Are risk assessment tools more accurate than unstructured judgments in predicting violent, any, and sexual offending? A meta-analysis of direct comparison studies.

We conducted a pre-registered meta-analysis of studies that directly compared the predictive validity of risk assessment tools to unstructured judgments of risk for violent, any, or sexual offending. A total of 31 studies, containing 169 effect sizes from 45,673 risk judgments, met inclusion criteria. Based on the results of three-level mixed-effects meta-regression models, the predictive validity of total scores on risk assessment tools was significantly higher than that of unstructured judgments for predictions of violent, any, and sexual offending. Tools continued to outperform unstructured judgments after accounting for risk of bias. This finding was also robust to variations in population, assessment context, and outcome measurement. Although this meta-analysis provides support for the use of risk assessment tools, it also highlights limitations and gaps that future research should address.

Violence and Suicidal/Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among Adolescents Undergoing Residential Treatment: An Examination of the Predictive Validity of the SAVRY, START:AV, and VRS-YV.

Using a retrospective study design, predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth, Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START: AV), and the Violence Risk Scale-Youth Version (VRS-YV) was examined among 87 adolescents referred to a residential treatment program. With few exceptions, moderate to high accuracy was achieved for the three measures in predicting violence and suicidal/nonsuicidal self-injury occurring during the adolescents' time in treatment. Accuracy of the measures peaked within 90 days for violence and gradually increased over the 180-day follow-up for suicidal/nonsuicidal self-injury. Dynamic factors were more predictive of repeated events involving violence relative to static/historical factors, whereas only factors from the START: AV were predictive of repeated events involving suicidal/nonsuicidal self-injury. These results emphasize the need for further examining the risk of adverse outcomes beyond violence among adolescents.

Predictive validity of the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV is poor for intimate partner violence perpetration among adolescent offenders.

OBJECTIVE: Despite advances in developing structured risk assessment instruments, there is currently no instrument to assess and manage the risk of intimate partner violence perpetration among adolescents. Given the empirical link between many forms of antisocial behavior, we tested whether structured tools commonly used by professionals to evaluate adolescents' risk of engaging in general violence and offending could be used to identify adolescents at risk for perpetrating intimate partner violence. HYPOTHESES: Because researchers have not yet examined whether risk assessment tools for general violence and offending predict intimate partner violence perpetration, we did not have a priori hypotheses regarding the predictive validity of these tools for this purpose. METHOD: Research assistants rated 156 adjudicated youth on the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), and Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) and recorded charges for intimate partner violence perpetration, any violent reoffending, and any reoffending over a 2-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that total scores and summary risk ratings on the SAVRY and YLS/CMI and total scores on the PCL:YV were significantly predictive of any violent reoffending and any reoffending, with moderate to large effect sizes, but were nonsignificantly associated with intimate partner violence perpetration. Further, penalized logistic regression analysis indicated that the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV did not significantly add incremental validity to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and prior intimate partner violence perpetration and victimization for predicting future intimate partner violence perpetration. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV could have limitations for assessing and managing intimate partner violence perpetration among adolescents. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among a sample of Asian Canadian youth on probation.

