Novel non-linear models for clinical trial analysis with longitudinal data: A tutorial using SAS for both frequentist and Bayesian methods.

Longitudinal data from clinical trials are commonly analyzed using mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) when the time variable is categorical or linear mixed-effects models (ie, random effects model) when the time variable is continuous. In these models, statistical inference is typically based on the absolute difference in the adjusted mean change (for categorical time) or the rate of change (for continuous time). Previously, we proposed a novel approach: modeling the percentage reduction in disease progression associated with the treatment relative to the placebo decline using proportional models. This concept of proportionality provides an innovative and flexible method for simultaneously modeling different cohorts, multivariate endpoints, and jointly modeling continuous and survival endpoints. Through simulated data, we demonstrate the implementation of these models using SAS procedures in both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we introduce a novel method for implementing MMRM models (ie, analysis of response profile) using the nlmixed procedure.

Statistical considerations when estimating time-saving treatment effects in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.

INTRODUCTION: Estimating treatment effects as time savings in disease progression may be more easily interpretable than assessing the absolute difference or a percentage reduction. In this study, we investigate the statistical considerations of the existing method for estimating time savings and propose alternative complementary methods. METHODS: We propose five alternative methods to estimate the time savings from different perspectives. These methods are applied to simulated clinical trial data that mimic or modify the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes progression trajectories observed in the Clarity AD lecanemab trial. RESULTS: Our study demonstrates that the proposed methods can generate more precise estimates by considering two crucial factors: (1) the absolute difference between treatment arms, and (2) the observed progression rate in the treatment arm. DISCUSSION: Quantifying treatment effects as time savings in disease progression offers distinct advantages. To provide comprehensive estimations, it is important to use various methods. HIGHLIGHTS: We explore the statistical considerations of the current method for estimating time savings. We proposed alternative methods that provide time savings estimations based on the observed absolute differences. By using various methods, a more comprehensive estimation of time savings can be achieved.

Examining amyloid reduction as a surrogate endpoint through latent class analysis using clinical trial data for dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing evidence suggests that amyloid reduction could serve as a plausible surrogate endpoint for clinical and cognitive efficacy. The double-blind phase 3 DIAN-TU-001 trial tested clinical and cognitive declines with increasing doses of solanezumab or gantenerumab. METHODS: We used latent class (LC) analysis on data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trials Unit 001 trial to test amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) reduction as a potential surrogate biomarker. RESULTS: LC analysis categorized participants into three classes: amyloid no change, amyloid reduction, and amyloid growth, based on longitudinal amyloid Pittsburgh compound B PET standardized uptake value ratio data. The amyloid-no-change class was at an earlier disease stage for amyloid amounts and dementia. Despite similar baseline characteristics, the amyloid-reduction class exhibited reductions in the annual decline rates compared to the amyloid-growth class across multiple biomarker, clinical, and cognitive outcomes. DISCUSSION: LC analysis indicates that amyloid reduction is associated with improved clinical outcomes and supports its use as a surrogate biomarker in clinical trials. HIGHLIGHTS: We used latent class (LC) analysis to test amyloid reduction as a surrogate biomarker. Despite similar baseline characteristics, the amyloid-reduction class exhibited remarkably better outcomes compared to the amyloid-growth class across multiple measures. LC analysis proves valuable in testing amyloid reduction as a surrogate biomarker in clinical trials lacking significant treatment effects.

Presenilin-1 mutation position influences amyloidosis, small vessel disease, and dementia with disease stage.

INTRODUCTION: Amyloidosis, including cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and markers of small vessel disease (SVD) vary across dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease (DIAD) presenilin-1 (PSEN1) mutation carriers. We investigated how mutation position relative to codon 200 (pre-/postcodon 200) influences these pathologic features and dementia at different stages. METHODS: Individuals from families with known PSEN1 mutations (n = 393) underwent neuroimaging and clinical assessments. We cross-sectionally evaluated regional Pittsburgh compound B-positron emission tomography uptake, magnetic resonance imaging markers of SVD (diffusion tensor imaging-based white matter injury, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and microhemorrhages), and cognition. RESULTS: Postcodon 200 carriers had lower amyloid burden in all regions but worse markers of SVD and worse Clinical Dementia Rating® scores compared to precodon 200 carriers as a function of estimated years to symptom onset. Markers of SVD partially mediated the mutation position effects on clinical measures. DISCUSSION: We demonstrated the genotypic variability behind spatiotemporal amyloidosis, SVD, and clinical presentation in DIAD, which may inform patient prognosis and clinical trials. HIGHLIGHTS: Mutation position influences Aß burden, SVD, and dementia. PSEN1 pre-200 group had stronger associations between Aß burden and disease stage. PSEN1 post-200 group had stronger associations between SVD markers and disease stage. PSEN1 post-200 group had worse dementia score than pre-200 in late disease stage. Diffusion tensor imaging-based SVD markers mediated mutation position effects on dementia in the late stage.

