Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic.

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.

Movements of a deep-water fish: establishing marine fisheries management boundaries in coastal Arctic waters.

Management boundaries that define populations or stocks of fish form the basis of fisheries planning. In the Arctic, decreasing sea ice extent is driving increasing fisheries development, highlighting the need for ecological data to inform management. In Cumberland Sound, southwest Baffin Island, an indigenous community fishery was established in 1987 targeting Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) through the ice. Following its development, the Cumberland Sound Management Boundary (CSMB) was designated and a total allowable catch (TAC) assigned to the fishery. The CSMB was based on a sink population of Greenland halibut resident in the northern section of the Sound. Recent fishing activities south of the CSMB, however, raised concerns over fish residency, the effectiveness of the CSMB and the sustainability of the community-based winter fishery. Through acoustic telemetry monitoring at depths between 400 and 1200 m, and environmental and fisheries data, this study examined the movement patterns of Greenland halibut relative to the CSMB, the biotic and abiotic factors driving fish movement and the dynamics of the winter fishery. Greenland halibut undertook clear seasonal movements between the southern and northern regions of the Sound driven by temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sea ice cover with most fish crossing the CSMB on an annual basis. Over the lifespan of the fishery, landfast ice cover initially declined and then became variable, limiting accessibility to favored fisher locations. Concomitantly, catch per unit effort declined, reflecting the effect of changing ice conditions on the location and effort of the fishery. Ultimately, these telemetry data revealed that fishers now target less productive sites outside of their favored areas and, with continued decreases in ice, the winter fishery might cease to exist. In addition, these novel telemetry data revealed that the CSMB is ineffective and led to its relocation to the entrance of the Sound in 2014. The community fishery can now develop an open-water fishery in addition to the winter fishery to exploit the TAC, which will ensure the longevity of the fishery under projected climate-change scenarios. Telemetry shows great promise as a tool for understanding deep-water species and for directly informing fisheries management of these ecosystems that are inherently complex to study.