Data2Dynamics: a modeling environment tailored to parameter estimation in dynamical systems.

UNLABELLED: Modeling of dynamical systems using ordinary differential equations is a popular approach in the field of systems biology. Two of the most critical steps in this approach are to construct dynamical models of biochemical reaction networks for large datasets and complex experimental conditions and to perform efficient and reliable parameter estimation for model fitting. We present a modeling environment for MATLAB that pioneers these challenges. The numerically expensive parts of the calculations such as the solving of the differential equations and of the associated sensitivity system are parallelized and automatically compiled into efficient C code. A variety of parameter estimation algorithms as well as frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty analysis have been implemented and used on a range of applications that lead to publications. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The Data2Dynamics modeling environment is MATLAB based, open source and freely available at http://www.data2dynamics.org. CONTACT: andreas.raue@fdm.uni-freiburg.de SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

An integrated strategy for prediction uncertainty analysis.

MOTIVATION: To further our understanding of the mechanisms underlying biochemical pathways mathematical modelling is used. Since many parameter values are unknown they need to be estimated using experimental observations. The complexity of models necessary to describe biological pathways in combination with the limited amount of quantitative data results in large parameter uncertainty which propagates into model predictions. Therefore prediction uncertainty analysis is an important topic that needs to be addressed in Systems Biology modelling. RESULTS: We propose a strategy for model prediction uncertainty analysis by integrating profile likelihood analysis with Bayesian estimation. Our method is illustrated with an application to a model of the JAK-STAT signalling pathway. The analysis identified predictions on unobserved variables that could be made with a high level of confidence, despite that some parameters were non-identifiable. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code is available at: http://bmi.bmt.tue.nl/sysbio/software/pua.html.

A Bayesian approach to targeted experiment design.

MOTIVATION: Systems biology employs mathematical modelling to further our understanding of biochemical pathways. Since the amount of experimental data on which the models are parameterized is often limited, these models exhibit large uncertainty in both parameters and predictions. Statistical methods can be used to select experiments that will reduce such uncertainty in an optimal manner. However, existing methods for optimal experiment design (OED) rely on assumptions that are inappropriate when data are scarce considering model complexity. RESULTS: We have developed a novel method to perform OED for models that cope with large parameter uncertainty. We employ a Bayesian approach involving importance sampling of the posterior predictive distribution to predict the efficacy of a new measurement at reducing the uncertainty of a selected prediction. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a case where we show that specific combinations of experiments result in more precise predictions. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code is available at: http://bmi.bmt.tue.nl/sysbio/software/pua.html.

Computational modeling of mitochondrial energy transduction.

Mitochondria are the power plant of the heart, burning fat and sugars to supply the muscle with the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) free energy that drives contraction and relaxation during each heart beat. This function was first captured in a mathematical model in 1967. Today, interest in such a model has been rekindled by ongoing in silico integrative physiology efforts such as the Cardiac Physiome project. Here, the status of the field of computational modeling of mitochondrial ATP synthetic function is reviewed.

BISEN: Biochemical Simulation Environment.

SUMMARY: The Biochemical Simulation Environment (BISEN) is a suite of tools for generating equations and associated computer programs for simulating biochemical systems in the MATLAB computing environment. This is the first package that can generate appropriate systems of differential equations for user-specified multi-compartment systems of enzymes and transporters accounting for detailed biochemical thermodynamics, rapid equilibria of multiple biochemical species and dynamic proton and metal ion buffering. AVAILABILITY: The software and a user manual (including several tutorial examples) are available at bbc.mcw.edu/BISEN.

Parameter uncertainty in biochemical models described by ordinary differential equations.

Improved mechanistic understanding of biochemical networks is one of the driving ambitions of Systems Biology. Computational modeling allows the integration of various sources of experimental data in order to put this conceptual understanding to the test in a quantitative manner. The aim of computational modeling is to obtain both predictive as well as explanatory models for complex phenomena, hereby providing useful approximations of reality with varying levels of detail. As the complexity required to describe different system increases, so does the need for determining how well such predictions can be made. Despite efforts to make tools for uncertainty analysis available to the field, these methods have not yet found widespread use in the field of Systems Biology. Additionally, the suitability of the different methods strongly depends on the problem and system under investigation. This review provides an introduction to some of the techniques available as well as gives an overview of the state-of-the-art methods for parameter uncertainty analysis.