Population-Based Opioid Prescribing and Overdose Deaths in the USA: an Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Rising opioid-related death rates have prompted reductions of opioid prescribing, yet limited data exist on population-level associations between opioid prescribing and opioid-related deaths. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate population-level associations between five opioid prescribing measures and opioid-related deaths. DESIGN: An ecological panel analysis was performed using linear regression models with year and commuting zone fixed effects. PARTICIPANTS: People ≥10 years aggregated into 886 commuting zones, which are geographic regions collectively comprising the entire USA. MAIN MEASURES: Annual opioid prescriptions were measured with IQVIA Real World Longitudinal Prescription Data including 76.5% (2009) to 90.0% (2017) of US prescriptions. Prescription measures included opioid prescriptions per capita, percent of population with ≥1 opioid prescription, percent with high-dose prescription, percent with long-term prescription, and percent with opioid prescriptions from ≥3 prescribers. Outcomes were age- and sex-standardized associations of change in opioid prescriptions with change in deaths involving any opioids, synthetics other than methadone, heroin but not synthetics or methadone, and prescription opioids, but not other opioids. KEY RESULTS: Change in total regional opioid-related deaths was positively correlated with change in regional opioid prescriptions per capita (ß=.110, p<.001), percent with ≥1 opioid prescription (ß=.100, p=.001), and percent with high-dose prescription (ß=.081, p<.001). Change in total regional deaths involving prescription opioids was positively correlated with change in all five opioid prescribing measures. Conversely, change in total regional deaths involving synthetic opioids was negatively correlated with change in percent with long-term opioid prescriptions and percent with ≥3 prescribers, but not for persons ≥45 years. Change in total regional deaths in heroin was not associated with change in any prescription measure. CONCLUSIONS: Regional decreases in opioid prescriptions were associated with declines in overdose deaths involving prescription opioids, but were also associated with increases in deaths involving synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl). Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the analysis.

The impact of civil conflict on infant and child malnutrition, Nigeria, 2013.

The new millennium brought renewed attention to improving the health of women and children. In this same period, direct deaths from conflicts have declined worldwide, but civilian deaths associated with conflicts have increased. Nigeria is among the most conflict-prone countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially recently with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north. This paper uses two data sources, the 2013 Demographic and Health Survey for Nigeria and the Social Conflict Analysis Database, linked by geocode, to study the effect of these conflicts on infant and young child acute malnutrition (or wasting). We show a strong association in 2013 between living close to a conflict zone and acute malnutrition in Nigerian children, with larger effects for rural children than urban children. This is related to the severity of the conflict, measured both in terms of the number of conflict deaths and the length of time the child was exposed to conflict. Undoubtedly, civil conflict is limiting the future prospects of Nigerian children and the country's economic growth. In Nigeria, conflicts in the north are expected to continue with sporadic attacks and continued damaged infrastructure. Thus, Nigerian children, innocent victims of the conflict, will continue to suffer the consequences documented in this study.

Trends in health care financial burdens, 2001 to 2009.

CONTEXT: Over the past decade, health care spending increased faster than GDP and income, and decreasing affordability is cited as contributing to personal bankruptcies and as a reason that some of the nonelderly population is uninsured. We examined the trends in health care affordability over the past decade, measuring the financial burdens associated with health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs and highlighting implications of the Affordable Care Act for the future financial burdens of particular populations. METHODS: We used cross sections of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component (MEPS-HC) from 2001 to 2009. We defined financial burden at the health insurance unit (HIU) level and calculated it as the ratio of expenditures on health care-employer-sponsored insurance coverage (ESI) and private nongroup premiums and out-of-pocket payments-to modified adjusted gross income. FINDINGS: The median health care financial burden grew on average by 2.7% annually and by 21.9% over the period. Using a range of definitions, the fraction of households facing high financial burdens increased significantly. For example, the share of HIUs with health care expenses exceeding 10% of income increased from 35.9% to 44.8%, a 24.8% relative increase. The share of the population in HIUs with health care financial burdens between 2% and 10% fell, and the share with burdens between 10% and 44% rose. CONCLUSIONS: We found a clear trend over the past decade toward an increasing share of household income devoted to health care. The ACA will affect health care spending for subgroups of the population differently. Several groups' burdens will likely decrease, including those becoming eligible for Medicaid or subsidized private insurance and those with expensive medical conditions. Those newly obtaining coverage might increase their health spending relative to income, but they will gain access to care and the ability to spread their expenditures over time, both of which have demonstrable economic value.

