Use of a rapid electronic survey methodology to estimate blood donors' potential exposure to emerging infectious diseases: Application of a statistically representative sampling methodology to assess risk in US blood centers.

Risk assessments of transfusion-transmitted emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are complicated by the fact that blood donors' demographics and behaviors can be different from the general population. Therefore, when assessing potential blood donor exposure to EIDs, the use of general population characteristics, such as U.S. travel statistics, may invoke uncertainties that result in inaccurate estimates of blood donor exposure. This may, in turn, lead to the creation of donor deferral policies that do not match actual risk. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This article reports on the development of a system to rapidly assess EID risks for a nationally representative portion of the U.S. blood donor population. To assess the effectiveness of this system, a test survey was developed and deployed to a statistically representative sample frame of blood donors from five blood collecting organizations. Donors were directed to an online survey to ascertain their recent travel and potential exposure to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). RESULTS: A total of 7128 responses were received from 54 256 invitations. The age-adjusted estimated total number of blood donors potentially exposed to MERS-CoV was approximately 15 640 blood donors compared to a lower U.S. general population-based estimate of 9610 blood donors. CONCLUSION: The structured donor demographic sample-based data provided an assessment of blood donors' potential exposure to an emerging pathogen that was 63% larger than the U.S. population-based estimate. This illustrates the need for tailored blood donor-based EID risk assessments that provide more specific demographic risk intelligence and can inform appropriate regulatory decision making.

Diagnosis and Management of Group a Streptococcal Pharyngitis in the United States, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines for the diagnosis of group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis recommend the use of a rapid antigen detection test (RADT) and/or bacterial culture. This study evaluated the overall diagnosis and treatment of acute pharyngitis in the United States, including predictors of test type and antibiotic prescription. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of pharyngitis events from 2011 through 2015 was conducted using the MarketScan commercial/Medicare databases. A pharyngitis event was defined as occurring within 2 weeks from the index visit. Patient and provider characteristics were examined across 5 testing categories: RADT, RADT plus culture, other tests, nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT), and no test. Multivariate models were used to identify significant predictors of NAAT use and antibiotic prescription. RESULTS: A total of 18.8 million acute pharyngitis events were identified in 11.6 million patients. Roughly two-thirds of events (68.2%) occurred once, and roughly a third of patients (29.1%) required additional follow-up, but hospitalization was rare (0.3%). Across all events, 43% were diagnosed by RADT, while 20% were diagnosed by RADT plus culture. The proportion of events diagnosed by NAAT increased 3.5-fold from 2011 to 2015 (0.06% vs 0.27%). Antibiotic use was frequent (49.3%), less often in combination with RADT plus culture (31.2%) or NAAT alone (34.5%) but significantly more often with RADT alone (53.4%) or no test (57.1%). Pediatricians were significantly less likely than other providers to prescribe antibiotics in their patients, regardless of patient age (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic use for sore throat remains common, with many clinicians not following current guidelines for diagnosis of GAS pharyngitis. Diagnosis of GAS pharyngitis using RADT plus culture or NAAT alone was associated with lower use of antibiotics. Diagnostic testing can help lower the incidence of inappropriate antibiotic use, and inclusion of NAAT in the clinical guidelines for GAS pharyngitis warrants consideration.

Recent viral infection in US blood donors and health-related quality of life (HRQOL).

PURPOSE: Blood donors are considered to be one of the healthiest populations, but relatively little is known about their perceived quality of life. The objective was to examine HRQOL in donors infected with HIV, HBV, HCV or HTLV and a comparison group. METHODS: Donors with confirmed viral infection (cases) and donors who tested false-positive (controls) participated in a multicenter study of US blood donors (2010-2013), funded by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI). HRQOL was measured by the EuroQol Five Dimension (EQ-5D) instrument and EQ-5D visual analogue scale (VAS). The lower 25th ‰ of EQ-5D index or VAS score of controls was defined as a "lower HRQOL." RESULTS: A total of 1574 controls completed the HRQOL assessment with a mean EQ-5D index of 0.94 (SD = 0.10) and EQ-VAS of 87.6 (SD = 10.6). Mean EQ-5D index for 192 HIV-, 315 HCV- and 195 HTLV-positive donors were significantly lower than the controls (0.86, 0.83 and 0.87; SD = 0.18, 0.20 and 0.16, respectively, p < 0.001). HBV-positive donors (n = 290) had a similar mean EQ-5D index (0.93, SD = 0.14, p = 0.05) to controls. Anxiety/depression was reported by 34 % of cases, compared with 13 % of controls. In multivariable modeling, the odds of lower HRQOL in HIV, HBV, HCV and HTLV cases were 2.1, 1.6, 2.6 and 2.3 times that of controls, respectively (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: HRQOL reported by blood donors with recent viral infections was relatively high but lower than controls. On average, HRQOL among HCV-positive donors was the lowest and HBV-positive donors reported scores similar to donors without infection.