T1 and FLAIR signal intensities are related to tau pathology in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease.

Carriers of mutations responsible for dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease provide a unique opportunity to study potential imaging biomarkers. Biomarkers based on routinely acquired clinical MR images, could supplement the extant invasive or logistically challenging) biomarker studies. We used 1104 longitudinal MR, 324 amyloid beta, and 87 tau positron emission tomography imaging sessions from 525 participants enrolled in the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Observational Study to extract novel imaging metrics representing the mean (µ) and standard deviation (σ) of standardized image intensities of T1-weighted and Fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MR scans. There was an exponential decrease in FLAIR-µ in mutation carriers and an increase in FLAIR and T1 signal heterogeneity (T1-σ and FLAIR-σ) as participants approached the symptom onset in both supramarginal, the right postcentral and right superior temporal gyri as well as both caudate nuclei, putamina, thalami, and amygdalae. After controlling for the effect of regional atrophy, FLAIR-µ decreased and T1-σ and FLAIR-σ increased with increasing amyloid beta and tau deposition in numerous cortical regions. In symptomatic mutation carriers and independent of the effect of regional atrophy, tau pathology demonstrated a stronger relationship with image intensity metrics, compared with amyloid pathology. We propose novel MR imaging intensity-based metrics using standard clinical T1 and FLAIR images which strongly associates with the progression of pathology in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease. We suggest that tau pathology may be a key driver of the observed changes in this cohort of patients.

Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities in the DIAN-TU-001 Trial of Gantenerumab and Solanezumab: Lessons from a Trial in Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of participants with amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) in a trial of gantenerumab or solanezumab in dominantly inherited Alzheimer disease (DIAD). METHODS: 142 DIAD mutation carriers received either gantenerumab SC (n = 52), solanezumab IV (n = 50), or placebo (n = 40). Participants underwent assessments with the Clinical Dementia Rating® (CDR®), neuropsychological testing, CSF biomarkers, ß-amyloid positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to monitor ARIA. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses evaluated potential ARIA-related risk factors. RESULTS: Eleven participants developed ARIA-E, including 3 with mild symptoms. No ARIA-E was reported under solanezumab while gantenerumab was associated with ARIA-E compared to placebo (odds ratio [OR] = 9.1, confidence interval [CI][1.2, 412.3]; p = 0.021). Under gantenerumab, APOE-ɛ4 carriers were more likely to develop ARIA-E (OR = 5.0, CI[1.0, 30.4]; p = 0.055), as were individuals with microhemorrhage at baseline (OR = 13.7, CI[1.2, 163.2]; p = 0.039). No ARIA-E was observed at the initial 225 mg/month gantenerumab dose, and most cases were observed at doses >675 mg. At first ARIA-E occurrence, all ARIA-E participants were amyloid-PET+, 60% were CDR >0, 60% were past their estimated year to symptom onset, and 60% had also incident ARIA-H. Most ARIA-E radiologically resolved after dose adjustment and developing ARIA-E did not significantly increase odds of trial discontinuation. ARIA-E was more frequently observed in the occipital lobe (90%). ARIA-E severity was associated with age at time of ARIA-E. INTERPRETATION: In DIAD, solanezumab was not associated with ARIA. Gantenerumab dose over 225 mg increased ARIA-E risk, with additional risk for individuals APOE-ɛ4(+) or with microhemorrhage. ARIA-E was reversible on MRI in most cases, generally asymptomatic, without additional risk for trial discontinuation. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:729-744.

