between 96 and 162 days before parturition. This report demonstrates that voluntary transabdominal ultrasound can be well-tolerated in the colobus monkey using operant conditioning. These findings may be useful to assess fetal development and predict parturition dates in the absence of a known conception date in this species.

ANESTHESIA OF ZOO-MANAGED AFRICAN PAINTED DOGS (LYCAON PICTUS) USING A DEXMEDETOMIDINE-KETAMINEBUTORPHANOL-MIDAZOLAM COMBINATION.

Zoo-managed adult African painted dogs (Lycaon pictus; n = 17) were anesthetized with mean dosages of dexmedetomidine 5 µg/kg, ketamine 1.93 mg/kg, butorphanol 0.2 mg/kg, and midazolam 0.15 mg/kg IM. Times to induction milestones (mean ± SD or median [range]) were initial effects at 2 min (1-4 min), recumbency at 3.2 ± 1.1 min, and intubation at 11.6 ± 1.3 min. Two dogs required isoflurane supplementation for intubation. Anesthesia was antagonized with mean dosages of atipamezole 0.05 mg/kg IM, naltrexone 0.2 mg/kg IM, and flumazenil 0.01 mg/kg IV. Times from antagonist administration to recovery milestones were extubation at 3.9 ± 1.5 min, control of head at 7.6 ± 2.5 min, sternal positioning at 8.8 ± 2.3 min, and standing at 12.1 ± 3.5 min. Animals were judged ready for reunification with conspecifics at 41.5 min (28-127 min), and reunification occurred at 62.1 ± 35.2 min. Paired arterial blood gas samples were obtained (n = 13). There was a significant decrease in temperature and blood pressure and increase in pO2, BEecf, and HCO3- (P < 0.05). Decreased respiratory rate with hypercapnia was occasionally observed. This protocol provided consistent anesthesia using a low dose α-2 agonist and permitted quick pack reunification.

DEGENERATIVE CARDIAC DISEASE IN TWO SPECIES OF TORTOISE (CHELONOIDIS NIGRA COMPLEX, CENTROCHELYS SULCATA).

Cardiac lesions in tortoises are incompletely described in the literature. This retrospective case series includes 11 cases of degenerative cardiac disease in young tortoises from two species in human care: Galápagos tortoise complex (Chelonoidis nigra complex) (n = 9) and sulcata tortoises (Centrochelys sulcata) (n = 2). Eight tortoises were male, two were female, and sex was undetermined for one individual. The age range at the time of death was 10-32 yr with a mean of 19 yr. The most common clinical signs noted prior to death were peripheral edema, lethargy, and inappetence. Common necropsy findings included generalized edema and pericardial effusion. All cases had ventricular myocardial fibrosis and several cases had epicardial adhesions. Additional common findings included hepatic lesions (hepatic lipidosis, hepatic fibrosis, and hepatitis) and pulmonary lesions (pulmonary edema, pulmonary fibrosis, and pneumocytic hypertrophy). A definitive cause for degenerative cardiac disease was not identified in this case series, but the young age distribution of the tortoises suggests that inappropriate environmental parameters, husbandry, and diet should be investigated as possible underlying contributing factors.

Polio by the Numbers-A Global Perspective.

BACKGROUND: Investments in national immunization programs and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have resulted in substantial reductions in paralytic polio worldwide. However, cases prevented because of investments in immunization programs and GPEI remain incompletely characterized. METHODS: Using a global model that integrates polio transmission, immunity, and vaccine dynamics, we provide estimates of polio incidence and numbers of paralytic cases prevented. We compare the results with reported cases and estimates historically published by the World Health Organization. RESULTS: We estimate that the existence and use of polio vaccines prevented 5 million cases of paralytic polio for 1960-1987 and 24 million cases worldwide for 1988-2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines. Since the 1988 resolution to eradicate polio, our estimates suggest GPEI prevented 2.5-6 million cases of paralytic polio compared to counterfactual worlds without GPEI that assume different levels of intensity of polio vaccine use in routine immunization programs. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of historical cases provides important context for understanding and communicating the benefits of investments made in polio eradication. Prospective studies will need to explore the expected benefits of future investments, the outcomes of which will depend on whether and when polio is globally eradicated.

Updated Characterization of Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and the Impacts of Different Outbreak Response Vaccine Options.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only reservoirs of wild poliovirus transmission. Prior modeling suggested that before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, plans to stop the transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and persistent serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) did not appear on track to succeed. METHODS: We updated an existing poliovirus transmission and Sabin-strain oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) evolution model for Pakistan and Afghanistan to characterize the impacts of immunization disruptions and restrictions on human interactions (ie, population mixing) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider different options for responding to outbreaks and for preventive supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). RESULTS: The modeling suggests that with some resumption of activities in the fall of 2020 to respond to cVDPV2 outbreaks and full resumption on 1 January 2021 of all polio immunization activities to pre-COVID-19 levels, Pakistan and Afghanistan would remain off-track for stopping all transmission through 2023 without improvements in quality. CONCLUSIONS: Using trivalent OPV (tOPV) for SIAs instead of serotype 2 monovalent OPV offers substantial benefits for ending the transmission of both WPV1 and cVDPV2, because tOPV increases population immunity for both serotypes 1 and 2 while requiring fewer SIA rounds, when effectively delivered in transmission areas.

Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Mexican Wolf Pups at Zoo, Michigan, USA.

During the 2019 Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) outbreak in Michigan, two 2-month old Mexican wolf pups experienced neurologic signs, lymphohistiocytic neutrophilic meningoencephalitis with neuronal necrosis and neuronophagia, and acute death. We identified EEEV by reverse transcription real-time PCR and in situ hybridization. Vector mosquitoes were trapped at the zoo.

Atypical Brucella inopinata-Like Species in 2 Marine Toads.

We describe the isolation of atypical Brucella inopinata-like species and unique clinicopathologic findings in 2 adult marine toads (Rhinella marina), including oophoritis in 1 toad. These findings represent a novel emerging disease in toads and a possible zoonotic pathogen.

Perspectives From Patients and Gastroenterologists on De-escalating Therapy for Crohn's Disease.

In Crohn's disease, combination therapy with anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) agents and azathioprine/mercaptopurine has been shown to be superior to monotherapy with one of these treatments alone.1 This combination has its best success rate when used early in the course of treatment.2 However, because of the significant cost of these drugs and concerns over long-term side effects,3,4 many patients and providers often ask about stopping one or both of these medications.

Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are .

This introduction for the third special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context for the current status of global polio eradication efforts and gives an overview of the individual papers included in the issue. Although risk analysis continues to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), efforts to finish the job remained off track at the beginning of 2020 and prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed in the special issue. The disruptions associated with COVID-19 occurring now will inevitably change the polio eradication trajectory, and future studies will need to characterize the impacts of these disruptions on the polio endgame.