Motivations for donating and attitudes toward screening policies in US blood donors with viral infection.

BACKGROUND: Differences in motivating factors that contribute to the decision to donate blood between infected and uninfected donors may help to identify areas for improving donor education. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: As part of a risk factor study, confirmed-positive donors (cases) based on serology-only (human T-lymphotropic virus [HTLV]) or serology and nucleic acid testing (NAT) or NAT-only (human immunodeficiency virus [HIV], hepatitis B virus [HBV], hepatitis C virus [HCV]), and serology-unconfirmed, NAT-negative false-positive donors (controls) were asked about motivations and opinions toward blood donation. "Test seeking" was inferred if a donor answered "yes" to "I wanted to get my test results" and one of the following: "blood center testing is confidential," "free," "more accurate than other test centers," or "tests will identify problems with my blood." Cases were compared to controls using descriptive and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: Whether a case or control, the most common donation reason was "to help someone in need" (>90% in each group). After adjusting for demographic characteristics, test seeking was not significantly associated with infection status. Test seeking was more common in first-time, younger males and nonwhite, non-Hispanic donors. Of donors with HIV, 13% considered selection policies to be unfair, compared with 1, 2, 0.5, and 6% of donors with HBV, HCV, and HTLV and controls, respectively (adjusted odds ratio for HIV cases vs. controls, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-6.7). CONCLUSIONS: Most donors give to help those in need, including HIV-positive donors. Our results establish a baseline from which additional studies can be compared focused on alternate ways to reduce noncompliance and improved messaging to ensure that high-risk potential donors understand the reasons for blood donor screening policies.

Development of a multisystem surveillance database for transfusion-transmitted infections among blood donors in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of positive test results for transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) among blood donors is an important index of safety; thus, appropriate monitoring is critical, particularly when there are changes in policies affecting donor suitability. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Testing algorithms from three large blood systems were reviewed and consensus definitions for a surveillance-positive result for hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV) established. In addition, information on each donation, including donor demographics and location, was collected. Combined data were analyzed to characterize the epidemiology of TTIs by person, place, and time. RESULTS: Data from 14.8 million donations were collected for 2011 to 2012, representing more than 50% of the US blood supply. Surveillance-positive rates per 10,000 donations were as follows: HBV, 0.76; HCV, 2.0; HIV, 0.28; and HTLV 0.34. Rates did not vary between the 2 years, although there was variation within a year. With the exception of HTLV, rates were higher among males, and all rates were higher among first-time donations. Window-period donations (those positive only in nucleic acid tests) were infrequent (HBV, 13; HCV, 60; HIV, 14) during the 2-year period. Frequencies of surveillance-positive results varied by donor age and residence location. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that standardized data from multiple major US blood systems can be combined and analyzed for change. However, TTI frequencies are low, impacting their sensitivity to change. Furthermore, observed fluctuations in TTI frequencies may be secondary to changes in blood donor demographics rather than necessarily reflecting the immediate impact of policy modification.

Downregulation of Cytokines and Chemokines by GB Virus C After Transmission Via Blood Transfusion in HIV-Positive Blood Recipients.

