The growth equation of cities.

The science of cities seeks to understand and explain regularities observed in the world's major urban systems. Modelling the population evolution of cities is at the core of this science and of all urban studies. Quantitatively, the most fundamental problem is to understand the hierarchical organization of city population and the statistical occurrence of megacities. This was first thought to be described by a universal principle known as Zipf's law1,2; however, the validity of this model has been challenged by recent empirical studies3,4. A theoretical model must also be able to explain the relatively frequent rises and falls of cities and civilizations5, but despite many attempts6-10 these fundamental questions have not yet been satisfactorily answered. Here we introduce a stochastic equation for modelling population growth in cities, constructed from an empirical analysis of recent datasets (for Canada, France, the UK and the USA). This model reveals how rare, but large, interurban migratory shocks dominate city growth. This equation predicts a complex shape for the distribution of city populations and shows that, owing to finite-time effects, Zipf's law does not hold in general, implying a more complex organization of cities. It also predicts the existence of multiple temporal variations in the city hierarchy, in agreement with observations5. Our result underlines the importance of rare events in the evolution of complex systems11 and, at a more practical level, in urban planning.

Betweenness centrality in dense spatial networks.

The betweenness centrality (BC) is an important quantity for understanding the structure of complex large networks. However, its calculation is in general difficult and known in simple cases only. In particular, the BC has been exactly computed for graphs constructed over a set of N points in the infinite density limit, displaying a universal behavior. We reconsider this calculation and propose an expansion for large and finite densities. We compute the lowest nontrivial order and show that it encodes how straight are shortest paths and is therefore nonuniversal and depends on the graph considered. We compare our analytical result to numerical simulations obtained for various graphs such as the minimum spanning tree, the nearest neighbor graph, the relative neighborhood graph, the random geometric graph, the Gabriel graph, or the Delaunay triangulation. We show that in most cases the agreement with our analytical result is excellent even for densities of points that are relatively low. This method and our results provide a framework for understanding and computing this important quantity in large spatial networks.

From one-way streets to percolation on random mixed graphs.

In most studies, street networks are considered as undirected graphs while one-way streets and their effect on shortest paths are usually ignored. Here, we first study the empirical effect of one-way streets in about 140 cities in the world. Their presence induces a detour that persists over a wide range of distances and is characterized by a nonuniversal exponent. The effect of one-ways on the pattern of shortest paths is then twofold: they mitigate local traffic in certain areas but create bottlenecks elsewhere. This empirical study leads naturally to considering a mixed graph model of 2d regular lattices with both undirected links and a diluted variable fraction p of randomly directed links which mimics the presence of one-ways in a street network. We study the size of the strongly connected component (SCC) versus p and demonstrate the existence of a threshold p_{c} above which the SCC size is zero. We show numerically that this transition is nontrivial for lattices with degree less than 4 and provide some analytical argument. We compute numerically the critical exponents for this transition and confirm previous results showing that they define a new universality class different from both the directed and standard percolation. Finally, we show that the transition on real-world graphs can be understood with random perturbations of regular lattices. The impact of one-ways on the graph properties was already the subject of a few mathematical studies, and our results show that this problem has also interesting connections with percolation, a classical model in statistical physics.

Access to mass rapid transit in OECD urban areas.

As mitigating car traffic in cities has become paramount to abate climate change effects, fostering public transport in cities appears ever-more appealing. A key ingredient in that purpose is easy access to mass rapid transit (MRT) systems. So far, we have however few empirical estimates of the coverage of MRT in urban areas, computed as the share of people living in MRT catchment areas, say for instance within walking distance. In this work, we clarify a universal definition of such a metrics - People Near Transit (PNT) - and present measures of this quantity for 85 urban areas in OECD countries - the largest dataset of such a quantity so far. By suggesting a standardized protocol, we make our dataset sound and expandable to other countries and cities in the world, which grounds our work into solid basis for multiple reuses in transport, environmental or economic studies.

Critical factors for mitigating car traffic in cities.

Car traffic in urban systems has been studied intensely in past decades but models are either limited to a specific aspect of traffic or applied to a specific region. Despite the importance and urgency of the problem we have a poor theoretical understanding of the parameters controlling urban car use and congestion. Here, we combine economical and transport ingredients into a statistical physics approach and propose a generic model that predicts for different cities the share of car drivers, the CO2 emitted by cars and the average commuting time. We confirm these analytical predictions on 25 major urban areas in the world, and our results suggest that urban density is not the most relevant variable controlling car-related quantities but rather are the city's area size and the density of public transport. Mitigating the traffic (and its effect such as CO2 emissions) can then be obtained by reducing the urbanized area size or, more realistically, by improving either the public transport density or its access. In particular, increasing the population density is a good idea only if it also increases the fraction of individuals having access to public transport.