Longitudinal head-to-head comparison of 11C-PiB and 18F-florbetapir PET in a Phase 2/3 clinical trial of anti-amyloid-ß monoclonal antibodies in dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease.

PURPOSE: Pittsburgh Compound-B (11C-PiB) and 18F-florbetapir are amyloid-ß (Aß) positron emission tomography (PET) radiotracers that have been used as endpoints in Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of anti-Aß monoclonal antibodies. However, comparing drug effects between and within trials may become complicated if different Aß radiotracers were used. To study the consequences of using different Aß radiotracers to measure Aß clearance, we performed a head-to-head comparison of 11C-PiB and 18F-florbetapir in a Phase 2/3 clinical trial of anti-Aß monoclonal antibodies. METHODS: Sixty-six mutation-positive participants enrolled in the gantenerumab and placebo arms of the first Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trials Unit clinical trial (DIAN-TU-001) underwent both 11C-PiB and 18F-florbetapir PET imaging at baseline and during at least one follow-up visit. For each PET scan, regional standardized uptake value ratios (SUVRs), regional Centiloids, a global cortical SUVR, and a global cortical Centiloid value were calculated. Longitudinal changes in SUVRs and Centiloids were estimated using linear mixed models. Differences in longitudinal change between PET radiotracers and between drug arms were estimated using paired and Welch two sample t-tests, respectively. Simulated clinical trials were conducted to evaluate the consequences of some research sites using 11C-PiB while other sites use 18F-florbetapir for Aß PET imaging. RESULTS: In the placebo arm, the absolute rate of longitudinal change measured by global cortical 11C-PiB SUVRs did not differ from that of global cortical 18F-florbetapir SUVRs. In the gantenerumab arm, global cortical 11C-PiB SUVRs decreased more rapidly than global cortical 18F-florbetapir SUVRs. Drug effects were statistically significant across both Aß radiotracers. In contrast, the rates of longitudinal change measured in global cortical Centiloids did not differ between Aß radiotracers in either the placebo or gantenerumab arms, and drug effects remained statistically significant. Regional analyses largely recapitulated these global cortical analyses. Across simulated clinical trials, type I error was higher in trials where both Aß radiotracers were used versus trials where only one Aß radiotracer was used. Power was lower in trials where 18F-florbetapir was primarily used versus trials where 11C-PiB was primarily used. CONCLUSION: Gantenerumab treatment induces longitudinal changes in Aß PET, and the absolute rates of these longitudinal changes differ significantly between Aß radiotracers. These differences were not seen in the placebo arm, suggesting that Aß-clearing treatments may pose unique challenges when attempting to compare longitudinal results across different Aß radiotracers. Our results suggest converting Aß PET SUVR measurements to Centiloids (both globally and regionally) can harmonize these differences without losing sensitivity to drug effects. Nonetheless, until consensus is achieved on how to harmonize drug effects across radiotracers, and since using multiple radiotracers in the same trial may increase type I error, multisite studies should consider potential variability due to different radiotracers when interpreting Aß PET biomarker data and, if feasible, use a single radiotracer for the best results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01760005. Registered 31 December 2012. Retrospectively registered.

Accelerated longitudinal changes and ordering of Alzheimer disease biomarkers across the adult lifespan.