BACKGROUND: An association between GB virus C (GBV-C) and improved outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been reported in HIV-positive individuals with active GBV-C coinfection. This study provides insights into the immune mechanisms underlying the protective role of GBV-C in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: The concentrations of 64 cytokines and chemokines were measured in plasma samples obtained from the Viral Activation Transfusion Study cohort before transfusion and longitudinally from 30 patients positive for both HIV and GBV-C (hereafter, "cases") and 30 patients positive for HIV and negative for GBV-C (hereafter, "controls"). RESULTS: Cases had lower HIV viral loads and higher CD4 T-cell counts than controls after acquisition of GBV-C infection. Most of the modulated cytokines and chemokines were reduced after GBV-C detection, including many proinflammatory cytokines, suggesting an overall antiinflammatory effect of GBV-C in HIV-positive subjects. Most pathways and functions of the measured cytokines were downregulated in cases, except cell death pathways, which were upregulated in various cell subsets in the 3 months after GBV-C detection. CONCLUSIONS: GBV-C has a protective effect, in part through a competition mechanism leading to decreased inflammation and improved HIV disease outcome in cases. Further studies are necessary to establish whether GBV-C may have deleterious effects on the host at the cellular level, including depleting the cells that are the targets of HIV.

Risk factors for retrovirus and hepatitis virus infections in accepted blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Risk factor surveillance among infected blood donors provides information on the effectiveness of eligibility assessment and is critical for reducing risk of transfusion-transmitted infection. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: American Red Cross, Blood Systems, Inc., New York Blood Center, and OneBlood participated in a case-control study from 2010 to 2013. Donors with serologic and nucleic acid testing (NAT) or NAT-only confirmed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), or serology-confirmed human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) infections (cases) and donors with false-positive results (controls) were interviewed for putative behavioral and demographic risks. Frequencies and adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from multivariable logistic regression analyses for each exposure in cases compared to controls are reported. RESULTS: In the study, 196 HIV, 292 HBV, 316 HCV, and 198 HTLV cases, and 1587 controls were interviewed. For HIV, sex with an HIV+ person (AOR, 132; 95% confidence interval [CI], 27-650) and male-male sex (AOR, 62; 95% CI, 27-140) were primary risk factors. For HBV, first-time donor status (AOR, 16; 95% CI, 10-27), sex with an injection drug user (IDU; AOR, 11; 95% CI, 5-28), and black race (AOR, 11; 95% CI, 6-19) were primary. For HCV, IDU (AOR, 42; 95% CI, 13-136), first time (AOR, 18; 95% CI, 10-30), and a family member with hepatitis (AOR, 15; 95% CI, 6-40) were primary. For HTLV, sex with an IDU (AOR, 22; 95% CI, 10-48), 55 years old or more (AOR, 21; 95% CI, 8-52], and first time (AOR, 15; 95% CI, 9-24) were primary. CONCLUSIONS: Despite education efforts and risk screening, individuals with deferrable risks still donate; they may fail to understand or ignore or do not believe they have risk. Recipients have potential transfusion-transmitted infection risk because of nondisclosure by donors.

Racial differences in receiving morphine among prehospital patients with blunt trauma.

BACKGROUND: Pain management is an important part of prehospital care, yet few studies have addressed the effects of age, sex, race, or pain severity on prehospital pain management. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of sex, age, race, and pain severity with analgesia administration for blunt trauma in the prehospital setting. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used the automated registry of a large urban Emergency Medical Services agency to identify records of all patients transported for blunt trauma injuries between February 1 and November 1, 2009. We used bivariable and multivariable analyses with logistic regression models to determine the relationship between analgesia administration and patient sex, race, age, pain score on a pain scale, and time under prehospital care. RESULTS: We identified 6398 blunt trauma cases. There were 516 patients (8%) who received analgesia overall; among patients for whom a pain scale was recorded, 25% received analgesia. By multivariable analysis, adjusting for race, sex, age, time with patient, and pain score, African-American and Hispanic patients were less likely than Caucasian patients to receive analgesia. Pain score and prehospital time were both significant predictors of analgesia administration, with higher pain score and longer prehospital time associated with increased administration of pain medication. Neither sex nor age was a significant predictor of analgesia administration in the regression analysis. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that Caucasians are more likely than African-Americans or Hispanics to receive prehospital analgesia for blunt trauma injuries. In addition, patients with whom paramedics spend more time and for whom a pain score is recorded are more likely to receive analgesia.

