A DNA methylation biomarker of alcohol consumption.

The lack of reliable measures of alcohol intake is a major obstacle to the diagnosis and treatment of alcohol-related diseases. Epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation may provide novel biomarkers of alcohol use. To examine this possibility, we performed an epigenome-wide association study of methylation of cytosine-phosphate-guanine dinucleotide (CpG) sites in relation to alcohol intake in 13 population-based cohorts (ntotal=13 317; 54% women; mean age across cohorts 42-76 years) using whole blood (9643 European and 2423 African ancestries) or monocyte-derived DNA (588 European, 263 African and 400 Hispanic ancestry) samples. We performed meta-analysis and variable selection in whole-blood samples of people of European ancestry (n=6926) and identified 144 CpGs that provided substantial discrimination (area under the curve=0.90-0.99) for current heavy alcohol intake (⩾42 g per day in men and ⩾28 g per day in women) in four replication cohorts. The ancestry-stratified meta-analysis in whole blood identified 328 (9643 European ancestry samples) and 165 (2423 African ancestry samples) alcohol-related CpGs at Bonferroni-adjusted P<1 × 10-7. Analysis of the monocyte-derived DNA (n=1251) identified 62 alcohol-related CpGs at P<1 × 10-7. In whole-blood samples of people of European ancestry, we detected differential methylation in two neurotransmitter receptor genes, the γ-Aminobutyric acid-A receptor delta and γ-aminobutyric acid B receptor subunit 1; their differential methylation was associated with expression levels of a number of genes involved in immune function. In conclusion, we have identified a robust alcohol-related DNA methylation signature and shown the potential utility of DNA methylation as a clinically useful diagnostic test to detect current heavy alcohol consumption.

Embracing polygenicity: a review of methods and tools for psychiatric genetics research.

The availability of genome-wide genetic data on hundreds of thousands of people has led to an equally rapid growth in methodologies available to analyse these data. While the motivation for undertaking genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is identification of genetic markers associated with complex traits, once generated these data can be used for many other analyses. GWAS have demonstrated that complex traits exhibit a highly polygenic genetic architecture, often with shared genetic risk factors across traits. New methods to analyse data from GWAS are increasingly being used to address a diverse set of questions about the aetiology of complex traits and diseases, including psychiatric disorders. Here, we give an overview of some of these methods and present examples of how they have contributed to our understanding of psychiatric disorders. We consider: (i) estimation of the extent of genetic influence on traits, (ii) uncovering of shared genetic control between traits, (iii) predictions of genetic risk for individuals, (iv) uncovering of causal relationships between traits, (v) identifying causal single-nucleotide polymorphisms and genes or (vi) the detection of genetic heterogeneity. This classification helps organise the large number of recently developed methods, although some could be placed in more than one category. While some methods require GWAS data on individual people, others simply use GWAS summary statistics data, allowing novel well-powered analyses to be conducted at a low computational burden.

Assessing the genetic overlap between BMI and cognitive function.

Obesity and low cognitive function are associated with multiple adverse health outcomes across the life course. They have a small phenotypic correlation (r=-0.11; high body mass index (BMI)-low cognitive function), but whether they have a shared genetic aetiology is unknown. We investigated the phenotypic and genetic correlations between the traits using data from 6815 unrelated, genotyped members of Generation Scotland, an ethnically homogeneous cohort from five sites across Scotland. Genetic correlations were estimated using the following: same-sample bivariate genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA)-GREML; independent samples bivariate GCTA-GREML using Generation Scotland for cognitive data and four other samples (n=20 806) for BMI; and bivariate LDSC analysis using the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data on cognitive function (n=48 462) and BMI (n=339 224) to date. The GWAS summary data were also used to create polygenic scores for the two traits, with within- and cross-trait prediction taking place in the independent Generation Scotland cohort. A large genetic correlation of -0.51 (s.e. 0.15) was observed using the same-sample GCTA-GREML approach compared with -0.10 (s.e. 0.08) from the independent-samples GCTA-GREML approach and -0.22 (s.e. 0.03) from the bivariate LDSC analysis. A genetic profile score using cognition-specific genetic variants accounts for 0.08% (P=0.020) of the variance in BMI and a genetic profile score using BMI-specific variants accounts for 0.42% (P=1.9 × 10(-7)) of the variance in cognitive function. Seven common genetic variants are significantly associated with both traits at P<5 × 10(-5), which is significantly more than expected by chance (P=0.007). All these results suggest there are shared genetic contributions to BMI and cognitive function.

