A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir.

Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.

Processes Underlying Rabies Virus Incursions across US-Canada Border as Revealed by Whole-Genome Phylogeography.

Disease control programs aim to constrain and reduce the spread of infection. Human disease interventions such as wildlife vaccination play a major role in determining the limits of a pathogen's spatial distribution. Over the past few decades, a raccoon-specific variant of rabies virus (RRV) has invaded large areas of eastern North America. Although expansion into Canada has been largely prevented through vaccination along the US border, several outbreaks have occurred in Canada. Applying phylogeographic approaches to 289 RRV whole-genome sequences derived from isolates collected in Canada and adjacent US states, we examined the processes underlying these outbreaks. RRV incursions were attributable predominantly to systematic virus leakage of local strains across areas along the border where vaccination has been conducted but also to single stochastic events such as long-distance translocations. These results demonstrate the utility of phylogeographic analysis of pathogen genomes for understanding transboundary outbreaks.

Relative abundance of Mycobacterium bovis molecular types in cattle: a simulation study of potential epidemiological drivers.

BACKGROUND: The patterns of relative species abundance are commonly studied in ecology and epidemiology to provide insights into underlying dynamical processes. Molecular types (MVLA-types) of Mycobacterium bovis, the causal agent of bovine tuberculosis, are now routinely recorded in culture-confirmed bovine tuberculosis cases in Northern Ireland. In this study, we use ecological approaches and simulation modelling to investigate the distribution of relative abundances of MVLA-types and its potential drivers. We explore four biologically plausible hypotheses regarding the processes driving molecular type relative abundances: sampling and speciation; structuring of the pathogen population; historical changes in population size; and transmission heterogeneity (superspreading). RESULTS: Northern Irish herd-level MVLA-type surveillance shows a right-skewed distribution of MVLA-types, with a small number of types present at very high frequencies and the majority of types very rare. We demonstrate that this skew is too extreme to be accounted for by simple neutral ecological processes. Simulation results indicate that the process of MVLA-type speciation and the manner in which the MVLA-typing loci were chosen in Northern Ireland cannot account for the observed skew. Similarly, we find that pathogen population structure, assuming for example a reservoir of infection in a separate host, would drive the relative abundance distribution in the opposite direction to that observed, generating more even abundances of molecular types. However, we find that historical increases in bovine tuberculosis prevalence and/or transmission heterogeneity (superspreading) are both capable of generating the skewed MVLA-type distribution, consistent with findings of previous work examining the distribution of molecular types in human tuberculosis. CONCLUSION: Although the distribution of MVLA-type abundances does not fit classical neutral predictions, our simulations show that increases in pathogen population size and/or superspreading are consistent with the pattern observed, even in the absence of selective pressures acting on the system.

Genomic analysis of the multi-host pathogen Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae reveals extensive recombination as well as the existence of three generalist clades with wide geographic distribution.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about how bacterial populations are structured is an important prerequisite for studying their ecology and evolutionary history and facilitates inquiry into host specificity, pathogenicity, geographic dispersal and molecular epidemiology. Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae is an opportunistic pathogen that is currently reemerging in both the swine and poultry industries globally. This bacterium sporadically causes mortalities in captive marine mammals, and has recently been implicated in large-scale wildlife die-offs. However, despite its economic relevance and broad geographic and host distribution, including zoonotic potential, the global diversity, recombination rates, and population structure of this bacterium remain poorly characterized. In this study, we conducted a broad-scale genomic comparison of E. rhusiopathiae based on a diverse collection of isolates in order to address these knowledge gaps. RESULTS: Eighty-three E. rhusiopathiae isolates from a range of host species and geographic origins, isolated between 1958 and 2014, were sequenced and assembled using both reference-based mapping and de novo assembly. We found that a high proportion of the core genome (58 %) had undergone recombination. Therefore, we used three independent methods robust to the presence of recombination to define the population structure of this species: a phylogenetic tree based on a set of conserved protein sequences, in silico chromosome painting, and network analysis. All three methods were broadly concordant and supported the existence of three distinct clades within the species E. rhusiopathiae. Although we found some evidence of host and geographical clustering, each clade included isolates from diverse host species and from multiple continents. CONCLUSIONS: Using whole genome sequence data, we confirm recent suggestions that E. rhusiopathiae is a weakly clonal species that has been shaped extensively by homologous recombination. Despite frequent recombination, we can reliably identify three distinct clades that do not clearly segregate by host species or geographic origin. Our results provide an essential baseline for future molecular epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary studies of E. rhusiopathiae and facilitate comparisons to other recombinogenic, multi-host bacteria.