Phenobarbital for acute alcohol withdrawal: a prospective randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Acute alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AAWS) is encountered in patients presenting acutely to the Emergency Department (ED) and often requires pharmacologic management. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether a single dose of intravenous (i.v.) phenobarbital combined with a standardized lorazepam-based alcohol withdrawal protocol decreases intensive care unit (ICU) admission in ED patients with acute alcohol withdrawal. METHODS: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Patients were randomized to receive either a single dose of i.v. phenobarbital (10 mg/kg in 100 mL normal saline) or placebo (100 mL normal saline). All patients were placed on the institutional symptom-guided lorazepam-based alcohol withdrawal protocol. The primary outcome was initial level of hospital admission (ICU vs. telemetry vs. floor ward). RESULTS: There were 198 patients enrolled in the study, and 102 met inclusion criteria for analysis. Fifty-one patients received phenobarbital and 51 received placebo. Baseline characteristics and severity were similar in both groups. Patients that received phenobarbital had fewer ICU admissions (8% vs. 25%, 95% confidence interval 4-32). There were no differences in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of i.v. phenobarbital combined with a symptom-guided lorazepam-based alcohol withdrawal protocol resulted in decreased ICU admission and did not cause increased adverse outcomes.

Transmission of GB virus type C via transfusion in a cohort of HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: GB virus C (GBV-C) infection is transmitted by blood exposure and associated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) load and slower HIV disease progression. Few studies describe predictors of acute GBV-C infection following transfusion in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We used a limited-access database from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute's Viral Activation Transfusion Study, a randomized controlled trial of leukoreduced versus nonleukoreduced transfusions received by HIV-infected, transfusion-naive patients. Blood samples from 489 subjects were tested for GBV-C markers in pretransfusion and posttransfusion samples. We estimated the risk of acquiring GBV-C RNA and predictors of GBV-C acquisition, using pooled logistic regression. RESULTS: GBV-C RNA was detected ≤120 days following the first transfusion in 22 (7.5%) of 294 subjects who were GBV-C negative before transfusion. The risk of GBV-C RNA acquisition increased with each unit transfused (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.11). Lower baseline HIV load and use of antiretroviral therapy were associated with subsequent GBV-C RNA acquisition, after control for units of blood transfused. Leukoreduced status of transfused units was not associated with GBV-C transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Blood transfusion is associated with a significant risk of GBV-C acquisition among HIV-infected patients. Transmission of GBV-C by blood transfusion was inversely related to HIV load.

Acquisition of GB virus type C and lower mortality in patients with advanced HIV disease.

BACKGROUND: GB virus type C (GBV-C) is transmitted by sexual or parenteral exposure and is prevalent among patients receiving blood products. GBV-C is associated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA and better survival among HIV-infected patients. Open questions are the presence and the direction of any causal relationship between GBV-C infection and HIV disease markers in the context of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: We used a limited access database obtained from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Viral Activation Transfusion Study (VATS), a randomized controlled trial of leukoreduced vs nonleukoreduced transfusions to HIV-infected transfusion-naive patients. Blood samples from 489 subjects were tested for GBV-C markers. Cox regression models and inverse probability of treatment weights were used to examine the association between GBV-C coinfection and mortality in the VATS cohort. RESULTS: We found a significant reduction in mortality among GBV-C coinfected VATS subjects, after adjusting for HAART status, HIV RNA level, and CD4 cell count at baseline. Acquisition of GBV-C RNA (n = 39) was associated with lower mortality in 294 subjects who were GBV-C negative at baseline, adjusting for baseline covariates (hazard ratio = 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .08-.58) and in models in which weights were used to control for time-updated covariates (odds ratio = 0.21, 95% CI: .08-.60). CONCLUSIONS: GBV-C viremia is associated with lower mortality, and GBV-C acquisition via transfusion is associated with a significant reduction in mortality in HIV-infected individuals, controlling for HIV disease markers. These findings provide the first evidence that incident GBV-C infection alters mortality in HIV-infected patients.