Genome-wide autozygosity is associated with lower general cognitive ability.

Inbreeding depression refers to lower fitness among offspring of genetic relatives. This reduced fitness is caused by the inheritance of two identical chromosomal segments (autozygosity) across the genome, which may expose the effects of (partially) recessive deleterious mutations. Even among outbred populations, autozygosity can occur to varying degrees due to cryptic relatedness between parents. Using dense genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, we examined the degree to which autozygosity associated with measured cognitive ability in an unselected sample of 4854 participants of European ancestry. We used runs of homozygosity-multiple homozygous SNPs in a row-to estimate autozygous tracts across the genome. We found that increased levels of autozygosity predicted lower general cognitive ability, and estimate a drop of 0.6 s.d. among the offspring of first cousins (P=0.003-0.02 depending on the model). This effect came predominantly from long and rare autozygous tracts, which theory predicts as more likely to be deleterious than short and common tracts. Association mapping of autozygous tracts did not reveal any specific regions that were predictive beyond chance after correcting for multiple testing genome wide. The observed effect size is consistent with studies of cognitive decline among offspring of known consanguineous relationships. These findings suggest a role for multiple recessive or partially recessive alleles in general cognitive ability, and that alleles decreasing general cognitive ability have been selected against over evolutionary time.

Leveraging genetically simple traits to identify small-effect variants for complex phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Polymorphisms underlying complex traits often explain a small part (less than 1 %) of the phenotypic variance (σ2P). This makes identification of mutations underling complex traits difficult and usually only a subset of large-effect loci are identified. One approach to identify more loci is to increase sample size of experiments but here we propose an alternative. The aim of this paper is to use secondary phenotypes for genetically simple traits during the QTL discovery phase for complex traits. We demonstrate this approach in a dairy cattle data set where the complex traits were milk production phenotypes (fat, milk and protein yield; fat and protein percentage in milk) measured on thousands of individuals while secondary (potentially genetically simpler) traits are detailed milk composition traits (measurements of individual protein abundance, mineral and sugar concentrations; and gene expression). RESULTS: Quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified using 11,527 Holstein cattle with milk production records and up to 444 cows with milk composition traits. There were eight regions that contained QTL for both milk production and a composition trait, including four novel regions. One region on BTAU1 affected both milk yield and phosphorous concentration in milk. The QTL interval included the gene SLC37A1, a phosphorous antiporter. The most significant imputed sequence variants in this region explained 0.001 σ2P for milk yield, and 0.11 σ2P for phosphorus concentration. Since the polymorphisms were non-coding, association mapping for SLC37A1 gene expression was performed using high depth mammary RNAseq data from a separate group of 371 lactating cows. This confirmed a strong eQTL for SLC37A1, with peak association at the same imputed sequence variants that were most significant for phosphorus concentration. Fitting any of these variants as covariables in the association analysis removed the QTL signal for milk production traits. Plausible causative mutations in the casein complex region were also identified using a similar strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Milk production traits in dairy cows are typical complex traits where polymorphisms explain only a small portion of the phenotypic variance. However, here we show that these mutations can have larger effects on secondary traits, such as concentrations of minerals, proteins and sugars in the milk, and expression levels of genes in mammary tissue. These larger effects were used to successfully map variants for milk production traits. Genetically simple traits also provide a direct biological link between possible causal mutations and the effect of these mutations on milk production.

DNA evidence for strong genetic stability and increasing heritability of intelligence from age 7 to 12.

Two genetic findings from twin research have far-reaching implications for understanding individual differences in the development of brain function as indexed by general cognitive ability (g, aka intelligence): (1) The same genes affect g throughout development, even though (2) heritability increases. It is now possible to test these hypotheses using DNA alone. From 1.7 million DNA markers and g scores at ages 7 and 12 on 2875 children, the DNA genetic correlation from age 7 to 12 was 0.73, highly similar to the genetic correlation of 0.75 estimated from 6702 pairs of twins from the same sample. DNA-estimated heritabilities increased from 0.26 at age 7 to 0.45 at age 12; twin-estimated heritabilities also increased from 0.35 to 0.48. These DNA results confirm the results of twin studies indicating strong genetic stability but increasing heritability for g, despite mean changes in brain structure and function from childhood to adolescence.

