Using Baidu Index Data to Improve Chickenpox Surveillance in Yunnan, China: Infodemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Chickenpox is an old but easily neglected infectious disease. Although chickenpox is preventable by vaccines, vaccine breakthroughs often occur, and the chickenpox epidemic is on the rise. Chickenpox is not included in the list of regulated communicable diseases that must be reported and controlled by public and health departments; therefore, it is crucial to rapidly identify and report varicella outbreaks during the early stages. The Baidu index (BDI) can supplement the traditional surveillance system for infectious diseases, such as brucellosis and dengue, in China. The number of reported chickenpox cases and internet search data also showed a similar trend. BDI can be a useful tool to display the outbreak of infectious diseases. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an efficient disease surveillance method that uses BDI to assist in traditional surveillance. METHODS: Chickenpox incidence data (weekly from January 2017 to June 2021) reported by the Yunnan Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention were obtained to evaluate the relationship between the incidence of chickenpox and BDI. We applied a support vector machine regression (SVR) model and a multiple regression prediction model with BDI to predict the incidence of chickenpox. In addition, we used the SVR model to predict the number of chickenpox cases from June 2021 to the first week of April 2022. RESULTS: The analysis showed that there was a close correlation between the weekly number of newly diagnosed cases and the BDI. In the search terms we collected, the highest Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.747. Most BDI search terms, such as "chickenpox," "chickenpox treatment," "treatment of chickenpox," "chickenpox symptoms," and "chickenpox virus," trend consistently. Some BDI search terms, such as "chickenpox pictures," "symptoms of chickenpox," "chickenpox vaccine," and "is chickenpox vaccine necessary," appeared earlier than the trend of "chickenpox virus." The 2 models were compared, the SVR model performed better in all the applied measurements: fitting effect, R2=0.9108, root mean square error (RMSE)=96.2995, and mean absolute error (MAE)=73.3988; and prediction effect, R2=0.548, RMSE=189.1807, and MAE=147.5412. In addition, we applied the SVR model to predict the number of reported cases weekly in Yunnan from June 2021 to April 2022 using the same period of the BDI. The results showed that the fluctuation of the time series from July 2021 to April 2022 was similar to that of the last year and a half with no change in the level of prevention and control. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicated that the BDI in Yunnan Province can predict the incidence of chickenpox in the same period. Thus, the BDI is a useful tool for monitoring the chickenpox epidemic and for complementing traditional monitoring systems.

Monitoring and detection of leprosy patients in Southwest China: A retrospective study, 2010-2014.

More than 100 counties, mainly in southwest China, report incidence rates of leprosy >1/100,000. The current study analysed the epidemiology of leprosy in southwest China to improve our understanding of the transmission pattern and improve control programs. 207 counties were selected in southwest China. Leprosy patients and their household contacts were recruited. The data from the medical interview and the serological antileprosy antibody of the leprosy patients were analysed. A total of 2,353 new cases of leprosy were interviewed. The distribution of leprosy patients was partly associated with local natural and economic conditions, especially several pocket areas. A total of 53 from 6643 household contacts developed leprosy, and the incidence rate of leprosy in the household contacts was 364/100,000 person-years. We found that NDO-BSA attained higher positive rates than MMP-II and LID-1 regardless of clinical types, disability and infection time in leprosy patients. By means of combination of antigens, 88.4% patients of multibacillary leprosy were detected, in contrast to 59.9% in paucibacillary leprosy. Household contacts should be given close attention for the early diagnosis, disruption of disease transmission and precise control. Applications of serology for multi-antigens were recommended for effective coverage and monitoring in leprosy control.