Accuracy of emergency physicians using ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length to estimate gestational age in pregnant females.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of emergency providers (EPs) of various levels of training in determination of gestational age (GA) in pregnant patients using bedside ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length (CRL). METHODS: We conducted a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study of patients in obstetrical care at an urban county hospital. We enrolled a convenience sample of women at 6 to 14 weeks gestation as estimated by last menstrual period. Emergency providers used ultrasound to measure the CRL. Repeat CRL measurements were performed by either an obstetrical ultrasound technician or senior obstetrician and used as the criterion standard for true GA (TGA). RESULTS: One hundred five patients were evaluated by 20 providers of various levels of training. The average time required to complete the CRL measurement was 85 seconds. When CRL measurements performed by EPs were compared with the TGAs, the average correlation was 0.935 (0.911-0.959). Using standard accepted variance for CRL measurements at different GAs according to the obstetrics literature (±3 days for 42-70 days and ±5 days for 70-90 days), correlation between EP ultrasound and measured TGA was 0.947 (0.927-0.967). CONCLUSIONS: Emergency providers can quickly and accurately determine GA in first-trimester pregnancies using bedside ultrasound to calculate the CRL. Emergency providers should consider using ultrasound to calculate the CRL in patients with first-trimester bleeding or pain because this estimated GA may serve as a valuable data point for the future care of that pregnancy.

Physician-initiated rapid HIV testing in an urban emergency department: comparison of testing using a point-of-care versus a laboratory model.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We compare the outcomes of 2 models of physician-initiated rapid HIV testing in an emergency department (ED). METHODS: One-year retrospective cohort comparing 2 6-month models of physician-initiated rapid HIV testing, point-of-care versus laboratory. Patients aged 12 years or older and able to give verbal consent were eligible for physician-initiated rapid HIV testing if their treating physician believed testing was clinically indicated. During the point-of-care phase, nursing staff performed oral fluid testing. During the laboratory phase, the laboratory performed whole-blood testing. The proportion of potentially eligible patients who had physician-initiated rapid HIV testing ordered (order rate), proportion of ordered tests completed (test completion rate), and proportion of potentially eligible patients who completed testing (overall testing rate) during each phase were assessed. ED length of stay and testing times were also compared. RESULTS: For the point-of-care versus laboratory phase, respectively, there were 24,345 potentially eligible patients versus 26,363; order rate was 3.3% versus 2.4% (P<.001); test completion rate was 75.3% versus 86.8% (P<.001); overall testing rate was 2.5% versus 2.1% (P=.009). Eighteen (3.0%) of the point-of-care-tested patients and 15 (2.7%) of the laboratory-tested patients had reactive tests (P=0.02). The total testing time was greater in the laboratory phase (88 versus 66 minutes; P<.001); however, there was no significant difference in the length of stay between phases (6.2 versus 6.9 hours; P=.15). CONCLUSION: Relatively few ED patients undergo physician-initiated rapid HIV testing regardless of whether a point-of-care or laboratory approach is used. Differences exist in most outcome measures when point-of-care and laboratory models are compared, which should be considered when testing is implemented.

HIV screening in an urban emergency department: comparison of screening using an opt-in versus an opt-out approach.

OBJECTIVE: We compare outcomes of opt-in and opt-out HIV screening approaches in an urban emergency department. METHODS: This was a 1-year prospective observational study comparing 2 6-month screening approaches. Eligibility for opt-in and opt-out screening was identical: aged 15 years or older, medically stable, and able to complete general consent. During the opt-in phase, triage nurses referred patients to HIV testers stationed at triage, who obtained separate opt-in written consent and performed rapid oral fluid tests. During the opt-out phase, registration staff conducted integrated opt-out consent and then referred patients to HIV testers. We assessed the proportion of potentially eligible patients who were offered screening (screening offer rate), the proportion offered screening who accepted (screening acceptance rate), the proportion who accepted screening and subsequently completed testing (test completion rate), and the proportion of potentially eligible patients who completed testing (overall screening rate) during each phase. RESULTS: For the opt-in versus the opt-out phases, respectively, there were 23,236 potentially eligible patients versus 26,757, screening offer rate was 27.9% versus 75.8% (P<.001), screening acceptance rate was 62.7% versus 30.9% (P<.001), test completion rate was 99.8% versus 74.6% (P<.001), and overall screening rate was 17.4% versus 17.5% (P = .90). CONCLUSION: A significantly higher proportion of patients were offered HIV screening with an opt-out approach at registration. However, this was offset by much higher screening acceptance and test completion rates with the opt-in approach at triage. Overall screening rates with the 2 approaches were nearly identical.