708 Common and 2010 rare DISC1 locus variants identified in 1542 subjects: analysis for association with psychiatric disorder and cognitive traits.

A balanced t(1;11) translocation that transects the Disrupted in schizophrenia 1 (DISC1) gene shows genome-wide significant linkage for schizophrenia and recurrent major depressive disorder (rMDD) in a single large Scottish family, but genome-wide and exome sequencing-based association studies have not supported a role for DISC1 in psychiatric illness. To explore DISC1 in more detail, we sequenced 528 kb of the DISC1 locus in 653 cases and 889 controls. We report 2718 validated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of which 2010 have a minor allele frequency of <1%. Only 38% of these variants are reported in the 1000 Genomes Project European subset. This suggests that many DISC1 SNPs remain undiscovered and are essentially private. Rare coding variants identified exclusively in patients were found in likely functional protein domains. Significant region-wide association was observed between rs16856199 and rMDD (P=0.026, unadjusted P=6.3 × 10(-5), OR=3.48). This was not replicated in additional recurrent major depression samples (replication P=0.11). Combined analysis of both the original and replication set supported the original association (P=0.0058, OR=1.46). Evidence for segregation of this variant with disease in families was limited to those of rMDD individuals referred from primary care. Burden analysis for coding and non-coding variants gave nominal associations with diagnosis and measures of mood and cognition. Together, these observations are likely to generalise to other candidate genes for major mental illness and may thus provide guidelines for the design of future studies.

A genome-wide association study implicates the APOE locus in nonpathological cognitive ageing.

Cognitive decline is a feared aspect of growing old. It is a major contributor to lower quality of life and loss of independence in old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to individual differences in nonpathological cognitive ageing in five cohorts of older adults. We undertook a genome-wide association analysis using 549 692 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 3511 unrelated adults in the Cognitive Ageing Genetics in England and Scotland (CAGES) project. These individuals have detailed longitudinal cognitive data from which phenotypes measuring each individual's cognitive changes were constructed. One SNP--rs2075650, located in TOMM40 (translocase of the outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homolog)--had a genome-wide significant association with cognitive ageing (P=2.5 × 10(-8)). This result was replicated in a meta-analysis of three independent Swedish cohorts (P=2.41 × 10(-6)). An Apolipoprotein E (APOE) haplotype (adjacent to TOMM40), previously associated with cognitive ageing, had a significant effect on cognitive ageing in the CAGES sample (P=2.18 × 10(-8); females, P=1.66 × 10(-11); males, P=0.01). Fine SNP mapping of the TOMM40/APOE region identified both APOE (rs429358; P=3.66 × 10(-11)) and TOMM40 (rs11556505; P=2.45 × 10(-8)) as loci that were associated with cognitive ageing. Imputation and conditional analyses in the discovery and replication cohorts strongly suggest that this effect is due to APOE (rs429358). Functional genomic analysis indicated that SNPs in the TOMM40/APOE region have a functional, regulatory non-protein-coding effect. The APOE region is significantly associated with nonpathological cognitive ageing. The identity and mechanism of one or multiple causal variants remain unclear.

Childhood intelligence is heritable, highly polygenic and associated with FNBP1L.

Intelligence in childhood, as measured by psychometric cognitive tests, is a strong predictor of many important life outcomes, including educational attainment, income, health and lifespan. Results from twin, family and adoption studies are consistent with general intelligence being highly heritable and genetically stable throughout the life course. No robustly associated genetic loci or variants for childhood intelligence have been reported. Here, we report the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) on childhood intelligence (age range 6-18 years) from 17,989 individuals in six discovery and three replication samples. Although no individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were detected with genome-wide significance, we show that the aggregate effects of common SNPs explain 22-46% of phenotypic variation in childhood intelligence in the three largest cohorts (P=3.9 × 10(-15), 0.014 and 0.028). FNBP1L, previously reported to be the most significantly associated gene for adult intelligence, was also significantly associated with childhood intelligence (P=0.003). Polygenic prediction analyses resulted in a significant correlation between predictor and outcome in all replication cohorts. The proportion of childhood intelligence explained by the predictor reached 1.2% (P=6 × 10(-5)), 3.5% (P=10(-3)) and 0.5% (P=6 × 10(-5)) in three independent validation cohorts. Given the sample sizes, these genetic prediction results are consistent with expectations if the genetic architecture of childhood intelligence is like that of body mass index or height. Our study provides molecular support for the heritability and polygenic nature of childhood intelligence. Larger sample sizes will be required to detect individual variants with genome-wide significance.

