Prediction of outcomes for high-count monoclonal B lymphocytosis using an epigenetic and immunogenetic signature.

ABSTRACT: Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) progresses to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring therapy at 1% to 5% per year. Improved prediction of progression would greatly benefit individuals with MBL. Patients with CLL separate into 3 distinct epigenetic subtypes (epitypes) with high prognostic significance, and recently the intermediate epitype has been shown to be enriched for high-risk immunoglobulin lambda variable (IGLV) 3-21 rearrangements, impacting outcomes for these patients. Here, we employed this combined strategy to generate the epigenetic and light chain immunoglobulin (ELCLV3-21) signature to classify 219 individuals with MBL. The ELCLV3-21 high-risk signature distinguished MBL individuals with a high probability of progression (39.9% and 71.1% at 5 and 10 years, respectively). ELCLV3-21 improved the accuracy of predicting time to therapy for individuals with MBL compared with other established prognostic indicators, including the CLL international prognostic index (c-statistic, 0.767 vs 0.668, respectively). Comparing ELCLV3-21 risk groups in MBL vs a cohort of 226 patients with CLL revealed ELCLV3-21 high-risk individuals with MBL had significantly shorter time to therapy (P = .003) and reduced overall survival (P = .03) compared with ELCLV3-21 low-risk individuals with CLL. These results highlight the power of the ELCLV3-21 approach to identify individuals with a higher likelihood of adverse clinical outcome and may provide a more accurate approach to classify individuals with small B-cell clones.

Association of early menarche with breast tumor molecular features and recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Early menarche is an established risk factor for breast cancer but its molecular contribution to tumor biology and prognosis remains unclear. METHODS: We profiled transcriptome-wide gene expression in breast tumors (N = 846) and tumor-adjacent normal tissues (N = 666) from women in the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS) to investigate whether early menarche (age < 12) is associated with tumor molecular and prognostic features in women with breast cancer. Multivariable linear regression and pathway analyses using competitive gene set enrichment analysis were conducted in both tumor and adjacent-normal tissue and externally validated in TCGA (N = 116). Subgroup analyses stratified on ER-status based on the tumor were also performed. PAM50 signatures were used for tumor molecular subtyping and to generate proliferation and risk of recurrence scores. We created a gene expression score using LASSO regression to capture early menarche based on 28 genes from FDR-significant pathways in breast tumor tissue in NHS and tested its association with 10-year disease-free survival in both NHS (N = 836) and METABRIC (N = 952). RESULTS: Early menarche was significantly associated with 369 individual genes in adjacent-normal tissues implicated in extracellular matrix, cell adhesion, and invasion (FDR ≤ 0.1). Early menarche was associated with upregulation of cancer hallmark pathways (18 significant pathways in tumor, 23 in tumor-adjacent normal, FDR ≤ 0.1) related to proliferation (e.g. Myc, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, cell cycle), oxidative stress (e.g. oxidative phosphorylation, unfolded protein response), and inflammation (e.g. pro-inflammatory cytokines IFN α and IFN γ ). Replication in TCGA confirmed these trends. Early menarche was associated with significantly higher PAM50 proliferation scores (ß = 0.082 [0.02-0.14]), odds of aggressive molecular tumor subtypes (basal-like, OR = 1.84 [1.18-2.85] and HER2-enriched, OR = 2.32 [1.46-3.69]), and PAM50 risk of recurrence score (ß = 4.81 [1.71-7.92]). Our NHS-derived early menarche gene expression signature was significantly associated with worse 10-year disease-free survival in METABRIC (N = 952, HR = 1.58 [1.10-2.25]). CONCLUSIONS: Early menarche is associated with more aggressive molecular tumor characteristics and its gene expression signature within tumors is associated with worse 10-year disease-free survival among women with breast cancer. As the age of onset of menarche continues to decline, understanding its relationship to breast tumor characteristics and prognosis may lead to novel secondary prevention strategies.

Multivariate testing and effect size measures for batch effect evaluation in radiomic features.