Inability to predict postpartum hemorrhage: insights from Egyptian intervention data.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge on how well we can predict primary postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) can help policy makers and health providers design current delivery protocols and PPH case management. The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors and determine predictive probabilities of those risk factors for primary PPH among women expecting singleton vaginal deliveries in Egypt. METHODS: From a prospective cohort study, 2510 pregnant women were recruited over a six-month period in Egypt in 2004. PPH was defined as blood loss ≥ 500 ml. Measures of blood loss were made every 20 minutes for the first 4 hours after delivery using a calibrated under the buttocks drape. Using all variables available in the patients' charts, we divided them in ante-partum and intra-partum factors. We employed logistic regression to analyze socio-demographic, medical and past obstetric history, and labor and delivery outcomes as potential PPH risk factors. Post-model predicted probabilities were estimated using the identified risk factors. RESULTS: We found a total of 93 cases of primary PPH. In multivariate models, ante-partum hemoglobin, history of previous PPH, labor augmentation and prolonged labor were significantly associated with PPH. Post model probability estimates showed that even among women with three or more risk factors, PPH could only be predicted in 10% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive probability of ante-partum and intra-partum risk factors for PPH is very low. Prevention of PPH to all women is highly recommended.

Real-world data on the incidence, mortality, and cost of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding events among non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients in England.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: Several novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are licensed for atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment in the United Kingdom. We describe the incidence and mortality from ischaemic stroke and major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in England, including treatment patterns before/following introduction of NOACs, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and costs post-onset of these events. METHOD: Data were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data. RESULTS: Of 42 966 patients with a first AF record between 2011 and 2016, 9143 patients (21.3%) remained without AF (antiplatelets/antithrombotics) treatment post-index diagnosis. The proportion of patients receiving aspirin for ≥3 months post-index declined during the study (50.6%-5.5%), irrespective of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, while the proportion prescribed NOACs increased (2.0%-70.1%). Rates of ischaemic stroke per 1000 patient-years (95% CI) were 9.4 (3.8-15.0) with NOACs, 10.4 (8.0-12.9) with warfarin, 20.1 (16.4-23.8) with aspirin, 21.3 (5.3-37.2) with other antiplatelets and 43.6 (39.3-47.8) in patients without AF prescription. Major bleeding occurred at a similar rate with different treatments. All-cause mortality rates were 42.8 (31.4-54.3) with NOACs, 46.3 (41.1-51.5) with warfarin, 56.5 (50.5-62.4) with aspirin, 102.2 (76.2-128.3) with other antiplatelets and 412.8 (399.6-426.0) with no AF prescription. Mean annual National Health Service healthcare costs up to 1 year post-index were lowest in patients receiving aspirin plus other antiplatelets without an event (£6152), and highest in patients with an event without AF prescriptions (£17 957). By extrapolation, national AF HRU in the United Kingdom in 2016 was estimated at £8-16 billion annually. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide temporal insights into AF treatment patterns and outcomes for NVAF patients in England and highlight the need to review higher stroke risk AF patients not receiving antiplatelet/antithrombotic prescriptions.

Accuracy of emergency physicians using ultrasound to determine gestational age in pregnant women.

INTRODUCTION: Rapid and accurate determination of gestational age may be vital to the appropriate care of the critically ill pregnant patient. Before the use of emergency ultrasound, physical examination of fundal height (FH) in the nonverbal patient was considered the quickest method to estimate gestational age. We conducted a prospective, observational study of the performance of bedside sonography to determine gestational age. METHODS: We enrolled a convenience sample of women in their second or third trimester of pregnancy. Emergency physicians (EPs) made ultrasound measurements of fetal biparietal diameter (BPD) and femur length, followed by a measurement of FH. These measurements were compared with true gestational age (TGA), sonography by an ultrasound technician, and measurement of FH performed by an obstetrician. Main outcome measures were the average time needed to complete measurements; correlation coefficients between EP measurements and those made by an ultrasound technician, an obstetrician, and TGA, and overall accuracy to determine fetal age greater than 24 weeks. RESULTS: The average time to complete ultrasound measurements was less than 1 minute. When physician-performed measurements were compared with TGA, the correlation coefficients were 0.947 (0.926-0.968) for BPD, 0.957 (0.941-0.973) for femur length, and 0.712 (0.615-0.809) for FH. When determining fetal viability, EP's overall accuracy was 96% using ultrasound and 80% using FH. CONCLUSIONS: With brief training, EPs can quickly and accurately determine gestational age using ultrasound, and these estimates may be more accurate than those obtained through physical examination. Emergency physicians should consider using ultrasound in emergent evaluation of pregnant patients who are unable to provide history.