Quantitative genetics of disease traits.

John James authored two key papers on the theory of risk to relatives for binary disease traits and the relationship between parameters on the observed binary scale and an unobserved scale of liability (James Annals of Human Genetics, 1971; 35: 47; Reich, James and Morris Annals of Human Genetics, 1972; 36: 163). These two papers are John James' most cited papers (198 and 328 citations, November 2014). They have been influential in human genetics and have recently gained renewed popularity because of their relevance to the estimation of quantitative genetics parameters for disease traits using SNP data. In this review, we summarize the two early papers and put them into context. We show recent extensions of the theory for ascertained case-control data and review recent applications in human genetics.

A new regulatory variant in the interleukin-6 receptor gene associates with asthma risk.

The main genetic determinant of soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R) levels is the missense variant rs2228145 that maps to the cleavage site of IL-6R. For each Ala allele, sIL-6R serum levels increase by ≈ 20 ng ml(-1) and asthma risk by 1.09-fold. However, this variant does not explain the total heritability for sIL-6R levels. Additional independent variants in IL6R may therefore contribute to variation in sIL-6R levels and influence asthma risk. We imputed 471 variants in IL6R and tested these for association with sIL-6R serum levels in 360 individuals. An intronic variant (rs12083537) was associated with sIL-6R levels independently of rs4129267 (P=0.0005), a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism for rs2228145. A significant and consistent association for rs12083537 was observed in a replication panel of 354 individuals (P=0.033). Each rs12083537:A allele increased sIL-6R serum levels by 2.4 ng ml(-1). Analysis of mRNA levels in two cohorts did not identify significant associations between rs12083537 and IL6R transcription levels. On the other hand, results from 16,705 asthmatics and 30,809 controls showed that the rs12083537:A allele increased asthma risk by 1.04-fold (P=0.0419). Genetic risk scores based on IL6R regulatory variants may prove useful in explaining variation in clinical response to tocilizumab, an anti-IL-6R monoclonal antibody.

Estimation of pleiotropy between complex diseases using single-nucleotide polymorphism-derived genomic relationships and restricted maximum likelihood.

SUMMARY: Genetic correlations are the genome-wide aggregate effects of causal variants affecting multiple traits. Traditionally, genetic correlations between complex traits are estimated from pedigree studies, but such estimates can be confounded by shared environmental factors. Moreover, for diseases, low prevalence rates imply that even if the true genetic correlation between disorders was high, co-aggregation of disorders in families might not occur or could not be distinguished from chance. We have developed and implemented statistical methods based on linear mixed models to obtain unbiased estimates of the genetic correlation between pairs of quantitative traits or pairs of binary traits of complex diseases using population-based case-control studies with genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data. The method is validated in a simulation study and applied to estimate genetic correlation between various diseases from Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium data in a series of bivariate analyses. We estimate a significant positive genetic correlation between risk of Type 2 diabetes and hypertension of ~0.31 (SE 0.14, P = 0.024). AVAILABILITY: Our methods, appropriate for both quantitative and binary traits, are implemented in the freely available software GCTA (http://www.complextraitgenomics.com/software/gcta/reml_bivar.html). CONTACT: hong.lee@uq.edu.au SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Evidence-based psychiatric genetics, AKA the false dichotomy between common and rare variant hypotheses.