While precision medicine applications of radiomics analysis are promising, differences in image acquisition can cause "batch effects" that reduce reproducibility and affect downstream predictive analyses. Harmonization methods such as ComBat have been developed to correct these effects, but evaluation methods for quantifying batch effects are inconsistent. In this study, we propose the use of the multivariate statistical test PERMANOVA and the Robust Effect Size Index (RESI) to better quantify and characterize batch effects in radiomics data. We evaluate these methods in both simulated and real radiomics features extracted from full-field digital mammography (FFDM) data. PERMANOVA demonstrated higher power than standard univariate statistical testing, and RESI was able to interpretably quantify the effect size of site at extremely large sample sizes. These methods show promise as more powerful and interpretable methods for the detection and quantification of batch effects in radiomics studies.

The Importance of Estimating Excess Deaths Regionally During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

National or statewide estimates of excess deaths have limited value to understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic regionally. We assessed excess deaths in a 9-county geographically defined population that had low rates of COVID-19 and widescale availability of testing early in the pandemic, well-annotated clinical data, and coverage by 2 medical examiner's offices. We compared mortality rates (MRs) per 100,000 person-years in 2020 and 2021 with those in the 2019 reference period and MR ratios (MRRs). In 2020 and 2021, 177 and 219 deaths, respectively, were attributed to COVID-19 (MR = 52 and 66 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). COVID-19 MRs were highest in males, older persons, those living in rural areas, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. Compared with 2019, we observed a 10% excess death rate in 2020 (MRR = 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.15]), with excess deaths in females, older adults, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. In contrast, we did not observe excess deaths overall in 2021 compared with 2019 (MRR = 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.10]). However, those aged 18 to 39 years (MRR = 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.80) and those with 0 or 1 chronic condition (MRR = 1.28 [95% CI, 1.05 to 1.56]) or 7 or more chronic conditions (MRR = 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.15]) had increased mortality compared with 2019. This work highlights the value of leveraging regional populations that experienced a similar pandemic wave timeline, mitigation strategies, testing availability, and data quality.

Breast Cancer Polygenic-Risk Score Influence on Risk-Reducing Endocrine Therapy Use: Genetic Risk Estimate (GENRE) Trial 1-Year and 2-Year Follow-Up.

Refinement of breast cancer risk estimates with a polygenic-risk score (PRS) may improve uptake of risk-reducing endocrine therapy (ET). A previous clinical trial assessed the influence of adding a PRS to traditional risk estimates on ET use. We stratified participants according to PRS-refined breast cancer risk and evaluated ET use and ET-related quality of life (QOL) at 1-year (previously reported) and 2-year follow-ups. Of 151 participants, 58 (38.4%) initiated ET, and 22 (14.6%) discontinued ET by 2 years; 42 (27.8%) and 36 (23.8%) participants were using ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, respectively. At the 2-year follow-up, 39% of participants with a lifetime breast cancer risk of 40.1% to 100.0%, 18% with a 20.1% to 40.0% risk, and 16% with a 0.0% to 20.0% risk were taking ET (overall P = 0.01). Moreover, 40% of participants whose breast cancer risk increased by 10% or greater with addition of the PRS to a traditional breast cancer-risk model were taking ET versus 0% whose risk decreased by 10% or greater (P = 0.004). QOL was similar for participants taking or not taking ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, although most who discontinued ET did so because of adverse effects. However, these QOL results may have been skewed by the long interval between QOL surveys and lack of baseline QOL data. PRS-informed breast cancer prevention counseling has a lasting, but waning, effect over time. Additional follow-up studies are needed to address the effect of PRS on ET adherence, ET-related QOL, supplemental breast cancer screening, and other risk-reducing behaviors. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Risk-reducing medications for breast cancer are considerably underused. Informing women at risk with precise and individualized risk assessment tools may substantially affect the incidence of breast cancer. In our study, a risk assessment tool (IBIS-polygenic-risk score) yielded promising results, with 39% of women at highest risk starting preventive medication.

Breast Cancer Risk Perceptions Among Underserved, Hispanic Women: Implications for Risk-Based Approaches to Screening.