Saving maternal lives in resource-poor settings: facing reality.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate safe-motherhood interventions suitable for resource-poor settings that can be implemented with current resources. METHODS: Literature review to identify interventions that require minimal treatment/infrastructure and are not dependent on skilled providers. Simulations were run to assess the potential number of maternal lives that could be saved through intervention implementation according to potential program impact. Regional and country level estimates are provided as examples of settings that would most benefit from proposed interventions. RESULTS: Three interventions were identified: (i) improve access to contraception; (ii) increase efforts to reduce deaths from unsafe abortion; and (iii) increase access to misoprostol to control postpartum hemorrhage (including for home births). The combined effect of postpartum hemorrhage and unsafe abortion prevention would result in the greatest gains in maternal deaths averted. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Bold new initiatives are needed to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters. Ninety-nine percent of maternal deaths occur in developing countries and the majority of these women deliver alone, or with a traditional birth attendant. It is time for maternal health program planners to reprioritize interventions in the face of human and financial resource constraints. The three proposed interventions address the largest part of the maternal health burden.

Maternal smoking, alcohol drinking, and febrile convulsion.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that maternal cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking during pregnancy may increase risk for febrile convulsion during childhood. We evaluated the relationship of maternal smoking, alcohol drinking, and their interaction on febrile convulsion. METHOD: Pregnant women (n=10,108) enrolled in the Child Health and Development Studies in California between 1959 and 1966 were interviewed about their habits during pregnancy and febrile convulsions of the child were ascertained soon after an event. RESULTS: Febrile convulsions were reported in 2.9% of children of mothers who both smoked and drank alcohol, 2.0% for children of mothers who smoked but did not drink, 1.5% for children of mothers who drank but did not smoke and 2.1% of children of mothers who neither smoked nor drank. After adjusting for covariates, children of smokers who did not drink and children of drinkers who did not smoke did not have a significant hazard for febrile convulsion, compared to children of non-smokers non-drinkers. However, children of smokers who drank had a 30% increased hazard of febrile convulsion (95% CI=1.0, 1.9). The interaction term for smoking and alcohol drinking was significant in the multivariable model (p=0.02). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that children of mothers who both smoke and drink alcohol during pregnancy may have a higher risk for febrile convulsions.

Relationship between HIV risk perception and condom use: Evidence from a population-based survey in Mozambique.

CONTEXT: The relationship between individuals' perception of their risk for acquiring HIV and their use of condoms is poorly understood. Understanding this relationship is crucial to the development of effective strategies to fight HIV and AIDS. METHODS: Data from the Mozambique 2001 Adolescent and Young Adult Reproductive Health and Behavior Risk Survey are used to compare 15-24-year-olds' assessments of their HIV risk with assessments based on current and past sexual behavior. In bivariate and probit regression analyses, the relationship between correct risk assessment and the likelihood of condom use at last intercourse is examined. RESULTS: Twenty-seven percent of women and 80% of men who considered themselves to have no risk or a small risk of contracting HIV were actually at moderate or high risk. For both men and women, the prevalence of condom use at last sex was more than twice as high among those who assessed their risk correctly (30% and 16%, respectively) as among those who did not (14% and 6%). Multivariate analysis showed that correct assessment was positively associated with condom use; the association was driven by use among never-married individuals. Never-married males who assessed their risk correctly were 18% more likely than other males to report condom use; never-married females, 17% more likely than other females. CONCLUSIONS: Educational messages should aim at enabling individuals to correctly assess their own HIV risk and encouraging behavior change based on self-assessment of risk.