OBJECTIVE: Although past studies suggest that the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum et al., 2006) has moderate predictive validity, its predictive validity with Asian youth in Western countries is unknown. We therefore compared the SAVRY's predictive validity in a sample of Asian Canadian versus White Canadian youth. HYPOTHESES: Given that the SAVRY is normed on samples comprising mostly youth who are White, we expected its predictive validity for recidivism would be lower for Asian Canadians than White Canadians. METHOD: We examined youth probation officers' SAVRY assessments for 573 youth (445 White Canadians, 56 East/Southeast Asian Canadians, and 72 South Asian Canadians) on community supervision (i.e. probation) in a Canadian province. Youth were prospectively followed for an average of 1.97 years (SD = 0.56 years) to determine if they were subsequently charged with violent or nonviolent offenses. RESULTS: Asian Canadians scored significantly lower on risk total scores compared to White Canadians. Predictive validity for violent and nonviolent recidivism fell in the medium to large range for East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUCs = .69 to .89) and South Asian Canadians (AUCs = .64 to .83). In comparison, predictive validity for White Canadians was generally lower (AUCs = .63 to .77; small to large range). Risk total scores and nonviolent risk ratings significantly predicted nonviolent recidivism better for East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUCs = .89 and .87, respectively) than White Canadians (AUCs = .77 and .71, respectively). Despite few significant differences between Asian subgroups, predictive validity for nonviolent risk ratings was significantly higher in East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUC = .87) than South Asian Canadians (AUC = .64). CONCLUSIONS: The SAVRY may be a useful tool for predicting recidivism with Asian Canadians. However, future research should examine the SAVRY's predictive validity for youth of Asian descent in different countries and contexts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Impact of risk assessment instruments on rates of pretrial detention, postconviction placements, and release: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Many agencies use risk assessment instruments to guide decisions about pretrial detention, postconviction incarceration, and release from custody. Although some policymakers believe that these tools might reduce overincarceration and recidivism rates, others are concerned that they may exacerbate racial and ethnic disparities in placements. The objective of this systematic review was to test these assertions. HYPOTHESES: It was hypothesized that the adoption of tools might slightly decrease incarceration rates, and that impact on disparities might vary by tool and context. METHOD: Published and unpublished studies were identified by searching 13 databases, reviewing reference lists, and contacting experts. In total, 22 studies met inclusion criteria; these studies included 1,444,499 adolescents and adults who were accused or convicted of a crime. Each study was coded by 2 independent raters using a data extraction form and a risk of bias tool. Results were aggregated using both a narrative approach and meta-analyses. RESULTS: The adoption of tools was associated with (a) small overall decreases in restrictive placements (aggregated odds ratio [OR] = 0.63, p < .001), particularly for individuals who were low risk and (b) small reductions in any recidivism (OR = 0.85, p = .020). However, after removing studies with a high risk of bias, the results were no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Although risk assessment tools might help to reduce restrictive placements, the strength of this evidence is low. Furthermore, because of a lack of research, it is unclear how tools impact racial and ethnic disparities in placements. As such, future research is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Do risk assessment tools help manage and reduce risk of violence and reoffending? A systematic review.

Although it is widely believed that risk assessment tools can help manage risk of violence and offending, it is unclear what evidence exists to support this view. As such, we conducted a systematic review and narrative synthesis. To identify studies, we searched 13 databases, reviewed reference lists, and contacted experts. Through this review, we identified 73 published and unpublished studies (N = 31,551 psychiatric patients and offenders, N = 10,002 professionals) that examined either professionals' risk management efforts following the use of a tool, or rates of violence or offending following the implementation of a tool. These studies included a variety of populations (e.g., adults, adolescents), tools, and study designs. The primary findings were as follows: (a) despite some promising findings, professionals do not consistently adhere to tools or apply them to guide their risk management efforts; (b) following the use of a tool, match to the risk principle is moderate and match to the needs principle is limited, as many needs remained unaddressed; (c) there is insufficient evidence to conclude that tools directly reduce violence or reoffending, as findings are mixed; and (d) tools appear to have a more beneficial impact on risk management when agencies use careful implementation procedures and provide staff with training and guidelines related to risk management. In sum, although risk assessment tools may be an important starting point, they do not guarantee effective treatment or risk management. However, certain strategies may bolster their utility. (PsycINFO Database Record

Are adolescent risk assessment tools sensitive to change? A framework and examination of the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI.

Although many adolescent risk assessment tools include an emphasis on dynamic factors, little research has examined the extent to which these tools are capable of measuring change. In this article, we outline a framework to evaluate a tool's capacity to measure change. This framework includes the following: (a) measurement error and reliable change, and (b) sensitivity (i.e., internal, external, and relative sensitivity). We then used this framework to evaluate the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI). Research assistants conducted 509 risk assessments with 146 adolescents on probation (101 male, 45 female), who were assessed every 3 months over a 1-year period. Internal sensitivity (i.e., change over time) was partially supported in that a modest proportion of youth showed reliable changes over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. External sensitivity (i.e., the association between change scores and reoffending) was also partially supported. In particular, 22% of the associations between change scores and any and violent reoffending were significant at a 6-month follow-up. However, only 1 change score (i.e., peer associations) remained significant after the Bonferroni correction was applied. Finally, relative sensitivity was not supported, as the SAVRY and YLS/CMI was not more dynamic than the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). Specifically, the 1-year rank-order stability coefficients for the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV Total Scores were .78, .75, and .76, respectively. Although the SAVRY and YLS/CMI hold promise, further efforts may help to enhance sensitivity to short-term changes in risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending.

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed.

Questioning fairness: the relationship of mental health and psychopathic characteristics with young offenders' perceptions of procedural justice and legitimacy.