BACKGROUND: Understanding factors that shape breast cancer risk perceptions is essential for implementing risk-based approaches to breast cancer detection and prevention. This study aimed to assess multilevel factors, including prior screening behavior, shaping underserved, Hispanic women's perceived risk for breast cancer. METHODS: Secondary analysis of survey data from Hispanic women (N = 1325, 92% Spanish speaking, 64% < 50) enrolled in a large randomized controlled trial. Analyses were performed in two cohorts to account for the role of age on screening guideline recommendations (< 50 and 50 +). For each cohort, we examined differences in three common measures of perceived risk of breast cancer (percent lifetime, ordinal lifetime, comparative) by participant factors with chi-square or Kruskal-Wallis tests, as appropriate. Multivariate analyses examined the association between mammography history with percent perceived lifetime risk (outcome > 10 vs ≤ 10%). RESULTS: Overall, 75% reported a lifetime risk between 0 and 10%, 96% rated their ordinal risk as "not high," and 50% rated their comparative risk as "much lower." Women < 50 with a family history of breast cancer reported significantly higher levels of perceived risk across all three measures. Among women 50 + , those reporting lower levels of perceived risk were significantly more likely to be Spanish speaking. No significant association was observed between mammography history and percent lifetime risk of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Factors shaping breast cancer risk perceptions differ by age. Prior screening may play less of role in constructing risk perceptions. Research is needed to develop culturally and linguistically appropriate strategies to improve implementation of risk-based screening.

Understanding Benign Breast Disease and Subsequent Breast Cancer in Hispanic White Females: A Step Closer to Evidence-Based Management.

INTRODUCTION: Although Hispanic White (HW) females have a lower incidence of breast cancer than non-Hispanic White (NHW) females, breast cancer risk is unclear for HW females after benign breast disease (BBD). METHODS: We compared BBD characteristics and subsequent breast cancer risk among HW and NHW females in New Mexico using a population-based collection of benign breast biopsies (1996-2007). BBD was categorized as nonproliferative disease (NPD), proliferative disease without atypia (PDWA), or atypical hyperplasia (AH). Breast cancer risk was assessed as absolute risk (AR) using cumulative incidence and RR by comparing the number of breast cancer events in BBDs to non-BBD. RESULTS: This study included 3,684 HW and 6,587 NHW females with BBD. HW females had similar proportions of NPD (58.6% vs. 54.3%), PDWA (21.4% vs. 23.5%), and AH (3.6% vs. 3.3%) as NHW females. Breast cancer risk among all females with BBD was higher than population-based expected rates (RR, 1.87) and was similar for HW and NHW subgroups (RR = 1.99 vs. 1.84). As expected, breast cancer risk increased with increasing BBD severity, both overall [RR, 1.81 (NPD), 1.85 (PDWA), and 3.10 (AH)] and in the HW and NHW subgroups. Adjusted AR of breast cancer at 5 years also increased with the severity of BBD (HW vs. NHW; NPD: 1.4% vs. 2.1%; PDWA: 1.5% vs. 2.7%; AH: 6% vs. 4.8%). CONCLUSIONS: We found similar breast cancer RRs and ARs in HW and NHW. Risk counseling should ensure that HW females receive breast cancer clinical management warranted by their similar absolute risks. IMPACT: The present population-based provides evidence for the clinical management of HW females with BBD for the prevention of breast cancer.

Tumor mutational load is prognostic for progression to therapy among high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis.

ABSTRACT: High-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL) is a precursor condition to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We have shown that among individuals with HCMBL, the CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is prognostic for time-to-first therapy (TTFT). Little is known about the prognostic impact of somatically mutated genes among individuals with HCMBL. We sequenced DNA from 371 individuals with HCMBL using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL to identify high-impact mutations. We compared the sequencing results with that of our treatment-naïve CLL cohort (N = 855) and used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with TTFT. The frequencies of any mutated genes were lower in HCMBL (52%) than CLL (70%). At 10 years, 37% of individuals with HCMBL with any mutated gene had progressed requiring treatment compared with 10% among individuals with HCMBL with no mutations; this led to 5.4-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 2.6-11.0) among HCMBL with any mutated gene vs none, independent of CLL-IPI. When considering individuals with low risk of progression according to CLL-IPI, those with HCMBL with any mutations had 4.3-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 1.6-11.8) vs those with none. Finally, when considering both CLL-IPI and any mutated gene status, we observed individuals with HCMBL who were high risk for both prognostic factors had worse prognosis than patients with low-risk CLL (ie, 5-year progression rate of 32% vs 21%, respectively). Among HCMBL, the frequency of somatically mutated genes at diagnosis is lower than that of CLL. Accounting for both the number of mutated genes and CLL-IPI can identify individuals with HCMBL with more aggressive clinical course.