Black-White Disparities in Asthma Hospitalizations and ED Visits Among Medicaid-Enrolled Children.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Asthma is a common, potentially serious childhood chronic condition that disproportionately afflicts Black children. Hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for asthma can often be prevented. Nearly half of children with asthma are covered by Medicaid, which should facilitate access to care to manage and treat symptoms. We provide new evidence on racial disparities in asthma hospitalizations and ED visits among Medicaid-enrolled children. METHODS: We used comprehensive Medicaid claims data from the Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System. Our study population included 279 985 Medicaid-enrolled children with diagnosed asthma. We identified asthma hospitalizations and ED visits occurring in 2019. We estimated differences in the odds of asthma hospitalizations and ED visits for non-Hispanic Black versus non-Hispanic white children, adjusting for sex, age, Medicaid eligibility group, Medicaid plan type, state, and rurality. RESULTS: In 2019, among Black children with asthma, 1.2% had an asthma hospitalization and 8.0% had an asthma ED visit compared with 0.5% and 3.4% of white children with a hospitalization and ED visit, respectively. After adjusting for other characteristics, the rates for Black children were more than twice the rates for white children (hospitalization adjusted odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 2.23-2.69; ED adjusted odds ratio 2.42; 95% confidence interval 2.33-2.51). CONCLUSIONS: There are stark racial disparities in asthma hospitalizations and ED visits among Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma. To diminish these disparities, it will be important to implement solutions that address poor quality care, discriminatory treatment in health care settings, and the structural factors that disproportionately expose Black children to asthma triggers and access barriers.

Clarifying sources of geographic differences in Medicare spending.

BACKGROUND: Although geographic differences in Medicare spending are widely considered to be evidence of program inefficiency, policymakers need to understand how differences in beneficiaries' health and personal characteristics and specific geographic factors affect the amount of Medicare spending per beneficiary before formulating policies to reduce geographic differences in spending. METHODS: We used Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys from 2000 through 2002 to examine differences across geographic areas (grouped into quintiles on the basis of Medicare spending per beneficiary over the same period). We estimated multivariate-regression models of individual spending that included demographic and baseline health characteristics, changes in health status, other individual determinants of demand, and area-level measures of the supply of health care resources. Each group of variables was entered into the model sequentially to assess the effect on geographic differences in spending. RESULTS: Unadjusted Medicare spending per beneficiary was 52% higher in geographic regions in the highest spending quintile than in regions in the lowest quintile. After adjustment for demographic and baseline health characteristics and changes in health status, the difference in spending between the highest and lowest quintiles was reduced to 33%. Health status accounted for 29% of the unadjusted geographic difference in per-beneficiary spending; additional adjustment for area-level differences in the supply of medical resources did not further reduce the observed differences between the top and bottom quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers attempting to control Medicare costs by reducing differences in Medicare spending across geographic areas need better information about the specific source of the differences, as well as better methods for adjusting spending levels to account for underlying differences in beneficiaries' health measures.

Opioid Prescribing and Suicide Risk in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: This study estimates associations of regional change in opioid prescribing with total suicide deaths and suicide overdose deaths involving opioids. METHODS: A panel analysis was performed with 2009-2017 U.S. national IQVIA Longitudinal Prescription Database data and National Center for Health Statistics mortality data aggregated into commuting zones (N=886), which together span the United States. Opioid prescription exposures included opioid prescriptions per capita and percentages of patients with any opioid prescription, with high-dose prescriptions (>120 mg of morphine equivalents), with long-term prescriptions (≥60 consecutive days), and with prescriptions from three or more prescribers. Linear regression models were used with year and commuting zone fixed effects. RESULTS: Suicide deaths were significantly positively associated with opioid prescriptions per capita (ß=0.045), having any opioid prescription (ß=0.069), having high-dose prescriptions (ß=0.024), having long-term prescriptions (ß=0.028), and having three or more opioid prescribers (ß=0.046). Similar significant associations were observed between each of the five opioid prescription measures and suicide overdose deaths involving opioids (ß range, 0.029-0.042). However, opioid prescriptions per capita, having any opioid prescription, and having three or more opioid prescribers were each negatively associated with unintentional opioid-related deaths in people in the 10- to 24-year and 25- to 44-year age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective study of U.S. commuting zone-level opioid prescriptions and mortality, regional decreases in opioid prescriptions were consistently associated with declines in total suicide deaths, including suicide overdose deaths involving opioids. For some opioid prescribing measures, negative associations were observed with unintentional overdose deaths involving opioids among younger people. Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the analysis.

