Operative mortality after gastric cancer resection and long-term survival differences across Europe.

BACKGROUND: : Little is known at a population level about operative mortality after surgery for gastric cancer and whether differences between countries can explain differences in long-term survival. This study compared operative mortality recorded by ten cancer registries in seven European countries. METHODS: : Non-conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the independent effect of the studied factors on mortality within 30 days of surgery. A multivariable survival model was employed with and without operative mortality. RESULTS: : The overall operative mortality rate in 1611 patients studied was 8.9 (range 5.2-16) per cent. Country of residence was a significant prognostic factor in the multivariable analysis. The likelihood of operative mortality was lower in Italy, France and the UK than in the Netherlands, Spain, Slovenia and Poland. Age, type of gastrectomy and stage at diagnosis were also significant factors. Cancer site was not found to be significant in the multivariable analysis. The overall 5-year relative survival rate varied between 42.0 per cent (Italy) and 24 per cent (Poland); after excluding operative mortality, the 5-year survival rate was 44.3 and 28 per cent respectively. CONCLUSION: : Within Europe, the substantial differences in operative mortality after gastrectomy only partly explain marked differences in survival after gastric cancer resection.

Estimating regional cancer burden in countries with partial registration coverage: an application to all malignant neoplasms in Italy over the period 1970-2010.

Regional epidemiological indicators of cancer burden are essential information for cancer surveillance and health resources planning, especially in countries with partial registration coverage and geographically variable risk patterns, such as Italy. This paper presents a methodology to derive cancer incidence and prevalence at the regional and national scale and illustrates its application to all malignant neoplasms in Italy for the period 1970-2010. The method, denoted as MIAMOD, is based on a back-calculation approach and derives cancer-specific morbidity measures by using official mortality data and model-based relative survival from local Cancer Registries data. The output includes time-trends and projections of a complete set of epidemiological indicators, i.e. mortality, incidence and prevalence. Results for all cancers in Italy show different incidence patterns by gender and a pronounced regional variability among men: male incidence is estimated to decrease in almost all northern-central regions, while more stable or even rising trends are estimated in the southern regions. No incidence reduction is expected for women. Prevalence increases country-wide in both sexes. The proposed approach can be applied to derive regional up-to-date time trends of cancer burden indicators in countries with local and sparse cancer registration systems. These estimates are useful for planning health services on a national and regional basis and for highlighting regional differences.

Self perceived health and mental health among women flight attendants.

AIMS: The authors investigated associations of work related risk factors with self perceived health as less than "good" and psychological distress among Italian women flight attendants. METHODS: The authors conducted a cross sectional survey on health and mental health among 1955 former and current flight attendants, using a postal questionnaire. RESULTS: More current than former flight attendants reported self perceived health as fair to poor and psychological distress measured as a GHQ-12 score of six or more. Among current flight attendants, reporting health as fair to poor was associated with low job satisfaction (OR 1.89) and recent experiences of sexual harassment by passengers (OR 2.83). Psychological distress was associated with low job satisfaction (OR 2.38) and frequent tension with partner over childcare (OR 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: Perceived health as fair to poor and psychological distress were greater among current flight attendants and were related to job characteristics and family difficulties. Perceived poor health has been shown in the literature to be related to mortality, high job strain, and early retirement, and psychological distress is associated with work absence. The effect of sexual harassment by passengers on perceived health of flight attendants may be relevant to other working women dealing with the public. The health effects of family/work conflicts, low job satisfaction, and sexual harassment should be explored more in depth, using qualitative as well as quantitative methods among working women in various occupations.

Survival of European women with gynaecological tumours, during the period 1978-1989. EUROCARE Working Group.

