b map evaluation and on-fault stress state for the Antakya 2023 earthquakes.

The analysis of on-fault seismicity can enlighten the current stress state on the fault itself. Its definition is relevant to individuate fault patches that have not released all the accumulated stress even after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. We use the b value to characterize the stress state on the fault of the Antakya 2023 main events, being b inversely proportional to the stress. The small magnitude seismicity occurring on the maximum slip fault-patches does not allow the b value estimation. This represents a strong indication that the maximum slip zone released most of the stress previously accumulated. Conversely, the lowest b values are located at the bends of the faults and close to the nucleation zone suggesting that, there, still exists not released stress implying that it could be reactivated in the future.

Statistics of seismicity to investigate the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest.

The knowledge of the dynamic of the Campi Flegrei calderic system is a primary goal to mitigate the volcanic risk in one of the most densely populated volcanic areas in the world. From 1950 to 1990 Campi Flegrei suffered three bradyseismic crises with a total uplift of 4.3 m. After 20 years of subsidence, the uplift started again in 2005 accompained by a low increment of the seismicity rate. In 2012 an increment in the seismic energy release and a variation in the gas composition of the fumaroles of Solfatara (in the central area of the caldera) were recorded. Since then, a slow and progressive increase in phenomena continued until today. We analyze the INGV - Osservatorio Vesuviano seismic catalogue of Campi Flegrei from 2000 to 2020 in order to look for any variation in the seismic parameters and compare them with geochemical monitored ones. A remarkable correlation between independent variables of earthquake cumulative number, CO/CO2 values and vertical ground deformation reveals a likely common origin. Moreover the correlation between all the variables here analysed enlightens that the same origin can cause the temporal behavior of all these variables. We interpret the seismological, geochemical and geodetic observable in terms of the injection of magmatic fluids into the hydrothermal system or its pressurization.

Forecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude.

The majority of strong earthquakes takes place a few hours after a mainshock, promoting the interest for a real time post-seismic forecasting, which is, however, very inefficient because of the incompleteness of available catalogs. Here we present a novel method that uses, as only information, the ground velocity recorded during the first 30 min after the mainshock and does not require that signals are transferred and elaborated by operational units. The method considers the logarithm of the mainshock ground velocity, its peak value defined as the perceived magnitude and the subsequent temporal decay. We conduct a forecast test on the nine M  ≥ 6 mainshocks that have occurred since 2013 in the Aegean area. We are able to forecast the number of aftershocks recorded during the first 3 days after each mainshock with an accuracy smaller than 18% in all cases but one with an accuracy of 36%.