Racialized economic segregation and potentially preventable hospitalizations among Medicaid/CHIP-enrolled children.

OBJECTIVE: To examine geographic variation in preventable hospitalizations among Medicaid/CHIP-enrolled children and to test the association between preventable hospitalizations and a novel measure of racialized economic segregation, which captures residential segregation within ZIP codes based on race and income simultaneously. DATA SOURCES: We supplement claims and enrollment data from the Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) representing over 12 million Medicaid/CHIP enrollees in 24 states with data from the Public Health Disparities Geocoding Project measuring racialized economic segregation. STUDY DESIGN: We measure preventable hospitalizations by ZIP code among children. We use logistic regression to estimate the association between ZIP code-level measures of racialized economic segregation and preventable hospitalizations, controlling for sex, age, rurality, eligibility group, managed care plan type, and state. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: We include children ages 0-17 continuously enrolled in Medicaid/CHIP throughout 2018. We use validated algorithms to identify preventable hospitalizations, which account for characteristics of the pediatric population and exclude children with certain underlying conditions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Preventable hospitalizations vary substantially across ZIP codes, and a quarter of ZIP codes have rates exceeding 150 hospitalizations per 100,000 Medicaid-enrolled children per year. Preventable hospitalization rates vary significantly by level of racialized economic segregation: children living in the ZIP codes that have the highest concentration of low-income, non-Hispanic Black residents have adjusted rates of 181 per 100,000 children, compared to 110 per 100,000 for children in ZIP codes that have the highest concentration of high-income, non-Hispanic white residents (p < 0.01). This pattern is driven by asthma-related preventable hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid-enrolled children's risk of preventable hospitalizations depends on where they live, and children in economically and racially segregated neighborhoods-specifically those with higher concentrations of low-income, non-Hispanic Black residents-are at particularly high risk. It will be important to identify and implement Medicaid/CHIP and other policies that increase access to high-quality preventive care and that address structural drivers of children's health inequities.

Potential national and state medical care savings from primary disease prevention.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated national and state-level potential medical care cost savings achievable through modest reductions in the prevalence of several diseases associated with the same lifestyle-related risk factors. METHODS: Using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component data (2003-2005), we estimated the effects on medical spending over time of reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and related conditions amenable to primary prevention by comparing simulated counterfactual morbidity and medical care expenditures to actual disease and expenditure patterns. We produced state-level estimates of spending by using multivariate reweighting techniques. RESULTS: Nationally, we estimated that reducing diabetes and hypertension prevalence by 5% would save approximately $9 billion annually in the near term. With resulting reductions in comorbidities and selected related conditions, savings could rise to approximately $24.7 billion annually in the medium term. Returns were greatest in absolute terms for private payers, but greatest in percentage terms for public payers. State savings varied with demographic makeup and prevailing morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Well-designed interventions that achieve improvements in lifestyle-related risk factors could result in sufficient savings in the short and medium term to substantially offset intervention costs.

Reforming beneficiary cost sharing to improve Medicare performance.

This paper explores options for reforming Medicare cost sharing in an effort to provide better financial protection for those beneficiaries with the greatest health care needs. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), we consider how unified annual deductibles, alternative coinsurance rates, and a limit on out-of-pocket spending would alter program spending, beneficiary cost sharing, and premiums for supplemental coverage. We show that adding an out-of-pocket limit and raising deductibles and coinsurance slightly would provide better safeguards to beneficiaries with high costs than the current Medicare benefit structure. Our estimates also suggest that policies protecting these beneficiaries could be structured in a way that would add little to overall program costs.

Health, Economic Resources and the Work Decisions of Older Men.

We specify a dynamic programming model that addresses the interplay among health, financial resources, and the labor market behavior of men late in their working lives. We model health as a latent variable, for which self reported disability status is an indicator, and allow self-reported disability to be endogenous to labor market behavior. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. While we find large impacts of health on behavior, they are substantially smaller than in models that treat self-reports as exogenous. We also simulate the impacts of several potential reforms to the Social Security program.

Medicare savings programs: analyzing options for expanding eligibility.

The Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs) are designed to provide financial assistance to Medicare beneficiaries who do not qualify for full Medicaid coverage. This paper considers changes in eligibility that would better align MSP program rules with those related to receiving low-income subsidies for the Medicare Part D drug benefit. These changes would make more people eligible for the MSPs and could encourage greater participation; similar changes were incorporated in recently passed legislation. Our analysis, based on 2006 data from the Health and Retirement Study, shows there is a trade-off between making larger numbers of beneficiaries eligible by eliminating resource requirements and better targeting of individuals with greater health care needs by expanding income standards.

The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions and Personal Finance.

Using a novel data set from a major credit bureau, we examine the early effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions on personal finance. We analyze less common events such as personal bankruptcy, and more common occurrences such as medical collection balances, and change in credit scores. We estimate triple-difference models that compare individual outcomes across counties that expanded Medicaid versus counties that did not, and across expansion counties that had more uninsured residents versus those with fewer. Results demonstrate financial improvements in states that expanded their Medicaid programs as measured by improved credit scores, reduced balances past due as a percent of total debt, reduced probability of a medical collection balance of $1,000 or more, reduced probability of having one or more recent medical bills go to collections, reduction in the probability of experiencing a new derogatory balance of any type, reduced probability of incurring a new derogatory balance equal to $1,000 or more, and a reduction in the probability of a new bankruptcy filing.

Weathering, Drugs, and Whack-a-Mole: Fundamental and Proximate Causes of Widening Educational Inequity in U.S. Life Expectancy by Sex and Race, 1990-2015.

Discussion of growing inequity in U.S. life expectancy increasingly focuses on the popularized narrative that it is driven by a surge of "deaths of despair." Does this narrative fit the empirical evidence? Using census and Vital Statistics data, we apply life-table methods to calculate cause-specific years of life lost between ages 25 and 84 by sex and educational rank for non-Hispanic blacks and whites in 1990 and 2015. Drug overdoses do contribute importantly to widening inequity for whites, especially men, but trivially for blacks. The contribution of suicide to growing inequity is unremarkable. Cardiovascular disease, non-lung cancers, and other internal causes are key to explaining growing life expectancy inequity. Results underline the speculative nature of attempts to attribute trends in life-expectancy inequity to an epidemic of despair. They call for continued investigation of the possible weathering effects of tenacious high-effort coping with chronic stressors on the health of marginalized populations.

Health insurance and health at age 65: implications for medical care spending on new Medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the consequences of endogeneity bias on the estimated effect of having health insurance on health at age 63 or 64, just before most people qualify for Medicare, and to simulate the implications for total and public insurance (Medicare and Medicaid) spending on newly enrolled beneficiaries in their first years of Medicare coverage. DATA: The longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey of people who were 55-61 years old in 1992, followed through biannual surveys to age 63-64 or until 2000 (whichever came first), and those who were 66-70 years olds from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, 1992-1998. STUDY DESIGN: Instrumental variable (IV) estimation of a simultaneous equation model of insurance choice and health at age 63-64 as a function of baseline health and sociodemographic characteristics in 1992 and endogenous insurance coverage over the observation period. FINDINGS: Continuous insurance coverage is associated with significantly fewer deaths prior to age 65 and, among those who survive, a significant upward shift in the distribution of health states from fair and poor health with disabilities to good to excellent health. Treating insurance coverage as endogenous increases the magnitude of the estimated effect of having insurance on improved health prior to age 65. The medical spending simulations suggest that if the near-elderly had continuous insurance coverage, average annual medical spending per capita for new Medicare beneficiaries in their first few years of coverage would be slightly lower because of the improvement in health status. In addition, total Medicare and Medicaid spending for new beneficiaries over their first few years of coverage would be about the same or slightly lower, even though more people survive to age 65. CONCLUSIONS: Extending insurance coverage to all Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 would improve health (increase survival and shift people from good-fair-poor health to excellent-very good health) at age 65, and possibly reduce total short-term spending by Medicare and Medicaid for newly eligible Medicare beneficiaries, even though more people would enter the program because of increased survival.

Measuring Recent Apparent Declines In Longevity: The Role Of Increasing Educational Attainment.

Independent researchers have reported an alarming decline in life expectancy after 1990 among US non-Hispanic whites with less than a high school education. However, US educational attainment rose dramatically during the twentieth century; thus, focusing on changes in mortality rates of those not completing high school means looking at a different, shrinking, and increasingly vulnerable segment of the population in each year. We analyzed US data to examine the robustness of earlier findings categorizing education in terms of relative rank in the overall distribution of each birth cohort, instead of by credentials such as high school graduation. Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically. We conclude that widely publicized estimates of worsening mortality rates among non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position are highly sensitive to how educational attainment is classified. However, non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position, especially women, are not sharing in improving life expectancy, and disparities between US blacks and whites are entrenched. Findings underscore the urgency of an agenda to equitably disseminate new medical technologies and to deepen knowledge of social determinants of health and how that knowledge can be applied, to promote the objective of achieving population health equity.