This study concerns the survival of European patients diagnosed between 1978 and 1989 with cancer of corpus and cervix uteri and ovary. Variations in survival in relation to age, country and period of diagnosis were examined. Data from the EUROCARE study were supplied by population-based cancer registries in 17 countries to a common protocol. Five years after diagnosis, relative survival rates were 75, 62 and 35% for cancers of the endometrium, cervix and ovary, respectively. Survival decreased markedly with age. The decrease was especially evident for ovarian cancer, which declined from 65% (15-45 years) to 18% (75+ years). In 1985-1989 there were important inter-country differences in survival for European women with gynaecological cancers: Eastern European countries were characterised by low 5-year relative survival whilst in Sweden, Austria, The Netherlands and Switzerland survival was generally higher than for other European countries. From 1978-1989, 5-year relative survival improved slightly for cervical cancer and improved more among the oldest patients. Prognosis also improved slightly for patients with ovarian tumours and this increase (around 20%) was concentrated among patients between 15 and 64 years of age. Intercountry differences in survival did not in general reduce over time, although for ovarian cancer survival differences narrowed probably in relation to the more widespread use of more effective chemotherapy. Intercountry and time differences in survival for cervical cancer are almost certainly related to variations in the effectiveness of cervical screening programmes. For corpus uteri cancer there was no improvement in survival over the period of this study and intercountry survival differences for this cancer are probably related to differences in patient management.

Variation in survival of adult patients with haematological malignancies in Europe since 1978. EUROCARE Working Group.

Data on 73,070 patients for seven major haematological malignancies diagnosed in Europe between 1985 and 1989 from 39 population-based cancer registries in 17 countries are included in the EUROCARE database. Relative survival was analysed by country and age between 1985 and 1989 and time trends were analysed from 1978-1989 for 13 countries which collaborated in EUROCARE for this entire period. The European weighted age-standardised 5-year relative survival rate was 72% for patients with Hodgkin's disease (HD, ranging from 45 to 76% in 13 countries), 63% for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL, range 51-79%, 14 countries), 46% for patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL, range 25-63%, 17 countries), 31% for patients with chronic myelocytic leukaemia (CML, range 8-40%, 13 countries), 28% for patients with multiple myeloma (MM, range 18-36%, 14 countries), 25% for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL, range 19-33%, 7 countries) and 10% for patients with acute myeloblastic leukaemia (AML, range 4-15%, 11 countries). In all countries, relative survival declined with age, most markedly for patients with acute leukaemias. Patients in Northern and Western Europe had better survival rates, particularly in younger patients (15-45 years of age), whilst those in Eastern European countries tended to have poorer rates. Compared with 1978-1979, relative 5-year survival improved in 1987-1989 for most haematological malignancies (relative risk (RR) of death for CLL 0.65, AML 0.75, HD 0.76, ALL 0.79, NHL 0.82), with only CML (RR 0.95) and MM (RR 1.00) showing little or no change. These results suggest that generally and particularly in Eastern Europe there is room for improvement in the diagnosis and treatment of haematological malignancies. The intercountry differences also highlight the importance of socio-economic conditions to health status.

Survival and age at diagnosis of breast cancer in a population-based cancer registry.

From the population covered by the Lombardy Cancer Registry, Italy, 1991 female breast cancer patients diagnosed from 1976 to 1981 were followed up until May 1987. Relative survival was 69% at 5 years and 58% at 10 years; median survival was 8.8 years. Ages 40-49 showed the best survival; ages 25-34 were 20% lower. From age 50 onwards, survival decreased progressively, with the exception of age group 65-74. We suggest that the best prognosis for ages 40-49, followed by the survival fall in subsequent ages, could be related to an anticipation of diagnosis in ages near menopause. The death hazard function showed a bimodal pattern, with a first peak in the first years after diagnosis, and a second one between the seventh and eighth years. The death hazard rate decreased by about 1% per year at each subsequent calendar year of diagnosis. When such an estimated calendar effect was taken in account, there were no considerable survival differences among Western countries covered by population-based cancer registries.

Survival of childhood lymphomas in Europe, 1978--1992: a report from the EUROCARE study.