In this article, we review some of the data that contribute to our understanding of the genetic architecture of psychiatric disorders. These include results from evolutionary modelling (hence no data), the observed recurrence risk to relatives and data from molecular markers. We briefly discuss the common-disease common-variant hypothesis, the success (or otherwise) of genome-wide association studies, the evidence for polygenic variance and the likely success of exome and whole-genome sequencing studies. We conclude that the perceived dichotomy between 'common' and 'rare' variants is not only false, but unhelpful in making progress towards increasing our understanding of the genetic basis of psychiatric disorders. Strong evidence has been accumulated that is consistent with the contribution of many genes to risk of disease, across a wide range of allele frequencies and with a substantial proportion of genetic variation in the population in linkage disequilibrium with single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on commercial genotyping arrays. At the same time, most causal variants that segregate in the population are likely to be rare and in total these variants also explain a significant proportion of genetic variation. It is the combination of allele frequency, effect size and functional characteristics that will determine the success of new experimental paradigms such as whole exome/genome sequencing to detect such loci. Empirical results suggest that roughly half the genetic variance is tagged by SNPs on commercial genome-wide chips, but that individual causal variants have a small effect size, on average. We conclude that larger experimental sample sizes are essential to further our understanding of the biology underlying psychiatric disorders.

Schizophrenia susceptibility alleles are enriched for alleles that affect gene expression in adult human brain.

It is widely thought that alleles that influence susceptibility to common diseases, including schizophrenia, will frequently do so through effects on gene expression. As only a small proportion of the genetic variance for schizophrenia has been attributed to specific loci, this remains an unproven hypothesis. The International Schizophrenia Consortium (ISC) recently reported a substantial polygenic contribution to that disorder, and that schizophrenia risk alleles are enriched among single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected for marginal evidence for association (P<0.5) from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). It follows that if schizophrenia susceptibility alleles are enriched for those that affect gene expression, those marginally associated SNPs, which are also expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), should carry more true association signals compared with SNPs that are not marginally associated. To test this, we identified marginally associated (P<0.5) SNPs from two of the largest available schizophrenia GWAS data sets. We assigned eQTL status to those SNPs based upon an eQTL data set derived from adult human brain. Using the polygenic score method of analysis reported by the ISC, we observed and replicated the observation that higher probability cis-eQTLs predicted schizophrenia better than those with a lower probability for being a cis-eQTL. Our data support the hypothesis that alleles conferring risk of schizophrenia are enriched among those that affect gene expression. Moreover, our data show that notwithstanding the likely developmental origin of schizophrenia, studies of adult brain tissue can, in principle, allow relevant susceptibility eQTLs to be identified.

Functional gene group analysis identifies synaptic gene groups as risk factor for schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable disorder with a polygenic pattern of inheritance and a population prevalence of ~1%. Previous studies have implicated synaptic dysfunction in schizophrenia. We tested the accumulated association of genetic variants in expert-curated synaptic gene groups with schizophrenia in 4673 cases and 4965 healthy controls, using functional gene group analysis. Identifying groups of genes with similar cellular function rather than genes in isolation may have clinical implications for finding additional drug targets. We found that a group of 1026 synaptic genes was significantly associated with the risk of schizophrenia (P=7.6 × 10(-11)) and more strongly associated than 100 randomly drawn, matched control groups of genetic variants (P<0.01). Subsequent analysis of synaptic subgroups suggested that the strongest association signals are derived from three synaptic gene groups: intracellular signal transduction (P=2.0 × 10(-4)), excitability (P=9.0 × 10(-4)) and cell adhesion and trans-synaptic signaling (P=2.4 × 10(-3)). These results are consistent with a role of synaptic dysfunction in schizophrenia and imply that impaired intracellular signal transduction in synapses, synaptic excitability and cell adhesion and trans-synaptic signaling play a role in the pathology of schizophrenia.

Genome-wide association studies establish that human intelligence is highly heritable and polygenic.

General intelligence is an important human quantitative trait that accounts for much of the variation in diverse cognitive abilities. Individual differences in intelligence are strongly associated with many important life outcomes, including educational and occupational attainments, income, health and lifespan. Data from twin and family studies are consistent with a high heritability of intelligence, but this inference has been controversial. We conducted a genome-wide analysis of 3511 unrelated adults with data on 549,692 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and detailed phenotypes on cognitive traits. We estimate that 40% of the variation in crystallized-type intelligence and 51% of the variation in fluid-type intelligence between individuals is accounted for by linkage disequilibrium between genotyped common SNP markers and unknown causal variants. These estimates provide lower bounds for the narrow-sense heritability of the traits. We partitioned genetic variation on individual chromosomes and found that, on average, longer chromosomes explain more variation. Finally, using just SNP data we predicted ∼1% of the variance of crystallized and fluid cognitive phenotypes in an independent sample (P=0.009 and 0.028, respectively). Our results unequivocally confirm that a substantial proportion of individual differences in human intelligence is due to genetic variation, and are consistent with many genes of small effects underlying the additive genetic influences on intelligence.