Limitations of variable number of tandem repeat typing identified through whole genome sequencing of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis on a national and herd level.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative bacterium of Johne's disease in dairy cattle, is widespread in the Canadian dairy industry and has significant economic and animal welfare implications. An understanding of the population dynamics of MAP can be used to identify introduction events, improve control efforts and target transmission pathways, although this requires an adequate understanding of MAP diversity and distribution between herds and across the country. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) offers a detailed assessment of the SNP-level diversity and genetic relationship of isolates, whereas several molecular typing techniques used to investigate the molecular epidemiology of MAP, such as variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) typing, target relatively unstable repetitive elements in the genome that may be too unpredictable to draw accurate conclusions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diversity of bovine MAP isolates in Canadian dairy herds using WGS and then determine if VNTR typing can distinguish truly related and unrelated isolates. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis based on 3,039 SNPs identified through WGS of 124 MAP isolates identified eight genetically distinct subtypes in dairy herds from seven Canadian provinces, with the dominant type including over 80% of MAP isolates. VNTR typing of 527 MAP isolates identified 12 types, including "bison type" isolates, from seven different herds. At a national level, MAP isolates differed from each other by 1-2 to 239-240 SNPs, regardless of whether they belonged to the same or different VNTR types. A herd-level analysis of MAP isolates demonstrated that VNTR typing may both over-estimate and under-estimate the relatedness of MAP isolates found within a single herd. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of multiple MAP subtypes in Canada suggests multiple introductions into the country including what has now become one dominant type, an important finding for Johne's disease control. VNTR typing often failed to identify closely and distantly related isolates, limiting the applicability of using this typing scheme to study the molecular epidemiology of MAP at a national and herd-level.

Analysis of the long control region of bovine papillomavirus type 1 associated with sarcoids in equine hosts indicates multiple cross-species transmission events and phylogeographical structure.

Papillomaviruses are a family of slowly evolving DNA viruses and their evolution is commonly linked to that of their host species. However, whilst bovine papillomavirus-1 (BPV-1) primarily causes warts in its natural host, the cow, it can also cause locally aggressive and invasive skin tumours in equids, known as sarcoids, and thus provides a rare contemporary example of cross-species transmission of a papillomavirus. Here, we describe the first phylogenetic analysis of BPV-1 in equine sarcoids to our knowledge, allowing us to explore the evolutionary history of BPV-1 and investigate its cross-species association with equids. A phylogenetic analysis of the BPV-1 transcriptional promoter region (the long control region or LCR) was conducted on 15 bovine and 116 equine samples from four continents. Incorporating previous estimates for evolutionary rates in papillomavirus implied that the genetic diversity in the LCR variants was ancient and predated domestication of both equids and cattle. The phylogeny demonstrated geographical segregation into an ancestral group (African, South American and Australian samples), and a more recently derived, largely European clade. Whilst our data are consistent with BPV-1 originating in cattle, we found evidence of multiple, probably relatively recent, cross-species transmission events into horses. We also demonstrated the high prevalence of one particular sequence variant (variant 20), and suggest this may indicate that this variant shows a fitness advantage in equids. Although strong host specificity remains the norm in papillomaviruses, our results demonstrate that exceptions to this rule exist and can become epidemiologically relevant.

Whole genome sequencing reveals local transmission patterns of Mycobacterium bovis in sympatric cattle and badger populations.

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) technology holds great promise as a tool for the forensic epidemiology of bacterial pathogens. It is likely to be particularly useful for studying the transmission dynamics of an observed epidemic involving a largely unsampled 'reservoir' host, as for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British and Irish cattle and badgers. BTB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis, a member of the M. tuberculosis complex that also includes the aetiological agent for human TB. In this study, we identified a spatio-temporally linked group of 26 cattle and 4 badgers infected with the same Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) type of M. bovis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between sequences identified differences that were consistent with bacterial lineages being persistent on or near farms for several years, despite multiple clear whole herd tests in the interim. Comparing WGS data to mathematical models showed good correlations between genetic divergence and spatial distance, but poor correspondence to the network of cattle movements or within-herd contacts. Badger isolates showed between zero and four SNP differences from the nearest cattle isolate, providing evidence for recent transmissions between the two hosts. This is the first direct genetic evidence of M. bovis persistence on farms over multiple outbreaks with a continued, ongoing interaction with local badgers. However, despite unprecedented resolution, directionality of transmission cannot be inferred at this stage. Despite the often notoriously long timescales between time of infection and time of sampling for TB, our results suggest that WGS data alone can provide insights into TB epidemiology even where detailed contact data are not available, and that more extensive sampling and analysis will allow for quantification of the extent and direction of transmission between cattle and badgers.

Combining genomics and epidemiology to analyse bi-directional transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in a multi-host system.