BACKGROUND: Theories of procedural justice suggest that individuals who experience the criminal justice system as fair are more likely to perceive it as legitimate and, in turn, are less likely to reoffend. However, when individuals come into contact with the legal system, they are not blank slates - they have beliefs and personality characteristics that may systematically influence such perceptions. AIMS: Our aim was to establish the extent to which demographic characteristics, legal history and clinical features, including personality characteristics, systematically influenced the degree to which young people experience the justice system as fair and legitimate. METHOD: Self-report, file and interview data were collected from ninety-two 12 to 17-year-olds on probation in Western Canada. RESULTS: Substance use and traumatic experiences were inversely correlated with perceptions of procedural justice and legal legitimacy. Young people with higher scores on interpersonal, lifestyle and antisocial facets of the psychopathy checklist: youth version believed less strongly in the legitimacy of the law, but regression analyses confirmed that only history of trauma was independently associated with perceived procedural justice and legitimacy. Those in the youngest age group were more likely to have positive perceptions of justice than older youths, but demographics and legal history otherwise did not relate to outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that examining the relationship between procedural justice, legitimacy and offending without taking intra-individual variables into account may neglect important influences on those relationships. Other research has begun to show that young people who do not accept the law as legitimate or the criminal justice system as fair are more likely to offend. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Remorse, psychopathology, and psychopathy among adolescent offenders.

Remorse has long been important to the juvenile justice system. However, the nature of this construct has not yet been clearly articulated, and little research has examined its relationships with other theoretically and forensically relevant variables. The present study was intended to address these issues by examining relationships among remorse, psychopathology, and psychopathy in a sample of adolescent offenders (N = 97) using the theoretically and empirically established framework of guilt and shame (Tangney & Dearing, 2002). Findings indicated that shame was positively related to behavioral features of psychopathy, whereas guilt was negatively related to psychopathic characteristics more broadly. In addition, shame was positively associated with numerous mental health problems whereas guilt was negatively associated with anger, depression, and anxiety. These results provide empirical support for theory that psychopathy is characterized by lack of remorse (e.g., Hare, 1991), and also underscore shame and guilt as potentially important treatment targets for adolescent offenders.

Evaluating the psycholegal abilities of young offenders with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

Individuals with a diagnosis of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) experience a range of physical, cognitive, and behavioral deficits thought to interfere with their ability to competently navigate the arrest, interrogation, and trial process. This study examined the psycholegal abilities of young offenders with FASD, including their understanding and appreciation of Miranda rights, and adjudication capacities (factual knowledge of criminal procedure, appreciation of the nature and object of the proceedings, ability to participate in a defense and communicate with counsel). Two groups of young offenders (50 with FASD and 50 without prenatal alcohol exposure) completed Grisso's Instruments for Assessing Understanding and Appreciation of Miranda rights and the Fitness Interview Test-Revised to assess overall rates of impairment in youth with FASD, as well as differences between the groups. Potentially important predictors of psycholegal abilities were also evaluated. Results indicated the majority of young offenders with FASD (90%) showed impairment in at least one psycholegal ability, and rates of impairment were significantly higher than the comparison group. However, considerable within-group variability was observed. IQ and reading comprehension emerged as robust predictors of participants' psycholegal abilities, while the FASD diagnosis differentiated participants' scores on the FIT-R. These findings underscore the importance of individualized and comprehensive forensic assessments of psycholegal abilities in this population when warranted. Additional system level strains for this population are discussed, including problems in approaching competency remediation, and the potentially growing need for accommodation and forensic assessments in the face of limited financial and professional resources in legal settings.

Procedural justice versus risk factors for offending: predicting recidivism in youth.

Theories of procedural justice suggest that individuals who experience respectful and fair legal decision-making procedures are more likely to believe in the legitimacy of the law and, in turn, are less likely to reoffend. However, few studies have examined these relationships in youth. To begin to fill this gap in the literature, in the current study, the authors studied 92 youth (67 male, 25 female) on probation regarding their perceptions of procedural justice and legitimacy, and then monitored their offending over the subsequent 6 months. Results indicated that perceptions of procedural justice predicted self-reported offending at 3 months but not at 6 months, and that youths' beliefs about the legitimacy of the law did not mediate this relationship. Furthermore, procedural justice continued to account for unique variance in self-reported offending over and above the predictive power of well-established risk factors for offending (i.e., peer delinquency, substance abuse, psychopathy, and age at first contact with the law). Theoretically, the current study provides evidence that models of procedural justice developed for adults are only partially replicated in a sample of youth; practically, this research suggests that by treating adolescents in a fair and just manner, justice professionals may be able to reduce the likelihood that adolescents will reoffend, at least in the short term.

Risk and protective factors for recidivism among juveniles who have offended sexually.

Literature on risk factors for recidivism among juveniles who have sexually offended (JSOs) is limited. In addition, there have been no studies published concerning protective factors among this population. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of risk and protective factors to sexual and nonsexual recidivism among a sample of 193 male JSOs (mean age = 15.26). Youths were followed for an average of 7.24 years following discharge from a residential sex offender treatment program. The risk factor opportunities to reoffend, as coded based on the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism, was associated with sexual recidivism. Several risk factors (e.g., prior offending; peer delinquency) were associated with nonsexual recidivism. No protective factors examined were associated with sexual recidivism, although strong attachments and bonds as measured by the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth was negatively related to nonsexual recidivism. These findings indicate that risk factors for nonsexual recidivism may be consistent across both general adolescent offender populations and JSOs, but that there may be distinct protective factors that apply to sexual recidivism among JSOs. Results also indicate important needs for further research on risk factors, protective factors, and risk management strategies for JSOs.

Prediction of adolescent sexual reoffending: a meta-analysis of the J-SOAP-II, ERASOR, J-SORRAT-II, and Static-99.

Several risk assessment tools, including the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (Prentky & Righthand, 2003), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (Worling & Curwen, 2001), the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (Epperson, Ralston, Fowers, DeWitt, & Gore, 2006), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999), have been used to assess reoffense risk among adolescents who have committed sexual offenses. Given that research on these tools has yielded somewhat mixed results, we empirically synthesized 33 published and unpublished studies involving 6,196 male adolescents who had committed a sexual offense. We conducted two separate meta-analyses, first with correlations and then with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs). Total scores on each of the tools significantly predicted sexual reoffending, with aggregated correlations ranging from .12 to .20 and aggregated AUC scores ranging from .64 to .67. However, in many cases heterogeneity across studies was moderate to high. There were no significant differences between tools, and although the Static-99 was developed for adults, it achieved similar results as the adolescent tools. Results are compared to other meta-analyses of risk tools used in the area of violence risk assessment and in other fields.

Adverse childhood experiences and recidivism in Indigenous and white female and male adolescents on probation.

BACKGROUND: Even though Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in the Canadian justice system, little research has studied potential mechanisms for this overrepresentation. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, the current study examined the association between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and recidivism. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A Canadian sample comprised 187 justice-involved Indigenous and White female and male adolescents aged 13 to 20. METHODS: ACEs, reoffense records, Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum, Bartel & Forth, 2006) assessments, and demographic data were coded from justice files with a mean follow-up period of 1.50 years (SE = 0.03, IQR = 0.58). RESULTS: Results showed that compared to White adolescents, Indigenous adolescents had significantly higher ACE scores. Indigenous males violently recidivated significantly more than White males and Indigenous females had significantly more any recidivism than White females. ACEs predicted and shortened time to any recidivism, added incremental validity above the SAVRY for any recidivism, and explained the relationship between Indigenous ethnicity and any recidivism. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the current study found that ACEs were especially important for Indigenous adolescents. As such, using collateral information to glean ACEs alongside the SAVRY and including Indigenous specific trauma interventions (e.g., Honoring Children interventions) may reduce recidivism for Indigenous adolescents. Future research should incorporate participatory action approaches and focus on how colonialism plays into justice overrepresentation for Indigenous adolescents.

Sexual offending in adolescence: a comparison of sibling offenders and nonsibling offenders across domains of risk and treatment need.

Sibling sexual offending has received limited empirical attention, despite estimates that approximately half of all adolescent-perpetrated sexual offenses involve a sibling victim. The present study addresses this gap by examining male adolescent sibling (n = 100) and nonsibling offenders (n = 66) with regard to maltreatment histories and scores on two adolescent risk/need assessment instruments, the ERASOR and YLS/CMI. Adolescents who sexually abused a sibling, versus a nonsibling, were more likely to have histories of sexual abuse and been exposed to domestic violence and pornography. There were no group differences on ERASOR and YLS/CMI scales. This study adds to the limited discourse on sibling sexual offending and the larger literature on the heterogeneity of adolescents who have sexually offended.

Ten-Year Trends in Physical Dating Violence Victimization Among Adolescent Boys and Girls in British Columbia, Canada.

Physical dating violence (PDV) victimization among adolescents is a serious global problem. Although knowledge of trends in PDV victimization can help guide programming and health policies, little research has examined whether the prevalence of PDV victimization has increased, decreased, or remained stable over time among non-U.S.-based samples of youth. In addition, few studies have directly tested whether disparities in PDV victimization between boys and girls have narrowed, widened, or remained unchanged in recent years. To address these gaps, we used school-based data from the British Columbia Adolescent Health Survey (BC AHS) of 2003, 2008, and 2013 (n boys = 18,441 and n girls = 17,459) to examine 10-year trends in PDV victimization. We also tested whether trends differed across self-reported sex. Data from the 2003 to 2013 BC AHS revealed that recent PDV victimization rates had significantly decreased among youth overall (5.9%-5.0%) and boys (8.0%-5.8%), but not girls (5.3%-4.2%). Although boys had steeper declines than girls in PDV victimization rates, year-by-sex interactions indicate that the sex gap in PDV victimization had not significantly narrowed. Moreover, rates of PDV victimization over the 10-year period indicated significantly higher rates of PDV victimization among boys compared with girls. Despite positive declines in recent rates of PDV victimization among youth, important differences in rates of PDV victimization between boys and girls remain. These findings underscore the need for greater attention to sex differences in research and programming and health policies to reduce PDV victimization and the sex disparities therein.

Do Community Structural Characteristics Moderate the Association Between Mental Health and the Frequency and Severity of Violent-Behavioral Outcomes in Community Respondents?

In this prospective study, we examined the association between three types of mental health symptom clusters (i.e., psychotic, internalizing, and externalizing) and the frequency and severity of violent-behavioral outcomes, and whether community disadvantage, residential instability, and criminogenic facility density moderated these associations. Study data were derived from 258 community-dwelling adults nested in 60 postal forward sortation areas (FSAs) in a large metropolitan area in Western Canada who were assessed twice over a 6-month period. In addition, census and administrative data were obtained on the same areas. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics (i.e., age, gender, ethnicity, relationship status, and employment status), lifetime history of violent-behavioral outcomes, and community structural characteristics, internalizing and externalizing mental health symptoms were significantly positively associated with the frequency and severity of subsequent violence perpetration and with the severity of subsequent violent victimization. Several significant interactions were observed: internalizing symptoms increased the risk of frequent and severe violence perpetration in FSAs with high but not low disadvantage, and externalizing symptoms increased the risk of frequent violent victimization in FSAs with a high but not low criminogenic facility density. Only the interactive association of internalizing symptoms and community disadvantage with the severity of violence perpetration, however, remained significant after Bonferroni correction was applied. These findings provide tentative support that associations between mental health and violent-behavioral outcomes can vary with community context. The implication of these findings for assessing and managing violent-behavioral outcomes in the community is discussed.

The Role of Life Satisfaction in Predicting Youth Violence and Offending: A Prospective Examination.

Life satisfaction in adolescence has been shown to protect against numerous negative outcomes (e.g., substance use, sexual risk-taking), but limited work has directly explored the relationship between life satisfaction and youth violence and offending. As such, we conducted a prospective assessment to explore this relationship among community (n = 334) and at-risk youth (n = 99). Findings suggest life satisfaction is significantly associated with decreased offending and violence within both samples and adds incremental value above established risk factors in predicting violent and total offending among community youth. Furthermore, moderation analyses indicate that the protective value of life satisfaction is greater for youth with high callous-unemotional traits. Mediation analyses suggest that youth who are unsatisfied with their lives may seek out substance use, in turn elevating risk of offending. Together, these findings indicate that efforts to improve overall life satisfaction may help prevent adolescent offending. However, future research is needed.

Defense attorneys' concerns about the competence of adolescent defendants.

Research indicates that a sizable proportion of adolescent defendants have difficulty understanding and participating in legal proceedings against them, and may be incompetent to stand trial. To examine attorneys' experience in defending adolescents with competence-related difficulties, 214 juvenile attorneys were surveyed. Findings indicated that attorneys have doubts about the competence of approximately 10% of adolescent defendants, and that they find these cases particularly challenging to defend. Most attorneys appear to recognize that developmental factors may contribute to adolescents' competence-related difficulties, and believe that the law should accept developmental immaturity as a basis for incompetence findings. In approximately half of the cases in which attorneys had doubts about competence, attorneys did not request a competence evaluation but instead made other efforts to address competence issues, such as by teaching adolescents about legal proceedings and further involving their parents. The implications of these findings are discussed.