European and Polynesian admixture in the Norfolk Island population.

The Norfolk Island population in the South Pacific is primarily the product of recent admixture between a small number of British male and Polynesian female founders. We identified and genotyped 128 Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs) spread across the autosomes, X/Y chromosomes and mitochondrial DNA genome, to explore and quantify the current levels of genetic admixture in the Norfolk Islanders. On the basis of autosomal AIMs, the population shows mean European and Polynesian ancestry proportions of 88 and 12%, respectively. However, there is a substantial variation between individuals ranging from total European ancestry to near total Polynesian origin. There is a strong correlation between individual genetic estimates of Polynesian ancestry and those derived from the extensive pedigree and genealogical records of Islanders. Also in line with historical accounts, there is a substantial asymmetry in the maternal and paternal origins of the Islanders with almost all Y-chromosomes of European origin whereas at least 25% of mtDNAs appear to have a Polynesian origin. Accurate knowledge of ancestry will be important in future attempts to use the Island population in admixture mapping approaches to find the genes that underlie differences in the risk to some diseases between Europeans and Polynesians.

Family-based mitochondrial association study of traits related to type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome in adolescents.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: There has been much focus on the potential role of mitochondria in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome, and many case-control mitochondrial association studies have been undertaken for these conditions. We tested for a potential association between common mitochondrial variants and a number of quantitative traits related to type 2 diabetes in a large sample of >2,000 healthy Australian adolescent twins and their siblings, many of whom were measured on more than one occasion. METHODS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first mitochondrial association study of quantitative traits undertaken using family data. The maternal inheritance pattern of mitochondria means established association methodologies are unsuitable for analysis of mitochondrial data in families. We present a methodology, implemented in the freely available program Sib-Pair for performing such an analysis. RESULTS: Despite our study having the power to detect variants with modest effects on these phenotypes, only one significant association was found after correction for multiple testing in any of four age groups. This was for mt14365 with triacylglycerol levels (unadjusted p = 0.0006). This association was not replicated in other age groups. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We find little evidence in our sample to suggest that common European mitochondrial variants contribute to variation in quantitative phenotypes related to diabetes. Only one variant showed a significant association in our sample, and this association will need to be replicated in a larger cohort. Such replication studies or future meta-analyses may reveal more subtle effects that could not be detected here because of limitations of sample size.

Increased accuracy of artificial selection by using the realized relationship matrix.

Dense marker genotypes allow the construction of the realized relationship matrix between individuals, with elements the realized proportion of the genome that is identical by descent (IBD) between pairs of individuals. In this paper, we demonstrate that by replacing the average relationship matrix derived from pedigree with the realized relationship matrix in best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of breeding values, the accuracy of the breeding values can be substantially increased, especially for individuals with no phenotype of their own. We further demonstrate that this method of predicting breeding values is exactly equivalent to the genomic selection methodology where the effects of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) contributing to variation in the trait are assumed to be normally distributed. The accuracy of breeding values predicted using the realized relationship matrix in the BLUP equations can be deterministically predicted for known family relationships, for example half sibs. The deterministic method uses the effective number of independently segregating loci controlling the phenotype that depends on the type of family relationship and the length of the genome. The accuracy of predicted breeding values depends on this number of effective loci, the family relationship and the number of phenotypic records. The deterministic prediction demonstrates that the accuracy of breeding values can approach unity if enough relatives are genotyped and phenotyped. For example, when 1000 full sibs per family were genotyped and phenotyped, and the heritability of the trait was 0.5, the reliability of predicted genomic breeding values (GEBVs) for individuals in the same full sib family without phenotypes was 0.82. These results were verified by simulation. A deterministic prediction was also derived for random mating populations, where the effective population size is the key parameter determining the effective number of independently segregating loci. If the effective population size is large, a very large number of individuals must be genotyped and phenotyped in order to accurately predict breeding values for unphenotyped individuals from the same population. If the heritability of the trait is 0.3, and N(e)=100, approximately 12474 individuals with genotypes and phenotypes are required in order to predict GEBVs of un-phenotyped individuals in the same population with an accuracy of 0.7 [corrected].