In most developed countries, malignant lymphomas account for 10--15% of all cancers occurring among children aged 0--14 years. The present study estimates survival after a diagnosis of lymphoma in childhood, based on the EUROCARE II database which includes 34 population-based cancer registries from 17 European countries. The survival pattern of children with malignant lymphoma diagnosed in 1985--1989 is reported, as well as the time trends since 1978. The analyses focus on Hodgkin's disease (HD, 1696 cases) and on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL, 2255 cases including Burkitt's lymphoma and unspecified lymphomas). For HD, the European weighted average 5-year survival rate was 93% (95% confidence interval (CI) 82--98) in 1985--1989. The survival rates were not affected by either age or gender. 5-year survival rates ranged from 68% (95% CI 34--90) in Estonia to 96% (95% CI 92--98) in Germany and 100% (95% CI 57--100) in Slovenia. Multivariate analyses for the time period 1978--1989 gave little suggestion of an improvement in survival over the later time periods of diagnosis. For NHL, the European weighted average 5-year survival rate was 74% (95% CI 67--80) in 1985--1989. Gender did not influence the survival rate. Children in the age group 0--4 years had a poorer prognosis compared with older cases (5-year rate: 66% versus 77% in the pool). 5-year survival rates ranged from 53% (95% CI 30--76) (Estonia) to 83% (95% CI 62--94) in France and 83% (95% CI 66--92) in Scotland. Multivariate analysis show a decreasing HR for the more recent periods of diagnosis from 1 in 1978--1981 to 0.67 (95% CI 0.56--0.79) in 1982--1985 to 0.48 (95% CI 0.40--0.57) in 1986--1989. Exploratory analysis, conducted including the cancer registries which provided cases diagnosed until 1992, show a positive trend over time for both types of lymphoma.

Childhood cancer survival in Europe: an overview.

Other articles in this issue of the European Journal of Cancer have described population-based survival analyses of specific types of childhood cancer included in the EUROCARE database, diagnosed since 1979. The present paper summarises the relevant estimates and comments on intercountry differences, focusing on possible distortions in the intercountry comparisons based on data produced by the cancer registries. Potential biases include a lack of exhaustiveness of both case ascertainment and follow-up for living status and also a lack of consistency in the use of classification of the childhood cancer types. Nevertheless, despite such biases, consistent differences are observed between European countries in the probability of survival following the diagnosis of a paediatric cancer. In most cases, poor population-based survival rates are probably explained by inadequacies in the adoption and implementation of therapeutic protocols that have been proved to be effective. In some instances, the cause of unsatisfactory estimates was the inclusion of a sizeable proportion of children with cancer in clinical trials which were found to be ineffective. A regression analysis of incidence, mortality and survival rates during 1978-1989 over the whole EUROCARE database strongly indicates that the prognostic improvements over time are real and cannot be attributed to changes in diagnostic procedures.

Comparison of stomach cancer incidence and survival in four continents.

The aim of this study was to compare stomach cancer incidence and survival rates between four very distinct areas: Campinas (Brasil), Latin America, Iowa (USA), Northern America, Varese (Italy), Europe and Osaka (Japan) in Asia, and determine which of the differences are due to variations in the case mix and which are due to the care received. A proportional hazards regression method was applied to the relative survival rates to obtain geographical differences that were adjusted for age, gender, period of diagnosis, sub-site and stage. Age, gender, period and stage explained most of the variability between the areas (50-100% excess risk of death with respect to Osaka) in the survival rates for stomach cancer patients. In Iowa and Varese, information on the sub-site fully explained the remaining variability. The large survival differences between the four areas were almost totally due to the different case mixes of the stomach cancer patients. The importance of stage indicates that diagnostic delay may be a major clinical factor affecting survival.

Incidence and prevalence of all cancerous diseases in Italy: trends and implications.

The burden of cancer in ageing populations is causing great concern, particularly in Italy with Europe's fastest growing elderly population. Studying all cancers combined in one group, although of limited medical value, is of great interest from the viewpoints of public health, epidemiology and the economy. Using mortality data and an estimate of cancer patients' survival we have estimated and projected incidence and prevalence in Italy of all cancers combined in one group. Five major phenomena are highlighted in the paper: (1) the decrease in the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates among females and the stable mortality rates among males since 1990; (2) the changing pattern of cancer incidence since 1990, it has started to decrease for females and is stabilising for males; (3) the decrease in cancer incidence among males and females born after 1940; (4) the increase in the proportion of cancer patients that are cured with calendar years of diagnosis; (5) the increase in the total and the healthy life expectancy (i.e. cancer-free) among the Italian population since 1970. The declining and flat trends in age-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality rates since 1990 is the combined effect of survival improvements and cancer risk reduction for younger cohort groups, after 1940. These favourable trends contribute to the increase in healthy life expectation, thus supporting the idea that we live longer and healthier.