Access to Private Coverage for Children Enrolled in CHIP.

OBJECTIVE: To provide updated information on the potential substitution of public for private coverage among low-income children by examining the type of coverage held by children before they enrolled in Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and exploring the extent to which children covered by CHIP had access to private coverage while they were enrolled. METHODS: We conducted a major household telephone survey in 2012 of enrollees and disenrollees in CHIP in 10 states. We used the survey responses and Medicaid/CHIP administrative data to estimate the coverage distribution of all new enrollees in the 12 months before CHIP enrollment and to identify children who may have had access to employer coverage through one of their parents while enrolled in CHIP. RESULTS: About 13% of new enrollees had any private coverage in the 12 months before enrolling in CHIP, and most were found to have lost that coverage as a result of parental job loss. About 40% of CHIP enrollees had a parent with an employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) policy, but only half reported that the policy could cover the child. Approximately 30% of new enrollees had public coverage during the year before but were uninsured just before enrolling. CONCLUSIONS: Access to private coverage among CHIP enrollees is relatively limited. Furthermore, even when there is potential access to ESI, affordability is a serious concern for parents, making it possible that many children with access to ESI would remain uninsured in the absence of CHIP.

How Well Is CHIP Addressing Health Care Access and Affordability for Children?

OBJECTIVE: We examine how access to care and care experiences under the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) compared to private coverage and being uninsured in 10 states. METHODS: We report on findings from a 2012 survey of CHIP enrollees in 10 states. We examined a range of health care access and use measures among CHIP enrollees. Comparisons of the experiences of established CHIP enrollees to the experiences of uninsured and privately insured children were used to estimate differences in children's health care. RESULTS: Children with CHIP coverage had substantially better access to care across a range of outcomes, other things being equal, particularly compared to those with no coverage. Compared to being uninsured, CHIP enrollees were more likely to have specialty and mental health visits and to receive prescription drugs; and their parents were much more likely to feel confident in meeting the child's health care needs and were less likely to have trouble finding providers. CHIP enrollees were less likely to have unmet needs, but 1 in 4 had at least 1 unmet need. Compared to being privately insured, CHIP enrollees had generally similar health care use and unmet needs. Additionally, CHIP enrollees had lower financial burden related to their health care needs. The findings were generally robust with respect to alternative specifications and subgroup analyses, and they corroborated findings of previous studies. CONCLUSIONS: Enrolling more of the uninsured children who are eligible for CHIP improved their access to a range of care, including specialty and mental health services, and reduced the financial burden of meeting their health care needs; however, we found room for improvement in CHIP enrollees' access to care.

How Well Is CHIP Addressing Oral Health Care Needs and Access for Children?

OBJECTIVE: We examine how access to and use of oral and dental care under the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) compared to private coverage and being uninsured in 10 states. METHODS: We report on findings drawn from a 2012 survey of CHIP enrollees in 10 states. We examined a range of parent-reported dental care access and use measures among CHIP enrollees. Comparisons of the experiences of established CHIP enrollees to the experiences of newly enrolling children who had been uninsured or privately insured were used to estimate the impacts of CHIP on children's oral health and dental care. RESULTS: Most children enrolled in CHIP had a usual source of dental care and had received a dental checkup or cleaning in the past year, and most over age 6 had had sealants placed on their molars. In addition, parents of most CHIP enrollees were aware that CHIP covered dental benefits, and most reported not having trouble finding a dentist to see their child. Even so, 12% of CHIP enrollees had unmet dental care needs. Compared to being uninsured, CHIP enrollees did better across nearly all oral health measures. Compared to being privately insured, CHIP enrollees were more likely to have dental benefits, to have a usual source of dental care, and to have had a dental checkup/cleaning, but they were more likely to have trouble finding a dentist and less likely to say that their child's teeth were in excellent/very good condition. CONCLUSIONS: Enrolling eligible uninsured children in CHIP led to improvements in their access to preventive dental care, as well as reductions in their unmet dental care needs, yet the CHIP program has more work to do to address the oral health problems of children.

Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance.

Over the last 25 years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations.