Effects of Drought on Mortality in Macro Urban Areas of Brazil Between 2000 and 2019.

A significant fraction of Brazil's population has been exposed to drought in recent years, a situation that is expected to worsen in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This constitutes a current key environmental health concern, especially in densely urban areas such as several big cities and suburbs. For the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the short-term drought effects on weekly non-external, circulatory, and respiratory mortality was conducted in 13 major Brazilian macro-urban areas across 2000-2019. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted by temperature to explore the association between drought (defined by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) and the different mortality causes by location, sex, and age groups. We next conducted multivariate meta-analytical models separated by cause and population groups to pool individual estimates. Impact measures were expressed as the attributable fractions among the exposed population, from the relative risks (RRs). Overall, a positive association between drought exposure and mortality was evidenced in the total population, with RRs varying from 1.003 [95% CI: 0.999-1.007] to 1.010 [0.996-1.025] for non-external mortality related to moderate and extreme drought conditions, from 1.002 [0.997-1.007] to 1.008 [0.991-1.026] for circulatory mortality, and from 1.004 [0.995-1.013] to 1.013 [0.983-1.044] for respiratory mortality. Females, children, and the elderly population were the most affected groups, for whom a robust positive association was found. The study also revealed high heterogeneity between locations. We suggest that policies and action plans should pay special attention to vulnerable populations to promote efficient measures to reduce vulnerability and risks associated with droughts.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study.

AIMS: We aimed to investigate the heterogeneity of seasonal suicide patterns among multiple geographically, demographically and socioeconomically diverse populations. METHODS: Weekly time-series data of suicide counts for 354 communities in 12 countries during 1986-2016 were analysed. Two-stage analysis was performed. In the first stage, a generalised linear model, including cyclic splines, was used to estimate seasonal patterns of suicide for each community. In the second stage, the community-specific seasonal patterns were combined for each country using meta-regression. In addition, the community-specific seasonal patterns were regressed onto community-level socioeconomic, demographic and environmental indicators using meta-regression. RESULTS: We observed seasonal patterns in suicide, with the counts peaking in spring and declining to a trough in winter in most of the countries. However, the shape of seasonal patterns varied among countries from bimodal to unimodal seasonality. The amplitude of seasonal patterns (i.e. the peak/trough relative risk) also varied from 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-1.62) to 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.1) among 12 countries. The subgroup difference in the seasonal pattern also varied over countries. In some countries, larger amplitude was shown for females and for the elderly population (≥65 years of age) than for males and for younger people, respectively. The subperiod difference also varied; some countries showed increasing seasonality while others showed a decrease or little change. Finally, the amplitude was larger for communities with colder climates, higher proportions of elderly people and lower unemployment rates (p-values < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the common features of a spring peak and a winter trough, seasonal suicide patterns were largely heterogeneous in shape, amplitude, subgroup differences and temporal changes among different populations, as influenced by climate, demographic and socioeconomic conditions. Our findings may help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of seasonal suicide patterns and aid in improving the design of population-specific suicide prevention programmes based on these patterns.