Quantifying pathogen transmission in multi-host systems is difficult, as exemplified in bovine tuberculosis (bTB) systems, but is crucial for control. The agent of bTB, Mycobacterium bovis, persists in cattle populations worldwide, often where potential wildlife reservoirs exist. However, the relative contribution of different host species to bTB persistence is generally unknown. In Britain, the role of badgers in infection persistence in cattle is highly contentious, despite decades of research and control efforts. We applied Bayesian phylogenetic and machine-learning approaches to bacterial genome data to quantify the roles of badgers and cattle in M. bovis infection dynamics in the presence of data biases. Our results suggest that transmission occurs more frequently from badgers to cattle than vice versa (10.4x in the most likely model) and that within-species transmission occurs at higher rates than between-species transmission for both. If representative, our results suggest that control operations should target both cattle and badgers.

Application of high-throughput sequencing to whole rabies viral genome characterisation and its use for phylogenetic re-evaluation of a raccoon strain incursion into the province of Ontario.

Raccoon rabies remains a serious public health problem throughout much of the eastern seaboard of North America due to the urban nature of the reservoir host and the many challenges inherent in multi-jurisdictional efforts to administer co-ordinated and comprehensive wildlife rabies control programmes. Better understanding of the mechanisms of spread of rabies virus can play a significant role in guiding such control efforts. To facilitate a detailed molecular epidemiological study of raccoon rabies virus movements across eastern North America, we developed a methodology to efficiently determine whole genome sequences of hundreds of viral samples. The workflow combines the generation of a limited number of overlapping amplicons covering the complete viral genome and use of high throughput sequencing technology. The value of this approach is demonstrated through a retrospective phylogenetic analysis of an outbreak of raccoon rabies which occurred in the province of Ontario between 1999 and 2005. As demonstrated by the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms detected, whole genome sequence data were far more effective than single gene sequences in discriminating between samples and this facilitated the generation of more robust and informative phylogenies that yielded insights into the spatio-temporal pattern of viral spread. With minor modification this approach could be applied to other rabies virus variants thereby facilitating greatly improved phylogenetic inference and thus better understanding of the spread of this serious zoonotic disease. Such information will inform the most appropriate strategies for rabies control in wildlife reservoirs.

Use of bacterial whole-genome sequencing to investigate local persistence and spread in bovine tuberculosis.

Mycobacterium bovis is the causal agent of bovine tuberculosis, one of the most important diseases currently facing the UK cattle industry. Here, we use high-density whole genome sequencing (WGS) in a defined sub-population of M. bovis in 145 cattle across 66 herd breakdowns to gain insights into local spread and persistence. We show that despite low divergence among isolates, WGS can in principle expose contributions of under-sampled host populations to M. bovis transmission. However, we demonstrate that in our data such a signal is due to molecular type switching, which had been previously undocumented for M. bovis. Isolates from farms with a known history of direct cattle movement between them did not show a statistical signal of higher genetic similarity. Despite an overall signal of genetic isolation by distance, genetic distances also showed no apparent relationship with spatial distance among affected farms over distances <5 km. Using simulations, we find that even over the brief evolutionary timescale covered by our data, Bayesian phylogeographic approaches are feasible. Applying such approaches showed that M. bovis dispersal in this system is heterogeneous but slow overall, averaging 2 km/year. These results confirm that widespread application of WGS to M. bovis will bring novel and important insights into the dynamics of M. bovis spread and persistence, but that the current questions most pertinent to control will be best addressed using approaches that more directly integrate WGS with additional epidemiological data.

Genome-Wide Diversity and Phylogeography of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Canadian Dairy Cattle.

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the causative bacterium of Johne's disease (JD) in ruminants. The control of JD in the dairy industry is challenging, but can be improved with a better understanding of the diversity and distribution of MAP subtypes. Previously established molecular typing techniques used to differentiate MAP have not been sufficiently discriminatory and/or reliable to accurately assess the population structure. In this study, the genetic diversity of 182 MAP isolates representing all Canadian provinces was compared to the known global diversity, using single nucleotide polymorphisms identified through whole genome sequencing. MAP isolates from Canada represented a subset of the known global diversity, as there were global isolates intermingled with Canadian isolates, as well as multiple global subtypes that were not found in Canada. One Type III and six "Bison type" isolates were found in Canada as well as one Type II subtype that represented 86% of all Canadian isolates. Rarefaction estimated larger subtype richness in Québec than in other Canadian provinces using a strict definition of MAP subtypes and lower subtype richness in the Atlantic region using a relaxed definition. Significant phylogeographic clustering was observed at the inter-provincial but not at the intra-provincial level, although most major clades were found in all provinces. The large number of shared subtypes among provinces suggests that cattle movement is a major driver of MAP transmission at the herd level, which is further supported by the lack of spatial clustering on an intra-provincial scale.