The temporal evolutions and relative orderings of Alzheimer disease biomarkers, including CSF amyloid-ß42 (Aß42), Aß40, total tau (Tau) and phosphorylated tau181 (pTau181), standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) from the molecular imaging of cerebral fibrillar amyloid-ß with PET using the 11C-Pittsburgh Compound-B (PiB), MRI-based hippocampal volume and cortical thickness and cognition have been hypothesized but not yet fully tested with longitudinal data for all major biomarker modalities among cognitively normal individuals across the adult lifespan starting from 18 years. By leveraging a large harmonized database from 8 biomarker studies with longitudinal data from 2609 participants in cognition, 873 in MRI biomarkers, 519 in PET PiB imaging and 475 in CSF biomarkers for a median follow-up of 5-6 years, we estimated the longitudinal trajectories of all major Alzheimer disease biomarkers as functions of baseline age that spanned from 18 to 103 years, located the baseline age window at which the longitudinal rates of change accelerated and further examined possible modifying effects of apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. We observed that participants 18-45 years at baseline exhibited learning effects on cognition and unexpected directions of change on CSF and PiB biomarkers. The earliest acceleration of longitudinal change occurred for CSF Aß42 and Aß42/Aß40 ratio (with an increase) and for Tau, and pTau181 (with a decrease) at the next baseline age interval of 45-50 years, followed by an accelerated increase for PiB SUVR at the baseline age of 50-55 years and an accelerated decrease for hippocampal volume at the baseline age of 55-60 years and finally by an accelerated decline for cortical thickness and cognition at the baseline age of 65-70 years. Another acceleration in the rate of change occurred at the baseline age of 65-70 years for Aß42/Aß40 ratio, Tau, pTau181, PiB SUVR and hippocampal volume. Accelerated declines in hippocampal volume and cognition continued after 70 years. For participants 18-45 years at baseline, significant increases in Aß42 and Aß42/Aß40 ratio and decreases in PiB SUVR occurred in APOE ɛ4 non-carriers but not carriers. After age 45 years, APOE ɛ4 carriers had greater magnitudes than non-carriers in the rates of change for all CSF biomarkers, PiB SUVR and cognition. Our results characterize the temporal evolutions and relative orderings of Alzheimer disease biomarkers across the adult lifespan and the modification effect of APOE ɛ4. These findings may better inform the design of prevention trials on Alzheimer disease.

Comparing statistical methods in assessing the prognostic effect of biomarker variability on time-to-event clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In recent years there is increasing interest in modeling the effect of early longitudinal biomarker data on future time-to-event or other outcomes. Sometimes investigators are also interested in knowing whether the variability of biomarkers is independently predictive of clinical outcomes. This question in most applications is addressed via a two-stage approach where summary statistics such as variance are calculated in the first stage and then used in models as covariates to predict clinical outcome in the second stage. The objective of this study is to compare the relative performance of various methods in estimating the effect of biomarker variability. METHODS: A joint model and 4 different two-stage approaches (naïve, landmark analysis, time-dependent Cox model, and regression calibration) were illustrated using data from a large multi-center randomized phase III trial, the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), regarding the association between the variability of intraocular pressure (IOP) and the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). The model performance was also evaluated in terms of bias using simulated data from the joint model of longitudinal IOP and time to POAG. The parameters for simulation were chosen after OHTS data, and the association between longitudinal and survival data was introduced via underlying, unobserved, and error-free parameters including subject-specific variance. RESULTS: In the OHTS data, joint modeling and two-stage methods reached consistent conclusion that IOP variability showed no significant association with the risk of POAG. In the simulated data with no association between IOP variability and time-to-POAG, all the two-stage methods (except the naïve approach) provided a reliable estimation. When a moderate effect of IOP variability on POAG was imposed, all the two-stage methods underestimated the true association as compared with the joint modeling while the model-based two-stage method (regression calibration) resulted in the least bias. CONCLUSION: Regression calibration and joint modelling are the preferred methods in assessing the effect of biomarker variability. Two-stage methods with sample-based measures should be used with caution unless there exists a relatively long series of longitudinal measurements and/or strong effect size (NCT00000125).

Relative efficiency of equal versus unequal cluster sizes in cluster randomized trials with a small number of clusters.

To calculate sample sizes in cluster randomized trials (CRTs), the cluster sizes are usually assumed to be identical across all clusters for simplicity. However, equal cluster sizes are not guaranteed in practice, especially when the number of clusters is limited. Therefore, it is important to understand the relative efficiency (RE) of equal versus unequal cluster sizes when designing CRTs with a limited number of clusters. In this paper, we are interested in the RE of two bias-corrected sandwich estimators of the treatment effect in the Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) models for CRTs with a small number of clusters. Specifically, we derive the RE of two bias-corrected sandwich estimators for binary, continuous, or count data in CRTs under the assumption of an exchangeable working correlation structure. We consider different scenarios of cluster size distributions and investigate RE performance through simulation studies. We conclude that the number of clusters could be increased by as much as 42% to compensate for efficiency loss due to unequal cluster sizes. Finally, we propose an algorithm of increasing the number of clusters when the coefficient of variation of cluster sizes is known and unknown.