Cancer survival increases in Europe, but international differences remain wide.

The EUROCARE project analysed cancer survival data from 45 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries, revealing wide international differences in cancer survival. We calculated 5-year relative survival for 1836287 patients diagnosed with one of 13 cancers during the period 1978-1989. The data, from 20 cancer registries in 13 countries, were grouped into four regions: Finland, Sweden, Iceland (Northern Europe); Denmark, England and Scotland (UK and Denmark); France, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Switzerland (Western Europe); Estonia and Poland (Eastern Europe), and broken down into four periods (1978-1980, 1981-1983, 1984-1986, 1987-1989). For each cancer, mean European and regional survival was estimated as the weighted mean of 5-year relative survival in each country. Survival increased with time for all tumours, particularly for cancers of testis (12% increase, i.e. from 79.9 to 91.9%), breast, large bowel, skin melanoma (approximately 9-10%), and lymphomas (approximately 7%). For most solid tumours, survival was highest in Northern Europe and lowest in Eastern Europe, and also low in the UK and Denmark. Regional variation was less marked for the lymphomas. Survival improved more in Western than Northern Europe, and the differences between these regions fell for bowel cancer (from 8.0% for those diagnosed in 1978-1980 to 2% for those diagnosed in 1987-1989), breast cancer (from 7.4% to 3.9%), skin melanoma (from 13.4% to 11.0%) and Hodgkin's disease (from 7.2 to 0.6%). For potentially curable malignancies such as Hodgkin's disease, large bowel, breast and testicular cancers, there were substantial increases in survival, suggesting an earlier diagnosis and more effective treatment. The persisting regional differences suggest there are corresponding differences in the availability of diagnostic and therapeutic facilities, and in the effectiveness of healthcare systems.

Estimating population-based incidence and prevalence of major coronary events.

Population-based data on major coronary events (MCE) are generally lacking for large areas, such as at the nationwide level. While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected in all developed countries and in most developing countries, incidence and prevalence are often available only for certain subgroups of the population under study. We propose a mathematical method to estimate incidence and prevalence using morality and survival data as input, and to forecast MCE occurrence using an age, period, and cohort approach. An application of the method is given to reconstruct incidence and prevalence of MCE in Italy from 1970 to 1990 and to project trends up to the year 2000. MCE incidence has been decreasing since 1974, four years before the observed mortality decline. Conversely, prevalence continues to increase up to the middle of the 1980, and declines thereafter.

An age and period reconstruction of the HIV epidemic in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The majority of AIDS cases in Italy are among intravenous drug users (68%) and homosexual men. An age, period and cohort (APC) model is presented and used to reconstruct the HIV epidemics in Italy. Projections of AIDS-related conditions (ARC) and AIDS cases are attempted based on a hypothesis of minima and an endemic hypothesis. METHODS: The model is a generalization of the usual back-calculation method which considers age, competitive mortality, susceptible population and therapy effects. Estimates of the HIV epidemic in Italy are obtained using Italian AIDS counts (corrected for delay in reporting), and an incubation time distribution (estimated from data of an Italian cohort), which was found to be dependent on the age at infection. The impact of AZT therapy, introduced in Italy in mid1987, is evaluated using a modification of the incubation time distribution dependent on period of infection. RESULTS: The estimated number of new infections in Italy declined after 1987, although the number of new AIDS cases has continued to rise, albeit less steeply in recent years. When delay in the progression to AIDS due to therapy is taken into account, the estimated number of people infected in mid1990 increases from 52,000 to 67,000, with approximately 12% of subjects already in the ARC stage. The age at maximum risk of infection is 25 years in males and 23 years in females. CONCLUSIONS: Using a hypothesis of no more HIV infections after 1990, AIDS counts would be still rising in Italy up to 1993 as a result of past infections and of the long incubation period.

Reconstruction of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sub-epidemics in Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections is likely to consist of sub-epidemics in local areas and/or risk groups. Small-area risk group specific analyses may thus be a suitable means of better understanding and controlling the epidemic course. METHODS: An age, period, and cohort back-calculation method was used to reconstruct region-specific epidemics of HIV infection. The HIV infection incidence rates were estimated for individual Italian regions by using as denominator the specific risk category population (i.e. intravenous drug user population [IDU], homosexual/ bisexual population [MSWM], and Italian general population for heterosexual contacts [HST]). Incidence rates obtained in this way represent the risk of HIV infection conditional to belonging to the specific sub-group of the population. RESULTS: The HIV epidemic is heterogeneous in terms of gender, risk category and region. The highest risk of HIV infection has been estimated in the Lombardia region (North-West area) among men belonging to the IDU category in 1985. In recent years, a trend of decrease in HIV has been estimated, especially among IDU and MSWM. For the HST category, some regions have shown trends of great increase, particularly on the island of Sardegna and the regions of Puglia and Sicilia (Southern Italy). In 1987, most HIV infections were observed among IDU (39-90%), while in 1992 the MSWM and HST categories made the greatest contribution to the HIV epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: The results stress the idea of sub-epidemics rather than a single epidemic affecting the entire country. Some Southern regions emerge as areas in which the spread of HIV infections, although still at a rather low level, should cause considerable concern, particularly the trend of new infections by heterosexual transmission involving the general population. Detailed information on levels and trends of HIV infection epidemics at the local level are essential for surveillance purposes and for planning health care facilities, and can highlight areas in which preventive measures can be effective.

Risk factors changes and coronary heart disease in an observational study.

Data from the Seven Countries Study are analysed to examine the relationship between the observed incidence of Coronary Heart Disease in the second 5-year period of follow-up and the major entry risk factors and their changes over the first 5 years. The analysis, using the Multiple Logistic Function model, shows that changes in systolic blood pressure and smoking habits are significant factors associated with incidence, while changes in cholesterol and body mass index do not play this role. This conclusion applies to the population as a whole. A more detailed analysis, stratifying the population by estimated risk at entry and changes of risk over 5 years, shows that incidence is related to changes of risk in low and medium entry risk groups. Moreover, a univariate analysis of data limited to systolic blood pressure and cholesterol indicates that changes in blood pressure are related to incidence in the group with highest entry level of blood pressure, while changes in cholesterol are irrelevant to subsequent incidence.

Use of AIDS surveillance data to describe subepidemic dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Official reports on AIDS surveillance mainly consist of absolute numbers of AIDS cases or cumulative incidence rates. More detailed analyses focusing on the clusters of subepidemics within Italy seemed necessary for a better understanding and more accurate description of the epidemic. METHODS: Age-specific AIDS incidence rates were calculated with reference to resident population by sex, calendar time and geographical area. Age-standardized incidence rates, with the Italian resident population in 1990 as standard, were used to present time trends and geographical distributions. All analyses were repeated for injecting drug users, homosexual/bisexual men, heterosexual contacts and individuals with other or undetermined risk factors. RESULTS: Annual incidence rates for AIDS in Italy increased over the study period. The highest rates were observed in the North and in Sardinia, while Southern regions showed generally lower rates. This heterogeneity was more evident when examining small geographical areas (i.e. provinces). Epidemics in some of the smaller provinces, such as Imperia and Livorno (Northwestern port towns), were shown to be important in that they greatly affect AIDS incidence rates in the regions in which they are located. CONCLUSIONS: According to our analysis, the crude presentation of data from the Italian AIDS Registry is not adequate for understanding the national spread of the AIDS epidemic in terms of several local subepidemics, which may differ by size, temporal trend, and risk group composition. Classifying cases according to their place of residence, which we considered as a good proxy of the place of life, was fundamental for correctly locating these subepidemics. Furthermore, the use of age-standardized rates allowed for unbiased comparisons between regions whose population may have a different age structure and dynamics.

Estimation and projections of colorectal cancer trends in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Occurrence of and prognosis for tumours of the colon and rectum are thought to be changing rapidly due to simultaneous changes in risk factor prevalence, early diagnosis and treatment. In this paper time trends of morbidity, survival and mortality for colorectal cancer during the period 1970-1990 are estimated and analysed. METHODS: Mortality trends were obtained from official death certificates. Relative survival rates were computed from population-based cancer registries. Incidence and prevalence rates were estimated from mortality and survival data. RESULTS: Incidence rates were increasing during the period considered, with a lower rate of increase for the youngest birth cohorts. Relative survival rates of both colon and rectum cancers were higher for women, and for younger age groups, and were positively associated with period of diagnosis. No significant survival difference among the cancer registries used was found. A total of about 155,000 prevalent cases, 40% of which had been diagnosed > or = 7 years before, were estimated in the Italian population for the year 1990. Mortality rates were slightly increasing for men and stable for women. Projections of colorectal cancer trends to the year 2000 indicate major expected rises in both incidence and prevalence. CONCLUSION: Colorectal cancer represents a problem of growing impact for health services in Italy. This conclusion can probably be extended to many developed countries.

Health risks from radiation exposure for civilian aviation flight personnel: a study of Italian airline crew members.

A study of the effects of exposures of civilian aviation flight personnel to atmospheric ionizing radiation (including high-energy neutrons) is being performed. The results of previous studies and of the criteria required for a more satisfactory outcome in future studies are presented, along with a description of the protocol for the Italian national study. A description of the cohort is given in terms of its size, composition and member eligibility. The various ways of determining the exposure and the health status of past and current aircrew members are discussed, and follow-up procedures are described. An overview of the data management and processing philosophy adopted in the Italian study is given with regard to flight routes, radiation dose evaluation along the flight paths, and construction of exposure matrices. Other studies of potential interest are also discussed. The study is still in progress, so the results are preliminary.

General hospital psychiatry in Italy: on the hospitalization of psychiatric patients and consultation-liaison psychiatry after Law 180, 1978.

The type of psychiatric assistance carried out in Italy before Basaglia's views gained ground--that is, before 1968, when his book L'Istituzione Negata was published--is first described. The "Democratic Psychiatry" movement he launched was the mainspring of Law 180 (1978), known to have led to the closing of asylums. This law has brought about moves to create new mental health community services covering wide areas, the setting up of special diagnosis and care sections in general hospitals responsible for compulsory admissions--and overcrowding in private clinics and University clinics within general hospitals. The role of the psychiatric ward (opposed by the supporters of "Democratic Psychiatry") and of consultation-liaison psychiatry within the ambit of the general hospital is then discussed in the light of our experience.

Integrating qualitative methods into occupational health research: a study of women flight attendants.

AIMS: To identify possible work related sources of psychosocial stress in order to develop pertinent questionnaire items for a cross-sectional health survey of 3000 Italian women flight attendants, and to solicit suggestions on improving survey participation. METHODS: Qualitative study in which 26 current and former women flight attendants participated: three focus groups of 6-7 participants each and six in-depth individual interviews. The session themes included positive and negative aspects of the job; relationships with colleagues, superiors, and passengers; perception of occupational risk for serious diseases; compatibility of work and family; and experiences of work related sources of stress and their effect on health. A transcript based analysis of the focus groups and interviews was used to identify emerging themes related to risk factors for mental health problems. RESULTS: The participants indicated that mental health was a major concern. Several work related risk factors possibly related to adverse outcomes, such as depression and anxiety, were highlighted. These included isolation and solitude, fears of being inadequate partners and mothers due to job demands, passenger relationships, and lack of protection by employers with respect to workplace exposures and violent passengers. The information gained was used to develop a mental health module for inclusion in the health survey questionnaire which included questions on history of severe depression or anxiety, suicidal ideation or attempt, substance abuse, workplace sexual harassment, social support, leisure time activities, relationship with a partner, and role as mother. CONCLUSIONS: Employing qualitative methods to identify work related sources of psychosocial stress enabled development of pertinent questionnaire items for a cross-sectional epidemiological study of women flight attendants. Follow up qualitative research may be necessary in order to put the cross-sectional study findings into context and to explore actions or strategies for preventing work related health problems evidenced from the survey.