Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population.

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Both movements and breeding performance are affected by individual experience in the Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata.

Movement is a key behaviour to better understand how individuals respond to their environment. Movement behaviours are affected by both extrinsic factors that individuals face, such as weather conditions, and intrinsic factors, such as sex and experience. Because of the energy costs it entails, movement behaviours can have direct consequences on an individual's demographic parameters-and ultimately on population dynamics. However, the relationship between extrinsic factors, intrinsic factors, daily movement behaviour and demographic parameters such as breeding performance is poorly known, in particular for central place forager territorial species. We investigated here the link between movement behaviours and breeding performance of the French population of Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata), a territorial and sedentary long-lived raptor, and how this link may depend on extrinsic and intrinsic factors. By using data from annual monitoring of breeding performance for the population and GPS tracking of 48 individuals (26 males and 22 females), we found that the breeding performance of this population was mainly driven by whether a new individual was recruited into the territory, and only slightly by weather conditions. Movement behaviours (proportion of time in flight, range of movement and straightness of trajectories) showed large between-individual variation. Those behaviours were related with weather conditions (wind and rainfall) at a daily scale, as well as with individual's experience. We found only one significant correlation between movements and breeding performance: male Bonelli's eagles spending more time flying during chick-rearing phase had lower productivity. Movement behaviours and breeding performance were also indirectly linked through individual's experience, with more experienced birds having better breeding success and a shorter range of movement and spent less time in flight. This suggests that experienced individuals progressively acquire knowledge of their breeding territory, are more efficient in finding prey, and adapt their foraging strategies to weather conditions to minimise energy costs, allowing them higher breeding performance.

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system.

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.